![Page 1: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Disturbance in the ForceEconomic data that keep me up at night
Edward [Ned] HillProfessor of Public Affairs and City & Regional PlanningFaculty Member of the Ohio Manufacturing Institute
![Page 2: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Potential GDP versus Actual GDPThe gap is closing
Hill November 18, 2015 2
![Page 3: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
12-month quarterly change in GDPHovering around 2%--not bad
Hill November 18, 2015 3
![Page 4: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Change in jobs since the start of the Great RecessionUp more than 4 million jobs
Hill November 18, 2015 4
Labor Market
![Page 5: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Ohio: Change in nonfarm employment since the start of the Great Recession: Still down
Hill November 18, 2015 5
Labor Market
![Page 6: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
12-month percent change in employmentGrowth in private sector; Temp employment still strong
Hill November 18, 2015 6
Labor Market
![Page 7: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Unemployment RatesOhio consistently below U.S. & benchmark states
Hill November 18, 2015 7
Labor Market
![Page 8: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
U.S. Annual Labor Force Participation Rates by AgeAdult Men down to 81%; Where are the kids?
Hill November 18, 2015 8
Labor Market
![Page 9: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Annual Labor Force Participation Rates in the United States, Ohio and Ohio’s benchmark states
Hill November 18, 2015 9
Labor Market
![Page 10: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
U.S. Average number of hours workedClimbing but not at 39
Hill November 18, 2015 10
Labor Market
![Page 11: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Two measures of the unemployment rateBoth dropping, Under-employment rate near 10%
Hill November 18, 2015 11
Labor Market
![Page 12: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Owners’ Equity in Real EstateNearly doubled since bottom of recession
Hill November 18, 2015 12
Housing
![Page 13: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Deleveraging of the Housing Market continuesMortgage debt as percent of home equity
Hill November 18, 2015 13
Housing
![Page 14: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Energy prices are the stimulus program
Hill November 18, 2015 14
Energy markets
![Page 15: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Hill November 18, 2015 15
Energy---Natural Gas Prices
![Page 16: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Capacity Utilization Stuck or the Start of the 4th Industrial Revolution—the digital factory?
Hill November 18, 2015 16
Manufacturing
![Page 17: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Industry 4.0The German View
Hill November 18, 2015 17
Manufacturing
![Page 18: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Industry 4.0
Hill November 18, 2015 18
Manufacturing
![Page 19: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Are manufacturers ordering new tools and equipment?Nondefense capital goods—sort of stuck
Hill November 18, 2015 19
Manufacturing
![Page 20: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Monthly Automobile ProductionAround 300,000 units a month
Hill November 18, 2015 20
Manufacturing
![Page 21: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Annualized Automobile & Light Truck Sales
Hill November 18, 2015 21
Manufacturing
![Page 22: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Dollar increases in 12.1% in value over the past year
Hill November 18, 2015 22
Currency
![Page 23: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Euro: Annual increase of Dollar 15.5%
Hill November 18, 2015 23
Currency
![Page 24: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Yen is dropping: Annual Change is 0.5%The days of 108 Yen are long gone
Hill November 18, 2015 24
Currency
![Page 25: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Hill November 18, 2015 25
China “Economic Deceleration”
CHINATruth-Telling on China's Economy16 NOV 18, 2015 5:00 PM ESTBy A. Gary Shilling
![Page 26: Disturbance in the Force: Economic Data that Keeps Me Up at Night](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081604/587a35321a28abdb1c8b57c7/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Ned HillProfessor of Public Affairs and City & Regional PlanningFaculty Member of the Ohio Manufacturing InstituteFaculty of the Discovery Theme in Materials & Manufacturing for Sustainability
Email: [email protected]
26Hill: Urban Regeneration: The U.S. Case