Development Indicators 2014Min Jeff Radebe MP20 September 2015GCIS, Tshedimosetso House

2

3

Youth unemployment is a major challenge

4

S M S M S M S M S M S M S M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D

2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

48.8%

29.6%

15 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64

%

Statistics SA’s Labour Force Survey (2001-2007) and Quarterly Labour Force Survey (2008-2014)

NDP target: 14% by 2020 and 6% by 2030

5

GDP growth below NDP target

SARB quarterly bulletins based on Stats SA’s data 6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1.5%% y

ear o

n ye

ar

NDP target: 5.4%

Gross fixed capital formation

SARB quarterly bulletins7

0

5

10

15

20

25

20.3%

% o

f GDP

NDP target: 30% of GDP by 2030

Participation in public employment programmes increased

EPWP total since 2004

CWP total since 2009

Department of Public Works 8

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

6 million

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/140

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

177 thousand

NDP target: 2 million people per annum by 2030

Households accessing water, sanitation and electricity increased

9

2002 2005 2008 2011 20140

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

9

13

8.319918

13.403107

7

12

Milli

on h

ouse

hold

s

15.6 million households

11 million households

Stats SA’s General Household Survey 2002-2014

NDP target: Water – all people. 90% people access electricity through grid

Agricultural employment

Statistics SA Quarterly Labour Force Survey 10

NDP target: An additional 643 000 direct jobs and 326 000 indirect jobs in the agriculture, agro-processing and related sectors by 2030

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

200

400

600

800

1,000

742 thousand

Tota

l em

ploy

men

t in a

gricu

lture

(th

ousa

nds)

Expanded participation Early Childhood Development

Stats SA General Household Survey11

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0-4 year olds 5 year olds

%

5 yr olds: 87.2%

5 yr olds: 39.3%

NDP target: At least 2 years pre-school education for all

Matric pass rate

Department of Basic Education12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

75.8%

88.4%

Pass rate Special schools matric pass rate

NDP target: at least 80% pass rate

Artisan learner completion

Department of Higher Education and Training

13

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

18 thousand per yearNDP target: 30 thousand per year in 2030

Too few learners pass Mathematics at Grade 12

Department of Basic Education14

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

79 thousand

Mathematics passes Achieved at 40% and above

NDP target: 450 000 learners eligible for bachelors with maths and science

Decreasing share of GDP spent on Research & Development

HSRC, commissioned by Department of Science and Technology15

1991/92

1993/94

1997/98

2001/02

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

10,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0.76%

Gross Expenditure on R&D % of GDP

MTSF target: At least 1.5% of GDP by 2019

Life expectancy increased by 8.5 years between 2003 and 2014

Stats SA’s mid-year population estimates 2014 and Medical Research Council Rapid Mortality Surveillance (RMS) Report

16

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201446

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

52.7 years

61.2

62.2

Life expectancy (Stats SA) Life expectancy (RMS)

NDP target: 70 years by 2030

TB treatment success rate

Department of Health17

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

82%

77%

Successful treatment rate Cure rate

%

MTSF target: 85% treatment success rate of new clients by 2019

Child mortality declined significantly over the last decade

Stats SA’s Mid-year population estimates 2014MRC Rapid Mortality Surveillance (RMS) Reports 18

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Infant: 57.8

34.4

Under-5: 85.2 per 1 000 births

44.1

29

41

Infant mortality rate (Stats SA) Under-5 mortality (Stats SA)Infant mortality rate (RMS) Under-5 mortality (RMS)

Deat

hs p

er 1

000

live

birth

sNDP target: Reduce infant and child mortalityMDG target: 19 or less under-5’s per 1 000 in 2015

Maternal mortality declined, but is still high

Stats SA’s calculations based on civil registration and vital statistics system and MRC’s Rapid Mortality Surveillance Report 19

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

281 deaths per 100 000

197

Stats SA RMS

Mat

erna

l dea

ths

per 1

00 0

00 liv

e bi

rths

NDP target: Reduce maternal mortalityMDG target: 38 per 100 000 in 2015

Severe malnutrition under 5 years

Department of Health’s District Health Information System (DHIS)

20

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5 000

15 500

26 000

36 500

47 000

57 500

68 000

78 500

89 000

99 500

22 313

Num

ber

NDP target: Address hunger, malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies that affect physical growth and cognitive development, especially among children

Stats SA, Victims of Crime Survey 2011, 2012 and 2013/14 21

1998 2003 2007 2011 2012 2013/140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

86.5%

34.8%

Safe during the day Safe at night

%

Building safer communitiesNDP target: In 2030 people living in South Africa feel safe and have no fear of crime

Open budget index

www.openbudgetindex.org22

Rank 2006 2008 2010 2012

1 France United Kingdom New Zealand

2 Slovenia New Zealand

3 United Kingdom France United Kingdom United Kingdom

4 New Zealand New Zealand France Sweden

5 United States Norway Norway

Perception of corruption remains high

Transparency International23

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

50 5144

Scor

e (fr

om 0

- hi

gh c

orru

ptio

n to

100

- no

cor

rupt

ion)

NDP target: A corruption-free society, a high adherence to ethics throughout society and a government that is accountable to its people

Qualified audits declining but still too high

Auditor-General of South Africa24

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9083% municipalities

49%

National depts. Provincial depts. Municipalities

%MTSF target: 75% of municipalities with unqualified audit opinions by 2019

Revenue collection improved

 South African Revenue Service

25

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2010

/11

2011

/12

2012

/13

2013

/14

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

01 500 0003 000 0004 500 0006 000 0007 500 0009 000 00010 500 00012 000 00013 500 00015 000 00016 500 00018 000 00019 500 00021 000 000

3 million taxpayers

20 million

Personal Income Tax (PIT) Corporate Income Tax (CIT) Value Added Tax (VAT)Other tax types Income Tax register

R'bi

llion

Percentage of people progressing from low to middle living standards has increased

South African Advertising Research Foundation (SAARF)

26

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

12.9 million

23.8 million

LSM 1-3 LSM 4-7 LSM 8-10

27

Challenges• rising government debt• unemployment, especially youth • decline in the percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) spent on research and development

• weaker global competitiveness ranking• increasing aggravated robbery• increasing service-delivery protests• decreasing public opinion of service delivery by government

28

Posit

ive

tren

ds

increased life expectancy decreasing infant and child mortalityIncreasing roll-out of ART (adults and children) improved living standards increased access to basic servicesincreasing number of five-year-olds included in education system improved adult literacy increased enrolment in technical and vocational training increase in number of artisans qualifyingincreasing participation in public employment programmes (EPWP and CWP) decline in serious crime reported sustained good international performance in budget transparencymore effective revenue collection increasing tourism

29

Acknowledgement

30

31

Target Audience• Cabinet , Parliament and all Provincial Legislatures • Senior government officials • Embassies represented in South Africa & South African Embassies

abroad• South African delegations visiting other countries• University and community libraries• Think tanks and major non-governmental organisations • Research institutions• Media • International bodies like the World Bank, United Nations agencies