dilip ratha world bank un hld new york october 2, 2013 outlook for migration and remittances 2013-16
TRANSCRIPT
Dilip RathaWorld Bank
UN HLD New YorkOctober 2, 2013
Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-16
Key messages
Remittances expected to reach $414 bn by 2013 and $540 bn by 2016
Are remittance costs rising?
Reduce the costs of recruitment, visa, passport and residency permits – a post-2015 development goal?
Remittances to developing countries to reach $414 bn in 2013
Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
f
2016
f
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700 FDI
Private debt & portfolio equity
Recorded Re-mittances
US$ billion
Top remittance recipients in 2013
$ million, 2013e as % of GDP, 2012
71
60
2622 21 20
15 1511 9
48
31
25 25 2421 21 21 20
17
Remittance flows to developing countries
$ billion 2011 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f
Developing countries 373 389 414 449 491 540 East Asia and Pacific 106 107 115 126 139 154 Europe and Central Asia 38 38 43 47 52 58 Latin America and Caribbean 59 60 61 68 75 84 Middle-East and North Africa 43 47 49 51 54 57 South Asia 97 107 114 123 133 145 Sub-Saharan Africa 30 30 32 35 38 41
Growth rate
Developing countries 11.9% 4.3% 6.3% 8.6% 9.3% 9.9% East Asia and Pacific 12.4% 1.0% 7.4% 9.5% 10.2% 10.5%
Europe and Central Asia 17.6% 1.6% 10.8% 10.3% 11.2% 11.6% Latin America and Caribbean 6.1% 0.9% 2.5% 10.5% 11.1% 11.6% Middle-East and North Africa 6.3% 10.8% 3.6% 4.9% 5.4% 5.6%
South Asia 18.4% 9.7% 6.8% 7.7% 8.5% 9.4% Sub-Saharan Africa 4.5% -0.4% 6.2% 8.6% 9.2% 9.5%
Remittance growth is picking up in all regions
Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and Caribbean Middle-East and North Africa
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
But slower growth in Latin America and the Caribbean
Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Double dip in Mexico
*3-month moving averages
Jun-
06
Dec-0
6
Jun-
07
Dec-0
7
Jun-
08
Dec-0
8
Jun-
09
Dec-0
9
Jun-
10
Dec-1
0
Jun-
11
Dec-1
1
Jun-
12
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13-30%
-10%
10%
30%
Year-on-year growth (%)
Remittances to Mexico
Double dip in Mexico…and US housing starts
*3-month moving averages
Jun-
06
Dec-0
6
Jun-
07
Dec-0
7
Jun-
08
Dec-0
8
Jun-
09
Dec-0
9
Jun-
10
Dec-1
0
Jun-
11
Dec-1
1
Jun-
12
Dec-1
2
Jun-
13-30%
-10%
10%
30%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Year-on-year growth (%)Year-on-year growth (%)
Housing starts right scale
Remittances to Mexico
In the US, employment is recovering faster for migrant workers than for natives*
Source: Current Population Survey
*3-month moving averages
Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13111
113
115
117
119
121
123
125
21
22
23
24millions millions
Natives (left scale)Migrants (right scale)
millions
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
183 183
131
55
2 6
264
300
235
70
5
Source: US Citizenship and Immigration Services.
Demand for skilled migrant workers is picking up in the US
Number of Days to reach H1-B visa cap
Exchange rate changes encouraged remittances India
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Rupee/$ (right axis)
Remittances (left axis)
Rupee/$Remittances, $ bn
Source: Internal Financial Statistics, IMF
Remittances are larger than foreign exchange reserves in at least 14 developing countries
Source: IMF, World Bank staff estimates
Remittances as a share of foreign exchange reserves (%)
Tajikis
tan
Ecuad
or
Sudan
Egypt
, Ara
b Rep
.
El Salv
ador
Pakist
anHait
i
Armen
ia
Bangla
desh
Hondu
ras
Nepal
Jam
aica
Kyrgy
z Rep
ublic
Domini
can
Repub
lic
Sri La
nka
1129%
227% 208%165%
140% 137% 126% 118% 117% 117% 111% 108% 107% 102% 94%
Registered Syrian Refugees
Dec 2
011
Jan
2012
Feb 2
012
Apr 2
012
May
201
2
Jun
2012
Jul 2
012
Aug 2
012
Sep 2
012
Nov 2
012
Dec 2
012
Jan
2013
Feb 2
013
Mar
201
3
May
201
3
Jun
2013
Jul 2
013
Aug 2
013
Sep 2
013
0200,000400,000600,000800,000
1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002,000,000
Source: UNHCR based on available data from Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon
Remittance price is falling, but not as much in low volume corridors where remittance is more important
Cost of sending $200
Source: World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide database
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Global Average
Global Weighted Average
Remittance price is falling, but not as much in low volume corridors where remittance is more important
Source: World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide database
Ru
ssia
to
Ukr
ain
e
Sa
ud
i Ara
bia
to
...
US
A t
o M
exi
co
Sa
ud
i Ara
bia
to
I..
.
US
A t
o E
l Sa
lva
do
r
Sin
ga
pu
r to
Ch
ina
UK
to
Nig
eri
a
US
A t
o C
hin
a
Ca
na
da
to
In
dia
Jap
an
to
Ch
ina
1.76
4.29 4.41 4.52 4.61
7.34 7.36 7.92
10.47
18.25Cost of sending $200 (%)
Remittance costs are still too high
Cost of sending $200, %)
Source: Remittance Prices Worldwide, World Bank.
13.1
10.59.7 9.3
8.7
7.36.7
12.1
9.0 8.9
6.67.3 7.1
6.7
SSA EAP Global MENA LAC SA ECA
2009Q1
2013Q3
Are remittance costs rising?
Lifting fees
Closing of MTO accounts by correspondent banks
Possible migration-specific goals for post-2015 agenda
Reduce cost of making remittances
Reduce the costs of migrating including
recruitment, visa, passport cost and residency
permits
Mobilize additional sources of financing for
development
Protect the rights and safety of migrants
Recruitment costs can be a drain on migrants’ income
Destination/OccupationSending country
Average recruitment cost
In months of wages
Domestic worker in Hong Kong Indonesia
$2,708 5.4
Philippines $1,719 3.4
Construction worker in Middle East Nepal
$1,200 6.0
Bangladesh $2,891 14.5
Sources: ITUC, IMWU and HKCTU, June 2012; APL-HK and PLU, April 2013; Martin 2013, Human Rights Watch 2013, World Bank 2011 (Nepal report). These data should be viewed as preliminary.
