Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:

The Demographic Transition

Issues Population growth Development

Population Concepts

Classic model of demographic transition Patterns of changing birth and death

rates

Tools Line graphs Research and analysis

Objectives

To understand the classic demographic transition (DT) model

To explain assumptions and limitations of the classic DT model

To construct graphs of contemporary demographic change

To explain contemporary demographic patterns in the context of the classic DT model

What is the Demographic Transition? The shift from highhigh to low mortality and fertility Based on the experience of Western Europe Began by Warren Thompson in 1929 Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein A sign of socio-economic progress?

The Classic Demographic Transition

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Time

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Examine the Model

A Model is … a representation of some phenomenon of the real

world made in order to facilitate an understanding of its workings

a simplified and generalized version of real events, from which the incidental detail has been removed

Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:

The Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition in Sweden

and Mexico

Sources: B.R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics 1750-1970 (1976): table B6; Council of Europe, Recent Demographic Developments in Europe 2001 (2001): tables T3.1 and T4.1; CELADE, Boletin demografico 69 (2002): tables 4 and 7; Francisco Alba-Hernandez, La poblacion de Mexico (1976): 14; and UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (2003): 326.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

SwedenBirth Rate

Death Rate

MexicoBirth Rate

Death Rate

Births/Deaths per 1,000

1750

Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:

The Demographic Transition

How useful is the classic model of demographic transition in today’s world?

Assignment: Construct a graph showing the birth and death

rates for one of four assigned countries.

Is the Demographic Transition Model Still Useful?

How well does the classic model work? Is it a useful framework for developing

countries? Do developing countries need to share the

experiences of Europe and the United States? Is the socioeconomic change experienced by

industrialized countries a prerequisite or a consequence of demographic transition?

Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:

The Demographic TransitionActivities:

1. Explaining Population Change: Graph changing birth & death rates in classic model (England) Graph & compare rates for Sweden & Mexico

2. Global Population Patterns and Demographic Transitions: Calculate natural increase by continent & country Compare demographic with economic indicators

3. Can an Old Model Explain New Trends? Compare national population patterns to model

Making Population Real Lesson Plans Population Fundamentals – Building a Foundation

Populations in the Path of Natural Hazards

The Demographic Transition –

A Contemporary Look at a Classic Model

HIV/AIDS and Contemporary Population Dynamics

Population Policy – Progress Since Cairo

People on the Move

Global Migration Patterns

Population Reference Bureau

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