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Diabetes THE APPROACHING TSUNAMI

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Page 1: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Diabetes THE APPROACHING TSUNAMI

Page 2: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

The Ironman Effect

Page 3: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 4: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

26%

of Americans above age 65 have type II DM

Page 5: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 6: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

That means we are creating 2500 diabetics every

single day.

Page 7: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Medicare is predicted to become insolvent in 2030.

Page 9: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 10: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 11: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

America’s Growth Spurt

Page 12: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

BMI >30 and Diabetes

Page 13: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Diabetes has increased nearly 10-fold since 1958

Page 14: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 15: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Creeping Normalcy

Page 16: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 17: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Diabetes and Weight Gain

Gain of 11-16 lbs. doubles the risk of type 2 diabetes

Gain of 17-24 lbs. triples the risk of type 2 diabetes

Page 18: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 19: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Costs of Diabetic Meds

Metformin - $4/month

Januvia - $300/month

Farxiga - $460/month

Victoza - $600/month

Trulicity - $1000/mo., lowers A1c 1-1.5%

Januvia lowers A1c by average of 0.7%

Exercise for 8 weeks lowers A1c by 0.66%

Page 20: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

The High Cost of Diabetes

Page 21: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 22: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 23: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Shadow Pricing

On May 30, 2014, the price for a vial of the blockbuster diabetes

medication Lantus went up by 16.1 percent. On the next day,

Lantus’s direct competitor, Levemir, also registered a price increase

-- of 16.1 percent.

Six months later Lantus was marked up 11.9 percent, and Levemir

matched again exactly.

In 13 instances since 2009, prices of Lantus and Levemir have gone

up in tandem in the U.S.

Page 24: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 25: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 26: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

“I used to be afraid of failing at something that really mattered to me, but now I'm more afraid of succeeding at things that don't matter.” ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an Ordinary World

Page 27: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

You Are Not Just Treating Diabetes

Diabetes Depression

Obesity Social

isolation

Page 29: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Exercise ROI

Modest exercise can prevent or delay onset of DM by 58% (71% in

patients over 60) – NIH/CDC DPP

Loss of 5-7% body weight – 10 lbs. in 200 lb. male, 8 lbs. in 160 lb.

female

Page 30: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Gluconomics

Page 32: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 33: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Population Statistics

Kootenai county 150,000

Region 1 (5 northern counties) – 220,000

Idaho – 1.5 million

8.4% diabetes Statewide, only 7% Region 1

Page 34: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Idaho Diabetes Statistics

Idaho – 1.5 million

8.4% diabetes Statewide, only 7% Region 1

126,000 diabetics (8.4%)

555,000 prediabetics (37%)

Page 35: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Region 1 Diabetes Statistics

Region 1 – 220,000

15,400 diabetics (7%)

81,400 prediabetics (37%)

Page 36: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Region 1

20 lifestyle coaches

100 patients per coach per year

2000 prediabetics per year

Of 2000 participants, 300-600 cases of diabetes expected (15-30%)

200-400 cases prevented (60-70% reduction)

At 81,400 prediabetics, it would take over 40 years to reach all

current at-risk individuals

Remaining 80,000 patients, 12,000-24,000 will become diabetic

Classes reduce rate of conversion to DM by 1.6%

Page 37: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Idaho Statistics

50 lifestyle coaches

100 patients per coach

5000 prediabetics per year

Of 5000 participants, 750-1500 cases of diabetes expected (15-30%)

500-1000 cases prevented (60-70% reduction)

At 550,000 prediabetics, it would take 110 years to reach all current

at-risk individuals

Remaining 545,000 patients, 81,750-163,500 will become diabetic

Classes reduce rate of conversion to DM by 0.9%

Page 38: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Population Health

Page 39: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Department of Health and Welfare

Clinical services account for a relatively small impact on population

health. To improve the health of a broadly defined population,

integration of clinical services, public health and community based

initiatives is necessary.

John Auerbach’s (Associate Director for Policy, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) method for analyzing the measures of

health (adopted by Get Healthy Idaho).

Page 40: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Auerbach’s Buckets

Bucket #1 – Traditional Clinical Approaches. Patient construct, one-

on-one patient interaction.

Bucket #2 – Innovative Clinical Care. Patient construct with a

narrow population view, e.g. accountable care organization, patient centered medical home.

Bucket #3 – Community-wide Health. Community construct, focus is on a broad population (Health District or the state of Idaho).

Typically has a policy focus.

Page 41: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

YMCA Diabetes Prevention

Program

Three-year, $12 million grant from the federal Center for Medicare

and Medicaid Innovation to make its diabetes-prevention program

available to about 10,000 Medicare patients in 17 communities.

$1200 per participant

Page 42: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

YMCA’s Effort By The Numbers

11,714: Participants who attended at least one diabetes-prevention class session.

1,477: Classes started.

1,295: Lifestyle coaches trained to teach the CDC's evidence-based curriculum.

569: Diabetes-prevention class locations.

86: Community YMCAs with teachers trained to deliver the program.

35: States where the program is offered.

4.9%: Average body weight loss achieved by program participants.

Source: “YMCA's Diabetes Prevention Program Overview,” YMCA of the USA, June 17

Page 43: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

YMCA’s Effort By The Numbers

1,295 certified Lifestyle coaches

1,477 classes

11,714: Participants who attended at least one session

8 participants per class

We would need 9 million DPP classes

Page 44: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 45: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Diet and Exercise

DM

HTN

High cholesterol

Obesity

CAD

Sleep apnea

Anxiety

Depression

Social isolation

Page 46: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Kroc Rx

Page 47: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

The Doctor Will See You Now

Page 48: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 49: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Pathways to Health

We must offer pathways to health.

The model will be based on:

visits at the health facility

group support, and

education through shared medical appointments

We will bring resources TO the patient rather than asking the patient

to travel to the resources.

Page 50: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
Page 51: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an
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Evaluation and Management

Everyone should be offered diet and exercise.

Everyone should have a psychosocial evaluation.

It is not enough to recommend these things, they must be provided

as part of the health care visit.

Page 53: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

What Constitutes an Office Visit?

Exercise IS a visit.

Diet instruction IS a visit.

Behavioral health instruction IS a visit.

(goal setting, behavioral activation, CBT, mindfulness solution)

Page 54: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

Heritage Health University

PhD in Health

Exercise module

Nutrition module

Behavioral health module

Life Skills module – financial, spiritual, social

Medication reduction module

Page 55: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an

A Different Strategy

Collaboration

Relationship

Think outside your 4 walls

Find your largest partner(s)

Churches, colleges, community centers

Look for champions with passion

Surround your patients with healthy role models

Page 56: Diabetes - Idaho Public Health Districtsidahopublichealthdistricts.org/docs/IADBH Conference/2016/present… · ― Bob Goff, Love Does: Discover a Secretly Incredible Life in an