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Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment
Engelsk mal: Startside Alternativ 2
Norwegian Ministryof Climate and Environment
Disruptive technologies and demand riskTerje Kronen, Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment
IAIA Montreal, 7th April 2017
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Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment
Engelsk mal: Tekst uten kulepunkter
Norway: Renewable power, exporting oil & gas
2
• 98% renewable power generation
• 68% renewable share in the total energy mix
• Large exporter of oil and gas
• Petroleum one of 3 largest GHG emission sources
• Goal of reducing GHG emission with 40% by 2030,
and become a low carbon society by 2050
• A future for oil and gas?
The Alta hydro power plant. Photo: Statkraft
Oil platform Kristin. Photo: Statoil
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Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment
Engelsk mal: Tekst uten kulepunkter
Drivers towards a renewable power system
3
Source: Statkraft Source SF
Source: New Climate Economy
Battery
costs Energy
density
Based on BMW i3 Forum www.mybmvi3.com
Source: Scatec Solar
Renewable energy growing
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Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment
Engelsk mal: Tekst uten kulepunkter
Drivers for energy efficiency and reduced energy demand
4
• Digitalization
• Artificial Intelligence
• Internet of Things
• LED technology
• Lightning
• Air-conditioning
• Appliances
• New building codes
• From products to
service and function
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Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment
Engelsk mal:Tekst med kulepunkter
An energy sector transition consistent with well below 2°C
5Source:IEA/ IRENA Perspectives for the Energy Transition 2017
IEA findings
• Fossil fuels would halve between 2014 and 2050
• By 2050, 95% of electricity will be low carbon
• Investment in new oil and gas supply needed
• Natural gas important in the transition
IRENA findings
• 2050: Fossil fuels would stand at a third of today’s level
• Oil demand 45% of todays level
• CCS only in the industry sector
• Renewables to move into heat supply and transport
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Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment
Engelsk mal: Tekst uten kulepunkter
IEA: Power generation by source in the 66% 2°C Scenario
6
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Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment
Engelsk mal: Tekst uten kulepunkter
IEA: Global transport fuel mix in the 66% 2°C Scenario
7
Source: Av FaceMePLS. The Hague, https://commons.wikipedia.org https.//commons.Wikimedia.org
Photo: Harald M. Valderhaug
By 2050, 70% of new cars would be electric
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Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment
Engelsk mal: Tekst uten kulepunkter
IEA: Energy demand by fuel in buildings 66% 2°C Scenario
8
Energy efficiency: Improvements must double to 2,5% per year
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Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment
Engelsk mal: Tekst uten kulepunkter
9
• Renewable energy and energy efficiency will
be most important for the energy transition
• The share of fossil fuels in the global energy
mix will be reduced to 35 – 50%, coal most
affected
• Disruptive technologies will accelerate new
business models
• New policy measures to achieve Paris
Agreement commitments will contribute
A future for fossil fuels?
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Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment
Engelsk mal:Tekst med kulepunkter
Oil and gas exploration exposed to increased demand risk
CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/
Norwegian Expert Commission on
Green Competiveness
Ms Connie Hedegaard,
Former EU Commissioner Climate Action
Mr Idar Kreutzer.
CEO Finance Norway
• Norwegian government should consider whether the
increased demand risk give reason to make changes in the
petroleum policy framework
• The authorities should demand sensitivity analyses for
demand and carbon price in relation to development and
production of eventual new fields