„die kalte sonne“ the cold sun the medieval warm period within the context of millennial scale...
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„Die kalte Sonne“
The cold Sun
The Medieval Warm Period within the Context of Millennial Scale Climate Cycles
Dr Sebastian Lüning
„The Cold Sun – Why climate catastrophe is called off“
New book reminds IPCC scientists of the important role of natural climate drivers
> Publication date: February 2012
> Authors:– Prof Fritz Vahrenholt: CEO Renewable Energy Company
– Dr Sebastian Lüning: Geologist
> English edition: to be published in fall 2012
Fritz Vahrenholt Sebastian Lüning
Reaction of the Climate Establishment
Prof Mojib Latif (University of Kiel):“When reading the book as a scientist, my hair stands on end. This is a pseudo-scientific treatise.”
Prof Hartmut Graßl (formerly Director of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in Geneva):“Well, you know, I don‘t really want to comment on this rubbish.“
Prof Jochem Marotzke (Director of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg):“The book authors have read a lot but understood very little.“
But there were also positive reactions
Hamburger Abendblatt:“Cora Stephan once criticised the intellectual doldrums in Germany. What an irony that a wind energy manager of all people has to experience this lull”
Economy Program ECO of Swiss Television:Book Tip of the Week (23 April 2012)
PM Magazin:“Science is vulnerable to group think. Once a consensus has formed it becomes hard to express doubts. This is particularly true in the politically sensitive climate sciences. The subject is too important for that it could be allowed to suppress opinions deviating from the alleged consens. And this is why the climate discussion needs people like Vahrenholt.“
Daily Climate News on our Blog: www.kaltesonne.de
The Beginning
> Fred Singer/Dennis Avery:„Unstoppable Global warming - every 1,500 years“
> Published in 2006
> New York Times Bestseller
Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles during the last Ice Age:
1,470 years cycle
> Cycles with 1,470 years duration
> Grouped into bundles of cycles with common trends
> Temperatue changes of up to 10°C within a few decades
> DO-cycles occurred in Pleistocene (last ice age).
> What is their significance in postglacial times, the last 10,000 years?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event
Primary solar activity cycle periods
> There is no 1,500 year cycle periode in the primary solar activity record
> Next closest cycles are the
– Eddy cycle (1000 years)
and the
– Hallstatt cycle (2300 years)
> Stefan Rahmstorf suggests Gleissberg/Suess-de-Vries cycle combination for Pleistocene DO-cycles.
Spectral Analysis of sunspot data(data: Solanki et al. 2004, analysis from Kern et al. 2012)
Start of a new field of research in 2001:
Solar-forced millennial-Scale Climate Cycles in the North Atlantic
Ice Rafted Debris as Climate Proxy http://www2.imperial.ac.uk/blog/wilkeslandiodpexpedition/2010/01/19/19-january-2010-icebergs/
http://www.ccstib.fr/Climats-du-passe-le-climat-de-l,209.html
Bond et al. 2001
studied cores
Synchronicity between Solar Activity and Temperature in North Atlantic
Bond et al. 2001
Solar activity (blue curve): C14 as proxy for cosmic rays which are modulated by solar magnetic fieldTemperature (black curve): HSG=Hematite Stained Grains=ice berg debris
thousand years before present
cold
warm
Gerard Bond (1940-2005)
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/record/23/10/13.html
Bond‘s Follow-up Study 2003: The Same Milennial-Scale Cycles in a Lake in Alaska
IPCC AR4 lead author Stefan Rahmstorf on Bond et al. 2001:
„Bond cycles could not be reproduced in later studies“
> Rahmstorf about Bond et al 2001:
– Bond cycles could not be reproduced by other scientists.
– In later years Bond did not believe his results himself.
– Bond cycles are a dead end street in climate science.
http://www.scilogs.de/wblogs/blog/klimalounge/klimadaten/2010-07-14/heiss-globale-rekord-temperatur
Did Bond really give up on his Bond cycles?No! He even published about them just before passing away
Müller et al. 2005
Kemp et al. (January 2012 in Quaternary Research):
Bond Cycles in South East Australia
> Precipitation (upper curve) and temperatures (lower curve) in synchronicity with Bond‘s North Atlantic cycles
> North Atlantic Cold periods marked by grey bars
Kemp et al. 2012
Cléroux et al. (February 2012 in Paleoceanography):
Bond Cycles off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
> Temperature off Cape Hatteras (blue curve) and solar activity (red curve) in synchronicity with Bond‘s North Atlantic cycles
Cléroux et al. 2012
Steinhilber et al. (April 2012 in PNAS):
Bond Cycles in Chinese Cave
> Delta 18O reflects precipitation and strength of Asiatic monsoon
> High degree of synchronity with solar activity changes
Steinhilber et al. 2012
Neff et al. 2001 in Nature:
Synchronicity between solar activity and temperature development in dripstones of Oman for the period 7500-4500 BC
Neff et al. 2001
Carter 2008
Greenland Temperature reconstruction for the past 5,000 years based on deuterium in ice cores
Solar induced millennial-scale cycles everywhere
North Atlantic
Greenland
Alaska
China (1)
Oman
West Virginia
India
China (2)
> Radiative forcing according to IPCC AR4:
– CO2: 1.66 W/m2
– Sun: 0,12 W/m2
> Sun has hardly any climatic significance in the IPCC models
A miracle: How did the sun do the trick?
Medieval Warm Periodand
Modern Warm Periodas part of the Bond cycle
Solar 1000-Year-Cycle and its climatic response
What would be the natural continuation?1850
100001000ADBC. TODAY
Sun
2CO
Medieval Warm Period
RomanWarm Period
MinoanWarm Period
ModernWarm Period
LittleIce Age
Cold Period (Migration
Period)
Cold PeriodCold Period
Temperature
Attack against the Sun: Attempt #1
The Hockey Stick Illusion
Michael Mann Steve McIntyre
Solar 1000-Year-Cycle and its climatic response
The Hockey Stick Illusion1850
100001000ADBC. TODAY
Sun
2CO
RomanWarm Period
MinoanWarm Period
LittleIce Age
Cold Period (Migration
Period)
Cold PeriodCold Period
Temperature
ModernWarm Period
Medieval Warm Period
Solar 1000-Year-Cycle and its climatic response
The Hockey Stick Illusion1850
100001000ADBC. TODAY
Sun
2CO
RomanWarm Period
MinoanWarm Period
LittleIce Age
Cold Period (Migration
Period)
Cold PeriodCold Period
Temperature
ModernWarm Period
Medieval Warm Period
Attack against the Sun: Attempt #2
Little Ice Age allegedly caused by volcanoes
Attack against the Sun: Attempt #2
Little Ice Age allegedly caused by volcanoes1850
100001000ADBC. TODAY
Sun
2CO
RomanWarm Period
MinoanWarm Period
LittleIce Age
Cold Period (Migration
Period)
Cold PeriodCold Period
Temperature
ModernWarm Period
Medieval Warm Period
VolcanoVolcano?Volcano?Volcano?
The 1000-year cycle
Increase of Temperature, CO2 and Solar Activity
Temperature
Sun
CO2
> Besides temperature and CO2 also solar activity has increased over the past 150 years.
> The solar magnetic field has more than doubled.
1717
Solanki et al. 2004 (nature):
Solar activity of the past decades was one of the highest over the past 10.000 years
after Mauas et al. 2010
Synchronicity between solar activity and streamflow of Parana River over past 100 years
Solar Schwabe 11 year cycle
Years
Gray et al. 2010
Different response of different solar parameters
Sunspots
Total SolarIrradiance
UV
Radio Waves
Cosmic Rays
Magnetic Field
Open Solar Flux
0,1%
Variability
10%
several %up to 70%
Synchronicity between solar activity and water level of Lake Victoria (East Africa)
Stager et al. 2007
Temperature response to 11 year solar cycle
Sunspots
Temperature(deducted:: El Nino & volcanoes)
Scafetta 2009
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=37575
What‘s next for Bond cycle?
Weak Solar Cycle 24
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
24th24th23rd23rd
234
5 6
24? 25?
Archibald 2010
Gleissberg and Suess/de Vries Cycles
Years
210 Year Suess/de Vries Cycle
Abdussamatov 2010
last Suess/de Vries Minimum
Next Suess/de Vries Minimum
Prognosis of solar activity based on main solar cycles
Clilverd et al. 2006
The traditionale IPCC view, Feulner & Rahmstorf (2010):Upcoming solar minimum with little climate effect
The traditional IPCC view, Jones et al. (2012):Upcoming solar minimum with little climate effect
Our Schematic Temperature Prognosis(„Die kalte Sonne“)
Thank You