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Directorate of Government Debt Securities Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia Government Securities Management May 22, 2015

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Page 1: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Directorate of Government Debt Securities Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia

Government Securities Management May 22, 2015

Page 2: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

OUTLINE

1. Government Securities Management and Financing Strategy

2. Government Securities Performance

3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework

4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile

2

DISCLAIMER: This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of the Republic in any jurisdiction or as an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This presentation is not and should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, investment or other product advice.

Page 3: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Government Securities Management and

Financing Strategy

Page 4: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

General Strategy for Debt Financing 2015

1. Optimizes Governments securities (SBN) issuance from domestic sources to fulfill Budget need and uses

foreign debts as complimentary;

2. Determines debt instrument by taken into account of market need in regard to market development and

portfolio management;

3. Issues Retail Bond for instrument diversification and financial inclusion;

4. Optimizes foreign and domestic loan instrument to fulfill Budget need on capital expenditure;

5. Conducts active portfolio management of Government securities through, among others, debt buyback

and debt switch, in order to promote market liquidity and stability;

6. Strengthens the function of Investor Relations Unit, among others, through the proactive dissemination of

information, rapid and effective responses, and effective communication with investors and other stakeholders.

4

Page 5: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Financing Trend, 2004 – 2015

(trillion IDR)

Notes: * Preliminary 2014 ** Revised Budget 2015

5

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015**

Govt Securities - net 6.9 22.6 36.0 57.2 85.9 99.5 91.1 119.9 159.7 224.7 265.0 297.7

Domestic Loan - - - - - 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 1.7

External Loan - net (28.1) (10.3) (26.6) (26.6) (18.4) (12.4) (4.6) (17.8) (23.5) (5.8) (15.4) (20.0)

Others/Non-Debt - net 42.0 (1.2) 20.0 9.1 16.6 25.5 4.6 28.3 38.1 18.1 (12.2) (65.5)

Budget Defisit, % to GDP 1.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.1 1.6 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.9

1.1

0.5

0.9

1.3

0.1

1.6

0.7

1.1

1.9

2.3 2.2

1.9

(0.5)

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Page 6: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Government Budget FY 2015

6

In billion IDR Financing sources Revised

Budget 2015 come from debt

financing (85.78% from

Government Securities, 9.62%

from Loan) and the rest 4.61%

from non debt financing.

In the Revised Budget 2015

(APBN-P 2015), deficit is

narrowing from 2.21% to 1.91%

of GDP

To maintain resilience and fiscal

sustainability

Despite lower budget deficit, net

debt in 2015 is higher

Government injects equity to SOEs

to increase their capacity to support

the achievement of the national

priority agenda

Stand-by loans are in place

to anticipate adverse

situations.

A. Total Revenue 1,793,588.9 16.1 1,761,642.8 15.1

B. Total Expenditure 2,039,483.6 18.3 1,984,149.7 17.0

Interest Payment 151,968.3 1.4 155,730.9 1.3

C. Primary Balance (93,926.4) (0.8) (66,776.0) (0.6)

D. Deficit (245,894.7) (2.2) (222,506.9) (1.9)

E. Financing 245,894.7 2.2 222,506.9 1.9

I. Non Debt (8,961.2) (0.1) (56,874.0) (0.5)

II. Debt 254,855.9 2.3 279,380.9 2.4

1. Government Securities (Net) 277,049.8 2.5 297,698.4 2.5

2. Loan (Net) (22,193.9) (0.2) (18,317.5) (0.2)

i. Foreign Loan (Net) (23,815.1) (0.2) (20,008.1) (0.2)

Disbursement 47,037.1 0.4 48,647.0 0.4

- Program Loan 7,140.0 0.1 7,500.0 0.1

- Project Loan 39,897.1 0.4 41,147.0 0.4

On Lending (4,319.4) (0.0) (4,471.9) (0.0)

Foreign Loan Principal Payment (66,532.8) (0.6) (64,183.2) (0.5)

ii. Domestic Loan (Net) 1,621.2 0.0 1,690.6 0.0

Disbursement 2,000.0 0.0 2,000.0 0.0

Domestic Loan Principal Payment (378.8) (0.0) (309.4) (0.0)

Assumptions :

GDP (trillion IDR) (Y.o.Y) 11,146,943.0 11,700,808.0

Growth (%) 5.8 5.7

Inflation (%) y-o-y 4.4 5.0

3-month-SPN (%) 6.0 6.2

IDR/USD (average) 11,900 12,500

% to

GDPBudget

% to

GDP

Revised

Budget

2015

Description

Page 7: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

7

Domestic:

Auction:

conventional securities: 23 x

Islamic securities: 22 x

Non-Auction:

retail bonds: ORI + Sukuk Retail.

International Bonds:

Issuance of International Bonds as complement to avoid crowding out in domestic market and provide benchmark for corporate issuance, consist of USD, YEN or EURO global bonds

Maximum issuance international bond 22.6% from target gross

Issuance targets for GDS, Sukuk and ATM target:

– GDS (SUN): 79.9% – Sukuk: 20.1% – ATM for auctions:

8.2 year Front Loading strategy: • in the first semester is

targeted at 63%. • for domestic issuance

is also targeted at first semester at 59%

FR 69 – 5 Y

FR 70 – 10 Y

FR 71 – 15 Y

FR 68 – 20 Y

Benchmark Series for 2014 & 2015

(in trillion Rp)

Instruments Budget

Revised

Budget

Govt Securities (net) 277.0 297.7

Redemption 135.6 136.5

Cash Management 15.0 15.0

Buyback 3.0 3.0

Govt Securities (gross) 430.7 452.2

Domestic 80.0% 77.4%

Retail 9.3% 8.9%

Auctions 70.7% 68.5%

International Bond 20.0% 22.6%

Indicative Target

Government Securities Financing (Gross) 2015

Page 8: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Securities Financing Realization 2015

*Adjusted by changes in Cash Management & Debt Switch 8

*(Million IDR)

Budget 2015*Revised Budget

2015*

Realization

(ao May 19, 2015)*

% Realization to

Revised Budget

2015

Government Securities Net 277.049.800 297.698.382 184.775.746 62,07%

Government Securities Maturing in 2015 153.612.324 154.487.324 56.088.289 36,31%

-Buyback 3.000.000 3.000.000 - 0,00%

Issuance Need 2015* 430.662.124 452.185.706 240.864.035 53,27%

Government Debt Securities (GDS) 162.732.000

Domestic GDS 112.360.000

-Coupon GDS 82.310.000

-Conventional T-Bills 27.050.000

-Private Placement 3.000.000

-Retail Bonds -

International Bonds 50.372.000

-USD GMTN 50.372.000

-Euro GMTN -

-Samurai Bonds -

Government Islamic Debt Securities 78.132.035

Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 51.860.035

- IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated

Bond/Project Based Sukuk) 27.195.000

- Retail Sukuk 21.965.035

- Private Placement 2.700.000

Global Sukuk 26.272.000

Page 9: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Government Securities Performance

Page 10: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Incoming Bids Awarded Bids Foreign Incoming Bids Foreign Awarded Bids % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS)

10 10

• Average Foreign incoming bids 2015 is Rp6,98T, compare to period in 2014, which reached 7,58T • Average incoming bids 2015 = Rp24,05T, increased from average incoming bids 2014 = Rp22,65T

• Average awarded bid 2015 = Rp10, 94T while average awarded bid 2014 = Rp10,97 T.

*as of May 11, 2015

Average incoming bids

2014 = Rp22,65T/auction

Average awarded bids

2014 = Rp10,97T/auction

GDS Primary Market Performance 2015

Page 11: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 19-May-15

Incoming Bids Awarded Bids Foreign Incoming Bids Foreign Awarded Bids % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS)

11 11

• Average Foreign incoming bids 2015 is Rp4,99T

• Average incoming bids 2015 = Rp16,22T, increased from average incoming bids 2014 = Rp14,02T

• Average awarded bid 2015 = Rp6,83T, while average awarded bid 2014 = Rp6,52T.

*as of May 19, 2015

Avr . Awarded bids

2014 = 6,52T

Avr. Incoming Bid 2014: 14,02T

Avr. Foreign Incoming Bid 2014:

4,42T

GS Primary Market Performance 2015

Page 12: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

2468

10121416182022

Mei'0

8

Agust'0

8

Nop'0

8

Feb'0

9

Mei'0

9

Agust'0

9

Nop'0

9

Feb'1

0

Mei'1

0

Agust'1

0

Nop'1

0

Feb'1

1

Mei'1

1

Agust'1

1

Nop'1

1

Feb'1

2

Mei'1

2

Agust'1

2

Nop'1

2

Feb'1

3

Mei'1

3

Agust'1

3

Nop'1

3

Feb'1

4

Mei'1

4

Agust'1

4

Nop'1

4

Feb'1

5

Mei'1

5

5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y

7.89 (5Y), 8.13 (10Y), 8.30 (15Y), 8.29(20Y)

3.55 2.98 4.39

5.88 5.73 5.31 7.91

10.91 11.11 9.18

6.39

9.97 0.41

0.15

0.22

0.16 0.38 0.41

0.76

1.14 0.81

0.77

0.62

0.62

0.27 0.30

0.34 1.54

3.45

6.70

8.80

7.45 7.19

4.84

4.65

3.84

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Trili

un

OUTRIGHT REPO BANK REPO BI

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Spread (bid-ask)

Global Financial

Crisis

Eurozone sovereign debt crisis

[In Percentage] As of May 22 2015

Activities of the domestic bonds are growing Yields of Benchmark Series steadily decrease

Bid Ask Spread 10 Y Government Bond Turn Over 10 Y Government Bond

As of May 20, 2015

As of May 21, 2015

Secondary Market Performance

Spread 8.015bps

(ask 7.969%, bid

8.061%)

12

5.12

7.04

5.15

14.12 12.88

10.75 10.53

-

3.00

6.00

9.00

12.00

15.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Page 13: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

LCY 10 Year

Government

Bonds

Latest Yield YTD Change (BP)

MTD

Change

(BP)

HK 1.712 -18.4 +19.3

ID 8.095 +29.9 +38.5

JP 0.414 +8.5 +7.2

KR 2.515 -9.0 +9.1

MY 3.874 -27.3 +2.2

PH 4.347 +48.3 +3.3

SG 2.372 -+9.2 +12.6

TH 2.829 +10.0 +35.4

US 2.190 +1.9 +15.8

VN 6.730 -50.0 +8.0

• Market Watch as of May 22, 2015

• Source: Asian Bonds Online

Yield GS on peer’s market

13

Source: IDMA, Bloomberg, as of May 22, 2015

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y

22 May '15 15 May '15

22 Apr '15 9 Feb '12

23 Sep '11 27 Oct '08

13 Sep'05

[in percentage]

Tenor 22-May-15 15-May-15 22-Apr-15 9-Feb-12 23-Sep-11 27-Oct-08 13 Sep'05

1Y 7.10 6.99 6.62 3.30 5.29 19.37

2Y 7.50 7.53 7.09 4.21 6.01 17.35 14.59

3Y 7.69 7.65 7.29 4.33 6.13 19.93

4Y 7.79 7.68 7.39 4.39 6.54 17.17 14.14

5Y 7.89 7.80 7.43 4.44 6.69 17.46 14.96

6Y 7.91 7.85 7.44 4.79 6.81 17.05 15.24

7Y 7.97 7.86 7.45 4.88 7.08 17.06 16.17

10Y 8.13 8.09 7.57 5.02 7.43 20.91 15.75

15Y 8.30 8.21 7.76 5.47 7.83 16.65 14.12

20Y 8.29 8.22 7.80 5.96 8.20 20.27

30Y 8.61 8.58 8.11 6.17 8.29 20.37

Page 14: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Ownership of Tradable Domestic Government

Securities

In the end of January 2015, foreign investor ownership record the highest percentage of ownership, showing their

increasing appetite on the Indonesia’s government securities.

14

Ownership of IDR Tradable Government Securities (in Trillion IDR)

`

Banks 217,27 33,88% 265,03 36,63% 299,66 36,73% 335,43 33,70% 375,55 31,04% 372,66 29,95% 349,26 26,75% 367,03 27,92% 358,21 27,17% 368,68 27,66%

Govt Institutions (Bank Indonesia*) 17,42 2,72% 7,84 1,08% 3,07 0,37% 44,44 4,47% 41,63 3,44% 38,37 3,08% 85,40 6,54% 78,03 5,94% 90,22 6,84% 93,23 6,99%

Non-Banks 406,53 63,40% 450,75 62,29% 517,53 63,09% 615,38 61,83% 792,78 65,52% 833,42 66,97% 870,83 66,71% 869,60 66,15% 870,18 65,99% 871,03 65,35%

Mutual Funds 51,16 7,98% 47,22 6,53% 43,19 5,27% 42,50 4,27% 45,79 3,78% 47,16 3,79% 50,19 3,84% 53,34 4,06% 53,43 4,05% 53,88 4,04%

Insurance Company 79,30 12,37% 93,09 12,86% 83,42 10,17% 129,55 13,02% 150,60 12,45% 149,95 12,05% 155,54 11,91% 159,87 12,16% 160,63 12,18% 161,85 12,14%

Foreign Holders 195,76 30,53% 222,86 30,80% 270,52 32,98% 323,83 32,54% 461,35 38,13% 500,83 40,25% 504,08 38,61% 507,65 38,61% 506,58 38,42% 505,62 37,93%

Foreign Govt's&Central Banks** 50,06 6,10% 78,39 7,88% 103,42 8,55% 104,66 8,41% 101,41 7,77% 102,16 7,77% 101,52 7,70% 99,79 7,49%

Pension Fund 36,75 5,73% 34,39 4,75% 56,46 6,88% 39,47 3,97% 43,30 3,58% 43,00 3,46% 44,73 3,43% 45,16 3,44% 45,40 3,44% 45,54 3,42%

Securities Company 0,13 0,02% 0,14 0,02% 0,30 0,04% 0,88 0,09% 0,81 0,07% 0,65 0,05% 0,63 0,05% 0,65 0,05% 0,66 0,05% 0,74 0,06%

Individual 32,48 3,26% 30,41 2,51% 28,35 2,28% 47,63 3,65% 33,26 2,53% 32,92 2,50% 32,61 2,45%

Others 43,43 6,77% 53,05 7,33% 63,64 7,76% 46,68 4,69% 60,51 5,00% 63,49 5,10% 68,03 5,21% 69,68 5,30% 70,58 5,35% 70,77 5,31%

Total 641,21 100% 723,61 100% 820,27 100% 995,25 100% 1.209,96 100% 1.244,45 100% 1.305,49 100% 1.314,66 100% 1.318,62 100% 1.332,93 100%

1) Including ownership of SBSN (government sukuk).

2) Foreign are consisted of Private Banking, Fund/Asset Management, Securities, Insurance, Pension Fund.

3) Others are consisted of Corporation, Individual, Foundation.

*) Since February 8th, 2008, repo transaction of Government Securities to Bank Indonesia was included.

**) Since November 21, 2014, foreign government(s) was included to the same category as foreign central bank(s).

Jan-15 22-May-15Dec-14Dec-12Dec-11 Dec-13Dec-10 Mar-15 Apr-15 08-May-15

Page 15: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Foreign Investor Activity (yearly)

15

Foreign Net Buy/Sell up to March (YTD) & yearly total (IDR trillion)

Investors Net Buy/Sell (IDR trillion)

Source: Bank Indonesia

• Foreign investors (Asing) recorded a net buy of IDR44 trillion (year to date). While during the year of 2014 Foreign net buy reached IDR137.5 trillion.

• In April 2015 foreign investor recorded net buy of IDR46.8 trillion, thus during May (a.o May 8) net sell is recorded IDR2.79 trillion.

Note: *) as of May 18

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Domestic 55,3 49,0 121,7 77,2 76,4

Foreign 27,1 47,7 53,3 137,5 44,0

Total 82,4 96,7 175,0 214,7 120,5

27,1

47,7

53,3

137,5

44,0

25,7

6,0

28,2

53,2

46,8

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

April YTD

Page 16: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Foreign Investor Activity (as of May 8, 2015)

Net Buyer (Seller) - Non Resident Foreign Ownership - Proportion by Tenor [In IDR Trillion]

Foreign investors mostly dominated by high quality long term investors 16

As of May 22,2015

10% 12% 8% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

5%8%

3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%

18%17%

16% 13% 11% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13%

21%

25%

28% 32% 38% 34% 33% 33% 33% 34% 34% 34% 33% 34% 34% 35% 35% 35% 36%

46% 38% 45% 44% 41% 40% 41% 41% 42% 43% 42% 43% 42% 43% 43% 44% 44% 44% 44%

30,53% 30,80%

32,98%

32,54%33,64%

34,59%

35,72%

35,66%

36,33%

36,81%

37,30% 37,80%39,41%

38,13%40,25%40,03%

38,61%

38,51%37,93%

0,00%

10,00%

20,00%

30,00%

40,00%

50,00%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Mar-14

Apr-14 May-14

June 14

July 14 Aug 14

Sep-14

Oct-14 Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15Feb-15 Mar-15

Apr-15 22-May-

15

>10 >5-10 >2-5 >1-2 0-1 % Foreign Ownership to Total (RHS)

4,22

(19,98)

2,81

(1,76)

10,13

23,98

6,08

(0,37)

4,82

16,49 15,77 16,10

20,15

6,43

14,67 15,95

13,17 12,49

21,34

(19,84)

39,48

6,84

(3,59)

0,52

(0,29)

-0,08

-0,06

-0,04

-0,02

0

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,1

(30,00)

(20,00)

(10,00)

0,00

10,00

20,00

30,00

40,00

50,00

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Capital Inflows [LHS] capital inflows over foreign [RHS]

Page 17: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Crisis Management Protocol &

Bond Stabilization Framework

Page 18: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Pre-emptive Measures

Implementing Crisis Management Protocol

(CMP)

Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework

(BSF)

Enhancing coordination between government

institutions and continuous dialogue with market

participants

Specific policies in place to address crises

enacted in 2015 budget law

Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation

Crisis Management Protocol

Indicators to determine crisis level of

Government Securities Market condition (normal,

aware, alert, crisis)

Several market indicators that are monitored

daily:

- Yield of benchmark series;

- Exchange rate;

- Jakarta Composite Index;

- Foreign ownership in government securities

Policies to address the crisis at every level :

- Repurchase the government securities at

secondary market

- Postpone or stop the issuance

First Line of Defense

State’s Budget

Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing

and Risk Management

Investment fund at Government Investment

Agency (PIP) (min. level Aware)

State Owned Enterprises

(BUMN)’s Budget Related BUMNs (min. level Aware)

Social Security Organizing

Agency (BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Aware)

Second Line of Defense

State’s Budget

State General Treasury Account

(Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert)

Accumulated cash surplus (S18AL)

(min. Level Crisis)

State Owned Enterprises

(BUMN)’s Budget Related BUMNs (min. level Alert)

Social Security Organizing

Agency (BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Alert)

Bond Stabilization Framework

Implement Measures to Manage External Volatility …to mitigate sudden reversals

Page 19: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile

Page 20: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Maturity Profile Central Government Debt

as of End of April 2015

Maturity Profile of Central Debt Government by Currency (in trillion Rp)

Maturity Profile of Central Government Debt by Instruments (in trillion Rp)

20

020406080

100120140160180200220240

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

-206

0

Foreign Domestic

43,1%

56,9%

Foreign Domestik

020406080

100120140160180200220240

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

-206

0

Gov't Securities Loan

75,2%

24,8% Gov Sec

Loan

Page 21: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

21

Notes: • * Preliminary Figures

Outstanding Central Government Debt by Instrument

Nominal %

a. Foreign Loan (in billion USD) 68.6 68.4 63.6 58.1 53.9 53.0 24.7%

Bilateral 42.3 42.1 37.2 31.2 26.7 26.4 12.3%

Multilateral 23.2 23.5 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.0 10.7%

Commercial 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.2 3.7 3.5 1.6%

Suppliers 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%

b Domestic Loan (in billion USD) 0.0 0.1 0.19 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1%

c. Government Securities (in billion USD) 118.4 131.0 140.8 136.3 155.2 161.7 75.2%

Foreign Currency Denominated 18.0 21.6 27.4 32.8 36.7 39.6 18.4%

Rupiah Denominated 100.4 109.4 113.4 103.5 118.5 122.1 56.8%

Total Central Government Debt

(in billion USD)187.0 199.5 194.6 209.4 215.0

Total Central Government Debt

(in trilion IDR)1,681.7 1,808.9 2,371.4 2,604.9 2,781.0

Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1) 8,991.0 9,068.0 12,189.0 12,440.0 12,937.0

GDP (in trillion IDR) 6,864.1 7,831.7 9,524.7 10,542.7

Debt to GDP Ratio 24.5% 23.1% 23.0% 24.9% 24.7%

2010Description 2011 2012 2013

1,977.7

Apr-15

204.5

9,670.0

2014*)

8,615.7

Page 22: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

22 Notes: • * Preliminary Figures

Outstanding Central Government Debt by Currency

2010 2011

Original Currency

IDR (in trillion) 902.6 993.0 1,098.0 1,263.9 1,477.5 1,582.7

Gov't Securities 902.4 992.0 1,096.2 1,261.7 1,474.6 1,579.3

Loan 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.3

USD (in billion) 39.6 43.9 49.8 56.8 61.0 63.7

Gov't Securities 16.9 20.4 25.6 31.3 34.2 37.2

Loan 22.8 23.5 24.2 25.4 26.8 26.5

JPY (in billion) 2,689.8 2,589.8 2,498.8 2,395.3 2,204.0 2,177.9

Gov't Securities 95.0 95.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 155.0

Loan 2,594.8 2,494.8 2,343.8 2,228.8 2,049.0 2,022.9

EUR (in billion) 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.2 5.1 5.1

Gov't Securities - - - - 1.0 1.0

Loan 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.1

Other currencies

Equivalent in Billion USD

IDR 100.4 109.5 113.5 103.7 118.8 122.3 56.9%

USD 39.8 43.9 49.8 56.8 61.0 63.7 29.7%

JPY 33.1 33.4 29.1 22.8 18.5 18.3 8.5%

EUR 7.2 6.4 6.0 5.8 6.2 5.7 2.6%

Other currencies 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.0 4.9 2.3%

Total Eq. in Billion USD 187.0 199.5 204.5 194.9 209.4 215.0

Equivalent in Trillion IDR

IDR 902.8 993.0 1,098.0 1,263.9 1,477.5 1,582.7

USD 357.6 397.9 481.9 692.0 758.3 824.6

JPY 297.6 302.5 281.2 278.3 229.8 237.1

EUR 65.0 58.5 57.5 71.1 76.9 73.7

Other currencies 58.6 57.1 59.1 70.2 62.4 62.9

Total Eq. in Trillion IDR 1,681.7 1,808.9 1,977.7 2,375.5 2,604.9 2,781.0

Foreign Currency Portion 46.3% 45.1% 44.5% 46.8% 43.3% 43.1%

Exchange Rate Assumption USD/IDR 8,991 9,068 9,670 12,189.0 12,440.0 12,937.0

----------------Multiple Currencies -----------------------

2014*)

Apr-152012 2013

Page 23: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Central Government Debt Ratios

Debt to GDP Ratio Interest Payment to Revenue and

Expenditure Ratio

Debt Service to GDP Ratio Interest Payment to Tax Revenue &

Central Government Expenditure Ratio

23 Notes: Using GDP at Current Market Prices [2010 Version] * Preliminary Figures

8,9

%

7,7

%

7,5

%

7,9

%

8,7

%

8,5

%

7,2

%

6,7

%

6,8

%

7,6

%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Interest to Revenue Interest to Expenditure

12

,2%

10

,7%

10

,8%

10

,5%

11

,7%

12,7

%

10,6

%

9,9%

9,9%

11,2

%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

to Tax Revenue to Central Gov't Expenditure

24,5% 23,1% 23,0%

24,9% 24,7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

3,1%

2,9%

3,2%

2,9%

3,4%

2,00%

2,50%

3,00%

3,50%

4,00%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Page 24: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Risk Indicators

24 Risk indicators are improving amidst pressure from rupiah depreciation Risk indicators show improvements in interest rate risk and stability in exchange and refinancing risks

Interest Rate Risk Exchange Rate Risk

Debt Maturing in 1,3, and 5 years Average Time To Maturity (ATM) - Years

20,318,8

16,2 16,014,8 14,3

26,1 25,9

22,5 23,220,9 21,0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*) Q1-2015

Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing rate [%]

11,3 10,4 10,2 11,7 10,7 10,2

46,2 45,1 44,446,7

43,3 43,8

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*) Q1-2015

FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) **) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%)

9,46

9,32

9,70

9,60

9,74 9,75

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*) Q1-2015

ATM (in years)

7,1 8,2 7,28,6 7,7 8,4

20,822,7 21,5 21,8

20,2 21,4

34,2 34,632,4 33,4 33,9 34,6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*) Q1-2015

in < 1 year (%) in < 3 year (%) in < 5 year (%)

Notes: *)Preliminary Figures, **)Using GDP at Current Market Prices [2010 Version]

Page 25: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Primary Market Performance 2015: Global Bonds (USD)

25

RI0125 RI0145

Summary Terms of Offering

Issuer

Issuer Ratings

Issue Ratings

Issue

Size USD2 billion USD2 billion

Pricing / Settlement Date 8 January / 15 January 2015 8 January / 15 January 2015

Maturity 10 years due 15 January 2025 30 years due 15 January 2045

Coupon 4.125% payable semi annually 5.125% payable semi annually

Reoffer Yield / Price 4.200% / 99.393% 5.200% / 98.867%

Format Rule 144A / Reg S Rule 144A / Reg S

Listing SGX-ST SGX-ST

Total Book Order USD10.05 billion USD9.23 billion

Republic of Indonesia

Baa3 Stable (Moody’s), BB+ Stable (S&P), BBB- Stable (Fitch)

Baa3 (Moody’s), BB+ (S&P), BBB- (Fitch)

USD fixed rate

Allocation by Geography

Allocation by Investor Type

Indonesia13%

Asia15%

Europe24%

USA48%

RI0125

Indonesia4%

Asia20%

Europe23%

USA53%

RI0145RI0125

RI0125

RI0145

RI0145

Fund / Asset Managers

73%

Banks14%

Insurance / Pension Funds

9%

Private Banks2%

SWF2%

Fund / Asset Managers

75%

Banks8%

Insurance / Pension Funds

13%

Private Banks2%

SWF2%

Page 26: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

END OF PRESENTATION Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management Ministry of Finance of Republic of Indonesia Directorate of Government Debt Securities Frans Seda building, 4th floor, Jl. Wahidin Raya No. 1, Jakarta Pusat – Postal Code: 10710 Phone: +6221 3810175 Fax. : +6221 3846516 Website: www.djppr.kemenkeu.go.id

Page 27: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Key Initiatives to Develop Domestic Gov. Securities

Market

Facilitating the development of derivative instrument and Government securities repo:

• Develop a deep and liquid repo market, coordinate with FSA

• Facilitating the development of Government Bond Futures

Focused on a few benchmark series with large outstanding

Introduction of an electronic trading platform (ETP)

Strengthening Investor Relations (IR)

Launch a new primary dealer system

Increase domestic participation from key investors

Continuously improving bond stabilization framework

27

Page 28: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Securities Financing Realization 2014

*Adjusted by changes in Cash Management & Debt Switch

28

*(Million IDR)

Revised Budget

2014*

Realization

(ao Dec 31, 2014)*

% Realization to

Revised Budget

2014

Remaining target*

Government Securities Net 264,983,700 264,978,114 100.00% -

Government Securities Maturing in 2014 163,151,013 163,151,013 100.00% -

-Buyback 1,350,968 1,350,968 100.00% -

Issuance Need 2014* 428,134,713 428,129,127 100.00% 5,586

Government Debt Securities (GDS) 352,588,379

Domestic GDS 284,376,795

-Coupon GDS (Auction, Private Placement) 199,870,000

-Conventional T-Bills (Auction, Private Placement) 48,500,000

-SPNNT 20140303 12,400,000

-Retail Bonds 23,606,795

International Bonds 68,211,584

-USD Global Bonds 48,466,366

-USD Domestic Bonds 3,985,450

-Euro Denominated Bonds 15,759,767

-Samurai Bonds -

Government Islamic Debt Securities 75,540,748

Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 57,794,345

- IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated Bond/Project Based Sukuk) 38,471,000

- Retail Sukuk 19,323,345

Global Sukuk 17,746,403

Page 29: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Domestic Institutional Investors

Pension Fund Insurance Company

Mutual Fund

Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK),

data processsed

29

71,48

110,13

142,97

159,00

180,28

244,32

220,24

235,79

247,24

45%

37%

33%

28%25%

20% 25%

20% 21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

Government Securities (GS) Deposit Bond Stock Others Total Investasi % SBN (RHS)

90,1

108,4

141,5 136,5

156,4

169,5 164,2

167,2 173,8

180,4 185,1

27,91% 27,43%

21,90%22,64%

19,68%18,36%

19,46%18,33% 17,85%

16,88% 16,71%

0,00%

5,00%

10,00%

15,00%

20,00%

25,00%

30,00%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Feb-15

Govt. Securities (GS) Bond Deposit Stock

Mutual Funds Others Total Investment (in Trillion) % GS to Total Investment (RHS)

241,7

326,2

356,5 361,4

497,0 505,5

552,3

585,8 594,1610,1

629,8

27,09%

24,01%

21,77%

24,11%

19,74%20,71%

12,79%13,54%

23,69%22,79% 22,92%

0,00%

10,00%

20,00%

30,00%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Des-14 Feb-15

Govt. Securities (GS) Bond DepositStock Mutual Funds OthersTotal Investment (in Trillion) % GS to Total Investment (RHS)

Page 30: Directorate of Government Debt SecuritiesMay 22, 2015 · 3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework 4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile ... *as of May 11, 2015 Average

Individual & Retail Investors

Retail Govt Securities investors in primary market Individual Ownership

30

16,561

33,546

47,434

23,617

15,239 15,198

23,127

34,776 32,638

14,295 17,231 15,487 17,606 17,783

34,692

29,706

6,412

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Conventional Retail bonds Islamic Retail bonds Retail Saving bonds

3.28%

2.51%2.28% 2.08%

3.65%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

December 2013 Dec, 2014 Jan, 2015 Feb, 2015 March 27, 2015

Nominal (IDR Trillion) RHS

Percent