digital transformation in the post-smartphone age

PowerPoint Presentation

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION IN THE POST SMARTPHONE AGElafur Andri Ragnarsson

Living in the future - predict how technology will impact businesses in the next 3-5 years

New Technology atReykjavik University

Humanity will change more in the next 20 years than in the past 300 years Gerd Leonhard

The 20th century was the age of automobile, oil and mass manufacturing

Local and linear

The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894In 50 years every street in London would be buried under nine feet of manure. The Times of London, 1894

New Technological Revolution takes off

Ford Model-T 1908IRRUPTION

Car companies were the hottest technology companies

FRENZYThe Roaring Twenties

Turning Point

From 1960 to 1980 there was unprecedented consumer demand because of the affluent middle class (Baby Boomers) both in US and EuropeSource: Retail RevivalSYNEGRY

Benefits of the new technology spreads

Golden Age

Post-war America - from high street to the mall

SilentBoomerGen XMillennialGen Z

Industrial era

Teletype

Adding machines

Punch Cards

IBM 305RAMACProductivity

Market Shift

Information era

Mainframe

MiniComputer

PC

Client-server

Internet

Open Source

Visicalc

Macintosh

Windows 95

Mobile Phone

GSM

CalculatorMarket Shifts

Microprocessor

Smartphone

INSTALLATIONPERIODTURNINGPOINTDEPLOYMENT

Age of Oil andAutomobile1908The RoaringTwenties

1929-33 & 43Post-war Golden AgeSource: Carlota PerezTechnological Revolution


The Industrial Revolution1771Canal mania

1793-97The Great British Leap

Age of Steamand Railways1829Railway mania

1848-50The Victorian Boom

Age of Steel and Electricity1875Infrastructurebubbles

1890-95The Belle poque (Europe)Progressive Era (USA)


1929-33 & 43Post-war Golden AgeSource: Carlota PerezTechnological Revolution

The Age of Information

1947

Programmable all-purpose electronic computers start to have impact on big businesses and government

Automation starts, jobs get lost

IBM mainframesMainframe

1965Minicomputers allow mid-sized companies and academia to have time shared computing power

Automation continues

Minicomputers

Fifth Technological Revolutionstarts

Intel 1971The Technology Trigger 1971

1981Personal Computer allowed small companies and individuals to own and program computers

Generative platform

Opened up a huge revolution - created a new industry

Personal Computers

IRRUPTION

1995Opened up a new way for people to communicate and exchange data

Generative platform, permissionless innovation

Created new industries, transformed businesses

3.4 billion connectedInternet

FRENZY

2007The smartphone revolution takes off with new possibilities

Powerful computer in your pocket

Access to 4 million apps

Constant access to the Internet

Smartphone

PDP-8Computer from DEC inMarch 1965

Cost 18.500 USD

50.000 machines sold

12 bit architecture

32K memory

0,5 MIPSMIPS: millions instruction per secondiPhone 6Smartphone fromSeptember 2015

Cost $649

Sold 10 million phonesin 3 days

64 bit architecture

128GB capacity

25.000 MIPS

From PDP-8 to the iPhone 650.000 times faster50 yearsAnd has camera, sensors, speakers, Wi-Fi, etc

We have a supercomputer in our pocket

Mainframe1947

Minicomputer1965

PC19811995Internet

Smartphone2007

The Shortening Waves

The Next Wave is built on the Smartphone Wave

What does this mean?

WE EMPHASIZETECHNOLOGYBUT IGNORE THE SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT

How will technology change peoples behavior?


Age of Information1971Internet mania andfinancial casino

2000 & 2008

The Industrial Revolution1771Canal mania

1793-97The Great British Leap

Age of Steamand Railways1829Railway mania

1848-50The Victorian Boom

Age of Steel and Electricity1875Infrastructurebubbles

1890-95The Belle poque (Europe)Progressive Era (USA)


1929-33 & 43Post-war Golden AgeThe New Golden Age?Source: Carlota PerezTechnological Revolution

SilentBoomerGen XMillennialGen Z

Industrial era

Teletype

Adding machines

Punch Cards

IBM 305RAMACProductivity

Market Shift

Information era

Mainframe

MiniComputer

PC

Client-server

Internet

Open Source

Visicalc

Macintosh

Windows 95

Mobile Phone

GSM

Calculator

Market Shift

Digital era

Apps

Cloud

Wearables

Blockchain

IoT

AI

Chatbots

Robotics

DronesMarket Shifts

Smartphone

MicroprocessorTechnology TriggerIntel 4004

Software eats the world

Intelligent Software

Real-time Software

Businesses are going thoughDigital Transformation

20102020

Defined Industry BoundariesSingle-purpose ProductsProducers and ConsumersBuying EconomyHierarchical StructurePlatforms, ecosystemsConnected Smart ProductsUser as producer, co-creationSharing economyNetwork Structure

The Transformation DecadeBroadcastingStreamingGatekeepersAlgorithms20102020

Ushering in the Golden Era in the Information AgeSource: Carlota Perez

Well only have it if we build it. Carlota Perez

The Smartphone

2+ billion people carrysmartphonesSource: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

If you want to get customers to use software, you cannot ignore mobileSource: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

The Internet Bubble

People check their smartphone over 100 times per day

Transformation from Hierarchical to Networks

The 20th century society structure was hierarchical government, companies, any form of communicationCoordination cost is high

The 21st century society becomes a network software connects individualsCoordination drops to zero

Any business that is built around a hierarchy with high coordination cost, will be crushed by a networked software solution with low coordination cost

Smart things that connect

Everyday objects get sensors and software and connect to the Internet

Thing

Smartthing

ProcessorsSensorsSoftware

Connected smartthing

ProcessorsSensorsSoftware

Source: HBR

FarmingsystemPlantersTillers

TractorCombineharvesters

Ecosystem

Smart farming

AccelerometerGyroscopeMagnetometerBarometerProximityLight sensorTouch screensGPSWiFiBluetoothGSM/CDMA CellNFC - Near FieldCamera frontCamera backSensors

Fitness tracking healthy lifestyle

Lockitron - lock control

Philips HUE light system

iGrill thermometer

Nest thermostat

Sonos sound system

Real-time algorithms

Using computers in the Information era: you sit down and use the computer just as any tool

Using computers in the digital era: The computer tells you what is happening and what you need to do

Real-time Algorithms

Smartphone + Network +Connected things + Real-time=Digital Transformation

Port of HamburgOver 9 million containers per year40.000 truck trips per day

Rise of online ordering and delivery services

78

79

AHA Logistics Drivers locations

Finance

Healthcare

Retail

Transportation

Education?Any industry

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION IN THE POST SMARTPHONE AGElafur Andri [email protected]@olandrislideshart.net/olandriTakk