dennis blackmore's market update

8/14/2019 Dennis Blackmore's Market Update

1/42

Current prices for homes on the mark

Trends in priciCurrent levels of supply and dema

Value metri

market updat

Dennis Blackmore'

VIRGINIA BEAC

2010-01-

Report for the week

Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved

Creed Realty Virginia Bea

www.DennisBlackmore.com - [email protected]

Presented by Dennis Blackmo

(757) 343-49

www.altosresearch.com
http://www.altosresearch.com/http://www.altosresearch.com/


2/42

Dennis Blackmore | www.DennisBlackmore.com | (757) 343-4949 [email protected]

The median single family home price

in VIRGINIA BEACH this week is

$349,900. The 2234 homes have been

on the market for an average of 200

days.

THIS WEEK

Most Expensive Listing

Least Expensive Listing

Median List Price

Average List Price

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Total Inventory

$ 349,900

$ 510,673

$ 9,985,000

$ 59,000

2234

200Average Days on Market

Asking Price per Square Foot $ 159

135Absorbed This Week*

Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 31 %

Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 13 %

Percent Flip (price increased) 4 %

City Overview VIRGINIA BEACH

0.25 - 0.50 acre

Altos Research Value Statistics

Market Action Index

Median Number of Bedrooms

Median Number of Bathrooms

Median House Size (sq ft)

Median Lot Size

Median Age

2,263

3.9

3.0

26

14Cold! Buyer's Market

Altos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supplyrelative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favorthe seller. See the section below for full details.

Even though the days-on-market is

trending higher, so is the Market ActionIndex at these inventory levels,

providing a neutral outlook for the

market.

To get a tightly targeted understanding

of homes in the market, we break eachlocale into quartiles. Each quartile is

25% of the homes listed.

QUARTILES

Characteristics per Quartile

Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend

Trend Key

No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend

Bed BathMed.Sqft.

Med.Age Inven. New

Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart

Avg.DoM

*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons.Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which propertiessold.

Most expensive 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre3,580 5.0 4.5 15 558 16 44$ 792,5001 269

Upper-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre2,621 4.0 3.0 8 558 33 18$ 425,0002 203

Lower-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre2,067 4.0 3.0 23 559 39 35$ 299,0003 168

Least expensive 25% of homes1,453 3.0 2.0 34 559 54 388,001 - 10,000

sq ft$ 217,0004 161

We'll refer to the quartiles in the trend

graphs below.

Dennis Blackmore's Market Update for VIRGINIA BEACH


3/42


PRICE

Despite this week's down tic, price

trends have generally been moving up

lately.

QUARTILE PRICES

Price weakness is evident across the

board. All four quartiles have been in

price decline in recent weeks. Look to

the Market Action Index as a leading

indicator of the bottom of the market.

Often, we find insights by watching

pricing trends within the quartile

segments.



4/42


Despite recently falling prices, the price

per square foot has stayed reasonably

flat. This implies that there's a portion

of the market being priced at a

premium. You can investigate this

condition in the quartile details.

PRICE AND VALUE

INVENTORY

Inventory has been relatively steady

around these levels in recent weeks.



5/42


The VIRGINIA BEACH market is

currently quite strongly in the Buyer's

Market zone (below 30). The 90-day

Market Action Index stands at 14. With

several months of inventory available

at the current sales rate, buyers should

find ample choice.

Home sales have been exceeding new

inventory for several weeks. However

because of excess inventory, prices hav

not yet stopped falling. Should the sales

trend continue, expect prices to level ofsoon and potentially to resume their

climb from there. Watch prices as the

market transitions from a Buyer's

market to a Seller's market.

The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a

statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.

An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a Seller's Market (a.k.a. "Hot Market")because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market willtypically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "ColdMarket") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months atthe current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.

MARKET ACTION INDEXResidential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can becharacterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the indexfalls into the Buyers Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downwardcorrection.

Not surprisingly given the overall

Market Action Index, all quartiles are in

the Buyer's Market zone with several

months of inventory given the current

rate of demand for homes in the

quartile. Watch the quartile for change

before the overall market shifts. Often

one end of the market (e.g. the low end)

will improve and signal a strengtheningmarket before the whole group changes

The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my pricerange?"

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES



6/42


DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)

The properties have been on the

market for an average of 200 days. Half

of the listings have come newly on the

market in the past 147 or so days.

DOM PER QUARTILE

It is not uncommon for the higher

priced homes in an area to take longer

to sell than those in the lower

quartiles.



7/42


23464Neighborhood DetailVIRGINIA BEACH



Median List Price

Average List Price


Total Inventory

$ 279,900

$ 299,895

$ 614,000

$ 149,000

316



25Absorbed This Week


in VIRGINIA BEACH 23464 this week

is $279,900.

THIS WEEK




Median Lot Size

Median Age

2,046

4.0

3.0

28Altos Research Value Statistics

0.25 - 0.50 acre

Market Action Index 15Cold! Buyer's Market

Inventory has been lightening lately

and the Market Action Index has been

trending up. Though days-on-market i

increasing, these are mildly positiveindications for the market.

PRICE

In the last few weeks we've seen prices

in this zip code bouncing around this

plateau. Look for a persistent down-

shift in the Market Action Index beforewe see prices deviate from these levels.



8/42


PRICE PER QUARTILE

Not surprisingly, given the condition of

the overall market, all quartiles have

shown price strength in recent weeks.

All have been increasing in price lately

Watch for a persistent decline in the

Market Action Index as a leadingindicator for the top of the market.

QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile

Bed BathMed. SqftMed.Age Inven. New


Avg.DoM



Lower-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre1,890 4.0 3.0 29 79 3 9$ 259,9003 166


sq ft$ 212,9004 154

The market plateau is seen across the

price and value. The price per square

foot and median list price have both

been reasonably stagnant. Watch the

Market Action Index for persistent

changes as a leading indicator before

the market moves from these levels.

PRICE AND VALUE



9/42


INVENTORY

Inventory has been falling in recent

weeks with 316 properties available this

week. Note that declining inventory

alone does not signal a strengthening

market. Look to the Market Action

Index to gauge whether buyer interestis falling with the available supply.

The VIRGINIA BEACH 23464 is quite

strongly in the Buyer's Market zone.

The 90-day Market Action Index stands

at 15. With several months of inventoryavailable at the current sales rate,

buyers should find ample choice.

MARKET ACTION INDEX


Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in theBuyer's Market zone with several


levels of demand. Watch the quartiles

for changes before the overall market

shifts.



10/42


DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the marke

for an average of 177 days. Half of the

listings have come newly on the market

in the past 119 or so days. Watch the 90

day DOM trend for signals of a changin

market.

DAYS ON MARKET

It is not uncommon for

the higher priced homes in an area

(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to

sell than those in the lower quartiles.

1Dennis Blackmore's Market Update for VIRGINIA BEACH


11/42





Median List Price

Average List Price


Total Inventory

$ 240,000

$ 253,423

$ 939,000

$ 104,400

151



7Absorbed This Week



is $240,000.

THIS WEEK




Median Lot Size

Median Age

1,657

3.0

2.0


0.25 - 0.50 acre


Even though the days-on-market is

trending higher, so is the Market Action

Index at these inventory levels,

providing a neutral outlook for themarket.

PRICE

While this week the median price in

this zip code didn't fluctuate much, we

are relatively close to the market's

high-water mark. Watch for persistentdownward shift in the Market Action

Index into the Buyer's zone as a leading

indicator of the price strength

subsiding.



12/42


13/42


INVENTORY












MARKET ACTION INDEX






shifts.



14/42





in the past 98 or so days. Watch the 90-


market.

DAYS ON MARKET







15/42


16/42


PRICE PER QUARTILE

In the quartile market segments, we see

prices in this zip code without strong

directional indication lately. Quartiles 2

and 4 are mixed, while Quartile 3 is up

and Quartile 1 is down. Look to

persistent shifts in the Market ActionIndex as a leading indicator for strong

moves (up or down) in the market as a

whole.




Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes3,888 4.0 4.2 18 10 1 0$ 797,0001 275Not Avail

Upper-middle 25% of homes2.5 - 5.0 acres3,371 4.0 4.5 10 10 0 2$ 557,5002 256

Lower-middle 25% of homes10.0 - 20.0acres2,521 4.0 3.0 23 11 1 1$ 380,0003 167

Least expensive 25% of homes1.0 - 2.5 acres1,703 3.0 2.0 33 11 2 3$ 285,0004 158

This is a market where watching the

value metrics (like price per square

foot) can provide insight that you don't

get at first glance. Despite the fact that

home prices are rising fairly

consistently, the price per square foot o

homes listed is declining. Often this can

be attributed to new and remodeled

homes on the market. Buyers in the

area are paying more but also getting

more for their money.

PRICE AND VALUE



17/42


INVENTORY












MARKET ACTION INDEX






shifts.



18/42







market.

DAYS ON MARKET







19/42





Median List Price

Average List Price


Total Inventory

$ 449,000

$ 516,191

$ 2,499,000

$ 159,000

605






is $449,000.

THIS WEEK




Median Lot Size

Median Age

2,732

4.0

3.0


0.25 - 0.50 acre


Days-on-market has been trending up

recently but the Market Action Index

and inventory levels are basically flat

and not providing strong indications fothe market.

PRICE

Again this week in this zip code we see

a downward notch for prices. We

continue to pull back from the market's

highs. At this point, we will be lookingfor a persistent upward shift in the

Market Action Index as a leading

indicator for a trough in prices.



20/42


PRICE PER QUARTILE


most of the market for this zip code

showing price weakness lately. Notice

however, that Quartile 4 at the low-end

of the market is still on an up-trend.

Often this condition happens in marketwhere demand has fallen (for example,

due to micro-location variables) but

supply is still relatively short. Buyers

are focusing on the lowest price homes

in the area.




Avg.DoM



Lower-middle 25% of homes2,548 4.0 3.0 3 151 10 54,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 380,9003 181


sq ft$ 277,9504 164

The market's downward trends are

shared across both price and value.

People are recently placing less value

on homes (you can see the recent

declines in price per square foot as

evidence.) Look for significant changes

in the Market Action Index as a

precursor to price and value changes,

possibly as inflection points for good

investment opportunities.

PRICE AND VALUE



21/42


INVENTORY

Inventory has been steady around thes

levels in recent weeks with 605

properties currently available.






MARKET ACTION INDEX






shifts.



22/42







market.

DAYS ON MARKET







23/42





Median List Price

Average List Price


Total Inventory

$ 382,450

$ 556,755

$ 9,800,000

$ 135,000

212






is $382,450.

THIS WEEK




Median Lot Size

Median Age

2,397

3.8

3.0


0.25 - 0.50 acre


Inventory and days-on-market are

climbing, while the Market Action Inde

has been flat recently. The trends point

to a weakening market.

PRICE


trends in this zip code have generally

been moving up lately. We are below

the market's high point, and we'llinvestigate the Market Action Index

later on to see if we expect this week's

blip to become a downward trend.



24/42


PRICE PER QUARTILE


prices in this zip code have settled at a

price plateau across the board. Prices in

all four quartiles are basically mixed.

Look for a persistent shift (up or down)

in the Market Action Index before pricemove from these current levels.




Avg.DoM


Upper-middle 25% of homes2,871 4.0 3.0 16 53 3 28,001 - 10,000

sq ft$ 469,9002 240

Lower-middle 25% of homes2,259 4.0 3.0 28 53 1 5$ 330,0003 169Not Avail

Least expensive 25% of homes1,400 3.0 2.0 53 53 6 4$ 210,0004 181Not Avail

In a market where prices are rising

fairly consistently, price per square foo

is essentially flat. This often implies

that new homes coming on the market

are pricier, and also larger than older

homes. As a result the value one can

buy stays the same.

PRICE AND VALUE



25/42


INVENTORY












MARKET ACTION INDEX






shifts.



26/42


27/42





Median List Price

Average List Price


Total Inventory

$ 350,000

$ 637,770

$ 9,985,000

$ 125,000

291






is $350,000.

THIS WEEK




Median Lot Size

Median Age

2,211

3.9

3.0


0.25 - 0.50 acre


Inventory and days-on-market are

climbing, while the Market Action Inde

has been flat recently. The trends point

to a weakening market.

PRICE


trends in this zip code have generally

been moving up lately. We are below

the market's high point, and we'llinvestigate the Market Action Index

later on to see if we expect this week's

blip to become a downward trend.



28/42


PRICE PER QUARTILE


the market's price weakness evident

across the board. All four quartiles hav

been in price decline in recent weeks.

Look to the Market Action Index as a

leading indicator of the bottom of themarket.




Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes4,180 5.0 4.5 21 72 1 38,001 - 10,000

sq ft$ 1,080,0001 252


Lower-middle 25% of homes0.50 - 1.0 acre1,932 4.0 3.0 21 73 6 2$ 299,9003 178


sq ft$ 225,0004 147

The market appears to be placing an

increasing premium on homes. When

list prices and price per square foot

consistently increase in tandem, as

they're doing now, you can often find

short-term investment opportunities.

Watch the Market Action Index for

persistent changes as a leading

indicator for these trends to flatten or

drop.

PRICE AND VALUE



29/42


INVENTORY












MARKET ACTION INDEX






shifts.



30/42







market.

DAYS ON MARKET







31/42





Median List Price

Average List Price


Total Inventory

$ 249,900

$ 270,999

$ 620,250

$ 59,000

141






is $249,900.

THIS WEEK




Median Lot Size

Median Age

1,843

3.8

2.9


0.50 - 1.0 acre






PRICE

In this zip code this week saw relatively

little price change from last week.

However, we continue to demonstrate a

nice up trend over the last severalweeks.



32/42


PRICE PER QUARTILE



across the board. All four quartiles hav

been in price decline in recent weeks.

Look to the Market Action Index as a

leading indicator of the bottom of themarket.




Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes2,548 4.0 3.0 9 35 2 1$ 349,9001 214Not Avail

Upper-middle 25% of homes2,083 4.0 3.0 17 35 1 1$ 285,4002 154Not Avail

Lower-middle 25% of homes1,587 3.0 2.0 31 35 4 3$ 232,0003 134Not Avail

Least expensive 25% of homes0.50 - 1.0 acre1,432 3.0 2.0 30 36 3 5$ 184,9504 131










drop.

PRICE AND VALUE



33/42


INVENTORY












MARKET ACTION INDEX






shifts.



34/42







market.

DAYS ON MARKET







35/42





Median List Price

Average List Price


Total Inventory

$ 259,900

$ 449,311

$ 6,800,000

$ 133,900

238






is $259,900.

THIS WEEK




Median Lot Size

Median Age

1,906

4.0

3.0


0.50 - 1.0 acre






PRICE

In the last few weeks we've seen prices

in this zip code bouncing around this

plateau. Look for a persistent down-

shift in the Market Action Index beforewe see prices deviate from these levels.



36/42


PRICE PER QUARTILE


most of the market for this zip code

showing price weakness lately. Notice

however, that Quartile 4 at the low-end

of the market is still on an up-trend.

Often this condition happens in marketwhere demand has fallen (for example,

due to micro-location variables) but

supply is still relatively short. Buyers

are focusing on the lowest price homes

in the area.




Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes1.0 - 2.5 acres3,778 5.0 4.0 27 59 3 6$ 724,9001 275

Upper-middle 25% of homes0.50 - 1.0 acre2,026 4.0 3.0 42 59 5 2$ 324,5002 197

Lower-middle 25% of homes1,684 4.0 2.0 43 60 6 46,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 235,7503 115


sq ft$ 199,0004 203

The value placed on homes continues t

increase, despite the fact that prices in

general have been basically flat

recently. These conditions can arise

when inventory is light and more,

smaller homes have more influence on

overall prices.

PRICE AND VALUE



37/42


INVENTORY

Inventory has been steady around thes

levels in recent weeks with 238

properties currently available.






MARKET ACTION INDEX






shifts.



38/42







market.

DAYS ON MARKET







39/42





Median List Price

Average List Price


Total Inventory

$ 739,000

$ 940,112

$ 5,900,000

$ 110,000

238






is $739,000.

THIS WEEK




Median Lot Size

Median Age

2,618

3.9

3.0


6,501 - 8,000 sq ft


Inventory has been lightening lately

and the Market Action Index has been

trending up. Though days-on-market i

increasing, these are mildly positiveindications for the market.

PRICE

In this zip code this week saw relatively

little price change from last week.

However, we continue to demonstrate a

nice up trend over the last severalweeks.



40/42


PRICE PER QUARTILE



across the board. Quartiles 2, 3, and 4

have been in price decline in recent

weeks, with Quartile 1 remaining

basically flat. Look to the Market ActionIndex as a leading indicator of the

bottom of the market.




Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes4,200 5.0 4.5 23 59 0 36,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 1,575,0001 298

Upper-middle 25% of homes3,196 4.0 4.0 32 59 2 38,001 - 10,000

sq ft$ 850,0002 301

Lower-middle 25% of homes2,310 4.0 3.0 33 60 3 46,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 548,1503 212

Least expensive 25% of homes1,751 3.0 2.0 42 60 4 24,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 339,9004 207










drop.

PRICE AND VALUE



41/42


INVENTORY












MARKET ACTION INDEX






shifts.



42/42







market.

DAYS ON MARKET





About Altos Research CorporationAltos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets acrossthe country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available

publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition tothe market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to thebest of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estatedecision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other AltosResearch publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with alicensed real estate agent or broker.

Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved www.altosresearch.com
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