dietary choices and climate change
DESCRIPTION
A lecture by Kimberly Nicholas, professor of Sustainability Science at Lund University, summarizing recent research on the environmental impacts of food choices. The lecture was recorded in Stockholm, Sweden, then subtitled and shown at a youth leadership conference organized by a former student in Ukraine.TRANSCRIPT
Dietary Choices and Climate Change
Photo: Matthieu Paley, National Geographic
Kimberly NicholasLund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund, Sweden
www.kimnicholas.com@KA_Nicholas
2
Which causes more global warming?
Photo: Jodi Cobb, National Geographic Photo: Lee Turmpore, National Geographic
Livestock are major greenhouse gas sources
Photo: Jodi Cobb, National Geographic Photo: Lee Turmpore, National Geographic
Sources: FAO, 2006, Livestock’s Long Shadow; 20-year global warming potentials: IPCC WG1 2013, Table 8.A.1; Transport: IPCC WG3 2014, SPM
18%Total greenhouse gas emissions (CO2-equivalent):
14%• 37% methane (84x stronger than CO2)• 65% nitrous oxide (264x stronger than CO2)
5 Things Everyone Should Know About Climate Change
We need a new food paradigm
total agricultural production
real food production
food security goalsenvironmental goals
food distribution and access
resilience of food system
greenhouse gas emissions
biodiversity loss unsustainable water withdrawals
water pollution
minimum goals for 2050
19
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
Right now, we have too little food security…
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
… and too much environmental harm
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
We need more real, fair & resilient food
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
… and less environmental damage
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
Livestock has major environmental impacts
Domesticating the Planet
Science 2011, 334 (35)
Global meat consumption hasincreased dramatically since 1960
Godfray et al., 2010, Science
Land is limited on the blue planet…
NASA PPM14
Photo: Reuters/Paulo Whitaker15
12% ice-free land used for crops (size of South America)
Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 2004
Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand16
22% ice-free land used for grazing livestock
(size of Africa)
Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 2004
Humans farming the planet
Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 200417
crops
livestock
Cassidy et al., 2013,
Only 59% of calories produced become food
Current crops could feed 4 billion more if fed directly to
people
Slide courtesy Emily Cassidy. Source: Cassidy et al., 2013,
ERL.
Meat is inefficient to produce human nutrition
Livestock are large greenhouse gas producers
Source: Meat Atlas 2014. Data: FAO
ALL water on Earth(1384 km sphere)
Liquid fresh water (270 km sphere)
Fresh water in lakes & rivers(56km sphere)
Data from Shiklomanov, In Gleick 1993,“Water in Crisis.” Visualization by USGS Water Science Photo Gallery
Water Resources Are Limited…
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Agricultural production is 92% of human water footprint
Hoekstra and Mekonnen, 2012, PNAS
Ph
oto
s: N
atio
nal
Geo
grap
hic
22
Traditional fertilizer
23Photos: Peter Essick, National Geographic
Modern fertilizer
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Photos: Peter Essick, National Geographic Photos: UNEP 2011, National Geographic
Livestock “probably largest sectoral source of water pollution”
(In US: 55% erosion, 37% pesticides, 33% N & P)(FAO, 2006, Livestock’s Long Shadow)
25Photo: NASA
Photo: Mishka Hnner, 2013. Tascosa Feedyards waste lagoon, Texas. Compiled from Google Earth.
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Livestock manure: from valuable nutrient to toxic waste
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef uses 28x more landCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
beef
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef uses 11x more waterCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
beef
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef produces 5x more greenhouse gasesCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
beef
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef produces 6x more reactive nitrogenCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef has the largest footprint of animal products
How much meat are we consuming?
Data: FAO 2013; map: chartsbin.com
How much meat is recommended?
~0.7 grams / kilogram
90 kilogram person (200
lbs)
63 grams per day = 23 kilograms per year
Otten et al., 2006.
Dietary Reference Intakes: The Essential Guide to Nutrient
Requirements. National Academies Press.
Slide from Emily Cassidy
Source: FAO Food Balance Sheets
Slide from Emily Cassidy
Source: FAO Food Balance Sheets
Slide from Emily Cassidy
Recommendedintake
Most countries are consuming more meat than recommended for health - and the environment
How much meat are we consuming?
Data: FAO 2013; map: chartsbin.com
Too much! Ukraine: 48.5 kg/person
Recommended level
How can we do better?
Health and environmental goals align in plant-based diets
“In terms of immediacy… and
feasibility… [reduced meat
consumption] is clearly the most
attractive opportunity. Give up
meat for one day a week initially,
and decrease it from there.”
Decrease meat consumption
Dr. Rajendra Pachauri
Chair of IPCCQuoted in The Guardian, 7 September 2008
Photo: Elizabeth Ruiz
Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com
Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com
Smaller portions of meat, meat-free meals go a long way
“Meat is a wasteful use of water
and creates a lot of greenhouse
gases. It puts enormous pressure
on the world’s resources. A
vegetarian diet is better.”
Go further
Lord Nicholas Stern
Former World Bank chief economistQuoted in The Daily Mail, 27 October 2009
Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com
Vegetarians had half the carbon footprint of heavy meat eaters
Fish-eaters and vegetarians had similar carbon footprints
Vegans go the extra mile
“We conclude that
reduced ruminant meat and
dairy consumption will be
indispensable for reaching
the 2°C target
with a high probability, unless
unprecedented advances in
technology take place.”Hedenus et al., 2014, Climatic
Change
EAT Forum 2014
Some exciting models
Picture from @kaityarnall
Food Climate Research Network, www.fcrn.org.uk April 2014
5
both narrow and broad definitions come with attendant problems. Narrow definitions over simplify the issues and the multiple goals we have for the food system. On the other hand, very broad definitions tend to lack meaningful specificity. Take for example the FAO‟s definition of sustainable diets as: „… diets with low environmental impacts which contribute to food and nutrition security and to healthy life for present and future generations. Sustainable diets are protective and respectful of biodiversity and ecosystems, culturally acceptable, accessible, economically fair and affordable; nutritionally adequate, safe and healthy; while optimizing natural and human resources‟ (FAO 2010). 9 While it is surely hard to disagree with this definition, it is very unclear what such a diet might look like on the plate. It also suggests that these multiple „goods‟ are synergistic, when inevitably there will be trade offs. Figure 1 highlights just a few of the issues that may need considering in defining a „sustainable diet.‟
Figure 1: Issues to consider when defining a sustainable diet
The amorphousness of the word sits at the root of disagreements: stakeholders not only define and use „sustainability‟ differently but, even when they agree about its components, may prioritise issues in different ways. In the case of sustainable diets, environmental NGOs typically place strong emphasis on environmental concerns, on ethical dimensions such as animal welfare and fair terms of trade, and on certain aspects of health - in particular obesity
9 FAO (2010). Final document: International Scientif ic Symposium Biodiversity and Sustainable Diets: United
against Hunger. 3-5 November 2010, Food and Agriculture Organisation, Rome
Garnett, 2014
“What is a sustainable healthy diet?”
We vote with our forks three times every day
Photo: Seven Stans, National Geographic
If we’re serious about
addressing climate
change,
we have to get serious
about reducing meat
consumption.Image: Bill Hogan on vox.com