disruptive technologies: impacts on transportation...
TRANSCRIPT
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Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues
Thursday, September 6, 20181:00-2:30 PM ET
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
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The Transportation Research Board has met the standards and
requirements of the Registered Continuing Education Providers Program.
Credit earned on completion of this program will be reported to RCEP. A
certificate of completion will be issued to participants that have registered
and attended the entire session. As such, it does not include content that
may be deemed or construed to be an approval or endorsement by RCEP.
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Purpose
Examine the impacts of technologies such as connected/autonomous vehicles and ridesharing services on transportation revenues.
Learning Objectives
At the end of this webinar, you will be able to:
• List the impacts that new mobility services are having on revenue streams for transportation programs
• Describe the impacts of autonomous vehicles and e-commerce on local government budgeting
• Explain how transportation network companies are impacting airport finances
• Describe the key issues lenders and bondholders consider in assessing impacts of disruptive technologies
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Growth and Impacts of New Mobility Services
Bruce SchallerSchaller ConsultingTRB Webinar, Sept. 6, 2018
Photo: New York Times
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What’s Happening
Road Forward
Impacts in Big Cities
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Source: Uber
# Uber Drivers Making at Least 1 Trip/month
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+23%+34%
Source: The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, Schaller Consulting, July 2018.
Ridership by end of 2018:
• Taxi/TNC 4.8 billion
• Local bus 4.7 billion(Annual rate)
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Trips Concentrated in Large, Dense Metro Areas
Source: The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, Schaller Consulting, July 2018.
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… especially downtown
San Francisco
New York
Chicago
Seattle
Sources: Shared Use Mobility Center, “Broadening Understanding,” SFCTA “TNCs Today,” Schaller “Unsustainable?”
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• Affluent
• Educated
• Skew younger
TNC users characteristics
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• 12-22% would not have made particular trip without app-based service
• 48% of TNC users go more places because of availability TNC ride services
• 78% of Uber users extremely or very satisfied
Sources: Kulkarni, “Uber and Ride-Sharing.” Henao, “Impacts of Ridesourcing.” Clewlow and Mishra, “Adoption, Utilization and Impacts of Ride-Hailing in the U.S.”
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Avoid drinking and driving
Quicker/more reliable
Transit inconvenient
Parking expensive/difficult
More comfortable
Auto users
Transit users
Source: The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, Schaller Consulting, July 2018.
Reliability/comfort/easy payment Taxi users
40% would use if
TNC not available
60% would use if
TNC not available
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Road Forward
Impacts in Big Cities
What’s Happening
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TNC Taxi Total
San Francisco 75 6 81 92%Seattle 20 3 23 88%Philadelphia 31 5 36 86%Boston 35 6 41 85%Washington DC 45 12 57 79%New York City 159 167 326 49%
City2017 trips (mill ions)
Pct TNC
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TNCs added 976 million miles of driving to New York City streets since 2013 -Schaller Consulting report
TNC usage increased vehicle miles traveled by 85% in the Denver area
- Alejandro Henao, Ph.D. dissertation
“Ride-hailing is adding new auto trips … [and] exacerbating congestion on the region’s roadways.”
- Boston-area planning agency
Most VMT “generated by TNCs occurs during AM and PM peak hours … likely exacerbating existing peak period congestion.”
- S.F. County Transportation Authority
“Ride-hailing is likely adding vehicle miles traveled in [seven] major cities.”- Clewlow and Mishra, UC-Davis
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Source: The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, Schaller Consulting, July 2018.
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Credit: Christopher Yuen, blog post on Human Transit
Declining Transit Ridership (2016-17)
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Boston area (MBTA) rider survey:
Don’t use TNCs
Use transit less
Use transit more
No change
Age 18-44
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Source: The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, Schaller Consulting, July 2018.
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What’s Happening
Road Forward
Impacts in Big Cities
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• Public and private contracts:Via and Chariot
• Shared• Straight line (minimize turns)• Walk to pick-up location
Uber Express POOL and Lyft SharedRides
• Bike share• Dockless electric scooters
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Distinctive markets & services
• TNCs and microtransit (Via, Chariot) serve three distinct markets, each with distinctive implications for transit and city transportation systems.
1. Premium door-to-door service (mostly not shared or subsidized)
• UberX and Lyft• Traditionally served by taxis• TNCs greatly expanded this market• Competes directly with PT
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Distinctive markets & services
• TNCs and microtransit (Via, Chariot) serve three distinct markets, each with distinctive implications for transit and city transportation systems.
1. Premium door-to-door service (mostly not shared or subsidized)
• UberX and Lyft• Traditionally served by taxis• TNCs greatly expanded this market• Competes directly with PT
2. Trips difficult to serve with fixed-route services (generally subsidized but mostly not shared)
• Senior and disabled (except wheelchair) programs• Dispersed trip origin/destinations• Examples: Arlington (Tx), Innisfil (Ontario), AC Transit, OCTA and LA pilots, MBTA paratransit pilot• Complement PT
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Distinctive markets & services
• TNCs and microtransit (Via, Chariot) serve three distinct markets, each with distinctive implications for transit and city transportation systems.
1. Premium door-to-door service (mostly not shared or subsidized)
• UberX and Lyft• Traditionally served by taxis• TNCs greatly expanded this market• Competes directly with PT
2. Trips difficult to serve with fixed-route services (generally subsidized but mostly not shared)
• Senior and disabled (except wheelchair) programs• Dispersed trip origin/destinations• Examples: Arlington (Tx), Innisfil (Ontario), AC Transit, OCTA and LA pilots, MBTA paratransit pilot• Complement PT
3. Shared, subsidized, straight-line service (generally need subsidies)
• Chariot, Via, UberPOOL Express, Lyft Shared Rides• Jitney-type service enhanced by smartphones and routing algorithms• ~ 4-20 passenger vehicles• Complement or compete with PT depending on situation
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Distinctive markets & services
• TNCs and microtransit (Via, Chariot) serve three distinct markets, each with distinctive implications for transit and city transportation systems.
1. Premium door-to-door service (mostly not shared or subsidized)
• UberX and Lyft• Traditionally served by taxis• TNCs greatly expanded this market• Competes directly with PT
2. Trips difficult to serve with fixed-route services (generally subsidized but mostly not shared)
• Senior and disabled (except wheelchair) programs• Dispersed trip origin/destinations• Examples: Arlington (Tx), Innisfil (Ontario), AC Transit, OCTA and LA pilots, MBTA paratransit pilot• Complement PT
3. Shared, subsidized, straight-line service (generally need subsidies)
• Chariot, Via, UberPOOL Express, Lyft Shared Rides• Jitney-type service enhanced by smartphones and routing algorithms• ~ 4-20 passenger vehicles• Complement or compete with PT depending on situation
• Need public policy intervention to ensure that new services serve the goals of mobility, safety, equity and environmental sustainability. Includes regulation, street allocation, subsidies/pricing.
• All of this must, fundamentally, be built around attractive high-capacity PT network
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
Urbanism NextNico Larco, AIA
Director, Urbanism Next CenterProfessor, Dept. of Architecture
Co-Director, Sustainable Cities InitiativeUniversity of [email protected]
@nicolarco
New Mobility Impacts on Municipal Budgets
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Urbanism Next
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
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MaaSBikeshareScootershareCarshareRideshareTransit(AVs)
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
MaaS
ElectrifiedMobility
VehicleCitations
Numberof Cars
Amount ofParking
BikeshareScootershareCarshareRideshareTransit(AVs)
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Transportation Fiscal Impacts
$- $400,000 $800,000 $1,200,000 $1,600,000 $2,000,000
Parking Fees and Citations
Vehicle Impounding Fees
Traffic Citation
Vehicle Registration Fees
Gasoline Taxes
25 Largest US Cities, FY16, Governing.com
$697 Million
$677 Million
$593 Million
$81 Million
Impacts on Municipal Budgets
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
$- $400,000 $800,000 $1,200,000 $1,600,000 $2,000,000
Parking Fees and Citations
Vehicle Impounding Fees
Traffic Citation
Vehicle Registration Fees
Gasoline Taxes
25 Largest US Cities, FY16, Governing.com
$697 Million
$677 Million
$593 Million
$81 Million
$2.8 Billion
Transportation Fiscal Impacts
Impacts on Municipal Budgets
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10% Reduction IN Parking Revenue in Past 2 years
San Francisco
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10%-25% Reduction of TOTAL Transport Revenue
Credit: Rebecca Lewis, University of Oregon
PORTLAND, TIGARD, TUALATIN PROJECTION
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Credit: Rebecca Lewis, University of Oregon
Existing Mechanisms- Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fees- Cordon Pricing- On/Off Ramp Fees
TRANSPORTATION REVENUE OPTIONS
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Credit: Rebecca Lewis, University of Oregon
NEW Mechanisms
TRANSPORTATION REVENUE OPTIONS
- Empty Seat Tax - Fleet Parking Fees- Use of Curb Access- GPS and Data Fees
-Mobile Business Tax- Electricity Fees- Charging Stations- Advertisement Tax
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Non-Transportation Fiscal Impacts
Impacts on Municipal Budgets
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SF: Average Const. Cost/Unit = $550/gsfSF: Average Const. Cost/Stall = $130/gsf= 24% burden on unit costs @1.5 spaces/unit
Gerry Tierney, Perkins + Will
Sightline
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
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Dispersion / Sprawl- Reduced ‘Friction’ of Travel Cost- Appetite for Further Commute- What Will Limit Urban Dispersion?
Zhang – Georgia Tech
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
Avs are nota Transportation Issue
Urbanism Next University of Oregon
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
Cities that think ahead,stay ahead
Urbanism Next University of Oregon
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon http://urbanismnext.com
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
THE IMPACTS OFAUTONOMOUS VEHICLES AND E-COMMERCE
on Local Government Budgeting and Finance
SUSTAINABLE CITIES INITIATIVE
UNIVERSITY OF
OREGON PORTLAND
BENJAMIN Y. CLARKSCHOOL OF PLANNING, PUBLIC
POLICY & MANAGEMENTe | [email protected]
NICO LARCOSCHOOL OF ARCHITECTURE &
ENVIRONMENTe | [email protected]
ROBERTA F MANNSCHOOL OF LAW
urbanismAUGUST 2017
URBANISMNEXT.UOREGON.EDU
THE IMPACTS OFAUTONOMOUS VEHICLES AND E-COMMERCE
on Local Government Budgeting and Finance
SUSTAINABLE CITIES INITIATIVE
UNIVERSITY OF
OREGON PORTLAND
BENJAMIN Y. CLARKSCHOOL OF PLANNING, PUBLIC
POLICY & MANAGEMENTe | [email protected]
NICO LARCOSCHOOL OF ARCHITECTURE &
ENVIRONMENTe | [email protected]
ROBERTA F MANNSCHOOL OF LAW
urbanismAUGUST 2017
URBANISMNEXT.UOREGON.EDU
urbanismnext.uoregon.edu/research-papers/
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© 2018 – Urbanism Next, University of Oregon
Urbanism NextNico Larco, AIA
Director, Urbanism Next CenterProfessor, Dept. of Architecture
Co-Director, Sustainable Cities InitiativeUniversity of [email protected]
@nicolarco
New Mobility Impacts on Municipal Budgets
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0
TRANSPORTATION NETWORK COMPANIES: Revenue Impacts, Challenges, andOpportunities for Airport Operators
Peter Mandle
Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation RevenuesSeptember 6, 2018
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1
Today’s Presenter
• Executive Vice President, InterVISTAS Consulting
• Over 30 years of experience helping airport’s address their ground transportation and parking challenges
• Former Chair of TRB Aviation Group and Committee on Terminals and Ground Access
Peter Mandle
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2
Airport Operating RevenueParking, rental cars, and ground transportation contribute 60% of non-aeronautical revenues and more than 25% of overall airport operating revenues
Aeronautical Revenue$11,751
54%
Non-Aeronautical
Revenue$10,083
46% Land & Non-Terminal, $749 ,
7%
Retail & Duty Free, $774 , 8%
Food and Beverage, $803 , 8%
Services, $482 , 5%
Hotel, $227, 2%
Parking & Ground
Transportation,$4,228 , 42%
Rental cars,
$1,843 , 18%Other,
$978 , 10%
Total 2017 Operating Revenues for all U.S. Commercial Service Airports (in millions)
Source: FAA, AAS-400, CATS Report 127.
Total Operating Revenue: $21,834
Total Non-Aeronautical Revenue: $10,083
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3
Two Airline Rate Setting Methods
Residual
Risk of lower non-aeronautical revenue
• Airlines agree to pay any costs not allocated to other users
• Airlines assume financial risk• Airport is guaranteed to break even
Higher airline rates & charges leading to potential loss of air service
Compensatory
Risk of lower non-aeronautical revenue
• Airlines pay a set rate• Airport assumes financial risk • Airport has opportunity to earn
higher revenues
Insufficient airport revenue to pay operating expenses, debt service, or fund capital improvements
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4
ACRP Synthesis 84 Research Approach
• At time of research, TNCs were permitted to operate at >90 U.S. airports, but few for more than 18 months
• Little available relevant literature
• Limited before/after data available
• Conducted original surveys:– Online survey of the 100 largest
U.S. airports (73 responded)– Telephone interviews with/additional
data gathered from 18 airports
• Analyzed and summarized results
Notes: • Data in this presentation was current as of Fall 2016; rapid changes in industry • Updated data, being gathered as part of ACRP 01-35, to be available later this year
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5
Airport Fees Charged TNCs
98% of airports with a TNC permit charged one or more of the following fees:
Per-trip fees (87%)
• Pick-up only (59%)• Drop-off and pick-up (41%)
Annual permit fees (21%)
• 60% less than $2,000/year• 40% greater than $2,000/year
(maximum $12,000)
Activation fees (17%)
• Most less than $10,000• Three more than $50,000
Annual permit fees (21%)
• Per-trip fees exceeded MAG at all airports
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6
Survey Data Summarized by Airport Hub Size
FAA defines airport hub size by the proportion of annual U.S. commercial aircraft boardings an airport serves
S
Small hub: At least 0.05% but less than 0.25% (28
respondents)
M
Medium hub: At least 0.25% but less than
1.0% (20 respondents)
L
Large hub: 1.0% or
more (24 respondents)
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Per-trip Fees Charged TNCs – Pick-up Only
0
1
2
3
4
$1.00 -$1.49
$1.50 -$1.99
$2.00 -$2.49
$2.50 -$2.99
$3.00 -$3.49
$3.50 -$3.99
$4.00 -$4.49
$4.50 -$4.99
$5.00 -$5.49
Num
ber o
f Airp
orts
Large-hub Medium-hub Small-hub
Note: 2016 data, more airports now charging >$3.00 per trip
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8
Per-trip Fees Charged TNCs – Pick-up and Drop-off
0
1
2
3
4
$1.00 -$1.49
$1.50 -$1.99
$2.00 -$2.49
$2.50 -$2.99
$3.00 -$3.49
$3.50 -$3.99
$4.00 -$4.49
$4.50 -$4.99
$5.00 -$5.49
Num
ber o
f Airp
orts
Large-hub Medium-hub Small-hub
Note: 2016 data, more airports now charging >$3.00 per trip
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Less than $100,000
$100,000 to $1,000,000
$1,000,000 to $5,000,000
$5,000,000 to $20,000,000
More than $20,000,000
Number of Airports
Large-hub
Medium-hub
Small-hub
Annual Revenue Received from TNCs
• Depends on types of fees, number of passengers
• Revenues expected to increase as market matures
• Of 31 reporting airports, 14 received over $1,000,000/year
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Impacts on Airport Operations
10% to 30%decrease in taxicab trips
18% to 30%decrease in shared-ride customers
10% to 20%decrease in private vehicles
5% to 10%decrease in parking transactions
4% to 13%decrease in rental car transactions
46% reported an increase in roadway congestion
When adjusted for changes in terminating airline passengers, the data showed:
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11
Impacts on Airport Revenues (Original Survey)
Based on the limited sample:
• While many airports receive significant revenuefrom TNCs, these revenues are less than the foregone parking and rental car revenues at most airports
• The decline in airport revenues is expected to increase as more passengers use TNCs
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Impacts on Airport Revenues—Informal Update
• Since 2016, more airports recognize adverse impacts of TNCS
– Decrease often masked by increases in passenger volumes, parking rates, and rental car fees
– Some locations report decline in total revenues, not just per passenger
– Rate of decline is less year over year, but continues
• To recoup lost revenues, seeking new business and revenue models:– Increasing fees charged TNCs – Differential TNC fees—higher fees for use of prime location– Fees for use of curbside areas (all vehicles)– Fees for airport access (all vehicles)– Differential airport access fees—higher fees for use of primary curbside
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13
Status of Airport TNC Research
• Synthesis 84 available for free on the TRB website:
http://www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/176493.aspx
• ACRP Oversight Committee decided to expand upon and update the data collected (as recommended by the research panel)
– Transportation Network Companies (TNCs): Impacts to Airport Revenues and Operations(ACRP 01-35)
– Rethinking Airport Parking Facilities to Protect and Enhance Non-Aeronautical Revenue (ACRP 03-47)
• Research initiated in March 2018, ACRP 01-35 survey data to released this fall.
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Strategic policy in the era of Uber, Lyft, and Microtransit
Chris Pangilinan | Program Director | TransitCenter@cap_transport | @transitcenter
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Space is a precious resource in cities
Transit makes the best use of scarce city space
6 September 2018TRB Webinar: Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues2
Why tech won’t kill transit:
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Via City of Meunster, Germany; in Planetizen: https://www.planetizen.com/node/80084/nimby-obstruction-and-density-paradox
3 6 September 2018TRB Webinar: Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues
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Via Jon Orcutt
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Graph courtesy of Bruce Schaller; data from Uber
Uber et al. are growing rapidly# Uber drivers making at least one trip per month
6 September 2018TRB Webinar: Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues
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Public transit
Taxicab
Personal auto
Walking/Biking
Not make the trip
15-33%
1-40%
7-40%
10-24%
8-22%
Sources: Clewlow and Mishra, “Adoption, Utilization and Impacts of Ride-Hailing in the U.S.” Henao, “Impacts of Ridesourcing.” Rayle, et. al., “Just a Better Taxi?” Adapted from Schaller Consulting: http://www.schallerconsult.com/rideservices/index.html
TNCs instead of…
6 6 September 2018TRB Webinar: Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues
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What does new tech bring?• Apps make it easier to call on-demand options• “Improved customer experience”• AVs will bring down cost of access (someday?)
Opportunity to create *people-oriented* transportation policy in general—not just policy “for Uber, Lyft, AVs, and ‘Microtransit’.”
7 6 September 2018TRB Webinar: Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues
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Disruption isn’t just technological:
8
Delay: More cars, double-parking = more congestion
Equity: increasingly unequal access
Livability: More driving, more air pollution
Safety: Uber/Lyft blocking bike lanes, crosswalks
6 September 2018TRB Webinar: Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues
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What else is being disrupted?
9
Parking Revenue
Urban Indy: http://www.urbanindy.com/2012/01/27/friday-fun-downtown-indy-parking-lot-map/
6 September 2018TRB Webinar: Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues
Taxi revenue
Fare revenue
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Cities have solutions on handStructure pilots to measure impact through careful design and by collecting baseline and performance data
Align new services and technologies with public sector goals via transportation policy and street management
Regulate to protect the public and maximize learning opportunities (e.g. via data reporting requirements)
10 6 September 2018TRB Webinar: Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues
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Look to safe streets movement for strategic inspiration
11Photos via Curbed: https://ny.curbed.com/2017/4/19/15358234/times-square-snohetta-before-after-photos
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Pilots: Need to ask “why” before “how”
• No special treatment for “emerging” services
• What problem(s) might emerging mobility services help solve?
• Use public procurement process to ensure pilots’ goals are met
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Pilots should lead to learning
13
• Centennial, CO, hired a consultant to analyze data from first- and last-mile pilot
• Lyft agreed to share data with the consultant
• Final report reports on progress in meeting concrete goals articulated before pilot
Via City of Centennial: http://www.centennialco.gov/uploads/files/Government/Iteam/Go%20Centennial%20Final%20Report_for%20web.pdf
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Don’t hold your breath for the data
14
• Try negotiating for it but… • …don’t expect to get it• Cities can collect their own
data• Cities can choose only to work
with companies who share• Cities can sue >>>
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Major policy levers (“how”)Street space allocation
Pricing + incentives
Establishing values
15
Via SFMTA: https://www.sfmta.com/getting-around-san-francisco
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Street space allocation• Parking rule changes• Dedicated travel lanes (bus,
HOV, taxi)• Curbside access
DC DOT• Worked with BID to ease
late-night FHV drop-offs• Repurposed parking spaces
during late night hours
16
Curb Appeal. NACTO, 2017. https://nacto.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NACTO-Curb-Appeal-Curbside-Management.pdf
6 September 2018TRB Webinar: Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues
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Pricing and Incentives• FHV trip fees• Tolling• Charging for curbside access• Cordon pricing• Mileage-/hourly-based use
charges
17 6 September 2018TRB Webinar: Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues
Chicago (Mayor’s Office)• Private data reporting required• Recently increased fee assessed per trip;
revenue funds transit
New York (Taxi & Limousine Commission)• Public data reporting required• Accessibility requirements• New fee on Manhattan trips; revenue
funds transit• New vehicle license cap (WAV exception)
and minimum wage
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Establishing ValuesSFMTA and SFCTA Emerging Mobility Guiding Principles
18 6 September 2018TRB Webinar: Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues
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Cities have powerful tools at their disposal, but have not been assertive in using them. That’s starting to change.
• Develop pilots strategically, to learn and build momentum• Implement policies to prioritize people, not vehicles• Use the regulatory authority you have
Chris Pangilinan | [email protected] | @cap_transport
Slides by Zak Accuardi @zaccuardi19 6 September 2018TRB Webinar: Disruptive Technologies: Impacts on Transportation Revenues
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Today’s Speakers• Nate Macek, WSP, [email protected]• Bruce Schaller, Schaller Consulting,
[email protected]• Nico Larco, University of Oregon,
[email protected]• Peter Mandle, InterVistas Consulting, Inc., [email protected]• Chris Pangilinan, TransitCenter,
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Get Involved with TRB• Getting involved is free!• Join a Standing Committee (http://bit.ly/2jYRrF6)• Become a Friend of a Committee
(http://bit.ly/TRBcommittees)– Networking opportunities– May provide a path to become a Standing Committee
member• Sponsoring Committee: ABE10• For more information: www.mytrb.org
– Create your account– Update your profile
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Receiving PDH credits
• Must register as an individual to receive credits (no group credits)
• Credits will be reported two to three business days after the webinar
• You will be able to retrieve your certificate from RCEP within one week of the webinar
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