Discourses of Ethno-Discourses of Ethno-National Demography: National Demography:

Northern Ireland from the Northern Ireland from the 1991 Census to the Census 1991 Census to the Census

of 2001of 2001James Anderson, Owen McEldowney and Ian ShuttleworthJames Anderson, Owen McEldowney and Ian Shuttleworth

Centre for Spatial and Territorial Analysis and Research (C-STAR) Centre for Spatial and Territorial Analysis and Research (C-STAR) School of GeographySchool of GeographyQueen's University BelfastQueen's University BelfastBelfast BT7 1NNBelfast BT7 1NN

j.anderson@qub.ac.ukj.anderson@qub.ac.uki.shuttleworth@qub.ac.uki.shuttleworth@qub.ac.uko.mceldowney@qub.ac.uko.mceldowney@qub.ac.uk

International Population Geography Conference, University of St. Andrews, 11-14 August 2004

Discourses of Ethno-National Discourses of Ethno-National Demography: Northern Ireland Demography: Northern Ireland

from the 1991 Census to the from the 1991 Census to the Census of 2001Census of 2001

1.1. Political Demography and Ethnicity in Political Demography and Ethnicity in Divided SocietiesDivided Societies

2.2. Political Demography and Political Demography and Sectarianism in Northern IrelandSectarianism in Northern Ireland

3.3. The Structure of Sectarian Narratives The Structure of Sectarian Narratives on Demography 1991 -2001on Demography 1991 -2001

4.4. Conclusions and Comments on the Conclusions and Comments on the Public Use of Statistics and Public Use of Statistics and DemographyDemography

Political Demography in Political Demography in Divided SocietiesDivided Societies

Demography is highly politicised and Demography is highly politicised and politically useful in divided societiespolitically useful in divided societies

In public discourse demography can be In public discourse demography can be highly over-simplifiedhighly over-simplified

Analysis of sectarian demography provides Analysis of sectarian demography provides an insight into the mindset and the an insight into the mindset and the assumptions of the society assumptions of the society

Demographic discourse informs and justifies Demographic discourse informs and justifies (harmful) policy-making in such societies(harmful) policy-making in such societies

‘‘Ethnicisation’Ethnicisation’

The essentialisation of ethnic identity can The essentialisation of ethnic identity can be dangerously misleadingbe dangerously misleading

‘‘Ethnicisation’ can simplify the conflict and Ethnicisation’ can simplify the conflict and remove it from the realm of meaningful remove it from the realm of meaningful analysisanalysis

However, it is not practically possible to However, it is not practically possible to completely reject or ignore ethnic completely reject or ignore ethnic categoriescategories

Sectarian Demography in Sectarian Demography in Northern Ireland as a Case Northern Ireland as a Case

StudyStudy Sectarianism and head-counting a long-term Sectarianism and head-counting a long-term

feature in Ireland, but..feature in Ireland, but..

The demographic balance that created The demographic balance that created Northern Ireland no longer existsNorthern Ireland no longer exists

There is a large amount of specifically There is a large amount of specifically

sectariansectarian analysis of census data, with a analysis of census data, with a strong popular interest in it, and strong strong popular interest in it, and strong policy relevancepolicy relevance

Northern Ireland sectarianism is strongly Northern Ireland sectarianism is strongly reproduced despite little (obvious) reproduced despite little (obvious) dissimilarity between groupsdissimilarity between groups

The Structure of Sectarian The Structure of Sectarian Narratives in Northern Narratives in Northern

Ireland Ireland Master Narrative (A)Master Narrative (A) Catholic Growth and Protestant DeclineCatholic Growth and Protestant Decline

Relative number change in political space and Relative number change in political space and social spacesocial space

Population growth and decline, advance and retreatPopulation growth and decline, advance and retreat Repeated at every spatial scaleRepeated at every spatial scale Sectarian meanings, causes and effects – Sectarian meanings, causes and effects –

E.g. Population ‘pressure’, ‘ethnic cleansing’E.g. Population ‘pressure’, ‘ethnic cleansing’

Master Narrative (B)Master Narrative (B) Increasing Protestant-Catholic segregation Increasing Protestant-Catholic segregation

and polarisationand polarisation

Catholic Growth and Catholic Growth and Protestant DeclineProtestant Decline

Ulster Television's and Coopers and Ulster Television's and Coopers and Lybrand's Lybrand's The Numbers GameThe Numbers Game

“ “[Is] the writing on the wall for [Is] the writing on the wall for Protestants", "are their numbers down Protestants", "are their numbers down and consequently is their number and consequently is their number up?....Catholics who aspire to a United up?....Catholics who aspire to a United Ireland may soon outbreed them." Ireland may soon outbreed them."

The Numbers GameThe Numbers Game ITV, August 4th 1994 ITV, August 4th 1994

Catholic Growth and Catholic Growth and Protestant DeclineProtestant Decline

‘‘Nationalists ‘will become majority’’,Nationalists ‘will become majority’’, Irish News,Irish News, 19th October, 2000 19th October, 2000

‘‘Balance of Power: Protestant majority predicted to Balance of Power: Protestant majority predicted to fall sharply’,fall sharply’,

GuardianGuardian, April 12th, 2001, April 12th, 2001

‘‘Catholic Boom: Census shows Protestants will be Catholic Boom: Census shows Protestants will be minority in 10 years’minority in 10 years’

MirrorMirror, January 14th, 2002 , January 14th, 2002

‘‘Unionists filled with foreboding at loss of influence’Unionists filled with foreboding at loss of influence’ Independent,Independent, February 11 2002 February 11 2002

"I believe the "I believe the censuscensus will confirm the pro- will confirm the pro-union population is shrinking union population is shrinking to the extent to the extent that for the first time it will represent less that for the first time it will represent less than 50%.than 50%.

"It is understandable that unionists are "It is understandable that unionists are nervous and unsure about the futurenervous and unsure about the future given the demographic trend, but refusal given the demographic trend, but refusal to face change will not prevent it."to face change will not prevent it."

Belfast Telegraph December 16, 2002 Protestants drop below 50%: Belfast Telegraph December 16, 2002 Protestants drop below 50%: SF claim [our italics]SF claim [our italics]

The DUP said an all-Ireland was now a republican pipe-The DUP said an all-Ireland was now a republican pipe-dream and claimed Northern Ireland would remain part of dream and claimed Northern Ireland would remain part of the UK for another 50 years.the UK for another 50 years.[….][….]

[T]he figures were a "devastating" blow to Sinn Fein.[T]he figures were a "devastating" blow to Sinn Fein.

"Unionists can take heart. For the past four decades before "Unionists can take heart. For the past four decades before every every census,census, republicans and nationalists have republicans and nationalists have anticipated an closing of the Protestant/Catholic gap and anticipated an closing of the Protestant/Catholic gap and claimed demography would make a united Ireland claimed demography would make a united Ireland inevitable, " the east-Belfast assembly man said.inevitable, " the east-Belfast assembly man said.

"Each time they have been proven wrong.""Each time they have been proven wrong."

December 20, 2002, December 20, 2002, Irish NewsIrish News

Catholic Advance and Catholic Advance and Protestant Retreat in Protestant Retreat in

PortadownPortadownIn both Portadown and north Belfast there are alternative routes In both Portadown and north Belfast there are alternative routes

avoiding Catholic areas. They won’t take them. It would mean avoiding Catholic areas. They won’t take them. It would mean accepting that society, demography, politics, something has accepting that society, demography, politics, something has changed.changed.

They’re not going to. For the old men who run the order to accept They’re not going to. For the old men who run the order to accept reality would mean admittingreality would mean admitting theirs is a community in retreat theirs is a community in retreat; ; that change has happened, that Belfast is now a nationalist that change has happened, that Belfast is now a nationalist city, that a large chunk of Portadown is nationalist and can city, that a large chunk of Portadown is nationalist and can effortlessly elect nationalist councillors. They’re afraid that if effortlessly elect nationalist councillors. They’re afraid that if they give up the claim to be able to march where they always they give up the claim to be able to march where they always have done it’s the same as formally have done it’s the same as formally handing the area overhanding the area over to to the Fenians and that’s unthinkable. Who will save them from the Fenians and that’s unthinkable. Who will save them from themselves?themselves?

Brian Feeney, ‘Marches are Orange claims to supremacy’ in Brian Feeney, ‘Marches are Orange claims to supremacy’ in Irish News Irish News 1414thth June 2000 June 2000

Catholic Expansionism in Catholic Expansionism in North BelfastNorth Belfast

NATIONALISTS in North Belfast have hit out after a DUP NATIONALISTS in North Belfast have hit out after a DUP minister compared a campaign for better housing in the area minister compared a campaign for better housing in the area to Hitler’s notorious Nazi regime.to Hitler’s notorious Nazi regime.

The statement, issued by Minister for Social Development The statement, issued by Minister for Social Development Nigel Dodds, accused nationalists of pursuing the Nazi policy Nigel Dodds, accused nationalists of pursuing the Nazi policy of ‘lebensraum’ – a campaign of ethnic cleansing to make of ‘lebensraum’ – a campaign of ethnic cleansing to make way for the master race.[..]way for the master race.[..]

Mr Dodds accused nationalists of stirring up sectarian Mr Dodds accused nationalists of stirring up sectarian tensions and exacerbating the very serious situation on the tensions and exacerbating the very serious situation on the ground.ground.

“The reality is that ordinary Protestants on the ground have “The reality is that ordinary Protestants on the ground have seen the area being run down and neglected over the years seen the area being run down and neglected over the years having been forced out by the IRA and Sinn Fein Hitlerite having been forced out by the IRA and Sinn Fein Hitlerite Nazi tactics,” he said. “What we are now seeing is demands Nazi tactics,” he said. “What we are now seeing is demands led by nationalist politicians to take away the peace lines – led by nationalist politicians to take away the peace lines – it’s a recipe for civil war.” it’s a recipe for civil war.”

Jacqueline McIntyre, ‘Dodds in row over housing remarks’ 28 Jacqueline McIntyre, ‘Dodds in row over housing remarks’ 28 June 2000June 2000

Population ‘Pressure’ in Population ‘Pressure’ in ArdoyneArdoyne

Why this outbreak of malignancy? The Protestant intimidation Why this outbreak of malignancy? The Protestant intimidation of Catholic schoolchildren is not only evil, but also of Catholic schoolchildren is not only evil, but also apparently without rationality. Certainly, from a public apparently without rationality. Certainly, from a public relations point of view, the loyalists have a perverse genius relations point of view, the loyalists have a perverse genius for putting their worst foot forward. But as Richard Haass, for putting their worst foot forward. But as Richard Haass, President Bush's envoy to Northern Ireland, noted in a President Bush's envoy to Northern Ireland, noted in a masterly address earlier this week, the television images masterly address earlier this week, the television images supply only half of the story.supply only half of the story.

The demonstrations take place against a background of the The demonstrations take place against a background of the relentless retreat of the working class Unionistsrelentless retreat of the working class Unionists of north of north Belfast in the face of a Belfast in the face of a swaggering, self-confident nationalist swaggering, self-confident nationalist communitycommunity. The latter thinks itself to be . The latter thinks itself to be winning the winning the political, territorial and demographic gamepolitical, territorial and demographic game..

‘‘Belfast ghettos’ in Belfast ghettos’ in Daily TelegraphDaily Telegraph January 12, 2002 January 12, 2002

Increasing Segregation in Increasing Segregation in Northern IrelandNorthern Ireland

““In half of the council wards in Northern Ireland, 90 In half of the council wards in Northern Ireland, 90 per cent are Catholic or Protestant. The other half per cent are Catholic or Protestant. The other half are rapidly going the same way and we expect to are rapidly going the same way and we expect to see evidence of this in the 2001 census figures see evidence of this in the 2001 census figures when they are released.”when they are released.”

Brian Feeney, quoted in, Brian Feeney, quoted in, Bimpe Fatogun ‘Tearing down the bricks of hate’ Bimpe Fatogun ‘Tearing down the bricks of hate’ Irish NewsIrish News August 30, 2001August 30, 2001

THE results of the 2001 census in Northern Ireland THE results of the 2001 census in Northern Ireland are expected to show Catholics and Protestants are expected to show Catholics and Protestants are more deeply entrenched in their own are more deeply entrenched in their own communities than ever before. communities than ever before.

Bimpe Fatogun ‘Tearing down the bricks of hate’ Bimpe Fatogun ‘Tearing down the bricks of hate’ Irish NewsIrish News August 30, 2001August 30, 2001

Increasing Segregation Increasing Segregation in Belfastin Belfast

Segregation in Belfast has increased since the Segregation in Belfast has increased since the Northern Ireland peace process began, with Northern Ireland peace process began, with Protestant and Catholic enclaves more entrenched Protestant and Catholic enclaves more entrenched and violence on the rise, according to new research.and violence on the rise, according to new research.[…][…]

Dr Shirlow’s research has been backed up by an as yet Dr Shirlow’s research has been backed up by an as yet unpublished analysis of the 2001 census. This unpublished analysis of the 2001 census. This showed that in Belfast in 1991, 63 per cent of the showed that in Belfast in 1991, 63 per cent of the population lived in areas that were either more than population lived in areas that were either more than 90 per cent Protestant or 90 per cent Catholic. By 90 per cent Protestant or 90 per cent Catholic. By 2001, this had risen to 66 per cent, showing that 2001, this had risen to 66 per cent, showing that segregation was rising.segregation was rising.

‘‘Belfast more segregated since process began’ Belfast more segregated since process began’ Irish Irish TimesTimes January 4, 2002 January 4, 2002

Increasing Segregation – Increasing Segregation – McKittrick 2004McKittrick 2004

‘‘A province where Catholics and Protestants are strangers A province where Catholics and Protestants are strangers to each other’to each other’ IndependentIndependent April 6, 2004 April 6, 2004

More than two dozen peace lines have become permanent features, More than two dozen peace lines have become permanent features, some of them tastefully draped with ivy and shrubs to soften some of them tastefully draped with ivy and shrubs to soften their grim purpose, but their grim purpose, but the figures show that invisible yet potent the figures show that invisible yet potent boundary lines exist in most other parts of the city as wellboundary lines exist in most other parts of the city as well....[…][…]

While many assumed the ceasefires would result in a drawing While many assumed the ceasefires would result in a drawing together of the communities, they have in fact been followed by together of the communities, they have in fact been followed by near-total segregationnear-total segregation. The authorities therefore face a daunting . The authorities therefore face a daunting task in aiming to reverse the task in aiming to reverse the so far inexorable tide of so far inexorable tide of polarisationpolarisation and working towards a more tolerant and inclusive and working towards a more tolerant and inclusive society.society.[..][..]

This mindset means that segregation is destined to be the norm for This mindset means that segregation is destined to be the norm for many years to come. It is both a product of community division many years to come. It is both a product of community division and a factor which makes those divisions worse. and a factor which makes those divisions worse.

Demography in caricatureDemography in caricature

‘‘Ethnic cleansing’ or ‘chill’ leads to movement Ethnic cleansing’ or ‘chill’ leads to movement outout

Movement in leads to tensions and more Movement in leads to tensions and more segregation (rather than more mixing) segregation (rather than more mixing)

Catholics move into Protestant areas, and the Catholics move into Protestant areas, and the number of Catholics increases with high birth-number of Catholics increases with high birth-raterate

Catholics move in and Protestants move outCatholics move in and Protestants move out

1991 discourses vs. 20011991 discourses vs. 2001 Catholic growth, Protestant decline narrative Catholic growth, Protestant decline narrative

at Northern Ireland level became the major at Northern Ireland level became the major discoursediscourse

Addition of high media profile ‘interface’ Addition of high media profile ‘interface’ demographic struggles – ‘Holy Cross’, ‘Siege demographic struggles – ‘Holy Cross’, ‘Siege of Drumcree’, ‘Ethnic cleansing in Short of Drumcree’, ‘Ethnic cleansing in Short Strand/Cluan place’ Strand/Cluan place’

Increasing segregation and polarisation not Increasing segregation and polarisation not such a ‘shock’ story – now more of a piece of such a ‘shock’ story – now more of a piece of conventional wisdom (e.g. East/West Divide)conventional wisdom (e.g. East/West Divide)

But the structure of narratives has remained But the structure of narratives has remained largely the same, despite the changes in the largely the same, despite the changes in the political and demographic landscape (e.g. political and demographic landscape (e.g. GFA and new migration)GFA and new migration)

Objectivity and public Objectivity and public discoursediscourse

Media discourse on demography is Media discourse on demography is part real, part exaggerated, and part real, part exaggerated, and partly straight falsepartly straight false

‘‘Realism’ depends on what categories Realism’ depends on what categories are used for analysisare used for analysis

Even the ‘real’ discourses may help Even the ‘real’ discourses may help generate more of that realitygenerate more of that reality

Discourse may have element of truth Discourse may have element of truth but still not be constructivebut still not be constructive

Finally…Finally…

The problem of over-‘ethnicised’ and The problem of over-‘ethnicised’ and essentialist analysis…essentialist analysis…

Abuse of limited data, lack of context Abuse of limited data, lack of context and comparisonand comparison

Over-generalisation and hypeOver-generalisation and hype The exclusion of other categories, The exclusion of other categories,

especially trans-ethnic categories of especially trans-ethnic categories of class – the main conceptual victims of class – the main conceptual victims of ‘ethnicisation’.‘ethnicisation’.