disturbance in the force: economic data that keeps me up at night
TRANSCRIPT
Disturbance in the ForceEconomic data that keep me up at night
Edward [Ned] HillProfessor of Public Affairs and City & Regional PlanningFaculty Member of the Ohio Manufacturing Institute
Potential GDP versus Actual GDPThe gap is closing
Hill November 18, 2015 2
12-month quarterly change in GDPHovering around 2%--not bad
Hill November 18, 2015 3
Change in jobs since the start of the Great RecessionUp more than 4 million jobs
Hill November 18, 2015 4
Labor Market
Ohio: Change in nonfarm employment since the start of the Great Recession: Still down
Hill November 18, 2015 5
Labor Market
12-month percent change in employmentGrowth in private sector; Temp employment still strong
Hill November 18, 2015 6
Labor Market
Unemployment RatesOhio consistently below U.S. & benchmark states
Hill November 18, 2015 7
Labor Market
U.S. Annual Labor Force Participation Rates by AgeAdult Men down to 81%; Where are the kids?
Hill November 18, 2015 8
Labor Market
Annual Labor Force Participation Rates in the United States, Ohio and Ohio’s benchmark states
Hill November 18, 2015 9
Labor Market
U.S. Average number of hours workedClimbing but not at 39
Hill November 18, 2015 10
Labor Market
Two measures of the unemployment rateBoth dropping, Under-employment rate near 10%
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Labor Market
Owners’ Equity in Real EstateNearly doubled since bottom of recession
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Housing
Deleveraging of the Housing Market continuesMortgage debt as percent of home equity
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Housing
Energy prices are the stimulus program
Hill November 18, 2015 14
Energy markets
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Energy---Natural Gas Prices
Capacity Utilization Stuck or the Start of the 4th Industrial Revolution—the digital factory?
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Manufacturing
Industry 4.0The German View
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Manufacturing
Industry 4.0
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Manufacturing
Are manufacturers ordering new tools and equipment?Nondefense capital goods—sort of stuck
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Manufacturing
Monthly Automobile ProductionAround 300,000 units a month
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Manufacturing
Annualized Automobile & Light Truck Sales
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Manufacturing
Dollar increases in 12.1% in value over the past year
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Currency
Euro: Annual increase of Dollar 15.5%
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Currency
Yen is dropping: Annual Change is 0.5%The days of 108 Yen are long gone
Hill November 18, 2015 24
Currency
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China “Economic Deceleration”
CHINATruth-Telling on China's Economy16 NOV 18, 2015 5:00 PM ESTBy A. Gary Shilling
Ned HillProfessor of Public Affairs and City & Regional PlanningFaculty Member of the Ohio Manufacturing InstituteFaculty of the Discovery Theme in Materials & Manufacturing for Sustainability
Email: [email protected]
26Hill: Urban Regeneration: The U.S. Case