Demographic Transition and World Population Growth

Current Stats

• Most of the world is currently in either Stage 2 or Stage 3 of the DTM

• Few countries are in Stage 4• Only a few are likely to make the ascension

into Stage 4 in the near future.

Stage 4: How did they get here?

• Two major events were the catalyst for ascension into Stage 4– A drop in the CDR due to technological

advancement. – A drop in the CBR due to changes in social

customs and norms. – This can be challenging to replicate outside of

European and North American countries

Upward Mobility

• For the industrialized world, the drop in CDR, which lead to movement from Stage 1 to Stage 2, is characterized by the Industrial revolution. – This lead to an increase in wealth, which allowed

more monies for research and development into cause and cures for diseases.

U.M cont.

• For developing countries they did not experience the benefit of internal wealth and advancements in medical research but rather were the benefactors of such by developed countries.– Medical advancements in MDC’s trickled down to

LDC’s which helped to quickly lower CDR (medical revolution in the mid-twentieth century)

Continued Change

• As LDC’s have now mirrored the first major event in population change (lowering the death rate) they are encouraged to mirror the second (lowering birth rates)

• This change in the family structure is much more complicated and intimate for individuals and families.

Causes for Population Increase

• Medical Advancement• Quantity and quality of food• Ethnic and religious issues• Economic issues

Medical Advancement

• Through medical advancement there is a significant decline in death rates

• When death rates decrease, population grows. (as long as birth rates stay constant)

Quantity and Quality of Food

• Advances in agricultural technology have helped to feed billions of people around the world

• Triple-cropping has helped increase production of rice in Asia which is a high calorie food that provides energy and sustenance for the billions who live there.

Ethnic and Religious Issues

• Many cultures forbid the use of contraceptives or any form of birth control

• Some cultures also believe that if you are infected with HIV and have sex with a virgin you will be cured, ultimately spreading the disease and possibly impregnating her.

Economic Issues

• If the economy of a country is based on an agricultural society it is likely that that country will experience high birth rates.

• Economies based on manufacturing and services are more likely to have smaller family units and live in urban areas.

Cause of Population Decline

• Natural hazards and disasters, including famines or plagues

• War or political turmoil • Economic issues

Natural Hazards and Disasters

• Large populations are clustered in areas of the world ripe for natural disasters such as:– Earthquakes: Japan, California, Pakistan, etc.– Tsunamis, tornados, blizzards- although these

account for small percentage world wide– Famines/Plagues- mass starvation because of

natural disaster or civil war (Sudan and Ethiopia)

War or Political Turmoil

• Mass exodus like in Cambodia in 1970’s, Sudan in 2004

• Refugees of Thailand, Rwanda, Uganda, Sudan • World War and Civil War, mass loss of life.

Economic Issues

• Migration due to job loss