dialogic design for foresight : dwd workshop
TRANSCRIPT
PAIN CONSULT
Concept design workshop
Peter Jones, OCAD University Sept 12, 2012
Imagining Future Urban Challenges
A Dialogic Design Workshop
Social Sciences & Humanities Research Council
• Across Canada - 6 Regional panel sessions OCADU led with York, Ryerson, UOIT, Windsor
• Based on large foresight / scan project “Shaping Tomorrow” 3500 trends, 70K insights, initial set > 200 trends
• We proposed a focused panel on a well-framed issue to derive challenges in response to a single major trend: Urbanization
• 18 members selected from S. Ontario for STEEP/CI + diversity Requisite Variety
Imagining Canada’s Future 2030
Sampling approach based on Ashby’s systems principle
• STEEP CI Criteria: Social, Technology, Economy, Ecology, Political, Culture / Intellect
• Diversity: Age cohort, Academic, Professional, ethnicity, gender
• Smaller groups that meet stricter stakeholder criteria
• Invested in the future problem, sufficient care, action
Requisite Variety
• “Co-laboratory of Democracy” approach – Strongly democratic
• Multi-staged, progressive reasoning process
• Cogniscope software (Root Cause Mapping)
• Multi-Facilitated
• Canonical, rigorous
• Guides dialogue toward effective action
• Employed as action research
• Well published in social & systems literatures
Structured Dialogic Design
• Cyprus Reunification Dialogues (1990 – 2011) EU project for Israeli-Palestinian dialogues
• WHO Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis Partners, Clinicians, Villagers & Pharma from multiple agencies (1999)
• Transnational Indigenous Leaders Dialogue on Globalization: 40 Indigenous leaders from Americas and New Zealand & experts
• US Forest Service - Forest Service Priority Setting (2003)
• Alternative Energy Future Planning, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance
Democratic - For complexity & power
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2
3
Deliberative co-created design of an envisioned social system
Diagnosing Problematique
Clarifying Challenges
Clustering Challenges
11
“Obamavision” Wiki
Constructing Challenges into Influence Map
ICF Influence Map – 12 Challenges
• “When concurrence-seeking becomes so dominant in a cohesive in-group that it tends to override realistic appraisal of alternative courses of action. (Janis, 1971)
• Spreadthink: Unable to reach any genuine consensus, or even majority view toward component aspects of a complex issue
• Clanthink: When like groups maintain concurrence within group
• Linkthink: When people “link” like ideas in concurrence
Warfield: “Facilitators who try to bring groups to a consensus without the aid of some methodology that resolves the difficulties caused by Spreadthink may well be driving the group to Groupthink, and thus helping to arrive at a decision that lacks individual support and, usually, lacks substance.
Resolves Groupthink
Triggering Question
“In the face of increasing urbanization worldwide, what future challenges do we anticipate for Southern Ontario, now through 2030?"
Clarify the meaning, and co-create the TQ so we
own it as a group.
Triggering Question
Triggering Question
“In the face of increasing urbanization worldwide, what future challenges do we anticipate for Southern Ontario, now through 2030?"
Your response: Write 3 challenge statements on single sheet. Short phrase that distills the essence of a complex problem as a challenge
Not a solution “create alternative transportation systems” Or an outcome “Better regional government”
Pair up & workshop all 3, & refine. Then read one each in turn. Write your chosen challenge (or 2) one per sheet and post.
Generation
Triggering Question
Read one challenge, in turn around circle. Questions for clarification – quickly – taken in this round.
Rapid Clarification
Triggering Question
Group of 4-5 – Go to wall & cluster together / name categories Group 1 - 5 Minutes Group 2 – 4 Minutes Group 3 – 3 Minutes Group 4 – 2 Minutes
Based on Delphi & iterative refinement.
Clustering Challenges
Triggering Question
Mark an X on up to 3 different challenges Order challenges in cluster by votes.
Voting
Triggering Question
Make 5 DIVERSE groups of 5-6 Each group selects one item from each category. You can copy! Construct at least one scenario describing the future relationship of these challenges, their co-evolution together & their possible resolutions.
Position sheets in a narrative order Sketch images of the possible relationships, influences, outcomes Present each in 5 min rapid round
Scenarios