Developing Mid-Century Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS)

Orestes Anastasia, Global Green Growth Institute14th Policy Consultation Forum of the Seoul Initiative Network on Green Growth

Bangkok – September 2019

Photo credit: © David Broad, 2017, Wikimedia Commons.

Overview

• LT-LEDS in the international context

• What is an LT-LEDS

• Key elements, benefits, and considerations of an LT-LEDS

• Key elements of the LT-LEDS process

• International experience and resources

• Fiji LEDS experience

Photo credit: © David Broad, 2017, Wikimedia Commons.

GGGI at a Glance

• GGGI is a treaty-based international, inter-governmental organization dedicated to supporting and promoting strong, inclusive and sustainable economic growth in developing countries and emerging economies

• GGGI supports a “green growth transformation” that also promotes deep decarbonization and climate resilience

GGGI at a Glance

LT-LEDS in the international context

Copenhagen Accord (2009) – Paragraph 2

“A low emission development strategy is

indispensable for sustainable development”

Paris Agreement (2015) – Article 4, Paragraph 19

“All Parties should strive to formulate and

communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission

development strategies, mindful of Article 2 taking into

account their common but differentiated

responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light

of different national circumstances.”

What is an LT-LEDS?• Country-led economy-wide 2050 strategy contributing to Paris Agreement

(1.5°C/2.0°C goal)

• Aligns with and supports existing national development plans and budgets

• Recommends programs, policies, and implementation and financing plans

• Provides a long-term structure for NDCs and a basis for long-term financing

• Inclusive process (all stakeholders, all sectors)

• Monitored for impact

• Can be revised as needed (with new data, new priorities)

• Communicated to UNFCCC

Elements of an LT-LEDS• Founded in strong government commitment and

leadership

• GHG emission reduction target(s) before and in 2050/mid-century

• Emission reduction scenarios/pathways (business-as-usual and more ambitious scenarios)

• Social development objectives

• Economic growth objectives

• Objectives for protecting and improving the management and use of natural resources and ecosystems

• Consideration of climate change adaptation, institutional, capacity building, governance, and investment/financing requirements

“Long-term planning allows us to make better decisions in the present by enabling us to compare the long-term implications of alternative solutions.”

—Laurence Tubiana, 2018

Benefits of an LT-LEDS

• Integrates low-emission, climate resilient development and green growth

• Helps countries meet international climate commitments with appropriate actions

• Establishes implementable policy and financing priorities for low emission economic growth

• Supports buy-in and ownership across numerous stakeholders around a shared vision

• Aligns short-, medium-, and long-term plans

• Integrates multiple national development objectives, including adaptation, into a single strategy

• Helps to access to public and private financing

Key considerations in the LT-LEDS process

• Role and involvement of government leadership

• Governance structure – such as creation of national LT-LEDS Steering Committee

• Policy context – such as national development priorities

• Stakeholder engagement, visioning, and consultation process – how extensive?

• Level of depth of technical analysis, modeling, and scenario development

• Technical expertise and tools needed

• Schedule and timeframe for preparation, consultation, completion, and approval

• Cost and financial support

Key emissions sources

• Energy: electricity and other energy generation and use

• Domestic transport: land, maritime, and air

• Agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU)

• Industrial processes and product use (IPPU)

• Waste

• Coastal wetlands (mangroves, sea grasses, and tidal basins)

• Cross-cutting – such as cities, buildings, tourism, commercial sector, etc.

Other topics to include in an LT-LEDS

• Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience – links to National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

• Social, Economic, and Environmental Dimensions –such as green jobs, gender, equity, urban and rural development, biodiversity conservation

• Education, Capacity Building, and Awareness Raising

• LT-LEDS implementation:

• Institutional Arrangements and Governance

• M&E

• Prioritized Actions, with high-level costing and timeline

Conventional growth

Time

Gro

wth

(today)

Current emissions level

Continuing economic growth without regard for climate change & other planetary systems

Predicted warming of 3-4°C under BAU

Conventional growth: decline/collapse

Time

Gro

wth

(today)

Current emissions level

Economists are no longer envisioning endless growth. There is a high risk of contraction and/or collapse of economic sectors and economies, particularly for developing countries.

Predicted warming of 3-4°C under BAU

Green growth through an LT-LEDS

Time

Gro

wth

Continuing economic growth and social development… while reducing or slowing emissions

(today)

Low Emission Pathways

Current emissions level

Zero emissions

Decoupling economic growth from emissions

Net-Negative Emissions

Net-Zero

Goal of keeping warming to within 1.5-2.0°C

IPCC: Necessary global emission pathways

Source: IPCC, 2018, 1.5°C report

Key Elements of the LT-LEDS Process

❶Organize the LEDS Process

❷Assess the

Current Situation

❸Analyze Options

❹Prioritize Actions

❺Prepare LEDS,

Implement, and Monitor

❶ Organize the Process

• Initial stakeholder consultations• Work plan for LT-LEDS development• LT-LEDS institutional arrangements and

coordination platforms• Establish mechanisms for stakeholder

consultations and engagement

❶Organize the

Process

❷Assess the

Current Situation

❸Analyze Options

❹Prioritize Actions

❺Prepare LEDS,

Implement, and Monitor

❷ Assess the Current Situation

• Consult with stakeholders – information gathering• Assess current strategies, policies, practices and

confirm development goals, including GHG inventory

• Consider international best practices• Collect economic and other resource data

❶Organize the LEDS Process

❷Assess the

Current Situation

❸Analyze Options

❹Prioritize Actions

❺Prepare LEDS,

Implement, and Monitor

❸ Analyze Options

• Consult with stakeholders – visioning• Analyze BAU scenarios• Analyze low emission pathways/

scenarios• Assess low emission options• Consider development options,

including adaptation, job creation, etc.

❶Organize the LEDS Process

❷Assess the

Current Situation

❸Analyze Options

❹Prioritize Actions

❺Prepare LEDS,

Implement, and Monitor

❹ Prioritize Actions

• Consult with stakeholders – consider options and priorities• Identify policy, financing, and other implementation options and

priorities • Prioritized near-term actions• Sector assessments• Develop financing and implementation plans – transport

❶Organize the LEDS Process

❷Assess the

Current Situation

❸Analyze Options

❹Prioritize Actions

❺Prepare LEDS,

Implement, and Monitor

❺ Prepare LT-LEDS, Implement, and Monitor

• Prepare LT-LEDS document• Engage stakeholders• Secure government approvalFuture:• Implement actions and policies• Secure financing• Systems to monitor implementation

❶Organize the LEDS Process

❷Assess the

Current Situation

❸Analyze Options

❹Prioritize Actions

❺Prepare LEDS,

Implement, and Monitor

Illustrative Timeline

Month

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Organize the Process

Assess Current Situation

Analyze Options., Scenarios, and Pathways

Prioritize Actions, Targets, Pathways

Prepare LT-LEDS: Scenarios, Cross-Cutting Issues

Implementation & Monitoring

P

ub

lic

LT

-LE

DS

La

un

ch

Prepare LT-LEDS: Outline, Policy Assessment

G

ov

ern

me

nt

Ap

pro

va

l

S

ub

mis

sio

n t

o U

NF

CC

C

Stakeholder Visioning

Stakeholder Consultations on Options and Priorities

Stakeholder Vetting

Communications & Awareness

LT-LEDS process can take ~12-36 months, depending on complexity, depth, and stakeholder processes

LT-LEDS progress

LTS/LEDS Submitted to UNFCCCLTS/LEDS in consideration or underway

Germany

IcelandNorway

SwedenFinland

EstoniaLithuania

PolandSlovakia

HungarySloveniaRomania

BulgariaGreece

ItalySpainPortugal

Morocco Tunisia

Nigeria Ethiopia

South Africa

Costa RicaColombia

Brazil

Ecuador

Peru

Chile

Argentina

Australia

New Zealand

Indonesia

Vietnam

India

ChinaRep. of Korea

KazakhstanNetherlandsBelgium

Ireland

Tonga

Cyprus

United States

Canada

United Kingdom

France

Fiji

Japan

Republic of the Marshall Islands

UkraineCzech Rep.

Mexico

Benin

Denmark

Sources: UNFCCC; 2050 Pathways Platform; GGGI

International LT-LEDS experience

Country (year)End Year

Sectors CoveredEconomy-

wide EnergyTrans-port AFOLU Waste Industry Other Models & Methods Used

Canada (2016) 2050 X X X X X X Energy Consumption in End Use Applications, covers transport, buildings and industry. Non-CO2

Emissions.

Energy, Emissions and Economy Model for Canada (E3MC); LMDI method to determine decomposition of energy-related GHG emissions

Germany

(2016/2017)

2050 X X X X - X Buildings None reported

Mexico (2016) 2050 X X X X X X SLCPs, includes deep focus on

adaptation

CLIMACAP/LAMP Cross-modelling,

MIT Economic Projection and Policy

Analysis Model; Marginal abatement

cost functionsUS (2016) 2050 X X X X X X Global Change Assessment Model,

Global Timber Model, US Forest

Assessment System Service Model;

National Energy Modelling System, US

EPA Non-CO2 Marginal Abatement

Cost Model; LCOE ProjectionsBenin* (2016) 2025 - X X X - - Health, Water, Infrastructure and

Human SettlementsNo modelling undertaken; SWOT analysis

France (2016/ 2017)

2050 X X X X X X Residential ThreeME Model (Multi-sector Macroeconomic Model for the Evaluation of Environmental and Energy Policy), ERNR3 Prometheus microsimulation model (used to model social impacts of the transition)

International LT-LEDS experience

Country (year)End Year

Sectors CoveredEconomy-

wide EnergyTrans-port AFOLU Waste Industry Other Models & Methods Used

Czech Republic (2018)

2050 X X X X X X "CO2 calculator calibrated for Czech Republic"

United Kingdom (2017/ 2018)

2050 X X X X X X Public Sector, Homes UK TIMES, a model of the whole UK energy and greenhouse gas system covering the period 2010 to 2060, v1.2.3_d0.6.0_DNP

Ukraine (2018) 2050 X X X X X X TIMES-Ukraine; Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with extended energy block was used to estimate the social and economic outcomes

Republic of the Marshall Islands (2018)

2050 X X X - X - Emission projections extrapolated based on population and other factors

Fiji (2019) 2050 X X X X X - Coastal wetlands (mangroves), tourism, commercial, and manufacturing sectors

LEAP Energy Model

Japan (2019) 2050 X X X X X X “Community and living,” i.e., residential sector, commercial sector, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, construction, energy conversion sector, urban area. It also deals with methane and nitrous oxide emissions, from agriculture and waste; cross-cutting sectors

Bottom-up calculations

International LT-LEDS resources

LEDS Global Partnership - www.ledsgp.org

• Established in 2011, this is the largest global expert network dedicated to LEDS and NDCs, engaging leaders from more than 300 government and international agencies, research institutes, and NGOs (including GGGI)

• Operates through regional platforms, six technical working groups, and a global secretariat

• Asia LEDS Partnership - www.asialeds.org/ - supports peer learning and capacity building on LEDS in the Asia region

NDC Partnership - https://ndcpartnership.org/

• Works directly with national governments, international institutions, civil society, researchers, and the private sector using a country-driven approach that helps governments set priorities and connect them to available resources across our membership.

• Technical Assistance and Capacity Building, Knowledge and Information Sharing, Access to Finance

International LT-LEDS resources

2050 Pathways Platform - www.2050pathways.org/

• Multi-stakeholder initiative launched at COP 22 to support countries seeking to develop long-term, net zero-GHG, climate-resilient and sustainable-development pathways

• Members include 28 countries, 15 cities, 15 regions and states, and 196 companies

Long-Term Climate Strategies website - www.wri.org/climate/long-term-strategies

• Online suite of resources to help policymakers integrate long-term climate strategies into national policy making. This project contributes to the 2050 Pathways Platform and is undertaken in collaboration with the NDC Partnership.

International LT-LEDS resources

Green Growth Knowledge Partnership - www.greengrowthknowledge.org

• Global network of experts and organizations dedicated to providing the policy, business, and finance communities with knowledge, guidance, data, and tools to transition to an inclusive green economy.

• World’s largest online resource library on green growth-related issues.

Fiji LEDS experience

A Team Effort

• Fiji Ministry of Economy provided direct oversight and guidance, and oversaw national governance structure and process

• GGGI supported design, stakeholder process, scenario development, compilation of the LEDS

• Expert consultants were mostly Fiji-based to build local capacity, including University of the South Pacific

• Local training with Stockholm Environment Institute on LEAP energy model

Inclusive Consultation Process

• Ministry of Economy chaired national LEDS Steering Committee – 14 Ministries and other bodies

• Inclusive process engaging stakeholders across all sectors

• Three national stakeholder consultations (economy-wide and sector-specific) –visioning, consultation, and vetting

• One-on-one consultations with government and non-government stakeholders

Economy-wide Coverage• Electricity and Other Energy Generation and Use (Energy) –

towards 100% renewable energy

• Domestic Land, Maritime, and Air Transport (Energy) –towards 100% electric/zero-emission/low emission

• Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) –towards ending deforestation, promoting afforestation and reforestation

• Coastal Wetlands (Blue Carbon)* – restoration and recovery

• Waste Sector – range of mitigation measures

Also addressed:

• Adaptation

• Social, economic, and environmental considerations (including Green Jobs)

• Capacity building needs

• Governance and M&E

* Scenarios developed but not included in total emission reductions due to lack of data

Structure and Content of Fiji’s LEDS (1)

• Foreword by the Prime Minister

• Executive Summary

• Ch. 1 – Introduction: purpose of Fiji’s mid-century LEDS, Fiji’s overall vision, and Fiji’s approach and process for developing the LEDS

• Ch. 2 – National Circumstances: National policy context, development context, legal and institutional frameworks, Fiji’s efforts to achieve SDGs, global warming trends and international and regional action

• Ch. 3 – Pathways towards Low Emission Development and Deep Decarbonisation in Fiji: Fiji’s economic and social priorities and trends to 2050; possible pathways considered in the LEDS

Structure and Content of Fiji’s LEDS (2)

• Ch. 4 – Sector-Specific Targets and MeasuresSubchapters:

• Electricity and Other Energy Generation and Use (Energy)

• Land Transport (Energy)

• Domestic Maritime Transport (Energy)

• Domestic Air Transport (Energy)

• AFOLU

• Coastal Wetlands (Blue Carbon; mangroves)

• Waste

• Cross-Cutting Sectors: Tourism, Commercial, and Industrial and Manufacturing Sectors

Structure and Content of Fiji’s LEDS (3)

• Ch. 4 – Sector-Specific Targets and MeasuresEach subchapter includes:

• Overview

• Emission Sources

• Existing Policy, Institutional and Regulatory Frameworks

• MethodologyModel and Methodology Used, Data and Data Sources

Stakeholder Consultation Process

• Low Emission Development ScenariosBase Year (BY)

BAU Unconditional Scenario

BAU Conditional Scenario

High Ambition Scenario

Very High Ambition Scenario

• Policy Recommendations, Priority Actions, and High-Level

Costing

Structure and Content of Fiji’s LEDS (4)

• Ch. 5 – Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience: climate risks and vulnerability, NAP, mainstreaming and synergies between NAP and LEDS

• Ch. 6 – Social, Economic, and Environmental Dimensions: (1) green jobs and employment, (2) gender and equity, (3) green city development, (4) biodiversity conservation

• Ch. 7 – Education, Capacity Building, and Awareness Raising

• Ch. 8 – Governance and M&E

• LEDS Institutional Arrangements and Governance: links to national-level committees; LEDS review process; roles and responsibilities of ministries; private sector; sub-national government

• M&E framework, evaluation questions, reporting responsibilities, strengthening data and MRV systems

• Annex A – List of Prioritised Actions, with high-level costing and timeline: detailed list of mitigation actions, linked to scenarios, and including estimated costs and timeline for implementation

Fiji LEDS Governance

Structure

Fiji LEDS: Electricity and Other Energy

Fiji LEDS: AFOLU

Fiji LEDS: All

scenarios

Fiji LEDS: Very High Ambition Scenario

Launch and Submission

• LEDS sent to Prime Minister and Cabinet on November 13, 2018 –approved two weeks later

• Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama launched the LEDS at COP24 on December 13, 2018

• Communicated to the UNFCCC as the 11th long-term strategy on February 25, 2019

Thank You

www.gggi.org

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Orestes AnastasiaHead, Thought Leadership DepartmentGlobal Green Growth Instituteorestes.anastasia@gggi.org