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Morrison, James L., Ed.On the Horizon. The Environmental Scanning Newsletterfor Leaders in Education, 1994-95.North Carolina Univ., Chapel Hill. School ofEducation.ISSN-1074-81219582p.; For the 1993-94 newsletters, see ED 371 699.On the Horizon, CB3500 Peabody Hall, University ofNorth Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 ($24.50individual annual subscription; $49.50 organizationalsubscription; $124.50 site license).Collected Works Serials (022)On the Horizon; v3 n1-5 1994-1995

MF01/PC04 Plus Postage.Economic Factors; Educational Environment;*Educational Trends; *Environmental Scanning;*Futures (of Society); Higher Education; Politics ofEducation; Social Change; *Strategic Planning;Technological Advancement; *Trend Analysis

IDENTIFIERS Internet

ABSTRACTThese five newsletter issues focus on potential

developments and critical trends in higher education. Featurearticles include: (1) "A Reinvented Model for Higher Education"(Richard B. Heydinger); (2) "Redesigning American Public Education"(James S. Coleman); (3) "Envisioning (and Inventing) the Future" (IanWilson); (4) "Human Factors: The Problems of Integrating People andTechnology in the Workplace" (Arnold Brown); and (5) "School IsOut--Learning Is In" (Terry O'Banion). Regular columns focus onsocial, technological, economic, environmental, and political issuesaffecting higher education, as well as commentaries on highereducation issues, the Internet, and computer software. (MDM)

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Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be madefrom the original document.

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ON THE HORIZONTHE ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING NEWSLETTER FOR LEADERS IN EDUCATION

1993-1994

BEST COPY AVAILABLE

U.S DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATIONOfice d Educalonat Rematch and Improvement

EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATIONCENTER (ERIC)

o Thts document has been reoroduCed asreceived Iron, the person or orgentiatton

lorionating .1Mtno: changes have bean made to improvereproduchOn suably

Po lois of woe., or °wham Meted in theldocvmast do not necessarily represent officialOERI postl.on or policy

"PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE THISMATERIAL HAS BEEN GRANTED BY

James L. Morrison

University of N.C.

TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCESINFORMATION CENTER (ERIC)

A Reinvented Model for Higher Education71177B. F7717iger

Alliance for HigherEducation

University ofMinnesota

The "tool box" ofhigher educationchange containsmostly tools fromthe nineteenthcenturybureaucraticparadigm.

IN THIS ISSUE:

The angst over higher education's futureseems more pronounced than ever. Manyinstitutions are working to implement

changes. Examples: Syracuse University is placingrenewed emphasis on senior staff teaching;Bennington, downsizing its faculty by 10%, hasreplaced tenure with employment contracts; the62 campus Minnesota State College and Univer-sity system is designing an outcome-based, cus-tomer driven "product" assessment system in-tended ultimately to guide its resource alloca-tions.

Admirable efforts, but not enough. Twenty-first century higher education must become mis-sion-driven, customer-sensitive, enterprise-orga-nized, and results-oriented.

To accomplish this mandate is difficult, for the"tool box" of higher education change containsmostly tools from the nineteenth century bureau-cratic paradigm. Our reward system drives ustoward the criteria of the academic disciplines andoften away from our institutional missions. Weare confident that we know what is best forstudents; hence we do not ask alums or employersfor their needs. We screen for inputs, not assessoutputs. We budget on number of faculty lines,rot allocate resources on accomplishments. It is asif we have an electrical problem, and all we haveis a plumber's tool box.

We need a new organizational paradigm: onethat will focus us on those we serve; allocateresources based on demonstrable success; provideflexibility that will permit timely responses tochanging student and research needs; eliminateunnecessary layers of oversight by placing moreresponsibility with those we serve. This paradigmwill provide today's institutional leaders with thetools necessary to "remodel" higher education sothat it can meet the needs of the twenty-firstcentury.

Ifwe were to remodel today's higher educationsystem using the tools of this paradigm, whatmight it look like? The remainder of this articleanswers this question, in the context of a multi-campus, statewide, public system. However, mostof these ideas are equally applicable to the singlecampus, whether it be public or private.

The Foundation for ThisReinvented Model

This reinvented model "unbundles" the cur-rent, multi-campus systemseparating its func-tions into a collection of public enterprises. Apublic enterprise is a corporation, established bythe state with a public body as its major stock-holder. The enterprises in this model would notreceive legislative appropriations; instead their

A Reinvented Model for Higher Education CommentaryRichard B. Heydinger 1 Quality Assessment In Higher EducationFrom the Editor - James L. Morison 3 Trudy W. Banta 12

Trends and Events The Global College In ProcessSocial - Lois Graff 5 Robert A. Scott 13Technological - Wally Albers 7 In the 'NetEconomic - A. G. Kefalas 8 The Jericho Project:Environmental - Douglas Crawford-Brown 9 Networking a Community Via TV CablePolitical - Graham T.T. Molitor 10 Perry Brown 14

Professional Development ToolsOpportunities Microsoft Office0TH Cosponsored Conferences 11 Bernard Glassman 15

Licensed for internal duplication to:

revenues would be earned through contracts forservices.

The enterprise organization is no stranger COhigher education. Many effective, long estab-lished examples exist within the academy. It is notcoincidental that they are often the most effectiveand cost-ecient operations on campus. For ex-ample, n-Any continuing education centers are

freestanding enter-prises. In some institu-tions the auxiliary en-terprises such as dormi-tories and parking arein actuality enterprise-run units.

Because customersatisfaction will directlyaffect revenues in ourproposed new system,the bottom line will beto provide value to cus-tomers. This clear, un-complicated fundingstructure guarantees

THE HIGHER EDUCATION POLICY BOARD

THE LEARNINCONNECTIONEnt° .nse

°..THE LEARNINGBANK Enterpnse

EDUCATIONALENTERVISES

HI.EDUCFACILITY

Enterprises

TEACHINGEnterprises

LEARNINGRESOURCEEnterprises

LEARNINGTECHNOLOGEnterprises

With a reliance onjudgments bycustomers, whichin turn wouldinfluence funding,publicaccountabilitywould at last befully obtained.

transparent, immediate consequences for successor failure. At last the Gordian knot of competingdemands that constrain higher education's con-tinued development can be untied.

Essential to this proposal is a much higher levelof systematic accountability. Public scrutiny inthis proposal would not be obstructed; it would beenhanced. With a reliance on judgments by cus-tomers, which in turn would influence funding,public accountability would at last be fully ob-tained.

A Family of Public EnterprisesOur reinvented model vests in a Higher Edu-

cation Policy Board the final responsibility forensuring that high quality, value-rich higher edu-cation is being delivered to the public. Organiza-tionally this Board would be similar to the state-wide coordinating boards of today. However itsresponsibilities would be much different.

The Policy Board would focus clearly andexclusively on the outcomes of service and theneeds of the customers of higher education. TheBoard would be responsible for reviewing perfor-mance across the entire system, setting broadpolicy, ensuring that values such as equity andaccess were being fulfilled, and developing incen-tives consistent with the overall objectives of thesystem.

The Policy Board, however, would not de-velop detailed policies or a long list of operatingguidelines for the other enterprises, leaving thoseto the talent, ingenuity, and professional expertiseof those operating each enterprise. Each of these

enterprises would be chartered by the HigherEducation Policy Board with a specific missionand focus.

Operating under the Policy Board umbrella,each enterprise would be a public corporation,separate from the others, mission-focused, anddirectly accountable to those they immediatelyserve. Nearly all of these enterprises have a coun-terpart within today's higher education system.Some of the enterprises are new; all reflect a newfocus, with new emphasis on accountable deliveryto students. Below are examples.

A Learning Connection would assist studentsin making choices about their educational optionsand would evaluate the performance of each edu-cational program in the system. The LearningConnection would act in an advocacy role to ass: ;tstudents sort options available by providing themwith comprehensive, user-friendly evaluative in-formation on educational programs.

A Learning Bank would maintain an indi-vidual postsecondary education account for eachcitizen in the state. All financial aid, individualsavings in anticipation of higher education bills,and state appropriations supporting student at-tendance would be held here. Under state devel-oped guidelines, citizens could use these funds topay for their postsecondary education.

Together the Learning Connection and Learn-ing Bank would combine to give students twoenterprises focused exclusively on their best inter-ests, not the institution's, and to advise students inmaking both enrollment and payment-for-educa-tion decisions.

Educational Enterprises are the centerpiece ofthis proposal, for they would be the most visibleand most recognizable part of the system to thestudent. Students would enroll here. Rather thanemploying faculty and staff or owning facilities,Educational Enterprises would purchase instruc-tional services, would contract for academic sup-port, and would rent facilities from other enter-prises.

Teaching Enterprises, collections of facultymembers to provide instructional services to oneor more educational enterprises, might focus on adiscipline, problem, field of interest, type of stu-dent served or pedagogical style. These organiza-tions might be public corporations, private enti-ties or even single individuals.

Each teaching enterprise would set its ownguidelines with regard to teaching loads, researchand other policies. Faculty could be tenured orcontracted in these organizations, depending onthe decision of the particular Teaching Enter-prise.

continued on page 4

On the Horizon 2 October/November 1994

FROM THE Responses to "A Reinvented ModelEDITOR for Higher Education" from the ' List

James L. MorrisonOn the HorizonThe University of

North Carolina atChapel Hill

W e now have over 700 participants onHorizon List accessible through

Internet. One use of the List is tostimulate conversations on emerging trends andpotential developments that may affect educationby posting draft On the Horizon articles for discus-sion, critique, and comment. Below are briefexcerpts (somewhat paraphrased) from severalList participants who commented in response toour lead article. The thoughtful and thought-provoking responses are available in their entiretyin Horizon List archives.

From Merrill Pritchett, University of Balti-more: Heydinger replaces the heavy hand of anunresponsive bureaucracy by unbundling estab-lished higher education organizations to create"enterprise organizations." I ain struck by howserious writers rely on the functioning of themarketplace to reform higher education. Couldnot models for reinvented higher education bedrawn from environmental studies or develop-mental psychology? Would not a student -cen-tered model of higher education be even morerevolutionary?

EDITORIAL

BOARD

11111111111111111

James L. Morrison, EditorThe University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Bernard Glassman, Associate EditorPragmatix:Information Design

Blanche Fried Arons, Associate EditorLanguage Associates

Walter A. Albers, Jr.Albers Systems Inc.

Don BarkerGonzaga University

Peter BishopUniversity of Houston at Clear Lake

David BrockUniversity of Auckland

Arnold BrownWeiner, Edrich & Brown, Inc.

Dale F. CampbellUniversity of Florida

Gordon CaweltiAllience for Curricular Reform

Chris and Doreen deWinter HebronH+E Associates, England

Gregg EdwardsAcademy for Advanced and Strategic Studies

Jonathan FifeERIC Clearinghouse on Higher Education

Lois GraffThe George Washington University

Warren GroffNova University

E. Raymond HackettAuburn University

Richard B. HeydingerAlliance for Higher Education Strategies

Jeffery Holmes Ian H. WilsonCanadian Bureau for Intl Education Wolf Enterprises

Bruce Anthony JonesUniversity of Pittsburg

Asterios G. KefalasUniversity of Georgia

Larry MarcusRowan College

Michael MaslenFuture Survey

Graham T.T. MolitorPublic Policy Forecasting, Inc.

James OgilvyGlobal Business Network

Susan OtterbourgDelman Educational Communications

Tracy LaQuey ParkerCisco Systems, Inc.

Marvin W. PetersonUniversity of Michigan

James G. PtaszyskiWake Forest University

Lewis A. RhodesAmerican Association of School Administrators

Arthur B. ShostakDrexel University

David Pearce SnyderSnyder Family Enterprises

Gerald UnitsHigh School Journal

Frans A. Van VughtUniversity of Twente, the Netherlands

George WilkinsonThe Wilkinson Group

On the Horizon focuses on potential developments and critical trends affecting education. It is published in October/November, December!

January, February/March, April/May, and June /July by the Institute for Academic and Professional Leadership, School of Education, The

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, ISSN 1f74-8121. Annual cost: individual, $24.50-, organizational, $49.50; site license, $124.50.

For more information, contact Professor James L Morrison, Editor, On the Horizon, or Assistants to the Editor, K.C. Brown, Rabbi Pickerat orClad Terrill, CBS 3500 Peabody Hall, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599. (919) 962-2517. Internet Morrison@unc.edu.

The Institute for Academic and Professional Leadership serves educational leaders by providing professional development workshops and

seminars. For more information about the Institute, its facilities, and its services, contact William S. Pate, Program Director, The Friday Center, CB

#1020, UNC-Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599. (919) 962-3276. Internet iapl@unc.edu.

October/November 1994 3 On the Horizon

The List offers anopportunity to joinin a worldwidediscussion/critique ofemerging trendsand issuespublished in Onthe Horizon.

We hope to geteven moreinformation fromthe List in thefuture via ourventure inestablishing aglobal e!octronicenvironmentalscanning databaseon the Internet.

...A successful business is one that meets presentcustomer needs while at the same time planning tomeet needs that the customer does not yet evendream of. The classic example is the VCR. Devel-oped by an American company, it was dropped forlack of immediate markets, only to be picked upby a Japanese company that spent 20 years devel-oping the market (i.e., getting consumers to seethe need for it), and then made millions. Highereducation should try to meet the present needs ofstudents, as narrowly they are now defined, whilenor giving up the broader aims of education. If weregard education as a life long process, persuadeour students of the truth of the idea, and practiceit ourselves, we might be able educate studentswho can cope and be successful for the long haulas well as the first job.

...Maybe the most important core competencyof higher education is encouraging our people tothink creatively, to experiment, and to try to shapethe future. We most keep in mind that writers oncore competencies stress that what is an assettoday must be reexamined constantly, taking intoaccount the possible future impact of technologi-cal, demographic, and economic trends.

From David Ross, Houston Community Col-lege: I wish we could read an article on educationwithout words like reinvent, paradigm, outcome,customer needs.

Outcome in its most common collocation as inmeasurable outcome thrills legislators and chillseducators. Here in the trenches comes anothertaxpayer subsidy of the educational testing, data-base management industries.

From Don Mencer ,a University:Train-ing for specific jobs . leave our students lessprepared for the future, not more prepared. Per-

haps if we dcl a better job of explaining why theliberal arts curriculum is valuable, the customerwould be happy to pay to acquire it.

From Dean Pielstick, Chemeketa CommunityCollege: The SCANS reports call for exactly thekinds of competencies that one develops througha liberal education. During customer conferences,local business leaders say that they have to providespecific technical training; they expect our gradu-ates to be able to solve problems and think criti-cally.

If you have not yet subscribed to Horizon List,please consider doing so (instructions are in theJune/July 1994 issue). TheListoffers an opportu-nity to join in a worldwide discussion/critique ofemerging trends and issues published in On theHorizon. Moreover, we use these discussions as away of identifying potential articles. Indeed, someof the articles we have published stemmed initiallyfrom the discussion on Horizon Listas well as fromother lists we systematically scan.

We hope to get even more information fromthe List in the future via our venture in establish-ing a global electronic environmental scanningdatabase on the Internet. Now when you sub-scribe to Horizon List, part of the welcome an-nouncement tells you the format for your postingand how to retrieve information from the data-base.

The usefulness of this database is dependentupon List participantsthe more who contrib-ute, the richer and, therefore, the more useful thedatabase. We intend to mine this database forpotential items for publication in On the Horizon;if we select your contribution, we will request yourpermission to publish it, giving, of course, duecredit to you for your contribution.

A Reinvented Model for Higher Educationcontinued from page 2

The Teaching Enterprise is often viewed as themost radical part of this proposal, for instruc-tional resources would now be "outsourced."However, this change could yield some importantbenefits. It would disentangle competing objec-tives inherent in today's multifaceted, "fuzzy"mission system.

The change would give each educational en-terprise greater freedom to set incentives tailoredto its particular customers. For example, an Edu-cational Enterprise might demand in its contractwith a Teaching Enterprise that senior facultyteach more introductory courses.

Similarly, a Teaching Enterprise would be freeto take on as many research contracts as it wishedor to reach out in s ecial areas, far be and

today's implicit mission boundaries. If a TeachingEnterprise judged that it needed better librarysupport to meet the needs ofits customers, it couldwrite this into its contract with the LearningResources Enterprise.

The Learning Resources Enterprise would ownand operate library resources including the fullpanoply of services and resources characterizingtoday's library. Both Educational Enterprises, onbehalf of their students, and Teaching Enter-prises, on behalf of their faculty, could contractwith the Learning Resources Enterprise for ser-vices. However, a Learning Resources Enterprisewould also have an incentive to contract withother groups in the community, thereby generat-ing additional revenue and extending accessibilityof these valuable resources.

October/November 1994On the Horizon 4

This reinventedmodel should notbe seen as aprivatizationmodel.

In the next issue,James Coleman,University ofChicago, will focuson a model forreinventing publiceducation.

The Learning Technologies Enterprise wouldprovide computing, telecommunications, andmultimedia services. The primary customers ofthis entity would be students and faculty; it wouldhave performance contracts with Educational En-terprises and Teaching Enterprises respectively.

The Facility Enterprise would operate andmaintain all buildings system wide, with the goalof producing the best possible return on thesevaluable public assets. Although Educational En-terprises would be their primary customers, therewould be strong incentive to use these buildingsand grounds more creatively so that citizens wouldget a larger return on their investment in theseassets.

A Few Cautions in InterpretingThis Proposal

This reinvented model should not be seen as aprivatization model. Replacing a non-customeroriented public bureaucracy with a private onethat simply reports to a public board does notnecessarily improve service. In fact experienceshows that such changes can easily decrease thelevel of service. Essential to the success of thismodel is the freedom for each Educational Enter-prise to choose amongst both public and private

providers in developing the range of programs andservices it will offer students.

Second, the performance of these enterprisesmust be completely open to public review andcomment. The effectiveness of an enterprise willbe apparent from the size and diversity of itsrevenue streams. Budget size can be determined byeach enterprise's ability to provide high qualityservice at a good value in the eyes of its customers,not by its political might to plead a convincingcase before the legislature.

This reinvented model is certainly not the onlyapproach to responding to the challenges facinghigher education, nor does space permit a fullerdiscussion here of this model. Those wishing moreinformation about this proposal, including a fullerdescription of each enterprise, a discussion of howthis model would operate on a day-to-day basis, orsome suggestions of how to implement theseenterprises should consult the complete proposal.

[Editor's note: Copies of the proposal fromwhich Professor Heydinger drew this article, en-titled "A Model for the Reinvented Higher Edu-cation System" (publication PS-94-1), are avail-able from SHEEO for $10 each by calling (303)299-3686. In the December/January issue, JamesColeman, University of Chicago, will focus on amodel for reinventing public education.]

SOCIAL The Monster Under the Bed

17017717Associate Dean for

UndergraduatePrograms, School ofBusiness and Public

ManagementThe George

Washington University

The central propositions of Stan Davis andJim Botkin's new book, The Monster Un-der the Bed are that (a) the marketplace for

learning is expanding from the traditional K-12plus college to a demand for lifelong learning, and(b) the ;ncremental demands created by this ex-pansion are being better met by businesses thanby schools.

According to Davis and Botkin, "In the infor-mation economy, the rapid pace of technologicalchange means that education must be updatedthroughout our working lives.... Lifelong learn-ing is the norm that is augmenting and in somecases displacing school-education" (p. 16).

If these propositions are true, they imply anunprecedented competitive challenge for Ameri-can institutions of higher learning. The challengeis to adapt, to "shift" some fundamental para-digms.

Many factors contribute to the growing needfor lifelong learning in a continuous learningenvironment. The rapid growth of informationand communications technology has led to theunderstanding of knowledge as a product itself.We can create an iron, for example, that can turnitself off when it is placed in the "wrong" positionor copy machines that can indicate where the

problem is or automobiles that can signal whenservice is due. The data generated by the productsbecome an added value which generates a com-petitive advantage. Smart businesses hire employ-ees and seek customers who recognize and imple-ment these knowledge-based ideas. Increased com-petition both globally and domestically is chal-lenging firms to function more productively andmore effectively, to learn how to "leverage theeconomic value of knowledge."

A basic tenet of lifelong learning is collabora-tion. This requires a more educated workforcethat sees itself in a decision making role andunderstands a larger part of the operation.

The authors point to the confluence of thegrowth in technology, awareness of quality prin-ciples, and increased global competition as causesfor shorter product cycles in all fields. It is becotn-ing necessary to bring new products to marketmore quickly at the same time that the life cyclesof existing products grow shorter.

Davis and Botkin cite numerous businessesthat have invested large amounts of capital indeveloping successful educational systems, some-times even calling them universities. The authorscite statistics indicating that the number of corpo-rate employees receiving formal training in 1992grew by nearly four million people or about 126million additional hours of employee learning in

October /November 1994 5 On the Horizon

Corporate-basedlearning is oftenaided by a hugeinvestment intechnology todeliver contentexpertise.

Switching thefocus fromteaching tolearning alsoimplies that we aseducators mustbetter definedesired learningoutcomes anddevelop moreinnovative ways toassess whether ornot learning hasoccurred.

one year, the equivalent of almost a quarter of amillion additional full-time college students: thisis a growth that the educational sector is hardpressed to meet.

Further, corporate-based learning is often aidedby a huge investment in technology to delivercontent expertise. Networks and multimedia sys-tems with self-paced and just-in-time trainingreadily available are able to move the educationalfocus from teaching to learning; educators are justbeginning to recognize this as critical to preparingsomeone for lifelong learning.

Davis and Botkin place the major responsibil-ity for the kind of education that is necessary forany country to remain competitive in the neweconomy squarely on the shoulders of business,not academe. Corporations face a growing needfor educated employees, and there is already someresistance to paying a premium for MBAs. Ascompanies bring learning in-house, the value ofgraduate degrees continues to decline. Compa-nies may even choose to recruit directly from highschool into their ranks.

Traditionally, companies have been paying agreat deal of attention to cultural diversity be-cause, according to Davis and Botkin, of "theneed to integrate a workforce diversified by race,gender, and national origin." Attention is given toimproving communication and interpersonal skillsbecause this is of value to the company. Evenissues of social and moral responsibility becomefair game for the corporate educator.

[Davis, Stan & Botkin, Jim. (1994). Themonster under the bed New York: Simon &Schuster.]

ImplicationsDavis and Botkin agree that corporations are

not going to displace schools and colleges for basiclearning. However, corporations are likely to havesome profound effects on what education weprovide and how we provide it.

How should educators respond? It is no longerpossible to dismiss corporate education as merely"training" in the most narrow sense of that worddelivery of highly specialized facts or skills.

Collectively, colleges and universities alongwith business must identify what it is that each canoffer efficiently to achieve a higher quality educa-tion. This is not merely a matter of collegesoffering courses subsidized by corporations. Norshould educators tailor courses designed to helptheir graduates land jobs. Rather educators mustaccept the fact that learning is a lifelong process;educators must help students see the connectionsbetween what is happening in "school" and whatis happening in life, and must broaden the stu-dents' appi eciation for why and how a course in

hiloso h )r art or anthro do!, is "useful."

In this process, each institution of learningmust delineate what it can do better than otherinstitutions. In the jargon of business, what iseach institution's comparative advantage? In-creased partnering both among academic institu-tions and between universities and corporations isnecessary. Integration of providers is the key topreparing and presenting a complete package tothe student.

Switching the focus in schools and collegesfrom "teaching" to "learning" requires placingmore responsibility on students for learning con-tent-based material outside of the standard lec-ture. Merely assigning chapters in a textbook is nolonger acceptable. Students should also be pro-vided with information on how they learn bestand most easily in a way compatible with theirindividual learning style.

Students should have access to tools that willhelp them learn, the same kind of technology thatis available in corporations today (here's one placewhere a respectful partnering might really benefita university). They should be allowed and encour-aged to use all possible sources of information.Davis and Botkin cite the example of the use ofcalculators being discouraged in classrooms for along time even though everyone agreed they weremore efficient and more accurate. Another ex-ample is the restriction on using a fellow classmate'sresearch paper; such papers should be stored in anelectronic library and failure to access and prop-erly attribute such information should be down-graded. Students should be taught how to workcollaboratively and to exchange ideas and knowl-edge with their fellow classmates.

Switching the focus from teaching to learningalso implies that we as educators must betterdefine desired learning outcomes and developmore innovative ways to assess whether or notlearning has occurred. This will probably leadaway from our artificial adherence on regular classmeetings, with a fixed number of contact hours asthe definition of a course. The traditional modelis not functional in a world of technology withadult learners.

Reassessing the teacher-student relationshipleads to reassessing the schools themselves. Dotraditional schools and colleges fit the new learn-ing needs? Are there new issues in serving the new"market "? Must some new academic/corporateentity be created?

Davis and Botkin raise many provocative ques-tions. In general, business schools are furtherahead than other academic institutions in exam-ining how corporations and higher education canwork together, but even they have not seen corpo-rations as competitors in education. Perhaps it istime to turn on the lights and examine this "mon-ster under the bed."

On the Horizon 68

October/November 1994

TECHNOLOGICAL New Addition to theEndangered Species List:"On the Job"Wally Albers

Albers Systems, Inc.

Manyorganizations arealready well on thepath toward being"dejobbed."

The virtuallaboratory willbecome asimportant a part ofthe sciencestudent's coursework as thetraditionallaboratoryexperience.

ECONOMICA.76==

Department ofManagement

University of Georgia

The social entity known as a job is "vanish-ing like a species that has outlived itsevolutionary time," says William Bridges

in a recent Fortune article. Advances in technol-ogy have automated the production line and allbut eliminated traditional repetitive tasks. Jobshave become rigid solutions to a dynamic prob-lem. "We can rewrite a person's job descriptionoccasionally, but not every week," says Bridges.Jobs are no longer socially adaptive. Regularhours, strictly prescribed duties, unvarying paycharacteristics of the traditional jobno longerfit the work needs of contemporary economies.According to Bridges, many organizations arealreadywell on the path toward being "dejobbed."Workers are most likely to be assigned to a projectwhere their responsits:lities and tasks evolve andkeep changing as the project evolves and changes.Even before finishing the first task, workers arereassignedunder several different team leaders,keeping different schedules, changing locationsand performing a wide variety of tasks. Skillrequirements of the emerging workplace are moregeneral than specific, crossing traditional disci-plinary lines and leaning much more towardsflexibility and resiliency than to the rigid norms ofthe traditional "job." [Bridges, W. (1994, Sep-tember 19). The end of the job. Fortune, 62-74].

ImplicationsIn the changing world of the vanishing-job

concept, the packaging of education could beadjusted to better meet contemporary work needs.Just as work requirements packages are no longerfocused on regular hours, strictly prescribed du-ties and inverting pay, educational packages

should be designed to prepare students for lessstrictly prescribed duties and greater flexibilityand resiliency in their pursuit of knowledge andtechnical training.

The Phenomenal Growth ofDigital Science

Digital science, science on a computer, hasexperienced remarkable growth over the last tenyears, in both capacity and speed, providing greatercapability for the solution to increasingly complexproblems. Now computers can "reengineeralmost anything in Mother Nature's pantry," saysRussell Mitchell in a Business Week article onscience and technology. This puts computers at"the cusp of all scientific endeavors." Mitchellclaims that "digital science marks the most funda-mental change in scientific methodology sinceNewton." Quoting a California physicist: "It's thetranscendent technology of our time." Althoughsuch grandiose statements are debatable, there is agerm of truth in all of this. Experimental digitalscience, carried out in virtual laboratories, is en-joying success after success in such diverse scien-tific arenas as computational biology, modeling ofthe combustion process, simulation of materials,global climate modeling, and fusion-energy reac-tors, to mention a few. One truism emerges:Digital science is able to pick up where the imagi-nation leaves off, vastly extending scientific vision.[Mitchell, R. (1994, September 19). Fantasticjourneys in virtual labs. Business Week, 76-88.]

ImplicationsScience delivery is becoming more and more

computer-intensive. Educators must rethink howto teach science. The virtual laboratory will be-come as important a part of the science student'scourse work as the traditional laboratory experi-ence. Prepare to budget accordingly.

Global CompetitivenessSince 1985 the United States of Americahas been down in the dumps about itseconomic performance, at home and in

the global marketplace. At home the countryexperienced a huge loss in competitiveness (i.e.,the ability of national business to ward off foreigncompetition). Foreign manufacturers had cap-tured a substrntial portion of the U.S. market,causing turbulence in corporate board meetings,and stimulating a frenzy of reorganizing, restruc-turing, downsizing, rightsizing and reengi neeri ng.

Abroad, low quality and high prices were the

usual reasons given for the inability of Americanbosinesses to maintain existing markets and togain new ones. American business attributed thisloss of global competitiveness to a "wimpy" U.S.industrial and foreign trade policy and to the highvalue of the dollar. Economists reminded businessand government leaders of the J-curve effect.Changes in government policies and business struc-tures tend to follow a lagged path similar to the tailof the letter J. At the beginning of the change itappears that there is no real effect on the businessactivity both in terms of output and trade. Con-tractual arrangements prevent any immediate ef-fect on production and demand. After a reason-

October/November 1994 7 On the Horizon

9

Economic recoveryis becomingapparent in agreat number ofthe OECDcountries.

Despite thiseconomic growth,unemploymentwill continue tobe a problem.

During the leanlast ten years,educationalinstitutions had tobite the bullet asmuch as, if notmore than, bothgovernments andprivate businessesdid.

able time eventually the change does kick off aprocess of output and trade creation.

Recent events appear to have again proven theeconomists correct. Two related reports have el-evated the U.S. to the top of the world again forthe first time since 1985. The first report placesthe U.S. at the number one position in globalcompetitiveness. The second one reports a bril-liant economic performance for 1994 and fore-casts an equally optimistic outlook for the comingyear.

Last month the Swiss-based Institute for Man-agement Development and the World EconomicForum issued their World Competitiveness Re-port, which placed the U.S. at the top of the globalcompetitiveness list. Although the U.S. has beenthe laughing stock for years, the global commu-nity admitted that the U.S. is now successfullycompeting with its traditional rivals Japan andGermany who are placed third and fifth respec-tively. Within Europe, Germany, Switzerland andDenmark top the list (Francis, 1994).

The report defines competitiveness as the abil-ity of a country or a company to generate propor-tionally more wealth than competitors do in worldmarkets. Countries are ranked in such areas asdomestic economic strength, infrastructure andmanagement, on the basis of 381 criteria thatrange from computers per capita to alcohol anddrug abuse. The U.S. excelled in a strong and earlyeconomic recovery, coupled with high scores onentrepreneurship, internationalization and finan-cial vitality. Japan, which systematically led theworld competitiveness scoreboard for the pasteight years, has slipped to the third place, behindSingapore, due to its "worst economic recession,as well as a growing mistrust of the politicalsystem" (Butler, 1994).

The OECD Economic Outlook

The Council of the Organization for Eco-nomic Cooperation and Development (OECD)met on June 7-8 at the ministerial level. OECD,aka the Rich Countries Club, includes the world'stop 24 countries plus the newest member, Mexico.The consensus of the meeting was that economicrecovery is occurring in a number of OECDcountries. The annual OECD Economic Outlookbegins its current report with the statement, "Eco-nomic growth in the OECD area as a whole issteadily gathering strength. OECD activity willexpand by over 2.6% in 1994 and close to 3% in1995" (OECD, 1994). As is customary, eco-nomic activity is measured by a country's perfor-mance in the following four areas: (a) growth ofreal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (b) unem-ployment (.c) private consumption deflator or

inflation and (d) current balance. In the first threemeasures the U.S. receives straight As. In the lastarea, the measure of a country's net result of itsinternational transactions, the U.S. receives theusual C-minus.

Growth of real GDP will average 2.6% in 1994for all OECD countries. For the so-called G7 thatcounts for 84.6% of the OECD total output, thegrowth rate will be 2.7%. The U.S. tops the list ofG7 countries and shares this position with Den-mark and Australia. Only Ireland and Norway areexpected to grow faster with 4.1 and 4.3 %respectively. For 1995 the G7 will grow at 2.9%while the U.S. will average 3.0% The engines ofdevelopment for 1995 will place Canada with4.3%, the United Kingdom 3.2% and the U.S.with 3.0%.

Despite this economic growth, unemploymentwill continue to be a problem. In 1994 unemploy-ment will average 7.4 % for the G7 countries and8.5 % for all OECD countries. (Luxembourg,Japan and the U.S. have the lowest unemploy-ment rates for these countries with 2.7%, 2.9%and 6.3% respectively.) The European Union(EU) countries top the list having the most unem-ployed people-12% of the labor force. For 1995a slight improvement is forecast to the tune of .39/ofor all OECD countries.

Price changes (i.e., inflation) will remain at avery low level for 1995 for the G7 countries-2.0% and 3.5% for the OECD as a whole, minusTurkey, which may experience 106% inflation.The U.S. will be around 2.1% while the EUcountries will average 3.1%. For 1995 the U.S.will have the largest increase in inflation (1%above the 1994 level), while the G7 countries willremain close to the 1994 level with an increase of2.3%. The EU will improve its position by expe-riencing a decline in inflation from 3.1% to 2.5%.

Australia, the U.K, Canada and the U.S. leadthe OECD in the current accounts deficits for1994 and will continue to do so for 1995. Austra-lia is the leader in this area with a deficit of 3.9%of its GDP for 1994 and 4.3% for 1995. The G7countries have a deficit of .1% for 1994 and willexperience a slight deterioration for 1995 to .2%.Switzerland tops the list of winners in the interna-tional transactions game with a surplus of some7.3% for 1994 and 6.8% for 1995. The Beneluxcountries are other winners with fairly large sur-pluses for both the current year and 1995.

[Butler, Chris. (1994, Sept, mber 1-15). Thefrontrunners in a race for world trade. The Euro-pean, 27; OECD. (1994, August/September).OECD economic outlook, The OECD Observer,No. 189; Williams, Francis (1994, September 7).U.S. displaces Japan as most competitive nation.Financial Times, 1, 4.]

On the Horizon 8 10 October /November 1994

Now is the time forthe administrators,their staff and thefaculty to pull uptheir sleeves andstart working.

ENVIRONMENT

Douglas J. Crawford-Brown

Department ofEnvironmental

Sciences andEngineering

University of NorthCarolina at Chapel

Hill

By linking thegeosciences tohuman ecology,educators canprepare studentsfor a meaningfulrole in solvingenvironmentalproblems.

ImplicationsThe Council of OECD Ministers issued a

policy report that covers a wide range of recom-mendations aimed at facilitating the sustainabilityof the improved growth rates. To reduce chronicunemployment they suggest that "the aim shouldbe to establish the conditions most conducive toinnovation, private initiative and creation oflargenumbers of jobs at all skill levels and to ensure thatpeople are equipped to take these jobs." Recog-nizing that education is the most obvious vehicleto provide the skills needed, the Council advisedgovernments to seek "further to improve educa-tion and training systems, in each national insti-tutional context, and where appropriate, in closecooperation with social partners, local authoritiesand private initiatives, so as to ensure that peoplecan, and throughout their lifetime, will developtheir knowledge and skills, thereby contributingto improved productivity and sustained high levelof growth."

During the lean last ten years, educationalinstitutions had to bite the bullet as much as, if

not more than, both governments and privatebusiness did. School administrators were told thatplans for construction of new schools and labfacilities, for hiring new faculty, for acquiring newtechnology, for starting new curricula, all had tobe put on a freeze "till the economy picks up." Lowgrowth rates or no growth at all create problemsfor state budgets. Revenue fell while appropria-tions remained the same and even grew to accom-modate people who lost their jobs.

Now that this country is back at the top of theeconomic growth curve and seems to have gottenits act together both locally and globally, it shouldbe reminded that it got there because of thesuperior knowledge and skills of its people. Aca-demic institutions are the knowledge and skills-creating machinery of this country. Like all othersystems, the educational system needs a substan-tial overhaul. Now is the time for the administra-tors, their staff and the faculty to pull up theirsleeves and start working toward sharing thiseconomic bonanza that the great growth machineis creating.

Geo Science, EnvironmentalStudies & Social Organization

Social organization is essential to the sur-vival of the geosciences and environmen-tal studies. Educators must apply social

organization to address these related fields onthree levels: between departments at universitiesand colleges, between separate groups of educa-tional organizations, and between academia, in-dustry :!ncl national scientific organizations.

All education in environmental studies mustbegin with a firm grounding in the various geo-sciences. The laws governing physical, chemicaland biological processes moving matter and en-ergy through environmental systems must bestudied with rigor. But a rigorous education ineach of these processes is beyond the scope ofindividual departments as they now exist. Bothrigor and "completeness ofconception" are neededif students are to grasp environmental phenom-ena intellectually rather than merely mechani-cally and piecemeal. Departments must be orga-nized into a collaborative group, each bringingthe tools of analysis from its particular disciplin-ary perspective while collectively providing a sensefor the overall cosmology of an environmentalphenomenon. The challenge is to balance theneed for thorough preparation in a specializedarea of geoscience equally with the need for a

thorough understanding of the evolving issuestowards which specialized understanding must bedirected.

The hope fc r the future lies in the exchange ofmaterials through interinstitutional collaborationand electronic media. Individuals must make theirteaching aids and expertise available at other insti-tutions. The World Wide Web (WWW) canprovide support in organizing teachers and non-academic groups separated widely by space, disci-pline and resources.

At a recent American Geophysical Union con-ference on "Scrutiny ofUndergraduate GeoscienceEducation: Is the Viability of the Geosciences inJeopardy?" participating organizations welcomedinteractions with others interested in joining orsimply making use of the available materials. (Con-tact the AGU offices at 2000 Florida Avenue,N.W., Washington, DC 20009 (202-939-3203)for a copy of the proceedings.) The availability ofinterdisciplinary environmental materials is stun-ning in scope, in the quality of graphical displays,and in their potential to bring greater intellectualrigor to environmental analysis.

Most of the collaborative programs were de-signed to draw on disciplinary strengths whileproviding a broader perspective oil environmentalphenomena and issues. This broader perspectiveincludes the role of social organization in under-standing the contribution of humans to environ-

October/November 1994 9

11On the Horizon

Socialorganizationalcollaborations arethe hope of thefuture ifgeoscienceeducation is tosurvive and ifenvironmentaleducation is toprofit from thatsurvival.

POLITICALGraham T.T. Molitor

President of PublicPolicy Forecasting

Inc.

Holding degree-granting agenciesresponsible for thecompetency oftheir graduates isa logical, if mind-boggling,extension of theaccountabilitymovement.

mental phenomena. By linking the geosciences tohuman ecology, educators can prepare studentsfor a meaningful role in solving environmentalproblems (McDonnell & Pickett, 1993; NAE,1994; Smil, 1993). The intent isn't to supplanttraditional disciplines (although some reorganiza-tion clearly is needed), but rather to teach studentswhat the role of their discipline is in analyzingcomplex problems requiring interdisciplinaryteams.

Examples of collaboration were reported onthree different levels: The first is between geo-science departments at asingle university, exernpli-fied by the approach to Earth System Science atthe University of Oklahoma (contact J.T. Snow,College of Geosciences, Norman, Oklahoma).Collaborations between researchers in differentdisciplines have also been stimulated by computermodeling laboratories at the Colorado School ofMines (contact D.J. Wilson, Computing Center,Golden, Colorado). On a second level, arrange-ments now exist between universities and collegesin North Carolina, leading to development ofcourse materials capable of being introduced intodiverse institutional structures (contact D.J.Crawford-Brown, University of North Carolinaat Chapel Hill). Finally, a particularly excitingventure is the Jet Propulsion Laboratory that Lasentered into a group project(project ALERT) withuniversities and colleges in the California system,

making the immense geoscience resources of thisscientific organization available in computer formto each of the schools (contact E. Frost, Depart-ment of Geosciences, San Diego State Univer-sity).

[Smil, Vaclay. (1993). Global ecology: Environ-mental change and social flexibility. London:Routledge; McDonnell, Mark and Pickett, Stewart(Eds.) (1993). Humans as components ofecosyst-ms.New York: Springer-Verlag; National Academyof Engineering. (1994). The greening of industrialecosystems. Washington, DC: National AcademyPress.]

ImplicationsSocial organizational collaborations are the

hope of the future if geoscience education is tosurvive and ifenvironmental education is to profitfrom that survival. These programs must ensureall students receive a shared base of expertisedirected towards the solution of environmentalproblems and rooted in an understanding of envi-ronmental processes and human ecology. Thepresentations at the AGU conference provide ahint as to how the analytic rigor offered by tradi-tional disciplines may strengthen programs inenvironmental studies, with necessary concernsfor social organization and for interdisciplinaryexploration of complex phenomena within com-puter visualizations.

Liability of Degree-GrantingInstitutions for SubstandardPerformance of Graduates

After receiving a $1.7 million malpracticesettlement against a psychotherapist andthe clinic where the therapist worked,

the patient-litigant filed suit against the LouisianaTech University's College of Education, whichconferred the therapist's master's degree.

[Editors. (1994, September 14). Woman suesuniversity in malpractice case. Chronicle of HigherEducation, p. A7.1]

ImplicationsThis is a wake-up call for educators. Holding

degree-granting agencies responsible for the com-petency of their graduates is a logical, if mind-boggling, extension of the accountability move-ment. Fortunately, tort reform looms high on thepublic agenda as lawsuits increasingly take on anAlice-In-Wonderland quality. We will keep youinformed on the outcome of the suit against LTU.

Reemphasis on CoreCurriculum

Students in other advanced post-industrialnations spend as much as twice the number ofhours on basic core subjects as do U.S. students.An estimated 40% of classroom instruction in theU.S. is devoted to core subjects such as English,math and science. Critics insist that the U.S.curriculum has been "dumbed down." Heftingthe commitment to the core curriculum-4 yearsof English; 3 years each of social studies, scienceand math; 2 years of a foreign language; 1/2 yearof computer sciencewas recommended by thehighly regarded 1983 report entitledA Nation atRisk. In 1982 only 2% of students satisfied thiscurriculum, and only 17% in 1990.

[Forbes, Malcolm S. Jr. (1994, September 12).Quality time. Forbes, 25-26; Kelly, Dennis (1994,June 21). Core curriculum: Toughening up U.S.students. USA Today, IA; Editors (1994, May16). Education: No time for learning. Newsweek,58.]

On the Horizon 10

1October/November 1994

A trend likely tocontinue and befoqowed by anincreasing numberof state and localjurisdictionsinvolves linkingteacher licensingto satisfactoryperformanceevaluation.

ImplicationsEducation excellence is imperative in this In-

formation Era G rass root Americans are demand-ing greater student achievement from their costlyeducational institutions. Standards will be estab-lished to correctly measure student achievement;educators increasingly will be held responsible forthose results.

Teacher CompetencyRequirements Escalating

A trend likely to continue and be followed byan increasing number of state and local jurisdic-tions involves linking teacher licensing to sad:fac-tory performance evaluation. Maryland recentlyenacted such a measure, following the lead of sixother statesAlabama, Colorado, Minnesota,Missouri, New Mexico and North Dakota.Maryland's previous licensing merely requiredpayment of a $10 licensing fee every 10 years.Under the new law, teachers will have to recertifyevery 5 years. Relicensing also will require: satis-factory evaluations for 3 out of each 5 years, inaddition to a more widely practiced requirementof extra course work to maintain/upgrade skills,and design ofa professional development plan for

enhancing competencies. Maryland has also pro-posed a requirement that new teachers satisfy anadditional year of training. Although these newlicensing requirements were opposed by the Mary-land State Teachers Association, the Marylandlicensing provisions become effective January 1,1995.

[Adams, Lorraine (1994, June 30). Marylandtoughens teacher licensing: Recertification to bebased on satisfactory performance. WashingtonPost, Al, A18.]

ImplicationsTeacher licensing is certification, without which

teachers are barred from teaching in 33 states(including Maryland). Entry requirements andcareer competency and performance standards arebecoming increasingl ricter. Teaching compe-tency is net always easy to measure fairly andeffectively. Because development ofa human mindmay be the most important and certainly the mostcritical job in the Information Era, each and everyinput into education will come under increasingscrutiny and fine tuning. The number of statesupgrading standards for teaching-licensing is in-creasing, in answer to the nation's growing con-cern.

* * *

Professional DevelopmentOpportunities

Cosponsored by On the Horizon

Beyond 2000: Visioningthe Future of Community Colleges, February 26-28, 1995, at the Sheraton World Resort, Orlando, Florida.

Meeting the Challenges of Global Change: New Tools for New Times,July 28-31, 1995, at Saint Andrews University, Scotland.

For more information, please contact our office (919-962-2517).

October /November 199413

On the Horizon

COMMENTARY Quality Assessment in Higher

Trudy W. BantaVice Chancellor for

Planning andInstitutional

ImprovementPurdue University

Indianapolis

At the very timewhen governmentsare exerting morecontrol over highereducation in theU.S., centralauthorities in theUK and Europe arerelaxing somewhattheir historicallyfirm grip oninstitutions bygranting moreautonomy.

Conscientiously-implementedevaluation is oneof the mostpowerfulstrategiesavailable to helpinstitutionsmaintain andimprove quality.

EducationRepresentatives from higher educationinstitutions in 28 countries from aroundthe globe attended the Sixth Interna-

tional Conference on Assessing Quality in HigherEducation held in Hong Kong in July 1994.Speakers and delegates collectively provided aninformed perspective on factors influencing qual-ity in higher education worldwide and on meth-ods being employed to assess and improve quality.

Increasing size and diversity of the studentpopulation, coupled with increasing racial andethnic diversification, mean that the array ofstudent abilities, educational backgrounds, andlearning styles confronting instructors in theirclassrooms presents ever-greater pedagogical chal-lenges. In some countries there aren't even enoughclassrooms to accommodate the increasing num-bers. In no country are instructors well-preparedto face the tasks associated with coping withdiversity. Also, in a global economy, mobilityacross national and international lines is increas-ing daily.

The cost of higher education continues to riseat a rate that outstrips virtually every other com-modity except health care. But society's needs forother services are also growing, and educationdollars are now being diverted to address crime,mental health, and the care of older citizens.

Taxpayers and legislators believe potentialworkers are spending too many of their mostproductive years in classrooms rather than jobs.Part of the blame for this delay is institutionalinefficiencies that prevent students from schedul-ing the educational experiences they need whenthey need them in a sequence designed to producea degree in four or five years.

In an age ofconsumerism, academics who haveenacted the dual roles of exploring the traditionsof the past and conducting the research that willshape the future now must focus on the present,on solving contemporary problems, includinghow to communicate scholarly work with a verydiverse population of students.

Levels of autonomy granted to institutions ofhigher education are shifting. In the U.S., statesare enacting performance funding and a host ofother accountability measures; and at the federallevel, Ability to Benefit and Student Right ToKnow requirements appear tz be merely the firstof the salvos that will diminish institutional au-tonomy. We know that the National Goals andState Postsecondary Review Entities are waitingin the wings. However, at the very time whengovernments are exerting more control over highereducation in the U.S., central authorities in theUK and Europe arc relaxing somewhat their his-

torically firm grip on institutions by grantingmore autonomyin exchange for increased re-porting on matters of interest to the government.Interestingly, the increase in government require-ments in the first instance and the decrease in thesecond bring all institutions closer than ever interms of their needs to find indicators of perfor-mance that communicate effectively what highereducation is trying to accomplish.

In the Hong Kong conference on assessment,most participants indicated that conscientiously-implemented evaluation is one of the most pow-erful strategies available to help institutions main-tain and improve quality. Proponents of the di-verse methods presented at the conference allbelieve they provide valuable guidance for makingdecisions about ways to invest increasingly scarceinstitutional resources in ways that increase effi-ciency and effectiveness.

Peer review by visiting teams of academicslong used by accrediting agencies and institutionsto monitor program quality in the U.S.is nowbeing developed as a quality assurance mechanismin Finland, the Netherlands, and the UK. Al-though higher education in Japan has thus farescaped the kind of probing public and govern-mental scrutiny that institutions in the West haveexperienced in the last decade, there are manyindications that a new era of accountability isbeginning there as well, and peer review is beingexplored as a way of addressing the nascent con-cerns about quality in Japanese institutions.

Although only a few states in the U.S. haveconsidered performance fundingawarding aportion of public funds for higher education onthe basis of performance on specified qualitativeindicatorsand only Tennessee has a substantialhistory in implementing it, Sweden, Scotland,and Australia are now experimenting with thisapproach as a national strategy for enhancingquality. The search for worthy performance indi-cators is underway worldwide, with Chile beingone of the most recent participants in the hunt.

TQM or CQI initiatives are taking place inAustrada, China, The Netherlands, South Africa,Taiwan, the UK and the U.S. The TQM qualityassessment is a management philosophy that makescontinuous improvement the responsibility andgoal ofevery employee and relies upon regular andconsistent monitoring of progress. Many U.S.colleges and universities are giving serious consid-eration to subjecting their quality improvementpractices to the intense scrutiny associated withcompetition for the Malcolm Baldrige Award.

Currently the most interesting and potentiallymost effective assessment work is being carriedout by faculty in hundreds of colleges and univer-sities in the U.S. They are setting new goals forstudent learning that are clear, explicit, impor-

On the Horizon 12

14October/November 1994

The expectationfor assessmentworldwide willbecome implicit Inreturn for theInvestments madeIn highereducation.

"1"--767717777President

Ramapo College ofNew Jersey

We must beginimparting tochildren inelementary andsecondary schoolsthe necessarylanguage skillsand understandingof other peoplesthat ourinternational roledemands.

Our increasinglyInternational andmulticulturalsociety and theincreasinglyinterdependentrelations amongnations and groupsrequire collegegraduates with aglobal perspective.

cant, and measurable. In the process of goal-setting they are conferring with employers, gradu-ates, current students, and faculty in related disci-plines to assure focus on the right concepts,sharing these goals with students so that studentsunderstand the standards by which their perfor-mance will be judged. U.S. faculties are ensuringstudents opportunities in their coursework tolearn what is expected of them, providing mul-tiple learning pathways for diverse students tomaster the requisite skills and understandings,and assessing student performance throughoutthe curriculum using written assignments, oralpresentations, portfolios, projects, internships,and assessment centers. U.S. faculties are even

involving some employers or specialists in the fieldas assessors of student work. They also look ataggregate performance to detect weaknesses instudent mastery that call for new goals, improvedteaching techniques, and more powerful assess-ment strategies, before graduation deadlines.

In the future, the expectation for assessmentworldwide will become implicit in return for theinvestments made in higher educationby stu-dents, parents, donors, and state and federal gov-ernments. Experimentation with an increasinglydiverse set of measures will continue as we try tofind approaches that will serve both the account-ability demands of external publics and the inter-nal needs for information to guide improvement.

The Global College inProcess

From Mahwah to Manhattan, from Pragueto Dublin, from Ryazan, Seoul, Paris,Vancouver, and Guadalajara back to

Mahwah, college and university presidents arediscussing the nature of the global university.New York University in Manhattan considersitself a global university. In Ryazan, Russia, theSoros Foundation is sponsoring a project to de-velop a global school. Regardless of setting, thequestion is: How can educators enhance educa-tion and training through out-of-country experi-ences?

The imperatives for this new attention tointernational education come from a variety ofsources: academic and business leaders, govern-ment and foundation officials. To excerpt a quotefrom the president of the Hitachi Foundation:

[The] greatest challenge facing our societyin the next century lies in building andsustaining the links between and amongindividuals, communities, nations, organi-zations, and disciplines that allow effectivecommunity development. [An] educationstrategy serves as the foundation for build-ing human capacity and creating partner-ships, both of which are needed to achieve asustainable, pluralistic, global society (Roy,p. 18).The global schools concept relates to the 1992

Carnegie Endowment report:We must reorient our university curriculaand develop new cadres of professionalsnot only for government but for businessand finance, science and technology, cul-ture and communications. And we mustbegin before college, imparting to childrenin elementary and secondary schools thenecessary language skills and understanding

of other peoples that our international roledemands (Changing Our Ways, 1992, p.87).Our increasingly international and

multicultural society and the increasingly interde-pendent relations among nations and groups re-quire college graduates with a global perspective.Contemporary college graduates need global skillsas much as they need discrete knowledge for aprofession and for citizenship, because upon gradu-ation they either will supervise or be supervised bysomeone from a different ethnic, national, orracial group.

Ramapo College of New Jersey, aspiring to bea global college, includes in its mission and orga-nization an addition to the aims of conventionalmissions. Our emphasis is on the nature andstructure of joint arrangements between and amonginstitutions and businesses in countries other thanour own.

As a global college, Ramapo does not enter intojoint efforts with other institutions solely on abilateral basis, with the supposed global campus asthe hub of the wheel, but fosters multilateralarrangements whereby each partner becomes ac-tive with others in creating a truly global networkofwhich it is an interactive part. We strive to fostera global perspective that is intensely pervasive andbecomes a signature for the institution's activities.

Ramapo's mission statement underscores thecommitment to global education and experience;the people and programs of the College fulfill thatcommitment. Several hundred foreign students,totaling about 5% of the full-time students, from45 countries, and one-half dozen visiting scholarsper year, add to this mixture. In addition, trustees,governors, and advisory committee members aswell as full-time faculty add to the global perspec-tive of all activities.

Profiles that exemplify Ramapo as a globalcollege, in which more than 80% of faculty have

October/November 1994 On the Horizon

The global collegeprepares for thefuture by settinginstitutionalpriorities toenhance studentand facultyopportunities forteaching andlearning, and byorganizing itscurriculum,campus activities,and communityoutreach withthese prioritiesclearly in mind.

substantial international experience, include:A faculty member who as director of the

International Business Program specializes inCanada-U.S. trade, has developed ties with Mexi-can experts in order to enhance the College'sprogramming about NAFTA using teleconfer-encing for scholarly and student exchanges

A Fit 'bright Scholar from the University ofSienna (Italy) who helped our Italian StudiesProgram exchange visiting scholars and graduatestudents with Italian universities

A former Executive-on-Loan from IBM whoteaches international marketing combined thebusiness "connection" with his experience in Eu-rope to globalize courses in the InternationalBusiness Program

The founding director of the InternationalTelecommunications Center and a major force increating a telecommunications linkwithVolgogradPedagogical State University in Russia who builtthe infrastructure to support more than 130 tele-conferences per year for faculty, friends, and cor-porate patrons.

Students can earn and learn in paid academicinternships in a dozen countries, participate inmore than a dozen study-abroad programs andexchanges, and engage in discussions with stu-dents, scholars, artists, and officials anywhere inthe world as part ofour routine classroom telecon-ferences.

The true test of a global college's success is how

well its students and graduates succeed in theinternational arena. Some of the students whodemonstrate this include:

A psychology major whose global trainingresulted in a career with a major study abroadorganization

A double major in international studies andphilosophy who progressed from a job in theAfrican American Institute to a job in interna-tional development at the SOROS Foundation

An international studies graduate who be-came program coordinator for the Citizen Ex-change Council dealing with former Soviet states

The full list is too lengthy for this article. Themessage, however, is an obvious one. The globalcollege prepares for the future by setting institu-tional priorities to enhance student and facultyopportunities for teaching and learning, and byorganizing its curriculum, campus activities, andcommunity outreach with these priorities clearlyin mind. To accomplish these goals, the globalcollege ensures that all decisions about hiring,program creation and reviews, promotion andtenure, honors and awards, partnerships and bud-get will support the development of the globalmission.

[Roy, Delwin A. (1994, Spring). New partner-ing for higher education and the corporate sector,Association of Go ierning Boards of Universities andColleges, Occasional Paper, 18 (8); Changing ourways: America and the new world (1992). CarnegieEndowment National Commission on Americanand the New World. Washington, D.C.: TheBrookings Institution.]

IN THE 'NETThe Jericho Project:

Perry BrownAnderson County

(TN) Schools

Networking Schools andCommunities Via TV Cable

nderson County Schools, a small subur-ban system 20 miles west of Knoxville,Tennessee, has begun to implement a

project to connect local homes and businesseswith the 17 Local Area Networks presently serv-ing their 6,700 students. Using the local TV cablewiring and broadband telecommunication tech-nology, the project allows the county to figura-tively remove classroom walls so that educationoccurs not nay in public schools, but in homesand businesses, at any time or place. Moreover, itconnects the community with the rest of theworld, thereby broadening perspectives and en-gendering the use of information readily availablethrough online resources.

The ow cost of joining this network, enablesthe ptoject to provide a variety of services to allsocioeconomic groups, helping tc eliminate a

polarized society of information haves and have-nots. For example, Jane, a seventh grade sti dent atone of our small, rural middle schools, is from afamily with limited resources. She has a report onrainfall in the Southeast due tomorrow. Using herlow cost computer and the family's TV cable, shedoes her homework via the network by usingonline CD-ROMs to retrieve pertinent data. Us-ing her Internet account, she checks with the 40other students across the Southeast who haveagreed to help her collect data. With the onlineword processor, she is able to write, spell checkand grammar check her report, thus integratingscience, math and language arts in completing herreport, all done at home after the school is lockedfor the night.

At this time, Anderson County elementaryschools are completely networked so that eachchild has access to 54 of the latest, most education-ally sound, software programs. Teachers and ad-ministrators at all K-12 schools have access toservers containing productivity software, includ-ing gradebooks, word processing, spread sheets,

On the Horizon

16October/November 1994

Within two years,the project willallow 24-hour,year-round accessto this software bystudents, teachers,administrators andother countycitizens.

The ability to joinall of the schoolsin a system with alow cost, highlyproductive widearea network iscrucial to thecontinued successof education.

data bases, and presentation software. This vari-ety of educational and productivity software pro-motes the effective integration of instructionaltechnologies in the classroom. Although theseservices currently exist only at the physical schoolsites, the project will allow 24-hour, year-roundaccess to this software by students, teachers, ad-ministrators and other county citizens within twoyears.

Because these networks are Internet connected,students and teachers have access to the "informa-tion superhighway" without the added expense ofmodems and long distance phone charges. E-mailis accessible to anyone on the network, thusenhancing teacher-parent, teacher-student andteacher-teacher communication at an exponen-tial rate. Students who need remediation or whowish to accelerate their learning may do so in theevenings and during the traditional "school's out"time. Teachers can direct this learning by allow-ing students to use only the software that studentsneed. Updating and tracking student usage can bedone from remote locations. During the regularschool year, homebound students and studentswho are ill may keep up with their regular workthrough software access and easy teacher commu-nication.

Anderson County preschools already have acable connection and only need to purchase com-puters to have access to the network. The same istrue for alternate school settings and Adult Basic

Education. Although the K-12 schools have prior-ity of usage, community businesses also have theopportunity to use expensive software packagesfor only a nominal cable usage fee. Thus theproject is a win-win situation for all parties in-volved.

This model is easily duplicated; any schoolsystem could use it. The ability to join all of theschools in a system with a low cost, highly produc-tive wide area network is crucial to the continuedsuccess of education. Broadening the use of aschool system's resources makes great financialsense, both for the school system and the commu-nity. As use of the super information highway ofInternet becomes easier, the demand for accesswill rise accordingly. When students of all agesfind that physical location is no longer importantto learning, the walls of education will "cometumblin' dow n," and the Jericho Project will trulybe a success!

[Editor's note: Bernard Glassman, who regu-larly writes this column, found a message by PerryBrown describing the Jericho Project while scan-ning (he prefers the term "surfing") various listservson the Internet. He asked Mr. Brown to modifyhis listsery posting for publication because it servesas a precursor of the technological transformationemerging in education and in community devel-opment For more information on the JerichoProject, please contact Mr. Brown at (615) 463-7435 or p_brown@sacam.oren.ortn.edu .]

TOOLSMicrosoft Office

irrna==ssman

Word 6.0 is themost deceptivelyeasy-to-use, andfun-to-use wordprocessor I haveever seen.

It's here at lastthe new and improvedMicrosoft Office, containing an increasinglyintegrated package of word processing, pre-

sentation, and spreadsheet/charting applicationsso that you can analyze and prepare presentationsto your planning committee with utmost ease.

This review will be in two parts; part oneappearing in this issue will focus on MicrosoftWord 6.0 for the Macintosh and for Windows.Part two, in the December/January issue, willfocus on PowerPoint 4.0 and Excell 5.0.

I've been using Word 6.0 and learning it underWindows for some months now, waiting to re-view it until I had it running on my Macintosh.Now I can tell you that it is the most deceptivelyeasy-to-use, and fun-to-use word processor I haveever seen.

Easy to use, because you can produce a letter ora memo without going near a manual or a helpscreen. Move your pointer near any of the tools onthe button bar, and a little label pops up to tell youwhat it does. And the standard tool bar does at

least 90% of what you do most to your text.Deceptive, because deep within the manual

and the help screens lies a full programminglanguageWordBasic. With it, you can do justabout anything imaginable to customize, auto-mate, further simplify, constrain, standardize...youname it. Even without WordBasic, it has theeasiest macro-building facility I have ever encoun-tered. But most of us write relatively few macros,and only a few of us will use WordBasic, so what'sin it for the rest of us?

First, the transition to Word 6.0 from thatgreat wheezing academic workhorse WordPerfectis almost seamless. There is even help and com-mand-equivalents especially for WordPerfect us-ers, so that if you are hopelessly addicted to Alt-Shift-F10 for bold (or whatever) you can have thatuntil you learn to use the little button with thebold B on it. Let me say unequivocally that if youhave been using WordPerfect for DOS and arejust now making the switch to Windows, gostraight to Word. Do not stop and flirt withWordPerfect. Forget about the nagging feelingthat everyone else uses WordPerfect. You can save

October/November 1994 15

17On the Horizon

There are"Wizards," ineffect littleprograms withinWord that willwalk you throughevery step ofsetting up a mail-merge document,or a custom faxcover sheet, or anexpense report, ora custom calendarpage.

your files in WordPerfect format, or read theirs, aseasily as you manage any other files in Word, andfar more easily than you manage them inWordPerfect. Period.

Second, it does those pesky tables the way theyshould be done. If you want to get a quick taste ofthe greatness of this program (there are thorns onthis rose, and I'll get to them in a minute) just clickthe Table button on the tool bar. It becomes aminiature table, and as you drag across it, it growsuntil it is as many cells across and down as youwant. Release the mouse button and you haveinserted your table. A table that is extremelyformatable at the same time that it is a simplespreadsheet. You can declare a cell to be the sum ofthe cells above it, for example. Change the valuesin one of those cells, and the sum changes. If yourwork is already in another spreadsheet, you canbring a representation of the spreadsheet into yourWord document, and it will update when youroriginal spreadsheet does.

Next, Word sports what its makers call "frames."This is a special category of object that can containpictures, independently formatted text, a table,anything that might be on a page. What makes aframe so valuable is that it can be independentlypositioned within the text. Put a graph in a frame,linked, say, to your PowerPoint or Harvard Graph-ics or Excel program, and then reposition it bypointing, clicking and dragging, just as if you werein a page layout program.

I'm barely scratching the surface here. There

On the HorizonUniversity of North CarolinaSchool of EducationCB# 3500 Peabody HallChapel Hill, NC 27599-3500

are "Wizards," in effect little programs withinWord that will walk you through every step ofsetting up a marl -merge document, or a customfax cover sheet, or an expense report, or a customcalendar page.

And there is outlining, and table of contents-building, and index generation; and you will findyourself doing them even if you did not do sobefore.

Now for a couple of thorns. This is a very bigprogram. The full package used 24 megabytes ofmy hard drive on my Windows machine and myMac, but that does include dictionary, thesaurus,grammar checker, clip art, everything. And it useslots of RAM. By default, it will eat 2 megabytes,and it would like a whole lot more. And it is slowon a 486 at 25 megahertz, and slower still on a Mac'lei with 8 megabytes of RAM running System 7Pro. On the Mac, clicking on the File menu canresult in a one-second pause before the menudrops down. There is even a perceptible delaybetween a keystroke and seeing the text appear onthe monitor. Under Windows, it will pick anawkward moment to autosave to disk, such aswhen you are trying to get down that deathlessphrase, and those autosaves take tea darn long.

Oddly, it prints like a speed-demon. So if youare one of those very special and wonderful peoplewho write against a deadline, banging out majortruths until moments before the meeting youneed them for, you have every chance of geeing tothe meeting on time.

Non-Profit OrganizationU.S. Postage

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Redesigning American Public Education

James S. ColemanDepartment of

SociologyThe University of

Chicago

New designs callfor organizationsthat are output-driven.

IN THIS ISSUE:

American elementary and secondary schoolsare seriously deficient in academic achieve-ment. Relative to students in other coun-

tries of the developed world, American studentsscore at or near the bottom on standardized tests.As one investigator writes, "the gap betweenAmerican high school seniors in middle classsuburbs and their counterparts in many northernEuropean countries and Japan is larger than thetwo to three grade level equivalent gap betweenwhites and blacks in the U.S." (Bishop, 1991).

In the last issue of On the Horizon, RichardHeydinger described a model to reinvent highereducation to meet the challenges of the 21stcentury. In this issue, I will explicate a sociologicalperspective and concomitant model for redesign-ing American primary and secondary educationto meet these challenges.

Most American schools are administrativelydriven, three-tiered hierarchical authority sys-tems, with teachers at the bottom, the buildingprincipal as the immediate authority, and thedistrict superintendent at the top. This followsstandard early 20th century bureaucratic admin-istrative structural design.

Max Weber, one of the first to develop a theoryfor non-primordial constructed organizations(such as school bureaucracies), describes suchorganizations as rational authority systems. Overthe years, new forms have appeared. In the 30s,

Redesigning American Public EducationJames Coleman 1From the Editor On the Horizon's World WideWeb Site, James L. Morrison 3

Trends and EventsSocial - Lois Graff 5Technological - Wally Albers 6Economic - Menial Pritchett 7Environmental Douglas Crawford-Brown 8Political - Laurence R. Marcus 9

Licensed for internal duplication to:

General Motors, a multidivisional firm, gave moreautonomy and accountability to divisions of thefirm. Another innovative organizational changewas franchising, setting the rules from on-high, butsharing income. Spin -offs were engaged in quiteearly by 3M of Minneapolis; this process allowedfor joint benefits between the employing centcrand the employee inventor or idea generator. Thecomputer hardware and software industries, aswell as genetic engineering firms, have also takensteps to vary and update the bureaucratic hierar-chical design.

Most recently, American firms have been ex-perimenting with the Japanese idea of reallocationof rights, as described by Aoki (1988) and others.Using pay incentives for high quality and quantityin production, firms allow workers the right toreject parts that are out ofspecification and to stopthe assembly line. Employees are linked in newand creative groups, Quality Circles that are inter-dependent in effort, goals, and rewards. Thesegroups have collective authority over their mem-bers, replacing the authority of line foremen orsupervisors. This means that norms develop inthese groups that are consistent with and reinforcethe organization's goals.

Whereas Weberian bureaucracy was adminis-tratively-driven, the new designs call for organiza-tions that are output-driven. The degree to whichthe organization as a whole can be said to be

CommentaryTwo Futures, Don Barker 11Making Technology Work, Ian Jukes 11The Student As InvestorTheodore Leverenz 12

In the 'NetBumps on the Road to the Global VillagePent' Brown 14

ToolsMicrosoft Office: The Rest of the StoryBernard Glassman 15

i3 BEST COPY AVAILABLE

How can we usethese new formsof organization toguide us inproducing greaterschoolperformance?

Replaceadministratively-driven schools byoutput-drivenschools.

Use quality circlesand backwardpolicing to createa structure thatinduces informalnorms supportingorganizationalgoals.

output-driven depends on the degree to which theexternal criterion on which the rewards are con-tingent is transmitted to subparts within. Thisoccurs by explicit design in backward policing, a

policing of the quality of the product that rever-berates backward step by step through the pro-duction process of the organization.

How can we use these new forms of organiza-tion to guide us in producing greater schoolperformance? Replace administratively-drivenschools by output-driven schools. Use qualitycircles and backward policing to create a structurethat induces informal norms supporting organi-zational goals. Specifically:

I . Impose external standards as the basis for allevaluations of student performance.

2. Base evaluations on two measures: level ofperformance andperformance-gain or value-added.

3. Provide yearly rewards to teachers, students,and parents for level of performance and perfor-mance-gain.

4. Use final output criteria (the externally-imposed standards) as the starting point for de-signing evaluations at each stage in the educationof a child, creating a system with short feedbackloops.

5. Allocate rights and responsibilities not onlyto individuals, but also to groups of teachers,students, and parents in order to encourage thedevelopment ofsocial capital (i.e., informal normsthat support educational goals).

6. Use a core of academic achievement plus anarea of specialized performance (which may beacademic, but need not be) as the performancecriteria.

Given these elements, a number of organiza-tional designs are possible. Three are given below.

Design 1At the end of each year, students take exter-

nally-designed and externally-administered tests.Two grades are given: one is the level of perfor-mance on the tests; the other is the value-added, or

performance-gain (the difference between testscores at the end of the previous year and testscores at the end of the current year). At the endof high school, students develop a portfolio con-sisting of scores on each academic subject, plusperformance evidence in a specialized field; port-folios are graduates' credentials for employers orfor admission to colleges.

Teachers at each of the three school levels(elementary [1 -41, middle [5-81, secondary [9-I 21) are rewarded each year for the value-added tothe children who "graduated" from their respo 1-sibil ity. Teachers at each of the three school levelsare rewarded each year with greater autonomy in

teaching, including choice of the number of stu-dents they will have; the reward is based on thetotal achievement gain of children for whom theteachers have been responsible for graduating overthe past two years. The level of achievement aswell as the average achievement gain are publishedto aid children and parents in choosing amongschools.

Children and parents are rewarded for value-added at a given level, with free tuition forpostsecondary education, or for postsecondaryvocational-technical training. The amount of freetuition depends on the amount of value-added.Which schools children can apply to are deter-mined by their performance level at the end ofa 4-year block. Schools (i.e., the teachers) determinethe number of students they accept (a decisionthat affects their potential bonus, which dependsupon totalnot averagevalue-added). Teach-ers cannot choose which students they have. Whena school might be oversubscribed, students' prior-ity in admission is determined by their level ofachievement on the examination just taken. Teach-ers in a particular high school must contract withspecialist teachers for the specialized area of eachstudent in their care. Specialist teachers wouldteach, or coach, students from more than oneschool.

The cohort of students at a given age level in aschool is rewarded each year as a group for the totalvalue-added for the group for that year. Thereward, given each year on the basis of that year'svalue-added, consists of a certificate usable forpurchasing school resources (e.g., computers, au-diovisual or other technology aids or field trips) tobe "redeemed" by that cohort during its tenure inthe school, and then left with the school when thecohort graduates. The decision about how tospend the certificate is made jointly by students,parents, and teachers.

The group of 4 to 16 teachers responsible for agiven level of students (four years) is rewardedtogether for joint performance. There is no schoolprincipal. Decisions are made collectively by thegroup of teachers who constitute the school. Theremight be more than one school in a building.Schools in the same building could use resources(health, welfare, and other agencies) housed in thesame building. Any set of teachers that satisfiesstate qualification requirements can set up as aschool if a certain minimum of students is en-rolled.

The school is required to take responsibility forthe student during a certain period of each week-day, and the student is required to attend theschool. The school may offer to some or allstudents the option of spending a greater portion

Continued on page 5

On the Horizon 2 December 1994/January 1995

FROM THE

EDITORJames L. Morrison

Program inEducationalLeadership

The University ofNorth Carolina at

Chapel Hill

On the Horizon's World WideWeb Site

e are taking our service to a new levelwith the establishment of a WorldWide Web (WWW) site, where you

will have easy access to past issues of On theHorizon, a futures planning database, as well as toother information to help you work more effec-tively.

Picture yourself at your computer where youhave just launched your World Wide Web(WWW) browser. At the prompt, type <http://sunsite.unc.edu/horizon> to connect to our homepage on Sunsite, one of the major Internet corn-

puters, where you will see our headline graphicand an index containing the following lines: PastIssues, Futures Planning Database, and Gems fromHorizon List. If you click on the line Past Issues, thescreen will open to another index, each line ofwhich contains a Volume and Issue Number.Double click on, for example, Volume 1, Number1, for the first page of the first issue we published.You can then scroll through the issue. Ifyou see anarticle you like, you can transfer (FTP) it to yourcomputer where it can be stored and printed atyour convenience.

At any point in your scrolling, you can returnto the home page to select another feature. If youselect Futures Planning Database, you will see a

EDITORIAL

BOARD

James L. MorrThe University of North

Blanche Fried Arons, Associate EditorLanguage Associates

Bernard Glassman, Associate EditorPragmatix:Information Design

Wallace Hannum, Associate EditorUNCChapel Hill

Walter A. Albers, Jr.Albers Systems Inc.

Don BarkerGonzaga University

Peter BishopUniversity of Houston at Clear Lake

David BrockUniversity of Auckland

Arnold Brown -.Weiner, Edrich & Brown, Inc.

Dale F. CampbellUniversity of Florida

Gordon CaweltiAlliencc for Curricular Reform

Gregg EdwardsAcademy for Advanced and Strategic Studies

Jonathan FifeERIC Clearinghouse on Higher Education

Lois GraffThe George Washington University

Warren GroffNova University

E. Raymond HackettAuburn University

Richard B. HeydingerAlliance Per Higher Education Strategics

Jeffery HolmesCanadian Bureau for Int'l Education

Bruce Anthony JonesUniversity of Pittsburgh

ison, EditorCarolina at Chapel HillIan Jukes

The FutureVicw Group

Asterios G. KefalasUniversity of Georgia

Larry MarcusRowan College

Michael MarienFuture Survey

Graham T.T. MolitorPublic Policy Forecasting, Inc.

James OgilvyGlobal Business Network

Susan OtterbourgDelman Educational Communications

N. Andrew OverstreetDanville (VA) Public Schools

Tracy LaQuey ParkerCisco Systems, Inc.

Marvin W. PetersonUniversity of Michigan

James G. PtaszyskiWake Forest University

Lewis A. RhodesAmerican Association of School Administrators

Arthur B. ShostakDrexel University

David Pearce SnyderSnyder Family Enterprises

Gerald UnksHigh School Journal

Frans A. Van VughtUniversity of Twente, the Netherlands

George WilkinsonThe Wilkinson Group

Ian H. WilsonWolf Enterprises

On the Horizon focuses on potential developments and critical trends affecting education. It is published in October/November, December/

January, February/March, April/May, and June /July by the Institute for Academic and Professional Leadership, School of Education, The

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. ISSN 1074-8121. Annual cost: individual, $24.50; organizational, $49.50; site license, $124.50.

For more information, contact Professor James L. Morrison, Editor, On the Horizon, of Assistants to the Editor, K.C. Brown, Rabbi Picketal, Adam

Bianchi or Jonathan Barker, CB* 3500 Peabody Hall. University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599. (919) 962.2517. Internet

Morrisonguncedu.

1 he Institute for Academic and Professional leadership serves educational leaders by providing professional development workshops and

seminars. For more information about the Institute, its facilities, and its services, contact William S. Pate, Program Director, .I.he Friday Center, CB

41020, UNC-Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599. (919) 962.3276. Interne( iapktunc.edu.

December 1994/January 1995 3 On the Horizon

?1BEST COPY AVAILABLE

We need corporatesponsors to helpus expand andmaintain theWWW site.

screen containing a subject heading index. Selecta subject heading and you will go to a screencontaining an abstract very much like the onebelow, including the bibliographical citation anda section about the implications of that abstractfor educational leaders. Many of the abstracts thatdo not get printed in regular issues of On theHorizon will be posted in this section. When youwant to use or disseminate this information toyour colleagues, you can transfer a copy of it toyour computer to print and distribute.

--

AbstractTitle of Article: How we will work in the year 2000Author/Affiliation: Kiechel Ill, WalerPublication: FortuneDate: May 17, 1993 Pages: 38-52Summary:By the year 2000, the average size of U.S. companies will have decreased dramatically. Blue-collar workers will be replaced by technicians who can program computers, conductlaboratory tests, or fix copiers. Employees will package themselves as a marketable portfolioof skills. Consequently:

Businesses will employ fewer people. An average company eliminated 20% of itsemployees over the last 10 years while tripling its investment in information technology.Traditional hierarchies will give way to networked organizations connected to customersand suppliers via electronic channelsvirtual corporations.

Technicians, together with professionals (accountants. scientists, and engineers), will exceedthe blue collar work force.Vertical division of labor will be replaced by horizontal divisionnot "Where do you standon the corporate ladder?" but "What do you know how to do?"The standard business paradigm will shift from making a product to providing a service.Work will be redefined to involve constant learning, more high-order thinking. and fewer

nine-to-five hours. The Internet and related facilities will allow more people to live and workwhere they want, hooking up electronically to the rest of their organization and working on aproject-by-project basis.

Implications:Educational leaders need to anticipate the implications of advances in computer technology.work time scheduling, and electronic commuting for then organizations Educationalorganizations need to increase quality management programs for internal professional staffand faculty development as well as for external programs serving profit and non-profitorganizations. Continuing education programs must update employee technical skills forbusinesses moving to networked virtual organizations using electronic telecommuting.

To contribute an abstract to the database, clickon a line titled, My Contribution to the Database.There you will see instructions (see box below)and a form to insert bibliographic information,your name, abstract, and statement of implica-tions. We will edit this information and insert it inthe futures planning database for others to reviewand use. We may also post it to Horizon List fordiscussion and commentary, which can then beinserted at the end of your abstract. The richnessand utility of the database depends upon contri-butions from you and our colleagues in variousorganizational and cultural settings around theworld.

To review the last section, Gems from HorizonList, return to the Home Page and select that line.Here we have indexed discussion strings by sub-ject title that have been posted to Horizon List.These discussions will stimulate your thinkingabout critical emerging issues, trends, and poten-tial events for formulating strategic plans andpolicies for your organization. Again, they areavailable for you to transfer to your computer forprinting and distribution to your colleagues.

In addition, this section indexes relevant docu-ments and services for educational leaders to use inplanning for the future. To review these docu-ments, click on the title, and you are taken towherever the document resides on the Internet, beit in Geneva, Berlin, London, Moscow, Tokyo, orWashington DC.

A REQUEST: we need corporate sponsors tohelp us expand and maintain the WWW site. Ifyou know of an organization that would supportthis venture, let us know. We would be delightedto acknowledge their support on our Home Pageand on our masthead.

Instructions: Abstracting Information for the Futures Planing Database

The purpose of On theHorizon's futures planning data-base is to provide: (a) objectivedescriptions of the current envi-ronment and (b) signals of po-tential change for educationalleaders to take into account whenplanning for the future.

Criteria for Abstracting1)ms the item represent events,

trends. developments, or ideasyou have never before encoun-tered?

l )oes the item contradict previ-

ous assumptions or your own be-liefs about what seems to be hap-pening?

Can you link the item to otherabstracts you have previously writ-ten or read?

Do the implications of the itemhave an explicit or implicit bear-ing on education?

Writing an AbstractSummary SectionAn abstract is an easy-to-read

digest of material in print. l he

abstract should he written in con-

cise, accurate language fully under-standable without reference to theoriginal source. Questions to askyourself: "What is the primary pointor conclusion of the article?" Thisshould be the lead sentence of theabstract. Follow this sentence withthe key premises that support thisconclusion. Use quotation marksfor direct citations from the text.Whenever possible, include statis-tical data. limit the summary to nomore than one-half page.

ImplicationsThe implications section of the

abstract answers thequestion, "Howwill-the information in this articleaffect education?" This might in-clude a list of those emerging issuessuggested by the article, a descrip-tion of fut ure events that may occuras a result of the trend identified bythe article, and/or an identificationof issue stakeholders if they arc notlisted in the article. Indicate yourreasons for selecting the article forinclusion into the database.

On the Horizon 4 December 1994/January 1995

r,

We must convinceeducators thatcareful applicationof well-establishedsociologicalprinciples can bethe basis for newdesigns ofschools.

SOCIALLois Gr

School of Businessand Public

ManagementThe George

Washington University

Continued from page 2of each day at school, and the student and parentmay choose whether or not to accept such offers.(This provision differs little from the existingextracurricular activities [sports, drama, etc.] thatare carried out after school, except that it includesthe additional possibility of curricular activities.)

Design 2

Design 2 differs from Design 1 principally inthe possibility for some children in the middleand high school to spend part of their school timeas assistant teachers in lower schools.

At the middle school and the high school,students with the highest value-added in a givenyear have the choice of spending half of schooltime in the next year as an assistant teacher in alower-level school. Students choosing to spendhalf time as assistant teachers receive tuition ex-penses for half a year at a college or in vocationaltraining. In fee-paying schools, such students payonly half tuition for that year. Assistant teachersparticipate in the bonus received by the schoolthey are teaching in, at a reduced level comparedto the regular teachers' bonus.

Design 3This design is based on an incentive structure

that depends on interscholastic competition ratherthan standardized tests. This design differs fromDesign 1 in that external tests are replaced byfrequent interscholastic competition involvingboth team and individual performance. Modelsfor these already exist in some areas, such asinterscholastic mathematics team competition,debate, and statewide contests involving bothacademic subjects and the performing arts. Allstudents take core subjects. Students compete on

advanced core subjects and in other areas theyselect. Tournament competitions lead to indi-vidual and team ranking. Performance-gains of astudent in Design 3 are determined by the differ-ences in the student's rank (combined rank over allsubjects contested) between the beginning andend of the year or at the entrance to and exit froma given school. With this modification, all of theDesign 1 principles that depend on measurementof value-added or level of performance apply toDesign 3.

ConclusionNot everyone will embrace all, or perhaps any,

of these school designs eagerly. In part this isbecause it is difficult to do more than sketch thebare outlines of the designs. What is more impor-tant than gaining acceptance for a particular de-sign, or even a particular aspect of a design, is toconvince educators that careful application ofwell-established sociological principles can be thebasis for new designs of schools. It is my hope thatthis article may serve as a challenge for others todraw upon basic principles in developing compet-ing designs.

(Editor's note: This article is abridged from apaper presented as the author's Sorokin Lecture atthe annual meeting of the Eastern Sociolog;calSociety, Boston, March 1993, and later published[Coleman, 1993].)

[Aoki, Masahiko. (1988). Information, incen-tives and bargaining in the Japanese economy. Cam-bridge: Cambridge University Press; Bishop, John.(1991). A strategy for achieving excellence insecondary education: The role of the state govern-ment. Paper presented at the Chief State SchoolOfficers Summer Institute; Coleman, James(1993). The design of organizations and the rightto act. Sociological Forum, 8 (4), 527-546.]

A New Transformation in theWorld of Work

choing a theme sounded in several publi-cations recently, Peter Drucker (1994)describes a century of profound change in

the nature of work. At the start of the century,farmers and domestic servants comprised thelargest group of workers. By the 1950s, however,industrial workers had become the largest singlegroup in every developed country. That is history.What Drucker wants to examine is the differencebetween the eagerness with which workers movedfrom farm work to industrial jobs, as compared tothe difficulty in the current movement from

industrial jobs to theoretical and analytical work.The former change, occurring in every developedcountry, was accomplished voluntarily, and withcomparative comfort. The current change, alsooccurring in every developed country, is meetingwith opposition and great personal difficulty. Whythe difference?

An obvious answer is that the jobs emerging forthe new millennium require new skills. The changefrom farmer to factory worker required shiftingfrom one set of manual skills to another. Today'snew workers will be knowledge workers, whomust shift from their manual skills tc a set oftheoretical and analytical knowledge that can beacquired only through formal schooling. Jnfor-

December 1994/January 1995 5 On the Horizon

Even the betterstudents in ourcurrent systemmay not meet thestandards requiredof a knowledge-based society.

TECHNOLOGICAL

Wally AlbersAlbers Systems, Inc

There's been anexplosion ingenetic researchin the last decade.

tunately, most people in developed and develop-ing countries are poorly equipped to compete forthese positions. They do not leave the currentformal schooling system with the skills to enterknowledge jobs, nor do they have the skills or thevalues that will allow them to continue to changeand adapt. Even the better students in our currentsystem may not meet the standards required of aknowledge-based society.

Drucker defines an educated person in thisnew society as "somebody who has learned how tolearn, and who continues learning, especially byformal education, throughout his or her lifetime"(p. 66). Can we develop such a person through ourpresent educational system?

[Drucker, Peter. (1994). The age of socialtransformation, Atlantic Monthly, 247 (5), 53-80.1

ImplicationsEducators have difficulty providing a thor-

ough grounding in fundamentals. Although el-ementary and secondary education should beginto stir in its students a desire for and a knowledgeof how to learn as well as a willingness to take risksand explore issues, those two ideals are more likelyto be addressed in higher educationin trainingschools and in colleges and universities.

To guide workers into the new era, schoolsmust meet the challenge of these two dimensions.

1. A knowledge of how to learn: the ability toask questions, the skill of knowing how to findanswers and to critically evaluate these answers;and the ability to adapt to what may occur in thefuture

2. A love oflearning for the present and through-out lifea culture and value set that looks to

continuous acquisition of knowledge and enjoysthe exploration of concepts for the future.

The answer to all our needs comes after weaccept certain questions. How do we move froma bureaucratic focus on our current restrictive,routinized system of education to the develop-ment of a vision for the future? How do we shiftemphasis from memorizing facts to learning howto solve problems? How can we encourage stu-dents to take risks and explore issues? How do wedevelop and reward the processes used in suchexploration? There seems to be agreement thatchange in educational preparation is a basic re-quirement toward facilitating the shift into theage of knowledge-based jobs. And, indeed, howdo educational institutions themselves becomelearning organizations a la Senge?

A love of learning is most critical to the successof individuals in a knowledge society. Studentswill not become productive lifelong learners merelybecause we brandish tests they must pass beforethey can continue. Every educator can point to thestudent who has become proficient at "psychingout" the instructor, but who has never developedan understanding that places the subject in con-text, an interest that leads to information beingretained, or the desire to answer questions beyondwhat will be "on the exam." What do we do toinstill a passion to continue learning? This passionclearly will be needed for the adaptable knowledgeworker of the next century.

We have reached a consensus on the need toassist workers in thLir movement toward a newwork era. Now we need to develop synergy amongthe individual efforts by schools and school sys-tems so that we will not fail the generations ofstudents yet to come.

The Human Genome Project:Starting to Crank the Handle

There's been an explosion in genetic re-search in the last decade. An obsessivesearch is growing for the genes that un-

derlie the thousands of diseases that have plaguedhumankind. The Human Genome Project is anorganized approach to the mapping of the entirehuman genome of the DNA in all 23 pairs ofchromosomes, in order to figure out the completesequence of the approximately 3 billion nucle-otides linking the dual spiral strands of a DNAmolecule. This mind boggling project, which asrecently as a decade ago would have been consid-ered a pipe dream, is now considered eminentlydo-able and is well on its way to completion.

There are many benefits to be realized bysociety and the part of the population that suffers

from genetic disorders. Already identified are thegenes that underlie heart disease, colon cancer,cystic fibrosis, a form of muscular dystrophy,Huntington's disease, and one inherited form ofbreast cancer. We're standing on the threshold ofidentifying genes responsible for deafness, dys-lexia, diabetes, and sexual orientation. The list justgoes on and on. A recent edition of Science (vol.265, 30 Sept. 1994) is recommended for theinterested reader who would like a more detailedprogress report on the Human Genome Project.

Along with the successes of the Human Ge-nome Project come unintended social conse-quences. All kinds of ethical issues surround ques-tions of autonomy, privacy, justice, and equity.Counseling has become a prerequisite to anydecisions to undergo genetic testing. Also, there isa strong movement to limit genetic testing tothose tests that are medically therapeutic. How-

On the Horizon 6 December 1994/January 1995

0 4

There may be anexodus of manyeducators to thebusiness ranks ofstart-upcompaniescapitalizing on thenew marketsspawned by theHuman GenomeProject.

ECONOMICMerrial Pritchett

Institutional ResearchUniversity of

Baltimore

Customerfeedback is drivingthe need for newideas in highereducation.

ever, there is as yet very little agreement on whichtests qualify. For example, how should we classifygenetic tests for se- selection or trait enhance-ment?

Another set of issues relates to :he developingcommercialization of newly discovered medicaltreatments for the various diseases and traits forwhich specific genes have been identified. If his-tory is any indicator, then some of the best aca-demic scientists will spin off from faculties to startbusinesses to provide medical products and mo-lecular engineering consulting that will becomepart of the growing genetic engineering basedmarket.

implicationsIt is such unintended consequences that will

have significant implications for education andeducators. As more is learned about the gene maps

and their connections to various learning disabili-ties and other barriers to learning, educators shouldbe prepared to alter the process of teaching andcounseling in accordance with the new knowledgegenerated. Educational sycholog-y graduatesshould be expected to play a greater role in re-sponding to societal needs, while also being aparticular beneficiary of the knowledge generatedfrom the Human Genome Project. The entirefield ofspecial education will experience this sameduality of new roles and new insights. There maybe an exodus of many educators to the businessanks of start-up cc opanies capitalizing on the

new markets spawned by the Human GenomeProject, requiring a spurt of replacement andrecruiting in order to keep a balanced, qualityfaculty in genetics and molecular engineering.

Reengineering in HigherEducation

he latest management technique to mi-grate from the corporate world to theworld of higher education is reengineering.

This business redesign process has been croppingup on American college and university campusesfrom California to New York. Why? What aresome of the results? What is reengineering?

In their book, Reengineering the Corporation: AManifesto for Business Revolution, Michael Ham-mer and James Chanpy, leading gurus ofreengineering in business, define reengineering as"starting over," "the fundamental rethinking andradical redesign of...process to achieve dramaticimprovements in cost, quality, service, and speed."Four wordsfundimental, radical, dramatic, andprocessare key to understanding reengineering.

The wordfundamentalasks us why we do whatwe do. What is the purpose of the process? Ex-ample: What is the purpose of the undergraduateadmissions process? Examination shows this var-ies with the specific campus. A campus withselective admissions may use the process to screenapplicants. An open admissions institution mayuse it simply to collect the application fee. Eachadmissions process should be engineered differ-ently because each serves different ends.

This leads us to Hammer and Chanpy's sec-ond key word, radical. How drastic must ourreinventing be to accomplish our specific pur-pose? Example: Should we be expending our timeand efforts collecting dem. ,graphic data from

students? Wouldn't sampling serve our manage-ment needs just as well? Or could we not tap in tothe federal government's data, gathered by theCensus Bureau? Wouldn't that be cheaper? Radi-cal reengineering is "disregarding... [our currently]existing structures and procedures and inventingcomplete new ways of accomplishing work."

Dramatic changes include overhauling institu-tions' core processes, such as teaching. research,and public services. Example: Redesigning in-struction from faculty lecturing to physically-present students to students viewing faculty devel-oped multimedia presentations over the informa-tion superhighway.

Process, the most important key word, and theone most difficult to deal with, requires a broad-ening of focus, from singling out the job, person,or organizational si ucture, to total inclusivity. Aholistic view, in the business-like terminology ofreengineering, adds to the technological reinven-tion of the product and the customer, wordseducators eschew on traditional, moral, political,or perhaps even snobbish grounds. On practicalgrounds, however, if education is going to acceptadaptations of business processes, then educationis a product bought by and delivered to customers(students, and by bill paying extension, their par-ents and/or the government).

Customer feedback is driving the need for newideas in higher education. There are innumerableschools of thought among educators on how tosolve higher education's problems. Some believethat reorganization does not demand starting overin toto. Most educators seem to agree on at least

December 1994/January 1995 7rRr 4.

On the Horizon

Whilereengineeringmay not be theanswer to highereducation'sproblem, itcertainly is a stepin the rightdirection.

ENVIRON1VIENT

Douglas J. Crawford-Brown

Department ofEnvironmental

Sciences andEngineering

University of NorthCarolina at Chapel

Hill

one changea move toward making informationdata-intensive. Many nay-sayers to reengineeringadvocate less radical approaches, with perhaps theapplication of information technology alone. To-tal Quality Management (TQM) suggests relyingon incremental changes. In a devastating critique,James Porter (1993) finds reengineering in highereducation an impossibility; he believes thatreengineering "should be brougkt in [only be-cause] a need exists for heavy blasting." Selectiveprocesses, however, do not solve higher education'scurrent problems, according to Dibble and Glenn(1994); they do not accept the single answersolution.

Examples of variations of reactions toreengineeringand proposals forsolutions to highereducation's problems abound. The National As-sociation of College and University Business Of-ficers (NACUBO, 1994) cites six excellent casestudies on reengineering: procurement, manag-ing facilities, admitting undergraduate students,creating master course schedules, updating em-ployee personnel records, and disbursing financialaid awards. Also recommended for further exami-nation is a paper by Heterick (1994); CAUSE'slibrary of articles and documents on BusinessProcess Reengineering (BPR), accessible throughlistsery or gopher (info@cause.colorado.edu);Dibble and Glenn's seminar (1994) with its twovery powerful simulations on admissions and trans-fer credit evaluations; and a series of articles writ-ten by Carol Twigg that have been appearing inrecent issues of EDUCOM Review.

Reengineering is more than a fad or the man-agement technique of the month. Educationalorganizations are now competing for financingand legislative attention with prisons and welfareagencies. For cutting costs, and meeting the ac-

countability requirement, an adapted businessprocess of reengineering holds real promise. Al-though the taint of commercialism may offendsome educators, that may be the aspect that en-tices and satisfies legislative and other customers,who are demanding cutting costs, cutting outwaste, freeing up existing resources, enhancingand introducing new academic programs, in orderto improve the product.

Reengineering is complex. It is neither cheapnor quick. It may save no money and still heworthy because it results in better service, qual ,

speed, and customer satisfaction. Whilereengineering may not be the answer to highereducation's problem, it certainly is a step in theright direction.

[Dibble, Tom; Glenn, Robert. (1994, June11). Fundamentals of process reengineering inhigher education. Seminar presented at AmericanAssociation for Higher Education Ninth AnnualConference on Assessment and Quality, Wash-ington DC; Hammer, Michael; Chanpy, James.(1993). Reengineering the corporation: A manifestofor business revolution. New York: Harper Bustness; Porter, James. (1993). Business reengineeringin higher education: Promise and reality. CAUSEProfessional Paper #9. Boulder, Colorado;I -leterick, Robert (Ed.). (1994). Reengineeringteaching and learning in higher education: Shelteredgrove's, Camelot, windmills and malls. Cause: Boul-der, Colorado; NACUBO, Business process rede-sign for Higher Education (Washington, D.C.)1994; Twigg, Carolyn. (1992, July/August). Im-proving productivity in higher education: Theneed for a paradigm shift. EDUCOM Review, 29(4), 22-26: Twigg, Carolyn. (1994, September/October). The need for a national learning infra-structure. EDUCOM Review, 29 (5), 16-22.]

How Do We Know IfEnvironmental Policies AreWorking?

Aiugustine of Hippo cautioned that Heavenis filled with good intentions and de-sires. Throughout the environmental field

there is enough noble sentiment to carry policydecisions well into the future. What is lacking isany systematic evaluation to determine the effi-cacy of the policies. Can we agree on a definitionof environmental quality? Do our policies achieveour goals?

Students of environmental science and envi-ronmental studies must agree first upon a defini-tion of environmental quality. Second, they must

be trained in assessing the quality of the environ-ment and in measuring th-. effectiveness of envi-ronmental policies at improving this quality.Understanding the processes that control the en-vironment must be complemented by active ex-ploration ofchanges in the environment and theircauses. To the degree these causes lie in environ-mental policy decisions, it is essential that thesteps leading from the decision to environmentalchange be mapped out in detail. In most areas ofpublic policy (e.g., education and health), mea-sures of the outcome have been developed andused to assess tht effectiveness of those policies.Similar developments in environmental policyhave been weaker, due in part to disagreementabout what quality means in this context and tothe scientific complexity of envi ronmental discus-

On the Horizon 8

4

December 1994/January 1995

A link in thepath fromenvironmentalassessment topolicy assessmentis missing.

Students mustquestion theresults ofenvironmentalpolicies anddevelop practical,reliable,appropriate tools.

POLITICALLaurence R. Marcus

EducationalAdministration

Rowan College ofNeu, Jersey

sions. Bus,ks such as Portney's (1990) PublicPolicies for Environmental Protection have begunto explore this vital area of policy effectiveness, ifonly in sketch.

Scientists must direct attention not only toanalyzing specific phenomena (such as the trans-port and transformation of pollutants), but todeveloping tools needed to relate environmentalquality and environmental policy. As a first step,measures of environmental quality must be devel-oped and used. The National Acid PrecipitationAssessment Program (NAPAP), one example ofsuch an effort, provides insights into the methodsfor defining and quantifying environmental qual-ity. (A description of the program may be found:n The Experience and Legacy of NA PAP availablethrough the National Technical Information Ser-vice, Springfield, VA, 22161.)

Even in NAPAP, however, a link in the pathfrom environmental assessment to policy assess-ment is missing. Although the program providesinformation needed to judge environmental qual-ity, it is less clear that it can locate the causes ofenvironmental change in specific policy deci-sions. This weakness is more pronounced in thenew United States Environmental ProtectionAgency's Environmental Monitoring and Assess-ment Program (EMAP) intended to characterizethe entire environment (not just with respect toacidification). Massive amounts of data are beingmade available through monitoring programs,many based on NASA satellite images assessablethrough the World Wide Web.

[Note: for more information or available dataand images, and their locations on the WWW,contact Donald Johnson or Martin Ruzek, EarthSystem Science Education Program, UniversitiesSpace Research Association, Washington, DC,20024.]

[References: Portney, P. (1990). Public policiesfor environmental protection. Resources for theFuture: Washington, DC.]

ImplicationsMore interaction is needed between environ-

mental scientists and policy analysts. Scientistsmust educate policy analysts in how the environ-ment may be characterized and how specific hu-man actions affect that environment. Policy ana-lysts must educate environmental scientists as tothe most valued measures of environmental qual-ity and the many forms in which environmentalpolicy decisions have structured human interac-tions with the environment.

Students in both environmental science andenvironmental studies should at some point intheir education trace an environmental policyfrom inception, through implementation, to as-sessment. They should be asked to:

1. Assess the quality of the environment beforethe policy was put into place.

2. Determine the changes in human actionsdictated by that policy.

3. Assess whether or not those changes rookplace and to what degree.

4. Assess the quality of the environment afterthose changes.

5. Judge whether or not the policy has beeneffective.

The possibilities for case studies are numerousand include a focus on land use policy, recyclingand emission of air toxins as quantified in the AirToxins Inventories available through the EPA orstate departments. The actual example used is lessimportant than students questioning the results ofenvironmental policies and developing practical,reliable, and appropriate tools.

US Midterm Elections: AWatershed or SomethingElse?

The Democrats took a beating in the No-vember voting, the worst in a midtermelection during a first term presidency

since 1922. This was also the first time since 1860that a Speaker of the House failed to gain reelec-tion. Now that Republican, will control bothhouses of Congress for the first time in 40 years,as well a' occupy three - fifths of the governorships,there is considerable talk of President Clinton'seviction from the White House after the 1996elections. Those pundits may be correct, given

that the last two Democratic presidents (Johnsonand Carter) were forced to readjust their policiesin the face of less devastating midterm losses thanoccurred this time, but in so doing alienated theactivist Left within the party and failed to retainpower (Broder, 1994). Some observers go Furtherthan simply suggesting a Republican return to theWhite I-louse (which they held for 20 years be-tween 1969 and 1993), warning that the Demo-crats are in danger of playing the role that they didin the !ate 1800s as the "Everyone Else Party," aragtag union of those with little in common exceptnot being Republican, able to win some presiden-tial elections but not able to govern (Von Hoffman,1994).

Predictions such as these are based not only on

December 1994/January 1995 9 On the Horizon27

Voters were wonover by thephilosophicalpositions held bythe Republicansless welfare, lesstaxes, and lessgovernment.

Disenchantment ofvoters with thosein power mayresult, not in theirseesawingbetween theDemocrats andRepublicans, butin their turning inlarger numbers tothird partycandidates.

the election returns, but on the voting trends. Forexample, although higher proportions of menthan women have been voting Republican, thegap was the largest in the last eight Congressionalelections, with 54% of men and 46% of women'voting Republican. Also, although Democratsvoted overwhelmingly for Democrats and Repub-licans for Republicans, those in the middle (agrowing proportion) went heavily (56%) for theRepublicans, the highest since 1980. The whitevote, usually a relatively even split in Congres-sional elections, went 58-42 for the Republicans,whereas African Americans and Hispanics main-tained their tradi-ional patterns, supporting theRepublicans with 12% and 30%, respectively, oftheir votes (Connelly, 1994). Even so, the AfricanAmerican vote can no longer be taken for grantedby the Democrats, as California's Pete Wilson andMichigan's John Engler each garnered 16% of theblack vote in their successful gubernatorial reelec-tion campaigns, and as the relatively unknownBernadette Castro received 20% of the black votein her unsuccessful attempt to unseat New York'sSenator Daniel Patrick Moynihan (Broder, 1994).

It is instructive to examine post-electio.. poll-ing that indicated that voters were won over by thephilosophical positions held by the Republicansless welfare, less taxes, and less government. TheWashington Post, in a survey completed four daysafter the election, was told by half of those inter-viewed that it was a "good thing" that the Repub-licans would control Congress; only one in fivesaid that Republican control would be bad. AnNBCIWall Street Journal survey indicated that55% of those polled wanted Congress, not Presi-dent Clinton, taking the policy lead; only one-third feared that the Republicans would "go toofar" from what voters want. It was clear from all ofthe exit- and post-election polling that voterswanted change, and that they saw the Republicansas better able to provide it (Morin, 1994).

If the projected Republican domination is tolast beyond the near term, it would require theconsolidation of this year's electoral victories intoa long-term ruling coalition through the swiftenactment of changes that restore the confidenceof the voters in their government. According toconservative analyst, Kevin Phillips (1994), how-ever, a golden age of Republicanism is not aforegone conclusion.

[Broder, D. (1994, November 13). Presidentand his party confront a task of historical propor-tions, Washington Post, pp. Al, A8-9; Connelly,M. (1994, November 13). Portrait of the elector-ate: Who voted for whom in the house, New YorkTimes, p. A24; Morin, R. (1994, November 13).

Voters repeat their simple message about govern-ment: Less is better, Washington Post, p. A1,6;Phillips, Kevin. (1994, November 13). Volatilevoters imperil Republicans, Washington Post, pp.C1-2; Von Hoffman, N. (1994, November 13).People's party loses grip on masses, WashingtonPost, pp. C1-2.)

ImplicationsThe domination of American politics by Re-

publicans, swept into power on a philosophy ofgovernment that calls for less regulation, smallerbureaucracy, fewer programs, and reduced spend-ing, along with conservative moral positions, mayhave profound impact on education. Some fore-seeable examples are: reduced federal spendingtaking form through the abandonment of govern-ment subsidized higher education/business part-nerships in the area of applied technology, cut-backs in the Head Start Program (a bigger targetgiven the recent publication of The Bell Curve),and reduction or elimination of the interest sub-sidy in federal student loans. The reduced flow offederal funds to schools and colleges may beaccompanied by fewer strings, providing somecompensation in the form of reduced compliancecosts. Regulatory reduction may also be accom-plished through a less activist affirmative actionand civil rights enforcement effort. We are alsolikely to see action in education on matters ofsymbolic importance to Republicans. One of thefirst items that Newt Gingrich, the new Speaker ofthe House, pledges to advance in fulfillment of theRepublican "Contract with America" is the returnof school prayer.

The promised overhaul of welfare (includingthe distribution of federal funds to the states in theform of block grants), as well as reductions inprograms such as public support of food banks,will affect urban schools. With North Carolina'sJesse Helms as chair of the Senate Foreign Rela-tions Committee, we may see reduced levels offoreign aid (except to countries with obviousstrategic importance to the US), perhaps retard-ing educational development initiatives in af-fected nations.

A final implication: The disenchantment ofvoters with t I Lose in power may result, not in theirseesawing between the Democrats and Republi-cans, but in their turning in larger numbers tothird party candidates. The complexity ofAmerica's problems are now compounded by thesurge toward globalization, making it even moredifficult to predict the establishment of a politicalcenter and stability.

On the Horizon December 1994/January 1995

COMMENTARYDon Barker

School of BusinessAdministration

Gonzaga University

Lewis Perelmanviews technologyas a vast tidalwave that willsmash down theexistingeducationalsystem,completely andutterly obliteratingit.

Parker Rossmanargues that ratherthan disappearing,colleges will bandtogether to form"global electronicuniversities,"offering coursesand completedegrees tostudents through-out the world.

Ian JukesThe FutureView

Group

Two FuturesTelecommunications, multimedia, elec-tronic publishing, intelligent software,video-conferencing, voice recognition,

and virtual reality will eventually make the bulk ofhuman knowledge easily accessible to anyone,anytime, and anywhere. The exact shape theseturbulent forces will carve out of the existingeducational landscape is far less obvious.

Two observers of the changing education sce-nario for the 21st century are Lewis J. Perelman(1992) and Parker Rossman (1992). Perelmanmaintains that current educational organizationsare not effective and will not evolve into anappropriate learning system for the 21st Century.He views technology as a vast tidal wave that willsmash down the existing educational system, com-pletely and utterly obliterating it. In the wake ofthis mass destruction, Perelman anticipates therise of a more cost-effective, focused, skill-ori-ented, and electronic-based learningenvironment,an environment where certification tests replacecredentials (i.e., degrees) an environment whereautonomous learning supersedes classroom lec-tures.

Rossman, on the other hand, envisions a muchmore benevolent future for education. Rossmanbelieves that traditional degree programs will notonly survive but will thrive in the age of digitalcommunications and information. He argues thatrather than disappearing, colleges will band to-gether to form "global electronic universities,"offering courses and complete degrees to studentsthroughout the world.

Why do the same basic technological trendsproduce such divergent pictures of education'sfuture? The answer may lie in the differencebetween the medium and the message. Perelmanunquestionably views technology as a revolution-ary force destined to transform not only the waywe teach (the medium) but also the very substanceof what we teach (the message).

Rossman has a more restricted view of theimpact of new technologies on education. He seestechnology as a more evolutionary than revolu-

tionary force. Both authors believe that the educa-tional delivery system (the medium) will be radi-cally altered. Both authors agree that advances intechnology such as virtual classrooms and virtuallibraries will soon enhance all learning.

Perelman and Rossman disagree on the mes-sage (i.e., traditional subjects and degree pro-grams). Perelman's dire predictions of the end oftraditional education stem from his belief that theemerging worldwide knowledge-based economywill demand professionals with specific skills thatare best acquired by an "on the job" approach.Rossman, on the other hand, foresees the informa-tion age as an opportunity for traditional schoolsto evolve. Schools that choose not to embrace thechanges may disappear, but those that activelyembrace the advances will no doubt flourish. Theincredible growth in K-12 and college sponsoredhi-tech distance education programs attests to anevolution of the medium. In addition, thegrow-ing emphasis on applied skills and internshipssignify the attempt to "tune" the message to thechanging market place.

New players will present themselves in theeducational arena (e.g., a Virtual On-line Univer-sity); many schools will evolve and nimbly adaptto the new environment. Teachers will also evolvefrom lecturers (or "dispensers of knowledge") toguides, facilitators, advisors, and fellow learnersand travelers within the endless expanses ofcyberspace. There will be casualties, but there willbe tremendous success stories too.

Tomorrow's learner may well attend class elec-tronically and expect a more applied agenda.Chances are good that a majority of today's schoolswill be there to provide the guidance and helpnecessary to master this brave new virtual world.

[Pereleman, Lewis. (1992). School's out: A radi-cal new formula for the revitalization of America'seducational system. New York: Avon Books;Rossman, Parker. (1992) . The emerging worldwideEeectronic university: Information age global highereducation. Westport, Connecticut: GreenwoodPress.]

Making Technology WorkAs a roving educational technologist, I'veglimpsed the good, the bad, and the uglyof educational technology. What never

ceases to amaze me is how powerfully and posi-tively children respond in technologically-enriched

learning environments. However, I must admitthat it's with a dual sense of' marvel and dismaythat I sec them eagerly embrace, integrate andapply complex technologies.

Just as I transfer my thoughts to paper, onlyoccasionally considering my arm, hand, or the pen

If, these young folk create with electrons

December 1994/January 1995 On the Horizon

There is one thingworse than notbeing able to see;being able to seeand having novision.

Helen Keller

Our future dependson how quicklyand effectively wemove to makeschools andcommunities morerelevant to theworld of tomorrow.

effortlessly weaving words, images, video, sound,and telecommunications technology together intobreathtakingly creative and interactive multime-dia presentations, only rarely considering the key-board, mouse, computer, or program itself. Tech-nology has become as natural a part of thisgeneration's life as breathing.

Unfortunately, however, the technology revo-lution seems to have passed by many of those inour educational communities. The educationalroadway is littered with conceptual potholes andthe mangled psyches of white knuckle techno-phobic educators who seem functionally inca-pable of properly resetting the stations on their carradios; programming a VCR so that it stopsflashing "12:00 AM;" properly using ATM cards;or correctly operating a microwave, cellular tele-phone, fax, or digital coffee maker. How, then,will they ever be able to differentiate between amouse, hard drive, RAM, ROM, or multimediacomputer, or discern how any of these itemsmight possibly fit into a classroom, office, orhome?

What can we do?What follows are a number of practical no-

cost/low-cost ideas for developing or implement-ing a community plan for the integrated use oftechnology within a broader community restruc-turing plan.

Taking a we rather than a me approach tochange, work together to develop a shared visionthat starts with the building of a bread-basedcommunity ownership that is composed, notimposed. Success stems from including all stake.holders who might be affected, giving them ampleopportunity to be actively involved in the creationof the vision. A broad-based initiative must in-clude teachers and administrators, students, par-ents, small and large businesses, senior citizens

anyone and everyone who could and will beaffected.

Begin by developing an integrated curriculumthat includes a clearly defined multi-grade, cross-curricular scope and sequence that focuses onactive, cooperative, interdisciplinary, and indi-vidualized learning. Esablish a clear connectionbetween what students learn and why they willlearn it. Disciplines that develop subject out-comes in isolation unrealistically expect otherstakeholders to be willing to graft these outcomesto suit their various needs. Instead, the processmust be designed as a cooperative and compre-hensive undertaking that satisfies the goals ofeveryone in the communitynot just the educa-tors and pdministrators.

Start bycreating a broad-based plan that clearlyidentifies what students should be able to do usingvarious technologies and then link these outcomesto identified skills, knowledges, attributes andbehaviors.

Technology is not a one-time costTwenty-first Century infrastructures must

embrace computers, data communications, andother media yet to be developed. This will requirean educated population that can navigate thecurrent and emergent informational infrastruc-tures in the same way that workers could navigatethe transportation infrastructures of the Indus-trial Age.

When asked what it was like to be blind, thegreat American writer, teacher, and human being,Helen Keller, responded that there was one thingworse than not being able to see, and that wasbeing able to see and having no vision. Vision isstill the keyword for the future. Your job, my job;your pension, my pension; our future depends onhow quickly and effectively we move to makeschocls and communities more relevant to theworld of tomorrow.

Theodore Leverenz The Student As InvestorInstitutional Research

Georgetown CollegeHigher education has accepted change asnecessary for survival in the next cen-tury. As traditional perceptions ofhigher

education have had to change, so too must tradi-tional perceptions of students change.

For example, the medical model views stu-dents as coming to higher education with aca-demic weaknesses that must be treated. Aftermaking a thoughtful diagnosis, institutions pre-scribe a schedule of treatment (i.e., coursework) toremediate the scholastic illness. The medical model,however, is based on a negative (if not dubious)premise that mom, if not all, students arrive withsomething wrong with them, a perspective that isinherently skeptical of students' likely success.

Those holding to a gas station model viewstudents as one-stop purchasers of education.Students drive in, passively fill up with knowl-edge, and drive away. But this model holds thatstudents will eventually "run out ofgas"that thelong-term value of their educational experiences isseverely limited.

The product model takes a manufacturingperspective. Students, the raw materials, are takenin, put through a process that molds them as theinstitution believes is appropriate, and suppliesthem to business and industry through the mar-keting efforts of campus career placement centers.This model allows only limited attention to thefeelings, goals, aspirations, and ambitions of stu-dents.

On the Horizon 12 December 1994/January 1995

3 0

As traditionalperceptions ofhigher educationhave had tochange, so toomust traditionalperceptions ofstudents change.

Successfulstudents, like theinvestors they are,develop a clearsense of purposebehind theirlearningdecisionsandacceptresponsibility forthose choices.

In the customer or retail model, colleges anduniversities, like auto dealerships, offer a varietyof models (degree programs) with standard fea-tures. As with automobile sales, each program isenhanced with options (electives) ranging frominternational exchange opportunities to field workto extra-curricular activities. The difficulties withthe product model, similar to the gas stationmodel, are that it is more competitive than coop-erative, focuses on convincing the customer tobuy from what is available, even if it isn't what thecustomer really needs or wants, and puts a priorityon the quick sale rather than return business (i.e.,matriculation rather than graduation). Very littleattention is given to after-sale service or follow-up.

These models share two additional disadvan-tages. By definition, students are essentially pas-sive elementscompliant, submissive, acquies-cent. And students must go to where the educa-tion takes place.

In the future, truly successful institutions willreconfigure themselves based on a view of stu-dents as investors. Investors make commitmentsfor specific periods of time and do so with goalsother than simply making money. The purpose ofmaking an investment is to acquire sufficientresources to spend on other things, which in factare the real goals (e.g., a house, vacation, retire-ment). Investors are willing to do without the useof their money for those investment periods. Thelevel of trust between investor and broker isdirectly related to the long-term value of invest-ment activities.

Investing has a developmental quality. As therelationship between broker and investor grows,each more fully appreciates the value and appro-priateness of the advice being offered. And eachacquires a clearer picture of what is involved inmaking the investment work. Investors soon be-gin to develop the ability to recognize opportuni-ties on their own, to clarify their own investment

goals, to exercise better judgment, to make moreinformed investment decisions, and to take re-sponsibility for their investment choices. Brokerslikewise gain insight into investors' motivations,their abilities to invest, their interests, and theirultimate goals.

Like investors, students make commitmentsfor specific periods of time. Students do without,they pay tuition rather than take vacations, andthey pass up job opportunities. Successful stu-dents, like the investors they are, develop a clearsense of purpose behind their learningdecisionsand accept responsibility for those choices.

In higher education, there ideally exists a mu-tually committed relationship between teacherand student that is based on trust (i.e., that stu-dents will work to learn; that teachers will offersomething worth learning). Learning is a coopera-tive effort that is enhanced, improved, and mademore productive the longer the student/teacherrelationship continues, not unlike investor/brokerrelationships.

Just as the wise investor continues to invest, thewise student continues to learn. And yet neitheris likely to continue the activity in absence of areturn, especially if losses outweigh gains. Life-long learners acquire an ability to assess theireducational needs and potential educational op-portunities in much the same way that seasonedinvestors develop a sense of how to evaluate theirinvestment needs and opportunities. Thus, thequality of the educational experience can be judgedlargely, if not exclusively, on the return to thestudent.

In truth, higher education probably will needto include elements ofeach perspective; it's fair tosay that no single model will be as effective as usingthe best aspects of all of them. Yet, the investmentmodel is a more cooperative and positive model,most likely to yield the greatest benefits.

Professional Development Opportunities

Beyond 2000: Visioning the Future of Community Colleges, February26-28, 1995, at the Sheraton World Resort, Orlando, Florida.

Meeting the Challenges of Global Change: Planning for the Future ofEducation, at Saint Andrews University, Scotland, July 28-31, 1995.

For more information, please contact the On the Horizon office (919-962- 2517).

December 1994/January 1995 13 On the Horizon

3I.

IN THE NET Bumps on the Road to theGlobal Village: Lessons fromthe Jericho Project

he dream of a Global Village, where ev-eryone is connected electronically to in-formation, software, and to each other, is

becoming more viable every day. In the last issueof On the Horizon, I described one such villagethe Jericho Project in the Anderson County (TN)Public Schools where the community and theschools are wired in a Wide Area Network (WAN)via local cable TV and broadband cards. From ourexperience in designing and implementing thisproject, we encountered a number of problemsthat will likely impede the construction of a trueGlobal Village.

When we first began our project, we onlyenvisioned two major problems: (a) finding thetechnology to allow us to transmit over TV cables,and (b) finding a means of funding a projectconnecting 18,000 homes and businesses in thecommunity so that !y could use the software onservers in the public schools. The first issue wasmuch easier to solve than we expected. Using highspeed data transmission and high capacity storagefacilities for information and programs is becom-ing almost a ho-hum affair with the advent ofATM technology used in banking. Even tele-phone circuits are increasing to speeds adequate tohandle multi-user traffic, and TV cable is capableof handling traffic at speeds up to four times fasterthan phone lines. With the impending passage ofthe new data communications bill in the nextCongress, the possibilities are exponential, as phonecarriers begin competing with cable companies.

The second issue was solved by a $100,000grant from the Tennessee Department of Educa-tion that enabled us to fund our project more-over, we received a limited amount of fiber opticcable from the TV cable company.

In addressing the funding issue, it becameobvious that adequate funding hinged on profit-ability for the cable company and for softwareproducers. This problem was connected to theissue of the legality of many users accessing thesame software over a Wide Area Network.

Although the Software Publishers Association,IBM, WordPerfect. Lotus, and several other soft-ware houses have declared that today's softwarelicensing agreements do not include WAN usage,most WAN developers, including at least onegovernment agency, choose to simply ignore theproblem by allowing unmonitored access to corn-mercial software through dial-up modems.

i This should not be a problem. For example, if1 a small community purchased a fifty-user net-

work license of WordPerfect and allowed all po-

Perry BrownAnderson County ,

Tennessee, Schools

In addressing thefunding issue, itbecame obviousthat adequatefunding hinged onprofitability forthe cablecompany and forsoftwareproducers.

Softwarepublishers thatprovided the bestsoftware, the bestadvertising, andthe best trainingwould prosperwith the "pay-per-view" strategy.

tential users in the community access to it,chances are that not more than fifty people wouldneed access to the WAN at the same time; if theydid, more licenses could be purchased. But thispractice would eliminate large numbers of peoplefrom WordPerfect's customer sales base; no onewould purchase software individually. I f this hap-pens in every community around the world, therecould be four possible outcomes:

1. Software companies might cease to exist.2. The price of software might rise beyond the

ability of individual end-users to purchase it.3. National governments might intervene, since

WANs transform private use to a public good (likepublic roads and parks).

4. A new marketing strategy would need to bedeveloped by software companies.

However, a "win-win" approach that will ben-efit both the community and software and cablebusinesses is a "pay- per -view" strategy. With thisstrategy, the "latest, greatest" products would besupplied by software houses to WAN providers,who would manage the software and bill eachcustomer for use, passing revenues back to thesoftware houses. End-users would benefit fromthis because they would have access to many,previously too expensive, software packages, atcompetitive hourly usage fees.

In the Jericho Project, we intend that vendorsprovide training for their products via the localTV cable company. Because vendors would vie forcustomer usage, they would have to provide out-standing training at no direct cost to the con-sumer. With each new update of a product, end-users would have instant access and training at noadditional cost.

Software publishers that provided the bestsoftware, the best advertising, and the best train-ing would prosper with the "pay-per-view" strat-egy. Even though the hourly end-user cost wouldbe very low, the base of people using the productwould be much larger, thus creating profitability.More sr;ecialty software would be developed dueto the increased user base. Software publisherswould have to be customer responsive to survivein this truly capitalistic system.

A key factor in this solution is profit for WANproviders (phone and cable companies) and soft-ware publishers: The WAN provider receives apercentage for management and collection forsoftware usage, thereby being more willing toinvest in connecting houses, businesses, and theschools; software publishers receive income de-pending upon the amount of usage of their prod-uct in the community; parents, students, andcitizens receive low-cost access to the latest soft-ware based upon their needs.

Though this solution would be a win-win onefor all involved, the idea is far from becoming

On the Horizon 14 December 1994/January 1995

TOOLSrTna==man

Prag-matix:InformationDesign

For those who justneed a great wordprocessor and notan entireprogrammingenvironment, it isa heck of a goodinvestment. If youcan find Word 5.1at a reduced price,go for it.

Excel continues todevelop into anastonishinglyversatile tool for adesktop analyst/planner, or anumber-crunchingsenior executive.

reality. Software publishers and WAN providersagree that a system wide change in marketingmust occur, but most are afraid to make a changewithout unanimous acceptance. To date, onlyIBM EduQuest (the educational arm ofIBM) hasbeen willing to actively explore the concept.

Until others join the struggle, the road to the

global village will continue to be unpaved.(Editor's note: If you have any suggestions or

comments concerning this issue, please contactPerry Brown, Director of Technology, AndersonCo. (TN) Schools at (615) 463-7435 orp_brown@sacam.oren.ortn.edu.)

Microsoft Office: The Rest ofthe Story

1n the October/November '94 issue, I re-viewed Microsoft Word, the word-processorcomponent of Microsoft Office, a suite of

computer programs that run under Windows 3.1and on the Macintosh. I had been happy with theWindows version; when the Mac version wasreleased, I gave it a quick test and published thereview. My only complaint was that Word ran abit slow on my Mac Ilci. I can now quantify that.Creating a mail-merge document takes ten timeslonger for each step on the Macintosh than it doeson a 486 under Windows. The performance is sopoor that there is simply no justification forMacintosh users moving up from Word 5.1.

The highly touted platform-independence oftoday's programming languages is resulting incode-heavy, feature-overloaded applications thatdo fine in the environment that Microsoft knowsbestWindows and DOS, but are completelydysfunctional on the Macintoshes still in use byowners of most Macs. Is it possible that Wordactually performs acceptably on a Power Mac?Perhaps. Is it warning-labeled for the non-Power Mac user? Nope.

The previous version of Word has most of thecapabilities of Word 6.0; it is faster by an order ofmagnitude; and for those who just need a greatword processor and not an entire programmingenvironment, it is a heck of a good investment. Ifyou can find Word 5.1 at a reduced price, go forit.

The remainder of Office includes PowerPoint,a presentation creator; Excel, a spreadsheet; andAccess, Microsoft's own database.

PowerPoint's great strength lies in its tem-plates and Wizards. Templates are predesignedlayouts into which you need only place the wordsand art of your choice. Wizards are semi-smartprograms that assist you interactively in makingdesign decisions. Both are useful because theysave time and help you improve your slide showin ways you might not have envisioned.

Few of us give slide shows without graphs andtables; PowerPoint is fine at assisting in the prepa-ration of each. There is considerable breadth, ifnot depth, in the range of each. For even greater

versatility, you can embed a slide with a graph ortable from an Excel spreadsheet. This means youcan bring to a PowerPoint presentation the abilityto update figures rapidly, with all the complexequations you need. Thus, although PowerPointis not able, on its own, to calculate standarddeviations or perform regressions and cross-tabs,an embedded table from Excel can.

Ifyou change your mind at the last minute, anddecide to do overheads rather than slides,PowerPoint can assist you with reformatting tothe different aspect ratio. PowerPoint includes avariety of transitional effects for use with an LCDdevice for overheads, or a video projector, orpresentations made directly on a monitor, andeven helps you program them in. You can alsoincorporate animation and video, but these func-tions are more complicated; they may be a job forsomeone in your AV services department.

As for speed, the differences between the Macand Windows is in no way as bad as in Word. Thesame goes for Excel, discussed below.

Excel continues to develop into an astonish-ingly versatile tool for a desktop analyst/planner,or a number-crunching senior ex.wutive. By open-ing several spreadsheets, making each of them adatabase, and linking them all with macros, theresult of a query in one could be factored into aquery in another. In addition to the increasingfriendliness of the interface, there is an amazingnumber and breadth of functions that can now beperformed in this remarkable program. It even hasthe ability to link into the very databases that youare currently manipulating with SAS. (Ifyou havewrestled with the hugeness of SAS for Windows inorder to do simple regressions or chi-squares, stopwasting the disk space and RAM.) Just the fact thatfield names don't have the SAS eight-characterlimit is a blessing in itself. But more useful is the"tablecloth" effect of working in Excel. You can:enter a set of figures over here; perform variousfunctions on them over there; open a separate viewof the results in a window all its own; create agraphic representation linked to those results inyet another area; and jot down some notes abouta particular table, complete with circles and ar-rows.

Some of the Excel features I use most:1. Auto Fill: Enter January into one cell, Febru-

December 1994/January 1995 15

33On the Horizon

The latestMicrosoft Office isa suite ofexcellentproducts forWindows,available as agroup for way lessthan the sum ofthe parts. Abargain. On theMacan utter` 4aste of money.

ary into the next cell, select both, then drag thelittle handle in the corner across a range of cells.Watch March, April, etc., fill in automatically.Enter 1994, then 1995, and drag the handle, andyou get 1996.

2. Auto Forman. Select a range of cells, use theAuto Format command, and select a style; you canchoose row and column labels set in bold italics,add a line above totals, alternate colors, values,etc., from the sober to the ridiculous.

3. Format Painter. You work hard to put yourtable into a particular format, then you createanother table. You want it to have the sameformat. Choose the paintbrush from the toolbar,click on the table you want to mimic; apply thesame format to your new table just by "brushing"it with your mcuse

4. Help: For Excel's i you'll use a few megsof hard drive, but it's fast. In 5.0, it's sensitive tothe problem you are confronting at the moment,known among jargonizers as being "context-sen-sitive."

5. In-cell editing. When you click on a cell tochange a number, you can actually see your cursorin the cell, select a range of characters, delete,backspace, use arrow keys, all without having tolook up at the formula-entry area.

6. Column Auto Fit. A column full of numberscan be a few hundred rows deep. Click at the topofa column to select the column, use the Auto Fitoption, and you can be certain that the column isnow as wide as its widest entry. Unfortunately thecolumn does not automatically adjust in width as

On the Horizon410, V:,

University of North Carolina..47Z0 School of Education

CB# 3500 Peabody HallChapel Hill, NC 27599-3500

you add longer numbers or names to subsequentcells.

There are a lot more features, but suffice it tosay that everything is a little bit easier to use inExcel 5.0.

Access is an extremely powerful database in theWindows version of Office. Access has a form ofon-screen help that Microsoft calls "cue-cards."They appear as slender sets of instructions thatkeep track of what you are doing and ask you whatyou want to do next. It says, "OK, what do youwant to do now? Create a form that presents thedata for a record in a particular database? Designa report to show all the records that are the resultofa query?" You click buttons on the cue-card andit takes you to the next set of instructions, whichyou can carry out while the cue-cards watch.Regretfully, only Access has this feature; it wouldbe great if all programs had cue-cards. An audioversion would also be a welcome addition to thenext edition of Microsoft Office.

I will leave further review of Access to thespecialist computer publications. You won't bebuyingOffice in order to have it, and you shouldn'tfeel pressured to use Access just because it comeswith Office. But don't forget it's there. It's a heckof a way to learn database development. But note:There is no version for the Mac.

The latest Microsoft Office is a suite of excel-lent products for Windows, available as a groupfor way less than the sum of the parts. A bargain.On the Macan utter waste of money.

Non-Profit OrganizationU.S. Postage

PAIDPermit No. 177

Chapel Hill, N.C. 27599-1110

On the Horizon 16 December 1994/January 1995

34

Envisioning (and Inventing) the FutureIan Wilson

Wolf Enterprises

Scenario planningis key tosuccessfulstrategicmanagement inthese uncertaintimes, and key toenvisioning andcreating a "newfuture" foreducationalorganizations.

IN THIS ISSUE:

1n an earlier article for On the Horizon (Wil-son,1994), I argued that educational institu-tions, like corporations, need to engage in

strategic management as they struggle to redefinethemselves in new roles and changing conditions.To assist them in this change process, I alsosuggested that schools, colleges, and universitiescan benefit from two planning tools developed inthe corporate sector: strategic vision and scenarioplanning. In this article I want to explore morefully the second of these planning toolsscenarioplanningbecause it is, I firmly believe, key tosuccessful strategic management in these uncer-tain times, and key to envisioning and creating a"new future" for educational organizations.g

Let me, then, briefly address four questions:What are scenarios? Why are they needed? Howdo we develop them? How can we use them?

What Are Scenarios?The term "scenario" is taken from the world of

theater and film, and refers to a brief synopsis ofthe plot of a play or movie. In a planning context,scenarios can be described most simply, in collo-quial terms, as "stories of possible futures that theorganization might encounter." Scenarios aregraphic and dynamic, revealing the flow of anevolving future. They are holistic, combiningsocial, technological, economic, environmental,

and political trends and events, the qualitative aswell as the quantitative. They focus our attentionon the "branching points" of the future, the poten-tial contingencies and discontinuities.

By basing decisions on alternative futures andby testing planned actions against the differentconditions these scenarios present, we are betterable to prepare for uncertainty, and to ensure thatour decisions are as resilientand flexible as possibleto deal with contingencies that we might deem"unthinkable."

Why Are Scenarios Needed?

We have all been educated to believe that if weare to make decisions about the future of anorganization, we must first know what the futurethe organization will have to deal with will be like.

On the face if it, that is a reasonable proposi-tion. Yet in reality we are asking for the impos-siblecertainty ani predictability in an uncertainworld. The fureler out the horizon of forecasting,the more unreasonable is that demand. But evenfor the shorter term, the expectation of precisionis a snare and r. delusion.

In a profound sense, the future is unknowable.Yet, in a relative sense some things are predictable.We can do a respectable job of "sensing" the basicdynamics of the future and the alternative coursesthey might take. Building on this foundation,

Envisioning (and Inv.enting) the Future,Ian: Wilson

From the Editor - Bionomics...A New Way of.Thinking About! Organizations, James. L.

Morrison

Trends and EventsSocial - Lois GraffTechnological - Andy CarvinEconomic - A. G. KefalasEnvironmental - Douglas Crawford-BrownPolitical Laurence Marcus

Commentaryf Thinking AbOut Educational Reform,

George Keller

3In the .'Net

The World Wide Web: The Killer Application forEducation? AndyCarvin 13

12

6 Book ReviewThe Universal Schoolhouse, Robert Bunge 14

g Tools10 ClarisWorks 3.0 for Windows and Macintosh,

Bernard Glassman 15

Licensed for internal duplication to:

33 BEST COPY AVAILABLE

The processstarts, not byplunging into adescription of thefuture, but ratherby clarifying the

,ategicdecisions that weare faced with.

EnvironmentalForces

scenarios steer us on a middle course between amisguided reliance on prediction and a despairingbelief that we can do nothing to envision thefuture.

How Do We Develop Scenarios?One way to develop scenarios is to turn the job

over to a brilliant futurist or an imaginative plan-ner to sketch out alternative possible futures thatour planning should consider. (Jay Ogilvy didexactly that for us in two earlier issues of On theHorizon (1994, April /May; 1994, June/July].)The fundamental problem with this approach,however appealing it might be, is that the decision- makers those who will ultimately use the

scenariosdo not "own" them: the scenariosremain forever the product of someone else's

thinking, and so lack the credibility nec-essary for them to become the basis for

action.To deal with this problem, wedeveloped, while I was at SRI

International, an approachthat (a) is a structured

blending of rationalityand intuition, and (b)

relies on decision -makers them-selves to develop

their own sce-narios. In this way

we found, in a wide va-riety of organizations,

profit and non-profit alike,that we could build into the pro-

cess the highest degree of under-standing and commitment to use the

scenarios.The approach utilizes a relatively simple

six-step process (see schematic):Step 1: Organizational Decision(s). The pro-

cess starts, not by plunging into a description ofthe future, but rather by clarifying the strategicdecisions that we are faced with, and that thescenarios should help us address. The decision can

be as broad as the strategic future of the organiza-tion (e.g., "What vision of our future school/university should we pursue?") or as specific as thedevelopment of a new program (e.g., "Should weuse electronic communications networks to pro-mote individualized, off -campus/at-home educa-tional programs?"). Clarifying the "decision fo-cus" of the whole process is doubly important. Inthe first place, it reminds us that scenarios are notan end in themselves: they are a means to help us

OrganizationalDecisions

'orKey Decision

Factors

ScenarioLogics

Scenarios

Scenarios are notan end inthemselves: theyare a means tohelp us makebetter strategicdecisions.

DecisionImplications

make better strategic decisions. Secondly, theyMUSE be grounded in our specific planning needs.A tight focus will prevent the scenarios fromdrifting into broad generalizations about the fu-ture of our society, thereby losing their implica-tions for our particular organization.

Step 2: Key Decision Factors. Having thoughtthrough the strategic decision we want to make,we need then to examine the key decision fac-torsthe main things we would like to knowabout the future in order to make our decision.Granted that we cannot actually know the future,it would still be helpful if we had some "fix" on,say, potential student population, availability offunding, or the state of information technology inthe year 2000 (or whenever our planning horizonis). Once again, clarifying in our minds what theessential decision factors are helps us focus thework-process on what is important for our plan-ning purposes.

Step 3: Environmental Forces. Next, identifyand assess key forces that will shape the future ofthese "key decision factors." You can think ofthese forces as falling into one of two categoriesnarrow-based trends that impact most directlyand specifically on education, such as changingwork force skill requirements, government's rolein education, and "privatization" of schools; andbroad-based trends, such as shifting demographicpatterns, economic growth and income distribu-tion, and the diffusion of information technology.The better we understand the multiplicity, inter-action, and uncertainties of these forces, the morerealistic our planning is likely to be and the betterable we can be to prepare ourselves for suddenshifts in trends and the onset of what wouldotherwise be surprises.

Next, sort out these trends, ranking each interms of its strength of impact on education andits degree of uncertainty (a simple "High-Me-dium-Low" scoring system will suffice). As aresult of this sorting out, we can focus our atten-tion on:

"High impact/low uncertainty" forcestheseare (we think!) the relative certainties in our Futurefor which our planning must prepare.

"High impact/high uncertainty" forcestheseare the potential shapers of different futures (sce-narios) for which our planning should prepare.

Step 4: Scenario Logics. This step is the heartof the process and establishes the basic structure ofthe scenarios. If we examine the "high impact/high uncertainty" forces, we will likely find thatmost of them can be grouped among two or three

Continued on page 5

On the Horizon 2 February/March 1995

FROM THE

EDITORJames L. Morrison

Program inEducationalLeadership

The University ofNorth Carolina at

Chapel Hill

Bionomics: A New Way ofThinking About Organizations

ichael Rothschild (1994) has devel-oped a new management philosophyfor the corporate world, bionomics,

that combines economics with biology to pushbusiness leaders to examine what they do and howthey do it, then improve upon it. Rothschildviews the business world as an evolving ecosys-tem. Organizations must adapt or perish. Thoseorganizations first adapting successfully will pros-per the most. To maximize flexibility, corpora-tions must decentralize; empower managers, su-pervisors, and workers; cross-train them; and

incorporate computer networking technologiesthroughout the organization.

Rothschild argues that conventional economicthinking is based on the premise that future eventscan be measured with relative precision. However,econometric forecasting on the basis of historicaldata cannot take into account new developments.For example, in the past, economists could roughlypredict how much air travel would increase if theeconomy grew a certain amount. Today, theseforecasts have been compromised by the fax ma-chine, computer networking, and video-telecon-ferencing via desktop computers. If corporatemanagers can use a desktop computer to see andinteract with their colleagues around the country

EDITORIAL

BOARD

James L. MorriThe University of North

Bernard Glassman, Associate EditorPragmatix:Information Design

Blanche Fried Arons, Associate EditorLanguage Associates

Wallace Hannum, Associate EditorUniversity of North CarolinaChapel Hill

Peter BishopUniversity of Houston at Clear Lake

David BrockUniversity of Auckland

Arnold BrownWeiner, Edrich & Brown, Inc.

Douglas Crawford-BrownUniversity of North CarolinaChapel Hill

Dale F. CampbellUniversity of Florida

Andy Car/inThe Corporation for Public Broadcasting

Gordon CaweltiAlliance for Curricular Reform

James DatorUniversity of Hawaii

Gregg EdwardsAcademy for Advanced and Strategic Studies

Jonathan FifeERIC Clearinghouse on Higher Education

Lois GraffThe George Washington University

Warren GroffNova University

E. Raymond HackettAuburn University

Richard B. HeydingerAlliance for Higher Education Strategies

Jeffery HolmesCanadian Bureau for Intl Education

son, EditorCarolina at Chapel HillBruce Anthony Jones

University of Pittsburg

Ian JukesThe FutureView Group

Asterios G. KefalasUniversity of Georgia

Larry MarcusRowan College

Michael MarienFuture Survey

Graham T.T. MolitorPublic Policy Forecasting, Inc.

James OgilvyGlobal Business Network

Susan OtterbourgDelman Educational Communications

Tracy LaQuey ParkerCisco Systems, Inc.

Marvin W. PetersonUniversity of Michigan

James G. PtaszyskiWake Forest University

Lewis A. RhodesAmerican Association of School Administrators

Arthur B. ShostakDrexel University

David Pearce SnyderSnyder Family Enterprises

Gerald UnitsHigh SchoolJournal

Frans A. ran VughtUniversity of Twence, the Netherlands

George WilkinsonThe Wilkinson Group

Ian H. WilsonWolf Enterprises

On the Horizon focuses on potential developments and critical trends affecting education. It is published in October/November, December/January,

February/March, April/May, and June /July by the Institute for Academic and Professional Leadership, School of Education, The University of North

Carolina at Chapel Hill. ISSN 1074.8121. Annual cost: individual, 524.50; organizational, $49.50; site license, S124.50. For more information, contact

Professor James L Morrison, Editor, On the Horizon, or Assistants to the Editor, Jonathan Barker, Adam Bianchi, K.C. Brown, Sharon Moore, Robbi

Pickaal, or Clari Terrill, CBS 3500 Peabody Hall, Un iversi tyof North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599. (919)962-2517. Internet: Morrison@uncedu.

The Institute for Academic and Professional Leadership serves educational leaders by providing professional development workshops and seminars.

For more information about the Institute, its Facilities, and its services, contact William S. Pate, Program Director, The Friday Center, CB t 1020, UNC-

Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599. (919) 962-3276. Internet: iapl@unc.edu.

February/March 19953 3 7 BEST COPY AVAILABLE

On the Horizon

We need toincorporateplanningmethodologiesthat help usaddress anuncertain future.

or around the world, how many business trips willbe canceled, regardless of the health of theeconomy? Because the future is unknowable, thebut that organizations can do is maximize flex-ibility and aggressively pursue opportunities asthey come on the horizon.

Although written for business leaders,Rothschild's thesis is applicable to educationalleaders. The world is changing rapidly. We needas much lead time as possible to adapt to thechallenges of these changes in order to provideeffective educational programs. To do this, weneed to not only continue decentralizing educa-tional organizations (e.g., in public schools, mag-net schools, site-based management) and incor-porating computers and telecommunications tech-nology (e.g., e-mail, distance learning), but we

need also to incorporate planning methodologiesthat help us address an uncertain future.

Ian Wilson describes one such method, sce-narios, in our lead article. Coincidentally, Ian andI are leading a seminar July 1995 at Saint AndrewsUniversity, Scotland, hat focuses on the implica-tions of global change, and how to use scenarios toaddress these implications. The seminar focus andagenda are described in the insert below. Partici-pants will receive a handbook and a copy of theproceedings. For registration information, pleasecontact our office or complete the registrationform online in our WWW site at the followingURL address: http://sunsite.unc.edu/horizon.

[Rothschild, M. (1994). Bionomics: Economyas ecosystem. New York: Henry Holt.]

THE FIFTH GLOBAL CHANGE STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT SEMINAR

FOR EDUCATIONAL LEADERS

Sponsored by On the HorizonUniversity of Saint Andrews, Scotland, 27-31 July 1995New Hall,

This seminar is a response tothe on-going world wide redefi-nition of the roles and responsi-bilities for education in an infor-mation age. The economic con-text and the allocation of re-sources will surely change. Tech-nological developments in tele-communications and comput-ers will transform the way welive and workand educatein the 21st Century. Exactly whatthese differences will be and howthey will evolve is anybody'sguess. One thing is certain: theonly way any educational orga-nization will come out a winneris if it is prepared (for changes inits clientele and market), imagi-native (in its repositioning strat-egy), and proactive (in its execu-tion).

The purpose of this seminaris to provide educational leaderswith the tools they need to re-spond to these challenges:

Strategic managementtoensure constant, continuous ad-aptation to changing markets

Scenario planningto helpdevelop strategies for an uncer-tain future

Strategic visionto give asense of purpose, direction, and

motivation to the organizationScanning and monitor-

ingto provide the constantflow of intelligence needed forstrategic management.

Seminar effectiveness relieson an appropriate mix offormal presentations,small group exercises,and professional ex-changes among theparticipants. All par-ticipants will receive ahandbook describingand illustrating strate-gic management, sce-nario planning, stra-tegic vision, and scan-ning/monitoring. Inaddition, theywill re-ceive a copy of eachbriefing paper pre-sented by partici-pants (See Call forBriefingPapers, p.16). Finally, seminarparticipants will bemailed a copy of theproceedings and theinformational find-ings resulting fromthe seminar exer-cises.

Abbreviated Seminar Agenda Topics

Thursday, 27 July 1995Afternoon registration,dinner, reception

Friday, 28 July

The future societal contextfor education: Strategic forcesfor change

The nature and purpose ofstrategic management:lessons from corporateexperience

Adapting the corporatemodel to the world ofeducation

Scenario planning. Dealingwith an uncertain future

Uncertainties in education'sfuture

Developing scenarios: Reviewof the methodology

Panel discussion on chal-lenges of global change(summary/discussion ofprepared briefing papers)

Saturday, 29 JulyDeveloping scenarios ofeducation's future (possiblyusing Saint Andrews as anillustration):

Building the scenarios'structure

Fleshing out the scenarios

Interpreting scenarios:

Identifying issues,developing strategies

Interpreting the scenarios

Panel discussion onplanning systems designedto meet the challenges ofglobal change (summary/discussion of preparedbriefing papers)

Sunday, 30 JulyThe power of strategicvision (what it is, why it isneeded, how it is devel-oped, what are its benefits)

Developing a strategicvision (for 'target"institution [s))

[The afternoon will be opento attend the local High-land Games. The person atthe left is to ing the caber,just one of the sportsactivities at the Games.]

Monday, 31 JulyLinking planning to action:The critical importance ofimplementation

Strategic intelligence: Theneed for continuousscanning and monitoring

Discussion of seminarresults: "What I plan toimplement/change on myreturn"

On the Horizon 4

3BFebruary/March 1995

Perhaps themost obviousway to usescenarios is toemploy them, ineffect, as "testbeds" for theorganization'scurrent strategy.

The powerfulfeature ofscenarios isthat theystretch theenvelope of ourthinking, bothabout the futureand about ourstrategies.

continued from page 2critical "axes of uncertainty." Each of these axespresents two opposite "logics"different views ortheories of "the way the world might work" in thefuture. For example, one axis might pose thealternative views that "education will continue tobe primarily a public sector responsibility" or"privatization of education will increase dramati-cally as the role of government in our societydecreases." (Bear in mind that these are polaropposites, with intervening mid-points; but theessence of scenarios is not to examine every possi-bility, but to force our planning to consider thepossibility of drastically different futures.)

The interplay of these axes and their alternativelogics will present us with the basis for selectingthree to four scenarios we believe effectively boundthe "envelope of uncertainty" that faces our orga-nization.

Step 5: Scenarios. What do we end up with?What do scenarios look like? There are manyforms that scenarios can rake, but I have foundthat the three most important features are:

Compelling "story lines"Remember: sce-narios are not descriptions of end-points (e.g.,what does education in the year 2000 look like),but are narratives of how events might unfoldbetween now and then, given the dynamics ("sce-nario logics") we have assigned to that particularscenario. These story lines should be dramatic,compelling, logical, and plausible.

Highly descriptive titles that convey the es-sence of what is happening in each case. (JayOgilvy, for instance, titled his scenarios The Infor-mation Revolution, Education Inc., and The NewEducational Order.) After people have read thestory lines, they should find the titles to be memo-rable encapsulations of the scenario.

A table of comparative descriptions to helpplanners and decision-makers sec how the sce-narios differ along given dimensions (e.g., stu-dent-body demographics, available funding, busi-ness-education partnerships).

Step 6: Decision Implications. This is thestage at which we seek to interpret the scenarios,linking them back to the strategic decision(s) wefocused on in Step 1. Perhaps the simplest andmost direct approach is to answer two questions:

1. What are the main opportunities and threatsthat each scenario poses for our organization?

2. How well prepared are we (or can we be) toseize these opportunities and obviate or minimizethe threats?

How Can We Use Scenarios?

Beyond the opportunities/threats assessmentexercise in Step 6, there are several approaches tousing scenarios in strategy development that are

worth considering. Let me just touch on two ofthese approaches.

Perhaps the most obvious way to use scenariosis to employ them, it, effect, as "test beds" for theorganization's current strategy. What is a "strat-egy"? In simple terms, a strategy deals with the"how," "when," and "where" of an organization'sactions to achieve its vision. Every organizationhas a strategy (although often it is not clearlyspelled out), so this use should always be possible.This exercise can be as straightforward as a judg-mental assessment by planning committee mem-bers as to how well (or badly) the strategy "playsout" in each scenario. A start would be to gothrough an opportunities/threats assessment (seeabove), and then to use this assessment to addressa second set of questions. Are we satisfied with theresilience of our current strategy, its flexibility todeal with different possible conditions? Are therethings we could do to improve its resilience? And(importantly) are there contingency plans weshould put in place to help move in a differentdirection, should that be necessary?

Scenarios stimulate us to explore new strategyoptions. Look at it this way: scenarios portraydifferent futures, and these different futures wouldobviously require different strategies. The diffi-culty lies in not knowing which future will evolve.We can, however, go beyond evaluating currentstrategy to exploring these new options, scenarioby scenario. We do not have to develop a completestrategy for each scenario; we need merely use ourimagination to start some "what if" thinking.Frequently we will find that a new option, one thatwe thought of in connection with, say, a "HighPrivatization" scenario, might be a good action totake in any case; maybe not to the same extent, buta "good bet" surely.

The fundamental argument for scenario plan-ning goes somewhat like this. In art age of incre-mental change, it is safe to say that incrementalchanges in our strategies will suffice. However, anage of discontinuities and massive uncertaintiesrequires discontinuous strategies, sometimes radi-cal changes from past practices. The powerfulfeature of scenarios is that they stretch the enve-lope of our thinking, both about the future andabout our strategies.

[Ogilvy, J. (1994, April/May). The informa-tion revolution. On the Horizon, 2(4), 1-2, 4;Ogilvy, J. (1994, June/July). Education in the21st century. On the Horizon, 2 (5), 1-2; Wilson,I. (1994, February). The strategic management ofhigher education: Lessons from corporate experi-ence. On the Horizon, 2(3), 1-2.)

* *-

February /March 1995 5

33On the Horizon

SOCIALLois Graff

School of Businessand Public

ManagementThe George

Washington University

The liberal artsrepresent the besteducation formeeting thecomplex demandsof the twenty-firstcentury.

Many businessleaders faultliberal artsprograms for notdeveloping goodwork habits, notencouragingmaturity andindependence, notpromoting ethicalbehavior, andlowering academicstandards.

What is an UndergraduateEducation All About?

Richard Hersh, President of Hobart andWilliam Smith Colleges, with supportfrom AT&T, commissioned a study

(199') to assess public attitudes toward liberal artseducation.

Hersh began his study with the long acceptedassumption that the liberal arts represent the besteducation for meeting the complex demands ofthe twenty-first century. He found to the contrarythat today's parents and students placed highervalue on salable technical skills necessary to findand fill the all-important first job. He also foundthat although the business community gives lipservice to valuing a liberal arts education (e.g.,communication skills, foreign languages and cul-tural understanding, critical judgment, flexibility,and a sense of responsibility and ethics), they alsoreport a "disconnect between current [liberal arts]programs and the ideal." Many business leadersfault liberal arts programs for not developing goodwork habits, not encouraging maturity and inde-pendence, not promoting ethical behavior, andlowering academic standards.

[ Marchese, T. (1994, November). What ourpublics want, but think they don't get, from aliberal arts education, Ted Marchese interviewsRichard Hersh. AARE Bulletin, 47 (3), 8 -10.]

ImplicationsWhether a liberal arts education or a profes-

sional school education really provides the "best"preparation for life is an old argument. The pointis, that's not the point.

None of the primary concerns voiced by thebusiness community or the critical values attrib-uted to a liberal arts education corresponds to thecontent knowledge being delivered. The potentialvalue of an undergraduate liberal arts degree shouldbe the development of process skills and characterattributes.

However, members of the liberal arts faculty,including those on college-level curriculum com-mittees, concentrate on content and the relative

amount of time allocated to each of the respectivecontent areas, rather than on so-called life-values.

And why not? The training and preparation aswell as the promotion, tenure, and mobility of anindividual faculty member is closely tied to thecontent area of expertise. Promoting such thingsas good communication skills or a sense of respon-sibility does not go very far toward achieving theprofessional aims of faculty. Nor are they as easyto assess as is whether or not a student knows aparticular fact or can use a given formula.

Let's assume for a moment that we view thisfrom the perspective of an individual institutionthat embraces the mission of personal and profes-sional development of its students.

Its first step would be to define such develop-ment and to define the role of faculty in thatprocess. The process would have to determinehow to measure success as an institution and howto measure a faculty member's success within theorganization.

One problem with changing the pi ocess is thatmobility between institutions demands loyalty tothe profession as defined by content area. Thehealth of the institution, as well as the satisfactionof the individual, requires that this mobility bemaintained. Adding substantial developmentalresponsibilities to the plate would mean allowingsome of these duties to the profession to slip. Also,sharing in the responsibility for curriculum em-phases would involve many other individuals whocomplete each student's "board of advisors."

Change is the operative word, or in this case,the cooperative word for attacking the problem.The challenge is to bring stakeholders together inopen discussion to develop consensus on theobjectives of the system, mutual understanding ofwhat each would like to receive from the system,and a determination of what each can contribute.This is a very different model than the faculty-content-centered process in place in most educa-tional institutions today; it requires that faculty letgo of some of its prerogatives in order to meet theneeds ofthe whole. It implies a more meaningfulrole for business partners, for university staff, forparents, and for students themselves, and perhapsa different definition of an academic "course."

CALL FOR MANUSCRIPTSOn the Horizon articles take two forms: abstracts of one or more articles /books /Internet postings

that have implications for education or essays on emerging trends, or on developments that may affectthe future ofeducation. A unique feature of both abstracts and essays in On the Horizon is thatauchorsspeculate on the specific implications of these "signals of change" in the macroenvironment (theSTEEP sectors) for educational leaders. Abstracts and essays are brief-800 to 1,000 words (ourreaders are busy leaders who want to get to the bottom line quickly).

Please mail your abstracts or essays to James L. Morrison, School of Education, CB 3500 PeabodyHall, UNC-Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 or e-mail them to Morrison@unc.edu.

On the Horizon

'10February/March 1995

TECFNOIDG1CAL

Andy CarvinThe Corporation forPublic Broadcasting

The electronicfield trip, orcybertrip, is nowone of the hottestuses of computernetworking ineducation today.

Virtual field tripswill mean newadventures acrosstime and space,thanks to thecreativeimplementation ofelectronic realityand telepresence.

The Electronic Field Trip: NoBag Lunch Required

Ahs a group of scientists and researchersprepare for their next adventure into the

cart of the Amazon, they pack the usualarray of necessities for the trip: passports, photo-graphic equipment, malaria medicine, and maybeeven a cellular phone. But thanks to recent ad-vances in both telecommunications technologyand curricular planning, these intrepid explorersmay now include something that until recentlywould have been considered unheard of, if notbizarre: the e-mail addresses for several dozenmiddle school classes around North America.

Gone are the days when a class trip evokedimages of parental consent forms, bumpy busrides, and ant bites. The electronic field trip, orcybertrip, is now one of the hottest uses of com-puter networking in education today. The premiseof the cybertrip is simple enough: scientists, teach-ers, and other experts go to a specified locationequipped with portable computers, an Internetconnection, and sometimes a video camera for asatellite linkup. As they conduct experiments andobserve their surroundings, the team interactswith young students by way of e-mail exchangesand other communicative means.

For example, Maryland Public Television andGeoff Haines-Stiles Productions, in conjunctionwith NASA's Ames Research Center, have beguna series of electronic field trips known as Passportto Knowledge. The current adventure, Live fromAntarctica, links classrooms in the U.S. with- ateam of scientists as they study the continent,from McMurdo Base to the South Pole. As thestudents study polar climate, penguin feedinghabits and other related subjects, the scientistsconduct experiments tied to the work of the kids.An automatic e-mail distribution system knownas a listsery relays student queries to the team; theresearchers respond with data. Teachers havetheir own listsery as well, in order to discusspossible new directions for the cybertrip. And toadd additional flavor to the project, all partici-pants are united by way of regularly scheduledsatellite telecasts, aired on closed circuit TV,public television, and NASA's channel, NASASelect.

Cybertrips such as Live from Antarctica ac-tively integrate two innovative trends in educa-tion: distance learning and collaborative learning.Assisted by a networked computer, students in aclassroom may "take part" in a professional fieldexperiment. The Internet is used to transmit text,audio, images, even video data to and from anypart of the world. Students are able to talk withscientists about research, and can interject their

own interests and concerns as the project pro-ceeds. Scientists visit sites and test student theo-ries. On-line interaction is blended with tradi-tional lesson planning. Students in each class maybe required to keep journals (d prepare similarexperiments. But no matter how a given cybertripis arranged, one key component remains staticstudents and exploration team members treat eachother as colleagues. Mutual respect translates intoa mutual gain of knowledge, so both sides areenhanced by distant collaboration.

What is the future of student-researcher col-laborations? Will they catch on, given that scien-tists are busy and may not have time to interactwith young kids asking rudimentary questions?Won't a Stephen Hawking or a Roger Penrosegrow weary of ever-increasing E-mails by 14-year-olds interested in black holes? Roger Schank,Director of Northwestern University's Institutefor the Learning Sciences, noted this concernwhen he quipped, "I, along with other professorsI know, can't wait until there are hundreds of suchquestions a day" (Shank, 1994). Fortunately, thecontrolled environment of the cybertrip lessensredundancies. Discussions are moderated by teach-ers and project leaders, so no researcher is swampedwhile trying to conduct scholarly work. In the end,intensive field research and student-scientist in-teraction can be achieved in a well-planned project.

With each passing month, numerous organiza-tions around the world sponsor new geographiccyberadventures for kids. But the potential ofthese adventures goes beyond the mere explora-tion of the globe.

For example, Passport to Knowledge field tripsare extraterrestrial (Live from the Stratosphere, Livefrom the Hubble Telescope) and chronological (Livefrom the Ice Age, Live from Pompeii). From thestudents' point of view, virtual field trips willmean new adventures across time and space, thanksto the creative implementation of electronic real-ity and telepresence. Not all students are able yetto participate in this new environment, but whatis available for some students today is certainly justaround the corner for all students in the futuremuch sooner than we might think.

(Schank, R. (1994, Spring). Why hitchhikerson the information highway are going to have towait .a long time for a ride. The Aspen InstituteQuarterly, 6 (2), 28-58]

[Editor's note: For more information on Pass-port to Knowledge, write Live from Antarctica,PO Box 1502, Summit, NJ 079C2, or contactGeoff Haines-Stiles at ghstiles@ll.pbs.org. Youmay visit the NASA Ames Server by way of gopher(gopher://quest.arc.nasa.gov) or WWW (http://quest.arc.nasa.gov).]

February/Murch 199541

On the Horizon

ECONOMICA. G. Kefalas

Department ofManagement

The University ofGeorgia

Economiccollaborationamong nationsseems to beundergoing amarked change.Instead of globalintegration, thecurrent moodfavors regionalcooperation. Forexample, the U.S.seems to bepursuing a two-tiereconomic policy.

By 2020, morethan 75 of theworld's populationand wealth willreside with theAPEC area.

The Global Paradox: GoingGlobal Regionally

The Post WW H Paradigm Shift:The End of Going it Alone?

This year marks the 50th anniversary oftwo of the world's most important globalinstitutionsthe International Monetary

Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, both of whichstemmed from the 1944 Bretton Woods Agree-ment to provide a set of gu'delines to govern theexchange of goods, services, and money amongnations in order to maximize the benefits stem-ming from free trade and investment.

The ink had barely dried when the first signs ofthe need for additional agreements became appar-ent. Despite the intuitive appeal of "free tradebenefits everybody," the desired frictionless flowof goods, services, and money ran into unexpectedhurdlestariffs. To overcome tariffs, 23 coun-tries, representing half of the world's trade, met inGeneva, April-October 1947, and negotiated some45,000 agreements regarding the reduction andbinding of individual tariff levelsthe first Gen-eral Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT).

The IMF, the World Bank, and GATT havecome under severe attack. Many scholars, espe-cially those from Europe, declare that the IMFand the World Bank have "outlived their useful-ness." The GATT, after barely surviving the Uru-guay Round, has not been ratified by the Euro-pean Union (EU) or Japan, who await the out-come of the U.S. Congress. In the U.S., propo-nents herald the GATT as the "biggest tax cut forU.S. citizens," whereas opponents urge citizens tocall their congressman to vote against the "disas-trous GATT that will have a bunch of third worlddictators dictate U.S. policy" (Nader, 1994). SirJames Goldsmith, the well-known corporate raider,argues that "free trade will unleash social instabil-ity" (Farell, 1994).

The recent controversies surrounding theUnited Nations (UN), Organization ofEconomicCooperation and Development (OECD), IMF,the World Bank, and the GATT are but the visiblesymptoms of a latent disenchantment with at-tempts to address global issues and concerns.During the 80s, the Reagan administration re-fused to make U.S. payments to the UN and someof its World Bank obligations as well, telling theUN to shape up and streamline their operations toreflect the 1990s. Although President Clinton hasreached an agreement with Senator Dole to sup -poet the 22,000 pages of tariff schedules andcountry-by-country regulations of the GATT ac-cord, U.S. passage of the GATT legislation is noguarantee that its newly organized successor, the

World Trade Organization (WTO), will be treatedmore kindly.

The New Paradigm: RegionalismEconomic collaboration among nations seems

to be undergoing a marked change. Instead ofglobal integration, the current mood favors re-gional cooperation. For example, the U.S. seemsto be pursuing a two -tier economic policy. Thefirst tier is economic integration and involvesexpanding the North American Free Trade Agree-ment (NAFTA) to South America. Chile hasalready initiated talks about joining NAFTA. Thesecond tier is economic cooperation (e.g., theAsia-Pacific Economic Cooperation [APEC] ac-cord). In either case, global cooperation as repre-sented by OECD is not in vogue.

At the moment, the searchlights are directedtowards APEC. Seventeen nations were repre-sented in last December's meeting in Jakarta.Besides the 12 charter members from APEC'sfounding in 1989the Association of the SouthEast Asia Nations (ASEAN), Australia, Canada,Japan, The Republic of Korea, New Zealand, andthe U.S.APEC now includes China, HongKong, Taiwan, Mexico, Papua New Guinea, andChile. By 2020, more than 75% of the world'spopulation and wealth will reside within the APECarea. Between now and then, a massive recon-struction of the area's infrastructure andinfostructure will be completed. Business Weekestimates reach the one trillion dollar mark for theAsian infrastructure alone (Holstein, 1994). Ameri-can businesses are staking their futures in the FarEast; they interpret APEC as a good start.

[Farell, C. (1994, December 5). Sir JimmyGoldsmith goes jousting at GATT, Business Week,36; 4; Holstein, W. J. (1994, November 20).Building the new Asia. Business Week, 62-68;Nader, R. (1994, November 28). CNN TV ad.]

ImplicationsIf you are confused with the entire issue of

economic integration, free trade, and globalization,you are not alone. The entire matter of providingfor infinite human wishes and wants in a finite lifesupport system, the earth, is indeed perplexing.For example, while the U.S. administration pur-sues open regionalism in its quest to provide arespectable economic well-being for its citizens,California citizens are fiercely pursuing a "linger-ing isolationism" with the anti-immigrant refer-endum.

What must we do? Schools must teach currentreality. At the primary school level, children mustbe trained to look East, to the future, where theaction is, and not West, to the past, where thehistory is. In addition, children must be exposed

On the Horizon 8

42February/March 1995

ENVIRONIVEENTAL

Douglas J. Crawford-Brown

Institute forEnvironmental

StudiesUniversity of NorthCarolina at Chapel

Hill

The role of sciencein environmentaldecisions hasincreaseddramatically withthe rise of riskanalysis as a toolused by policymakers.

to the futility of countries "going it alone"; theymust be taught the virtues of the three Cscommunication, cooperation, collaboration.

What about universities? Many university ad-ministrations view with suspicion proposals byfaculty members wishing to start a strategic alli-ance with an Asian institution. Some taxpayersresent the large numbers ofAsian students in theirschools. And yet agreements such as APEC and

NAFTA require professionals with open mindsand collaborative moods. Universities must pro-mote new educational programs and alliances thatenhance training professionals for this new worldofeconomic cooperation. Finally, universities mustre-engineer their curricula around theregionalization process that seems to be here tostay as the new paradigm shifts towards the twenty -first century.

Science and Evidence inEnvironmental Risk Analysis

The role of science in environmental deci-sions has increased dramatically with therise of risk analysis as a tool used by policy

makers. The goal of risk analysis is to find themajor kinds of risk in the environment, describetheir sources, estimate the degree of threat tohuman health and ecosystems, and provide thisinformation to policy makers in a way that is

understandable to non-specialists (Covello &Merkhofer, 1993). In its more creative form, riskanalysis also helps to rank environmental risks,allowing policy makers to focus resources onthose risks that are most significant, and to sug-gest the conditions in which a pollutant poses arisk. Once these conditions are known, environ-mental policies can be designed to avoid them.

Benefits of risk analysis are limited, both byneed and by quality. For example, some environ-mental problems are so obvious that detailedscientific study is not called for (e.g., odors fromhog farms); whereas others, such as arsenic indrinking water, are not obvious to the casualobserver and serve a vital purpose. But definingthe worthy risk-items and choosing options fortheir solution require a top quality of scienceupon which to rest useful predictions. Faultypredictions could result in drawing valuable re-sources away from truly substantial risks.

Science, Uncertainty, andJudgment

What are the tools for judging the quality ofscience? Most are Found in "uncertainty analysis,"a distinct part of risk analysis in which analystsdescribe how confident they are in each predic-tion. These methods were developed in engineer-ing and statistics to deal with problems of thereliability ofsystems such as nuclear reactors, andthey arc studied as a way of dealing with theproblem of making decisions under uncertainty

(Morgan & Henrion, 1990). Although useful-forengineered systems where uncertainty can be mea-sured by the rate at which accidents have takenplace, they are less satisfactory for problems ofenvironmental risk. Why? Scientists aren't facedonly with a problem of measuring rates at whichenvironmental damage takes place; they also arefaced with a conceptual problem ofdefining "dam-age" and predicting rates using theories of anenvironmental system that may be understoodpoorly.

All of this means risk analysts must considermore than the classical scientific aspects of uncer-tainty. They must consider: (a) the quality ofevidence, including not only questions ofstatisticsbut also questions of the bias and competence ofpeople collecting that evidence; (b) the process ofreasoning by which scientists draw conclusionsfrom this evidence; (c) the human judgments thatmust be made in "weighting" different kinds ofevidence into an estimate of risk; and (d) thereasons for differences of judgment between groupsof scientists. Risk analysts must decide what is"acceptable evidence" for a prediction of risk thatwill find its way into environmental decisions(Mayo & Hollander, 1991; National ResearchCouncil, 1995). These problems aren't usuallydiscussed in statistical, engineering, or even envi-ronmental science literature. They are problems inpsychology, sociology, and philosophy. They areissues of how "quality" should be defined andjudged and factored into decisions. They are issuesof the humanities rooted firmly in a culture thatinsists on excellence in decisions.

[Covello, V. & Merkhofer, M. (1993). Risk

assessment methods: Approaches for assessing healthand environmental risks. New York: Plenum Press;Mayo, D. and Hollander, R. (Eds.) (1991). Ac-

ceptable evidence: Science and values in risk manage-ment. New York: Oxford University Press; Mor-gan, M. and Henrion, M. (1990). Uncertainty: Aguide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitativerisk and polity analysis. Cambridge: CambridgeUniversity Press; National Research Council.

February/March 1995 9 On the Horizon

43

Education mustprepare studentsto analyze thequality ofpredictions fromenvironmental riskanalysis.

POLITICALLaurence Marcus

Program inEducationalLeadership

Rowan College

Studies indicatethat both theDanish public andpolitical leadersare betterinformed on issuestackled throughthis approach thanare persons inother countriesfacing similarissues.

(1995). Science and judgment in risk assessment.Washington, DC: National Academy Press.)

ImplicationsEnvironmental science has its foot first and

foremost in the sciences. From that base, the fieldhas stepped out into the social sciences, particu-larly into the fields of economics, sociology, geog-raphy, and anthropology. These remain impor-tant areas ofstudy in gaining a complete apprecia-tion for the complexity of environmental prob-

lems. More attention must be directed towardsthe humanities. Education must prepare studentsto analyze the quality of predictions from environ-mental risk analysis, and to compare this qualityagainst culturally valid standards of excellence.Environmental education must include a stage atwhich students prepare summaries of scientificpredictions, and must use humanities-based envi-ronmental analysis to convince others of the rea-sonableness of their predictions as a foundationfor environmental decisions.

Citizen ConsensusConferences Point to BetterPolitical Decisions

Aiapproach to political decision-mak-ng is emerging from Europe. First uti-ized in Denmark, the citizens consensus

model puts public policy questions before smallbut representative groups of lay people, providesthem with the resources of an expert panel com-prised of persons with differing viewpoints, andresults in a report that can be broadly distributedand debated by members of the public.

For example, the Danish Board ofTechnology(a group analogous to the U.S. Office of Techno-logical Assessment), seeking to shed light on aparticular public policy question in its domain,selects a representative group of 15 Danes fromamong the respondents to an advertisement. Thegroup, comprised totally of regular citizens fromall walks of life, drafts a set of questions based ona background paper supplied by the Board, whichforwards the list to a specially selected panel ofexperts with widely divergent views from thescientific, technological, business, and labor com-lunities, as well as from ethicists and social

scientists. The responses of each panelist are re-viewed by the lay group, who may decide toreplace some members of the expert panel. Theprocess culminates with a three-day conference,open to the media and the public. Expert panelistsmake opening presentations, members of the laypanel pose follow-up questions, and then the laypanel cross-examines the expert panel. The laypanel prepares a report, summarizing the issues onwhich it reached consensus, and characterizingthe remaining points of disagreement. The reportis then released to the press and disseminated by

the Board, which hosts local debates on the topic.Some 600 local debates have been held on

biotechnology matters alone. Studies indicate thatboth the Danish public and political leaders arebetter informed on issues tackled through thisapproach than are persons in other countriesfacing similar issues. The success of the citizensconsensus model in Denmark has led to its imple-mentation in the Netherlands and the UnitedKingdom (Sclove, 1994).

A similar model has been tested by the Leagueof Women Voters in the U.S. through their"citizens' jury" model, whereby a representativegroup of citizens poses a series of questions tocandidates for major office, studies their writtenresponses, examines representatives of the candi-dates, and then prepares a report citing the strengthsand weaknesses of each candidate on each issue.The citizens jury received praise for its delibera-tions in the 1992 U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvaniabetween Arlen Specter and Lynn Yaekel, as well asin the 1994 Pennsylvania gubernatorial electionbetween Tom Ridge and Marc Singel.

[ Sclove, R. (1994, November 17). Citizen-based technology assessment: An update on con-sensus conferences in Europe, Originally postedas Loka Alert 1-12 on Loka-List (address unavail-able); reposted on Futurework List(futurework@csf.colorado.edu) on January 3,

ImplicationsRoss Perot and others have suggested that

legislative leaders should take the pulse of thepeople on important public policy matters throughelectronic town meetings. Although on its facesuch an approach would provide ordinary citizensthe opportunity to make their views known at a

On the Horizon 10 February /March 1995

4 4

L

The Danish modelof helping a groupof ordinary peopleto grapple with apublic policymatter offers apromisingopportunity for thedevelopment of aninformedconsensus uponwhich politicaldeterminationscan be made.

Although theMiddle StatesAssociation has adeservedly strongreputation, manyprivate accreditinggroups have notmaintained highstandards.

time when it would count, the electronic townmeeting, absent a full understanding of the com-plexities of the issue on the part of the personsproviding the input, would result in uninformed(and potentially dangerous) decision-making. TheDanish model of helping a group of ordinarypeople to grapple with a public policy matteroffers a more promising opportunity for the de-velopment of an informed consensus upon whichpolitical determinations can be made. Educators,particularly those interested in lifelong learning,should seize the opportunity to advance democ-racy by advocating this gridlock-busting model.

U.S. Cities Without aChance?

In late December, the federal government gaveChristmas presents in the form of empowermentzone grants and tax breaks totaling $3.5 billion toeight cities, including New York and Atlanta.However, according to former Albuquerque mayorand urban theorist David Rui k, six of the citiesPhiladelphia and Camden, \IJ (which share agrant), Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, and De-troitare among 24 American cities that havepassed a "point of no return," as gauged by thefollowing factors: a 20% decline from peak popu-lation, a minority population exceeding 30%,and a per capita income no more that 70% ofsuburban income. Rusk's study of 522 cities leadshim to conclude that the extreme racial andeconomic isolation of the 24, along with their"inelastic" geography, renders each incapable ofturning itself around by what the city does withinits own borders. The remaining 18 cities on theendangered list Include Atlantic City, BentonHarbor (MI), Birmingham, Buffalo, Dayton, EastChicago, East St. Louis (IL), Flint, Gary, Hart-ford, Holyoke, Newark, New Haven, NorthChicago, St. Louis, Saginaw (MI), Trenton, andYoungstown.

Rusk notes that cities such as Houston, Ra-leigh, and Nashville that have been free to expandtheir boundaries through annexation of newlydeveloping suburbs have been able to maintain amiddle class base and have retained a level ofsocialintegration, with the children of every race andclass attending the same school system. On theother hand, the inelastic cities have become "thesociological equivalents of giant public housingprojects."

[Montgomery, L. (1994, December 23).Grants may be going to hopeless cities, Philadel-phia Inquirer, p A4.]

ImplicationsTo avoid what Rusk posits will occur (that the

point of no return will eventually extend beyondthe 24 cities to their suburbs) as well as to build aconstituency that understands the broad benefitsof rescuing the center cities, educators must pro-vide leadership in forging alliances between cen-tral cities and suburbs (including educational alli-ances) as an indication of their "walking the talk."

Regulation vs. VoluntaryAccreditation

At their annual conference held in Philadelphiain December, officials of the Commission onHigher Education of the Middle States Associa-tion of Colleges and Schools criticized the federalgovernment for tampering with the long-standingpractice in higher education of private, voluntaryaccreditation. In accordance with rules by the U.S.Department of Education last summer, accredit-ing agencies must set standards for program length,tuition, fees, and student loan defaults, and mustconduct unannounced visits to any institutionoffering "vocational education." Responding tothe complaint, David Longanecker, Assistant Sec-retary for Postsecondary Education, acknowledgedthat the 1992 law upon which the regulations werebased "fundamentally change[d] the relationshipbetween the accrediting bodies and the federalgovernment, from voluntary to sort of voluntary-mandatory."

[Goodman, H. (1994, December 3). Grouptargets U.S. rules on colleges, Philadelphia In-quirer, p. A2.]

ImplicationsAlthough the Middle State.s Association has a

deservedly strong reputation, many private ac-crediting groups have not maintained high stan-dards. Further, the now-defunct Council onPostsecondary Accreditation (COPA), the asso-ciation of accrediting associations, was never ableto engender among its membership the need toenforce adequate minimal standards, particularlyin regard to low graduation rates and high studentloan default rates. Given the magnitude of publicfunds involved in postsecondary education, edu-cators involved in and favoring voluntary accredi-tation must assure the application of high stan-dards in the accreditation process. Otherwise, thepublic, concerned for the effective use of taxdollars, may insist on regulatory accreditation.

February/March 1995 11 On the Horizon

45

COMMENTARY

George KellerEducation Consultant

and Editor,Planning for Higher

Education

What is needed inhigher educationtoday is a betterbalance of studentwants, facultyproclivities, andsociety's needs,not a lunge towardfull consumerism.

The fundamentalflaw of the gush ofschool and collegereform proposals istheir narrow focuson schools andcolleges, as ifsociety could bebeautiful if only wefixed the schools.

Thinking About EducationalReform

/n the October/November issue of On theHorizon, Richard Heydinger proposed a neworganizational model for U.S. public higher

education; and in the December/January issue,James Coleman, perhaps America's finest sociolo-gist of education, offered ideas for "redesigning"the public schools. These two articles have stimu-lated a range of emotions in me, from celebrationto dismay.

Heydinger, as you recall, proposed a radical"new organizational paradigm" that would put,

college students, or "the customers," as he callsthem, in charge of their educations. And he wouldcreate a super coordinating board in each state,with a series of sub-boards, educational banks,and separate enterprises under that superboard tomake sure the "needs of the customers" wereserved. In effect, each state would buy or contractfor professors and facilities to give undergraduateswhat they wanted.

Now, I can only endorse the desire to haveprofessors serve the students more and their owninterests less. Too much of higher education iscurrently arranged for, structured, and fracturedfor the benefit of faculty members. But studentsare not always able to see what they "need" in theireducation to fulfill their aspirations. Or, they seethe need but avoid it, as some of my graduatestudents in higher education studies did whenthey tried to duck out of mastering statistics. Thestudent-run alternative colleges of the 1960s and1970s were largely a disaster, with courses on suchsubjects as Che Guevara's tactics and belly-danc-ing, and with pitifully little study of major texts ormethodology.

What is needed in higher education today is abetter balance of student wants, faculty proclivi-ties, and society's needs, not a lunge toward fullconsumerism. The performance of most statecoordinating boards hardly suggests that we shouldplace hope in such bodies. There is also the giantmatter of who will conduct basic and ap_pliedresearch for the nation if professors are hired onshort-term contracts only to deliver instruction totheir "customers."

Richard Heydinger, a bright, former vice presi-dent at the University of Minnesota, is passion-ately devoted to shifting more control to collegestudents and forcing professors to be more re-sponsible toward the education of the country'sbetter young minds. But his organizational "para-digm" seems perilously close to a marriage ofcorporate outsourcing and TQM with the oldSoviet Politburo. Customer service or else!

James Coleman's article suggested that publicschools might flourish if only they were no longer

"administratively driven" but became "outputdriven"; and if they had external standards im-posed as the "basis of all evaluations of studentperformance," with tangible annual rewards forstudent and teacher achievements. Coleman of-fered three possible designs.

Design number one proposed teacher collec-tives with "no school principal" and with anygroup of teachers able to set up their own school.A second idea was to employ selected students inthe middle and high schools as assistant teachersin the lower schools and to pay them for theirwork. The third design substituted interscholasticcompetitions for external standards, thus initiat-ing a kind of academic NCAA of schools with"individual and team rankings."

Awed as I am by Coleman's many superbcontributions to the sociology of education, andby the imaginative daring of these redesigns, I ambaffled by his essay. In his famous 1966 ColemanReport, he found that schools "bring little influ-ence to bear on a child's achievement that isindependent of his background and social con-text." And in a marvelous article in the August/September 1987 Educational Researcher called"Families and Schools," Coleman argued for theindispensability of "social capital," or the bundleof outside parental, religious, community, andother supports for public school studies. How is itthat he can now think that tinkering with schoolorganization, or eliminating principals, will sud-denly reform American public education?

In my view both the Heydinger and Colemanarticles neglect the crucial role of what Colemancalls "social capital." The fundamental flaw of thegush of school and college reform proposals istheir narrow focus on schools and colleges, as ifsociety could be beautiful if only we fixed theschools. The 13 or 14 years of formal schoolingand 4 years of college is a very long stretch ofpassive, isolated, bookish work during the mostrestless, exploratory, athletic, sexually active timein a young person's life. It can be sustained onlywith strong family backup and the support ofother community forces and enticements.

Great teachers can make a huge difference. Socan structural change in the schools and colleges.But even the most inspiring teachers cannot de-liver if most students disdain the enterprise andare not encouraged by non-school pressures tostudy for their long-term interests. Only a mili-tary-like setting can teach those who look atschooling as a mandatory and overly long appren-ticeship that is often irrelevant and boring.

If we wish to redesign our schools and collegesfor the future, we must understand that our old -

time educational institutions are enmeshed in anewly powerful tangle of social and educationalforces that now shape a young person's values and

On the Horizon 12 February/March 1995

46

We mustunderstand thedifferent role thatpublic schools andcolleges play inthe novel,information-rich,highlytechnological, andinternationally-attuned societywe have entered.

IN THE 'NETAndy Carvin

The Corporation forPublic Broadcasting

The Web providesan excellentmedium on whichto design on-linecurricula.

learning: radio, peer groups, newspapers andmagazines, families, television, religious leadersand groups, rock and rap music, theaters, drugs,race relations, computers, sports, political de-bates, cinemas, public libraries, youth groups andgangs, parttime work and chores, and more.

Historian Bernard Bailyn warned us in the1960s with his tinygem, Education in the FormingofArnerican Society, about the danger of reformerswho "directed their attention almost exclusivelyto the part of the educational process carried on informal institutions of instruction." Formal school-ing is not the same as education. In our time,schools and colleges may be becoming less influ-

-ential, as certain traditional supports for formalschooling such as family, religion, and the local orethnic community wither, and new forces such astelevision, popular music, and sports become

more dominant shapers of young people's behav-ior, values, and the desire to learn.

As Lawrence Cremin advocated in his brilliantlittle book, Public Education, we urgently need a

new "ecology" of education. To be effective, wemust understand the different role that publicschools and colleges play in the novel, informa-tion-rich, highly technological, and internation-ally-attuned society we have enteredwithoutforgetting that a more highly trained and intellec-tual population is essential for any country tocompere in the future. Abraham Lincoln said itwell of another traumatic period in Americanhistory: "The dogmas of the quiet past are inad-equate to the stormy present. As our case is new, sowe must think anew. We must disenthrall our-selves."

The World Wide Web: TheKiller Application forEducation?

The World-Wide Web (also known asWWW, the Web, and W3) is a lattice ofinterconnected computer sires that all

share a format called hypertext markup language(HTML), which makes it possible to link text,sounds, even video, on one site to any other site inthe world. The Web is viewed as the first real stepto the creation of an "information superhigh-way," but for all of its profit-making and curios-ity-seeking potential in the corporate and re-search worlds, the Web has largely been ignoredas a powerful pedagogical tool. What exactly doesthe World-Wide Web have to offer education?

The Web as TutorialThe most basic element of using the Web as a

pedagogical instrument is found in its ability topresent information clearly, attractively and logi-cally. One can use hypertext to organize enor-mous amounts ofdata in a relatively lucid fashion,using menus, key word searches, even clickablegraphics as a means to link the user to more andmore information.

The Web provides an excellent medium onwhich to design on-line curricula. For example,there already exists on the Web carefully anno-tated and cross-referenced hypertexts of the entireworks of Shakespeare (http://the-tech.mit.edu/Shakespeare.html). With a little more work, thissite could easily include question and answer

sessions, as well as audio and video clips of eachShakespeare play and poem, thus transformingthe works of Shakespeare into an interactivedocument that would be more than just useful andeducational to students; it would also be fun.

The Web as Forum

Internet proponents have long touted com-puter networking as a forum for discussion and asa marketplace of ideas and information. By devel-oping a Web site in conjunction with an e-maildiscussion group (known as a listserv), designerscan create a multimedia/hypermedia dialogue onany given subject. For example, a physics teachermay organize a Web site that includes all classlectures, frequently asked questions, and multi-media presentations of experiments using text,graphics, and audio. With the inclusion of alistserv, students may automatically e-mail infor-mation to that site in the form of additionalquestions, project reports, or essays. Class infor-mation can be organized and stored in the Website, which would allow easy access. Students donot even need to become experts in HTML (thoughit certainly would be useful); an e-mail-to-HTMLconverter can take care of that for them, and thusallow the class to participate in a logged interactivedialogue.

The Web as Assessment CenterFor some years now, teachers have used portfo-

lio assessment, a form of assessment in whichstudents collect their best work in a class andpresent is at the end ofthe semester for final grades.Portfolios offer a simple and fairly effective way of

February/March 1995 13

4 7On the Horizon

The World-WideWeb, as it sohappens, presentsan excellentmedium forstudents toorganize andpublish their ownprocessfolios.

For theeducationalcommunity, on-linehypermedia offersa simple way todesign interactivelessons for localand distant use.

BOOK

REVIEWRobert Bunge

Mount Vernon (WA)High School

assessing students' work without the typical mul-tiple choice, end of term tests. Howard Gardner(1994) takes this concept one step further andrefines is into what he calls a processfolio. Unlikea portfolio, a processfolio includes every singlecreative step towards some particular goal. In thecase of a major report, students include all com-ments and criticisms made by their colleagues andtheir teacher. In addition, students articulate ameta-assessment of their work-in-progress. In theend, processfolios demonstrate students' growthand understanding of a subject as well as theirability to give and take constructive criticism.

The World-Wide Web, as it so happens, pre-sents an excellent medium for students to organizeand publish their own processfolios. Creatinghypertext links noting the progress of the projectwould be a simple matter once students havedeveloped a basic grasp of hypertext markup (askill that could be developed in a minimal amountofclass hours). And because the nature of the Weballows documents to exist as in-progress texts (i.e.,information can be formed and developed on-line), students can share their work as it grows andlearn from the responses they receive from otherWeb users. The Web emphasizes the processaspect of the processfolio because the project isavailable for all to sec and explore, 24 hours a day,instead of being viewed only once or twice amonth during in-class project updates.

What Next for the Web?Commercial developers have recently adopted

the Web as their new pet cybermedium, from theStar Trek: Generations site to Time/Warner's En-tertainment Weekly On-Line. Increasing the prof-itability of these ventures are planned inclusionso f basic Web browsers in the operating systems forboth Macintosh and Intel-based PCs, as well asAmerica On-Line's plans to make the Web acces-sible over its commercial subscription services asearly as February 1995.

The Web is accepted internationally becauseof its relative ease of use and cross-compatibility;future changes in HTML standards, especially inlayout design and in the integration of live com-munication protocols, will inevitably make it evenmore powerful. For the educational community,on-line hypermedia offers a simple way to designinteractive lessons for local and distant use. And asthe World-Wide Web becomes more accessible toschools around the country, teachers and studentsalike will be able to explore cyberspace and designnew resources for a multitude of purposes thathave yet to be realized.

[Gardner, H. (1994). Multiple intelligences:The theory in practice. New York: Basic Books.]

[Editor's note: Andy Carvin discusses the useof Web sites and education on Ed Web, a Web siteat http://k12.cnidr.org:90, and on WWWEDU,a listsery discussion at listserv@k12.cnidr.org. Hise-mail address is acarvin @k12.cnidr.org]

The Universal Schoolhouseames Moffett (1994) envisions schools givingway to "learning networks" distributedthroughout the community, learning becom-

g holistic and student-centered, and curriculabecoming individualized, with current educationalstructures such as subjects and courses, textbooksand examinations, credits and certificates yieldingto self-directed and self-assessed learning activi-ties. Education will be completely voluntary, al-though publicly supported and united with a widerange of social services.

Moffett belongs in the tradition of radicaleducational theorists including Maria Montessori,Rudolf Steiner, John Dewey, and Ivan Illich.Many of Moffett's proposals for community learn-ing networks echo ideas sec forth by Illich inDeschooling Society (1971). For Moffett, as forIllich, any curriculum selection, or enforcementof standards by social groups larger than theindividual, frustrates the individual's innate de-sire to learn and leads to disempowerment of the

learner. Moffett posits that solutions to a widerange of social problems (e.g., unwanted preg-nancy, overpopulation, drug abuse, crime, illhealth, selfishness, poverty, unemployment, debtoreconomics, deteriorating families, crumbling in-frastructure, environmental pollution) dependupon the development of spiritual maturity inindividuals. Schools, better suited for supportingcollective rather than individual consciousness,have essentially become obsolete. Each commu-nity should form "a totally individualized, far-flung learning network giving people of all agesaccess to any learning resource at any time." (p.xvi)

Moffett specifies several change-drivers in thecurrent situation that support practical imple-mentation of his proposals. One of these is thedepth of social problems such as those listedabove. Traditional education is failing to preparestudents to cope with interdisciplinary challengessuch as AIDS, youth violence, and the greenhouseeffect, so education will be forced to change as amatter of social survival.

On the Horizon 14

48February/March 1995

With theacceleratingdevelopment ofinteractiveeducationalsoftware andnetworkablemultimediacurriculumpackages, directlearner access to avast range ofinstructionalresources may bejust over thehorizon.

TOOLSBernard Glassman

Pragmatix:InformationDesign

Another change-driver is technology. Thegrowing availability of multimedia CD-ROM,Hypercard stacks, and the Internet makes decen-tralized learning activities more feasible now.

Other change-drivers are trends within educa-tion itself. Such current reform trends include:individualization, collaborative and cooperativelearning, active learning, integrated learning, het-erogeneous grouping, nongrading, nontracking,team teaching, peer tutoring, cross-age tutoring,paraprofessional aides, block scheduling, full-timeuse of schools, eliminating textbooks, replacingstandardized tests by on-site assessment, mergingadult education with regular schooling, appren-ticing, mentoring, and community service.

Moffett sees teachers taking on new roles astutors, coaches, and mentors. Students will learnthrough travel, community service, games,therapy, the arts, spiritual disciplines, and self-teaching. An especially powerful set of instruc-tional techniques will derive from "rippling."Rippling, a form of cultural diffusion, is the"informal, continuous tutorial of some knowl-edge or skill that everybody is at once receivingfrom the more experienced and transmitting inturn to the less experienced" (p. 168). Moffettbelieves that the natural setting for rippling is inthe community, among groups mixed heteroge-neously by age and experience. Apprenticing andinterning are familiar, formalized examples ofrippling. In the community learning networks,learning will be life-long and continuous. Every-one will take turns acting as both teacher andlearner.

According to Moffett, this emerging new sys-tem of education will lead to cultural transforma-tion. Public services will be integrated with publiceducation in a "master problem solving process."Enlightened individuals nurtured by the commu-nity learning networks will band together to createa better society, representing a breakthrough inthe course of human evolution.

(II lich, I.(1971). Deschoolingsociety. New York:HarFer and Row; Moffett, J. (1994). The univer-sal schoolhouse: spiritual awakening through educa-tion. San Francisco: Jossey - Bass.]

ImplicationsIt is tempting to dismiss a number of Moffett's

ideas as utopian. However, the change-drivers hedescribes are real, and although schools will prob-ably not be eliminated, they may begin to take oncharacteristics suggested by Moffett's learningnetworks (e.g., multiage, year-round, individual-ized, project-based, service learning). His sugges-tion of a learning network that is available to theentire community at all times simply describesservices already present on the Internet. Moffett'snotion of instruction through rippling appearsfeasible if learners have access to e-mail, Liscservs,Gopher, Veronica, Archie, Usenet News and theWorld Wide Web. With the accelerating develop-ment of interactive educational software andnetworkable multimedia curriculum packages, di-rect learner access to a vast range of instructionalresources may be just over the horizon. Moffett'sbook helps us visualize emerging trends and forman outline of alternative educational futures.

ClarisWorks 3.0 for Windowsand Macintosh.

At last there is an integrated suite of applica-tions that is small enough for most laptops,versatile enough for most office use, and fullyinterplatform-compatible between Windows andthe Macintosh.

It's ClarisWorks 3.0. It was good on the Macand only mediocre under Windows in its lastversion, but it's just about everything most of usneed most of the time on both machines, now.

ClarisWorks 3.0. uses the convention of the"frame," a rectangular area that you draw anddesignate as a text area, a spreadsheet, a piece of"drawing paper" or a database screen layout. It'sall there: a full set of drawing tools, great graphsthat can be easily moved around your page, spread-sheets that can be frames in the middle of text, sothat what might be a mere table in Word or

WordPerfect is a highly function-filled, com-pletely active array of values and connecting for-mulas. No need to get caught up in the RAM-hogging intricacies of DDE and OLE, or publishand subscribe.

The weakness, if you want to call it that,continues to be the terminal emulator. UnderWindows, ClarisWorks has nu built-in commu-nications, but it can run another emulatorseamlessly. The default is Windows Terminal,which must be Claris's way of pointing out justhow bad a terminal program can be. You can makeClarisWorks run your favorite emulator; ifyou area ProComm or Crosstalk fan, you can get to itfrom ClarisWorks and copy and paste text fromthe screen. I don't know what happens if you tryto link to a TCP/IP client.

ClarisWorks comes with a better collection ofclip art than any of the Microsoft products exceptfor PowerPoint. You can put together a veryattractive slide show with it.

February/March 1995 15

49On the Horizon

You won't bemaking a mistakemoving from yourcurrentspreadsheet andword processorand database intothis luxurioussuite.

As for interplatform compatibility, I couldn'tfind a file that I could create on the Mac and norrun on the PC, or create under Windows and nottransport to the Mac. I'd suggest you stick withTrueType fonts, though. They transport moreeasily.

ClarisWorks comes with a heck of a database,one you will find yourself using for a lot more than

your professional contacts, theproduction of formletters, or the management of student grades.Even without it, ClarisWorks would beatMicrosoftWorks without a contest. But the database con-tinues to offer a distillation of the finest featuresof FileMaker Pro, and some they haven't evengotten around to yet. You'll miss the strength ofFMPro's scripting only if you have gotten used toit. But ClarisWorks his a macro facility, that,while not editable, is reliable.

For a planner, the database is an excellentrepository of abstracts, with a resourceful textsearch capability. You can search for every article,produce a set of citations, turn it into a fulldocument, using a consistent set of menus andcommands. The find capability is reasonably flex-ible, but not fancy. Don't expect SQL. But you'lldesign reports with ease.

One other weakness: Claris packages some-thing called Assistants with ClarisWorks. Theyare really nothing more than a few templates forthe most common documents. But they don'tcompare with Microsoft's wizards, and it's timesomeone else did come out with something thatcompetes with that excellent innovation.

Nonetheless, you won't be making a mistakemoving from your current spreadsheet and wordprocessor and database into this luxurious suite.

The Fifth Global Change Strategic Management Seminar for Educational Leaders

Sponsored by On the Horizon, 27-31 July 1995, University of Saint Andrews, Scotland

CALL FOR BRIEFING PAPERSThis is a call for briefing papers to be presented at the Strategic Management Seminar. Papers

should address either of two topics: (1) Challenges of Global Change or (2) Planning Systems

Designed to Meet the Challenges of Global Changes. Each briefing paper should be 5-10 pages,

single-spaced. To submit a briefing paper, send a one-pageabstract no later than 30 April 1995 to

James L. Morrison at the On the Horizon office. Thedeadline for submission of the full text paper

is 30 June 1995.

On the Horizon(k:Sii University of North Carolina

School of EducationCB# 3500 Peabody HallChapel Hill, NC 27599-3500

Non-Profit OrganizationU.S. Postage

PAIDPermit No. 177

Chapel Hill, N.C. 27599-1110

On the Horizon 16

50February/March 1995

AD

Human Factors: The Problems of IntegratingPeople and Technology in the Workplace

=i171177.11ownWeiner, Edrich,

Brown, Inc.

The massiveintroduction ofworkplacetechnology hasalready resulted insignificantchanges inorganizationalstructures andrelationships.

IN THIS ISSUE:

The extraordinaryperhaps even revolu-tionarydevelopment of new workplacetechnologies has generated reactions rang-

ing from wild-eyed optimism to a revived Luddism.The optimistic champions of technology predicta new Golden Age, with machines liberatingpeople from drudgery and danger. The neo-Luddites (whose attitude can perhaps best besummed up by the late I. F. Stone's wry remarkafter trying to learn how to use a word processor:"The only thing God didn't do to Job was givehim a computer! ") envision dire economic andsocial consequences for people.

With such extremes of reactions to the ma-chines and their possible impacts, it must beobvious that greater attention should be paid tothe interaction of people and technologyand,more specifically, how to improve that interaction.It must be remembered that the major, if not theonly, purpose of workplace technology is to en-hance human productivity. This purpose is un-dermined by the growing problem of humanfactorsthe gap between human and machinecapabilities.

The massive introduction of workplace tech-nology has already resulted in significant changesin organizational structures and relationships. It

Human Factors: The Problems of IntegratingPeople and Technology in the Workplace,Arnold Brown 1

From the Editor - On the Horizon, Horizon List,Horizon Home Page: A Forerunner of Educationin the 21st Century, James L. Morrison 3

Trends and EventsSocial - Lois Graff 6Technological - William H. Graves 7

Economic - A. G. Kefalas 8Environmental - Douglas Crawford-Brown 9

Political - Laurence Marcus 10

is unreasonable to assume that such significantchanges can be made without a high degree ofindividual and organizational trauma. The pur-pose of studying human factors is to minimizethese traumas and to maximize the return from theenormous investment in technology.

Economist Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanleysays that new technology now accounts for morethan one-third of all capital equipment outlays,and the ratio of high-tech capital per worker hasmore than doubled in the last 10 years. Thepresumption that such high-tech investment guar-antees a proauaivity payback he says, "is a luxurythe economy can no longer afford."

Among the reasons cited most often for thediscrepancy between productivity growth and in-vestment in technology are that:

many managers and workers lack the knowledgeand training to use workplace technology effec-tively, andsupervisors lack appropriate techniques for man-aging the interaction of people and machines.

Generally unstated but implicit in all analysesis the belief that the human factors gap is bridge-able through orthodox management techniqueseducation and training, for example. Is this beliefwarranted?

CommentaryUsing Technology to Transform HigherEducation,Stephen C. Ehrmann 12

Methods & TechniquesEnvironmental Scanning at OaklandCommunity College,Martin Orlowski 13

ToolsMagic Cap (and Gown),Bernard Glassman 14

Licensed for internal duplication to:

BEST COPY AVAILABLE51

New technologieshave a profoundeffect on ourbiologically andculturallyingrainedperceptions oftime and space.

As technologicaladvancescontinueandeven speed upitis likely that moreand more peoplewith hard-earnedskills of themoment willbecome marginallyuseful as newskills replacethem.

Human FactorsPerhaps above all, the new technologies are

disorienting. They have a profound effect on ourbiologically and culturally ingrained perceptionsof time and space. Advances in communicationstechnology now mean that everything happensinstantaneously everywhere. Distance has vanished.Traditional rhythms of day and night, work andleisure, become increasingly irrelevant as the newtechnologies make possibleindeed, requirethe 24-hour day and the seven-day week. Beepers,modems, cellular phones, PCsthese and otherdevelopments mean that one will always be linkedclosely to the job, unobstructed by time or space.

The effects of the disorientation these changescause are seen in many ways. Most striking is thegrowing perception by more and more people thatthey have less time than before. In fact, somestudies show that people actually have more time.The apparent contradictions show the befuddle-ment created largely by the impacts of new tech-nologies on people's sense of time and place.

There is, in addition, a phenomenon we call"The Frankenstein Syndrome"a deep and per-vasive fear of the consequences of unrestrainedscientific and technological development. Whilethe rwo most prominent sources of this fear arenuclear and genetic technologies, informationand communications technologies are significantcontributors as well. To many people they repre-sent cause for economic concernjob displace-ment, in particular. They also arouse concernabout encroachment on individual autonomyinvasion of privacy, for example, and monitoringof work.

Public expressio,is of concern and anger overthe inadequacies of our education system arewidespread. We have all read and heard enoughabout illiteracy. But one aspect of concern abouteducation that has not received a great deal ofattentionone that may be even more importantlong term to business managementis aliteracy.

Aliteracyilliteracy among the literatewasthe theme of Professor Allan Bloom's best seller,The Closing of the American Mind. Bloom blamedhigher education for turning out young peoplewho are unable to think or make judgments.Perhaps even more insidiously, the rapid advanceof technology is making more and more educatedpeople less able to understand their world. Harvardphysics professor Gerald Holton foresees a societysplit between a small technological elite and a vastmajority unable to understand enough of scienceand technology to make decisions about their owngovernance.

A parallel factor is accelerated obsolescence. Asmore and more information is gererated, special-

ists and technicians find that the information theypossess becomes more quickly outdated. The morespecific and technical their knowledge is, the morelikely it is that they will have to unlearn in orderto learn again in the future. Unfortunately, hu-man memory, unlike computer memory, is notthat easily erased. Consequently, more and morepeople will find that what they know will interferewith their learning what they need to know.

Several years ago, a data processing (DP) sub-sidiary of one very large corporation discoveredthat its strategy of paying top dollars to hire thebest DP graduates from the elite universities hadbackfired. When the company began using afourth generation computer language, their well-paid COBOL people were unable to switch to it.They had been leap-frogged by a technologicaladvance. The company had to hire new program-mers for the more advanced work, leaving thelower level work .to the COBOL programmers,who were now the equivalent of clerks.

As technological advances continueand evenspeed upit is likely that more and more peoplewith hard-earned skills of the moment will be-come marginally useful as new skills replace them.

Compounding the problem are the inadequa-cies of corporate training. In most companies,training gets short shrift; indeed, at least 80% ofcomputer users in American companies say theyhave received no, slight, or moderate trainingfrom their employers.

More Technological AdvancesAs wide as the human factors gap is now, it will

get wider. To put it plainly, technology is develop-ing faster than people are. The rule of thumb inthe computer business is that the capacity of chipsdoubles every 18 months. Supercomputers areexpected to become more common and moreaccessible in terms of cost. Scientists are nowdeveloping computers that can learn using neuralnetwork techniques.

These advances generate corresponding risks.For example, some analysts believe that the stockmarket's steep fall on "Black Monday," October19, 1987, was at least partially due to the ampli-fying effect of the vast computerized system themarket now depends on. In unsettled or volatiletimes, the system becomes destabilizing ratherthan stabilizing as decisions are automaticallymade even though their base of assumptions isincreasingly false. According to a number ofscien-tists, it is possible that all such large systems aregoverned by the mathematical theory of chaos.This means they may be inherently unpredictable,subject to unanticipated and unexplainable wideswings in behavior.

Continued on page 5

On the Horizon 7 April/May 1995

FROM THE

EDITORJames L. Morrison

Program inEducationalLeadership

The University ofNorth Carolina at

Chapel Hill

On the Horizon, Horizon List,Horizon Home Page: AForerunner of Education inthe 21st Century

few weeks ago we responded to an invita-tion by the National Information Infra-tructure Awards Committee to partici-

pate in a competition for an award designed todemonstrate the capability, utility, and potentialof the "information highway" in encouragingcommunication, collaboration and access to in-formation beyond traditional boundaries. Re-spondents were requested to document how theywere using the information highway (i.e., Inter-

net) and how they were encouraging its use.In preparing our response, it became clear that

the evolution of our service to include a listseryand a World Wide Web (WWW) home page (ourWeb site) provides an example of how educationalprogramming may well occur in the coming de-cade.

Let me explain. Horizon Home Page is an easilyaccessible site containing past issues of On theHorizon, a futures planning database of abstracts,"gems" from the Internet containing discussionstrings by participants on emerging trends andissues that may affect education, as well as "goodstuff' from avant-garde articles in non-mainstreampublications. Anyone with access to the Internet

EDITORIAL

BOARD

James L. MorrThe University of North

Bernard Glassman, Associate EditorPragmatix:Information Design

Blanche Fried Arons, Associate EditorLanguage Associates

Wallace Hannum, Associate EditorUNC-Chapel Hill

Peter BishopUniversity of Houston at Clear Lake

David BrockUniversity of Auckland

Arnold BrownWeiner, Edrich & Brown. Inc.

Dale F. CampbellUniversity of Florida

Andy CarvinThe Corporation for Public Broadcasting

Gordon CaweltiAllience for Curricular Reform

James DatorUniversity of Hawaii

Gregg EdwardsAcademy for Advanced and Strategic Studies

Jonathan FifeERIC Clearinghouse on Higher Education

Lois GraffThe George Washington University

Warren GroffNova University

E. Raymond HackettAuburn University

Richard B. HeydingerI Alliance for Higher Education Strategies

Jeffery HolmesCanadian Bureau for International Education

Bruce Anthony JonesUniversity of Pittsburg

ison, EditorCarolina at Chapel Hill

Ian JukesThe FutureView Group

Asterios G. KefalasUniversity of Georgia

Larry MarcusRowan College

Michael MarienFuture Survey

Graham T.T. MolitorPublic Policy Forecasting, Inc.

Terry O'BanionLeague for Innovation in the Community College

James OgilvyGlobal Business Network

Susan OtterbourgDelman Educational Communications

Tracy LaQuey ParkerCisco Systems, Inc.

Marvin W. PetersonUniversity of Michigan

James G. PtaszyskiWake Forest University

Lewis A. RhodesAmerican Association of School Administrators

Arthur B. ShostakDrexel University

David Pearce SnyderSnyder Family Enterprises

Gerald UnksHigh School Journal

Frans A. Van VughtUniversity of Twente, the Netherlands

George WilkinsonThe Wilkinson Group

Ian H. WilsonWolf Enterprises

On rho Horizon focuses on potential developments and critical trends affecting education. It is published in October/November. December/

January, February/March, April/May, and June /July by the Institute for Academic and Professional Leadership. Schoo fEducatior., The

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. ISSN 1074-8121. Annual cost: individual, $24.50: organizational, $49.50: site license, $124.50.

For more information, contact Professor James L. Morrison, Editor, On the Horatn. or Assistants to the Editor, Jonathan Barker, Adam Bianchi,

K.C. Brown, Sharon Moore, Robbi Pickeral, or Clan Terrill, CBs 3500 Peabody Hai University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599. (9191

962-2517. Internet: Morrison@unc.edu.

The Institute for Academic and Professional Leadership serves educational leaders by providing professional development workshops and

seminars. For more information about the Institute. its facilities, and its services, contact William S. Pate, Program Director, The Friday Center, CB

#1020. UNC-Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599. (9191 962-3276.1nternet: iapl@unc.edu.

April/May 1995 3

3

On the Horizon

Combining theWWW site with anInternet listdemonstrates howschools andcolleges can usethis technology fortheir educationalprogramming.

We intend to hostregular, real-timechat sessions andconferencesbetween leadingfuturists andeducators on theWeb site. Pleasejoin us, andpreview what youand your facultycolleagues will bedoing inclassrooms in the21st century.

can easily browse these materials and contributeto them. Moreover, we use Horizon List to postdraft On the Horizon articles for review, critiqueand comment by Horizon List participants; manyof these responses are then posted in the WWWpages, thereby enabling browsers to benefit fromnot only the articles, but also from the commentsgenerated by the articles. In addition, WWWbrowsers are encouraged to add their own com-ments to articles and to contribute to the futuresplanning database. Since Horizon List partici-pants and Horizon Home Page browsers are spreadaround the globe, the comments we receive enricharticles and discussions.

Combining the WWW site with an Internetlist demonstrates how schools and colleges can usethis technology for their educational program-ming. As Andy Carvin (1995) pointed out in theFebruary/March issue of On the Horizon, anyschool or department could post curricular mate-rials and student papers/projects on a Web site,which could be used/critiqued/revised by stu-

dents and teachers via Internet e-mail on a listserv,just as we do in producing articles for the newslet-ter. Curricular programs on a Web site couldinclude not only graphics and text (which is whatwe have), but also audio and video (which we donot currently have). Within a few months it willbe possible to insert text on the Web throughimproved HTML translators as easily as it is toinsert text in different word processing applica-tions. Such technology lends itself to construc-tionist, active-learning activities, activities thatcapture the imagination and creativity of stu-dents, thereby enhancing the learning process.

In the coming months in the Horizon HomePage, we intend to host regular, real-time chatsessions and conferences between leading futur-ists and educators on the Web site. Please join us,and preview what you and your faculty colleagueswill be doing in classrooms in the 21st century.

(Carvin, A. (1995). The world wide web: Thekiller application for education? On the Horizon,3 (3), 13 -14.]

Accessing Horizon List and Horizon Home PageIf you have access to the Internet, you have arePss to Horizon ListandHorizon Home Page. To becomea participant on Horizon List, send the following message to listserv@uncedu

subscribe horizon cyoutenstaamea, .cyourlastnarneTo access Horizon Home Page, ifyou have a graphics-supporting browser (e.g., Netscape, Mosiac), pointit to the following URL:

http: / /sunsite.unc.edu/horizonIf you do not have such a browser (e.g., you use a modem to dial into your host site), and you do nothave access to aSLIP or equivalent connection, you can browse thetextof HorizonHomePageas Mown

When you log on your e-mail server, at the UNIX prompt (%), type:telnet sunsite.unc.edu

Hit return. You will get another UNIX prompt. Type:

lYnxHit return. You will then be asked for your terminal emulation, which should be set to vt100. Type:

vt100Hit return. You are now in the SunSITE index. Useyour down arrow to get to On the Horizon. Use theright arrow to enter Horizon Home Page.

The directions for navigation within the home page are at the bottom of your screen. You are now inour Web site; browse to your heart's content.

Call for Manuscriptsfor On the Horizon and a special issue of The High School Journal

On the Horizon articles take two forms: abstracts of one or more articles/books/Internet postingsthat have implications for education, or essays on emerging trends or developments that may affectthe fun re of education. A unique feature of abstracts or essays in On the Horizon is that authorsspeculate on the specific implications of "signals of change" in the macroenvironment foreducational leaders. Abstracts and essays are brief (800-1,000 words); our readers are busy peoplewho want get to the bottom line quickly. Send manuscripts to James L. Morrison.

A special issue of The High School Journal on The Future of Secondary Education (October/November 1995) will consist of 10-12 articles of 3,500-5,000 words each. Send a thesis paragraphand brief outline to James L. Morrison by 1 May 1995.

James L. Morrison, Editor, On the Horizon, CB 3500 Peabody Hall, UNC-Chapel Hill, ChapelHill, NC 27599. E-mail: morrison@unc.edu.

On rho Horizon 454

April/May '1995

Informationtechnology willruin our livesunless we comeup with someradical solutions.

Managers cannoteffectively makedecisions withoutfirst transforminginformation intoIntelligence.

What may be aninstinctive fear oftechnologydevelops into thenewestoccupationalillness, techno-stress.

continued from page 2

Another irony is that the unprecedented vol-ume and speed of activity on Black Monday waspossible only because of the existence of thecomputer. Twenty years earlier, the market wouldhave become too clogged at only a fraction of thatvolume. Some observers have also pointed outthat reliance on program trading removed fromthe market what was most needed in a crisissituationhuman judgment.

Information TechnologyFood companies used to get their market re-

ports monthly. In the month-long interval be-tween reports, marketing people could analyzethe data and develop the most appropriate tacticsto improve or maintain distribution patterns andmarket share. When technology enabled them tosee the reports weekly and finally daily, theyfound that there wasn't enough time to processthe information properly. This was exacerbatedby restructuring and downsizing, creating a situ-ation where fewer people had to do much more.

The key point here is not that there was anincrease in information, but that the time factorchanged. As a consequence, the information be-came less manageable.

Author Stan Lee coined the phrase negativeinformation, which he defined as information thatcauses recipients to know less than they did be-fore. "It subtracts from one's store of knowledgeand wisdom," he wrote. "The more negativeinformation one is exposed to, the less one knows."

In the case of the food companies, what hadbeen valuable marketing information becamenegative information because new systems wereinstalled without taking into account humanfactors.

Datamation magazine reports that the amountof information electronic engineers have to learnis already too much and is increasing at an accel-erating pace. If even the most conservative esti-mates of the increases in information by the year2000 are correct, it will be humanly impossible tolearn it all.

We have learned in recent years that of the vastamount ofdata gathered by NASA in space explo-ration in the last two and a half decades, only 10%has been studied by scientists. And only 1% hasbeen analyzed closely. The problem is expected toworsen. When NASA's earth science satellites areall in place (perhaps by 2005), they will senddown one terabyte of information daily. That ismore earth science information in one day thanhas been gathered in all past earth science re-search.

The distinguished philosopher Daniel Dennettgoes so far as to say that information technologywill ruin our lives unless we come up with someradical solutions. As he points out, technology hasmultiplied the availability of information, a corol-lary of which is an increase in the responsibility forknowing the informationand the liability fornot knowing it. There is, as he says, an obligationto know, and that clashes with the human limitson the ability to know. "We drown in the availableinformation," he writes, "unable CO make deci-sions."

Over the last decade, we were told over andover again that we were in the midst of an informa-tion revolution. But true revolution requires morethan just technology. It requires a correspondingimprovement in the ability of people to match thecapabilities of the technology, and that has notcome about.

What has happened? People have accommo-dated to the increases in the flow and magnitudeof information. One such accommodation is whathas been called nuggetizingpeople boil down thevast amount of information to concepts or state-ments that can be easily grasped and absorbed.Thus, information is packaged; the more easilyaccessible the package the better. The result is akind of brittle world in which all room for doubt,debate, speculation and analysis is displaced bysimple statement nuggets.

This has powerful negative impacts on deci-sion-making. Managers fearful of being held ac-countable will practice defensive management,just as doctors afraid of malpractice suits willpractice defensive medicine. Growing concernabout data security contributes to the institutionalsclerosis by encouraging a desire to hoard ratherthan distribute information.

The fact is, information (or data) is a rawmaterial. Like iron, it niust be transformed intosomething else before it can be used. Just as anautomobile manufacturer cannot make a car with-out first changing iron to steel, managers cannoteffectively make decisions without first transform-ing information into intelligence. The technologywe now have is, in the main, information technol-ogy, not intelligence technology. Improvementsin the technology, again, are largely in its ability togather, store and catalog information.

The cri de coeur from managers is "give us whatwe need to do our jobs better." Instead, they areinundated with data, and as a consequence theydawdle or delay, or they make decisions that theythemselves are increasingly dubious about. Mo-rale plummets, and what may be an instinctive fearof technology develops into the newest occupa-tional illness, techno-stress.

April/May 1995 5

55On the Horizon

The relentlessadvance oftechnologicaldevelopment putseven highlyeducated peopleat risk ofbecoming to someextent functionallyilliterate.

SOCIALLois Graf

School of Businessand Public

ManagementThe George

Washington University

The overwhelming problem with technologyis that it enables us to gather far more informationthan we as humans are capable of processing,causing an information overload But that termmay be misleading, because it implies that whatwe need is less information. What we really need,however, is better informationthat is, informa-tion that is both more useful and more usable. Therevolution needs to pause for peopleto allowthe human factor to regain control and focus.

ImplicationsGeorge Kuper, head of the Manufacturing

Studies Board of the National Academy of Sci-ences, says that managers must face up to the"social revolution" required to integrate technol-ogy effectively into the workplace. A new kind ofsocio-technical planning is needed to rearrangethe way work is organized and managed so as toachieve a functioning and productive synthesis ofpeople and technology in the workplace.

There is a revolution now happening in theworkplace. CEOs can disintermediate the variouslevels of management between them and rzw data,thereby rendering middle managers superfluousand even some senior managers. When secretariesand clerical workers are more adept at usingmachines than are their bosses, control passes tounderlings, further exacerbating the fears andinsecurities of managers. People and machinesca.n be complementary. Merging them requiresrecognizing and accommodating human factors.

Many managers speak openly and frequentlyof their disappointment with technology. In liv-ing up to its potential, technology has exceededhuman capacities to harness it.

The gist of their complaints is that the technol-ogy has not lived up to its potential. But that is notthe problem. The technology has lived up to itspotential; indeed, it has exceeded expectations.The real problem is that we did not anticipate, andstill do not fully appreciate, human factors.

In the management of organizations there isnot yet a satisfactory substitute for human intelli-gence. It is necessary to examine what technologycan do to provide support for that crucial de-mentor how it might interfere. Only then canwe make the appropriate purchase and proper useof technology.

Gerald Holton warns that the relentless ad-vance of technological development puts evenhighly educated people at risk of becoming tosome extent functionally illiterate. Holton callsthis a "diminution of national possibility." Orga-nizationally, it can mean management that iseither impotent or increasingly irrational.

We may have lost the current generation ofmanagers, struggling to catch-up and hold on totheir rung on the management ladder. The centralrole for higher education is to make available boththe understanding and the resources that willbetter equip the next generation of managers todeal effectively with the merging of technologicaland human factors.

Are Private Schools theAnswer?

1n an op-ed article in a recent Washington Post,Milton Friedman argues that the school sys-tem is much worse today than it was 30 years

ago and places part of the blame for that at the feetof growing centralization and increased strengthof teachers' unions. According to Friedman,centralization has created large private fiefdomsrun by administrators and union officials, and thishampers the "radical reconstruction" required bythe school systems.

The political and technological revolutions ofthe past few decades have opened the doors toglobal competition and opportunity for manypeople around the world. These twin revolutionshave placed a premium on education and widenedthe wage differential between the educated andthe uneducated, something Friedman considers a"recipe for social disaster." These trends make theoverhaul of the educational system in the United

States ever more urgent, as it is the only forcecapable of offsetting the trend toward stratifica-tion.

The way to accomplish this overhaul, saysFriedman, is through privatization supported bya voucher system, letting the marketplace createthe kind of creative, responsive school systemsthat we need.

[Friedman, M. (1995, February 19). Publicschools: Make them private. The WashingtonPost, C7.]

ImplicationsThe first question to ask is whether we need a

radical restructuring. Schools are already in seri-ous trouble, and technology is ultimately going tohave a profound effect on education. The changesin the past few years alone and the phenomenalgrowth in the use of the Internet indicate the needfor change. Corporate America, with greate fundsand greater freedom, but certainly no greaterstake, continues to experiment with re-creating

On the Horizon 6

56

April/May 1995

Corporate Americacontinues toexperiment withre-creating and re-engineering. Caneducators affordto do less?

TECHNOIDGICAL

William H. GravesOffice of Information

TechnologyThe University of

North Carolina atChapel Hill

Educationexecutives will notbe excused forlong if they do slotdevelop a plan tonavigate thetransition fromtoday's teachinginfrastructure totomorrow'slearninginfrastructure.

and re-engineering. Can educators afford to doless?

Is privatization the way to achieve radicalrestructuring? Private organizations not subjectto the same degree of regulation can be moreselective in their student body and have incentiveto be more creative in order to capture a competi-tive share of the market.

The public system has provided education forchildren who cannot be educated in the standardclassroom, at the public's expense. The publicsystem has provided education for children withlearning disabilities or physical disabilities eventhough educating them has been a special chal-lenge and certainly not an economical venture.The public system has accepted and educated

hard-to-handle children when the private schoolsexpelled them.

Also, the public school system has a mission tobe a strong force in creating and sustaining the"melting pot" and in intervening to ensure diver-sity and equal access. Privatization might result inspecial schools for special populations leading toincreased stratification along ethnic and/or reli-gious and/or economic lines.

Education for all is mandated; educators mustcaution citizens not to move too quickly. Changewe must, certainly technologically, but we mustengage in a thoughtful discussion of the issuesinvolved in privatization before making that deci-sion via the ballot box. The American democraticsystem may be hanging in the balance.

Dark Leadership?Network cognoscenti often speak of"darkfiber" when referring to fiber-optic ca-bling that has not been lit up with the

digital electron s necessary to transmit data. Isedu( Ition suffering from "dark leadership?" Doexecutive leaders in education understand theeducational and social implications of rapidlychanging, increasingly affordable digital network-ing and multimedia technologies? Do they viewinformation technology negatively as an addi-tional cost or strategically as a tool to enable theeducational change expected by the public?

Education executives are busy and cannot beexpected to track rapid changes in technology,but they will not be excused for long if they do notdevelop a plan to navigate the transition fromtoday's teaching infrastructure to tomorrow'slearning infrastructure. We should expect educa-tion ,:x.ecutives to understand that informationtechnology is the most viable vehicle available fornavigating the transition. It is a tool for address-ing issues of educational quality, educationalaccess, and instructional costs.

The public and the body politic at all levels areworried about the spiraling price of educationand the value it delivers. The heft of education'scosts lies in instructional programs, mostly ininstructional personnel. Attempts to optimizethe productivity of instructional investmentswithin today's labor-intensive contact-hour para-digm are likely to abridge quality by increasing

i class sizes. Not even distance education can re-solve the quality/quantity trade-off as long as theCarnegie Unit is tightly linked to the contacthour, although it can increase access to educationwhile requiring less capital investment than newbricks and mortar. The contact-hour model de-livered from any distance is labor intensive.

A primary goal of teacher/student contactshould be to guide the student in a way thatinspires exploratory self-study. The new tech-nologies can mitigate some of the constraints oftime, place, and scheduling that hamper this idealmentor/apprentice relationship. But overlayingtechnology on the contact-hour model of instruc-tion is costly. We must utilize the flexibilitiesinherent in technology to discover models ofinstruction appropriate to the emerging knowl-edge economy.

We must understand the differences betweencomputer networks and video networks if we areto experiment usefully on the future of instructionin the context of the growing demand for account-ability. The primary difference between computernetworking and video networking is not videoitself. After all, we can capture, store, and retrievevideo in digital form across computer networks"video on demand." The critical difference is thata real-time video network, as typically deployedfor distance education, is time-depender t, withinterconnections mediated by humans. The re-sources for a telecast or teleconference are scarceand must be negotiated and scheduled, and thetime-dependent interconnections among the par-ticipating sites must be managed by a technician.In contrast, a student at a computer connected tothe Internet can access any available resources onthe Internet any time, and this access is mediatedby computers without additional human, inter-vention. Computer networks scale much morereadily than do (real-time) video networks. Thisexpensive difference between computer and videonetworks will persist even after today's analogvideo technologies are replaced by digital tech-nologies in a few short years.

We must !earn how to create a distributedlearning environment combining the best featuresof traditional instructional models, whether class-

April/May 1995 7 On the Horizon

The future ofschools is at stakeas we reflect onthe implications ofinformationtechnology for theschools of thefuture.

ECONOMICA. G. Ke alas

Department ofManagement

The University ofGeorgia

room-based or real-time video-based, with thenew asynchronous opportunities for sharing andcommunicating enabled by educational networksand their connections to the Internet. "Distrib-uted learning environment" implies a shared re-sponsibility for student learning among manydifferent institutions. No one school has the re-sources to create a distributed learning environ-ment solely for its students. Resources will have tobe pooled and new funding and accounting mod-els created if today's school-centered model ofeducation is to shift toward a society-centeredmodel. We must work together to provide "learn-ing on demand" while retaining valuable localdistinctions among educational organizations.

There is little risk in trying to find sharedtechnology-enabled solutions to important na-tional educational problems, such as students'weak command of basic mathematical skills. Thisweakness erects barriers to further study in manyother quantitative fields and depresses retentionand graduation rates. This is but one example ofa national educational problem in which collec-tive executive leadership would be welcomed bythe associated content experts even if the executiveleadership insisted on the economic viability (pro-ductivity) of the solution.

Information technology provides new leveragefor education's most important asset: its intellec-tual capital. We must learn how the new technolo-gies can enhance the social contract betweenlearner, mentor, and school. How can the bondbetween a Leacher and a student be strengthenedwhile utilizing the disintermediating potential ofinformation technologies to increase instructionalproductivity? What are the key civilizing factors inthe classroom experience? How can we applytechnology productively to the acquisition of spe-cific content while strengthening the socializationthat requires student/teacher and student/student

contact? Which students need to be at school, towhat extent, and when? Which aspects of learningcan best be mediated directly by the teacher andwhich can be mediated indirectly by interactivetechnologies?

The focus of the transition from a school-centered teaching infrastructure to a national learn-ing infrastructure is shifting away from the elec-tronic medium itself and onto its mind - bogglingcapacity to amplify the human experiencethemessage. Quality education and quality entertain-ment share one characteristic. Both should beengaging. Only education executives can identifythe fiscal and human resources needed to supporta national information infrastructure that servesnational educational goals as well as it serves thecommercial quest for compelling entertainment.Although external support can seed innovationand change, it typically is conditioned by a re-quirement that the school assume any and allattendant long-term support. We cannot counton external support for on-going instructionalprograms.

It will be essential to plan and manage thefuture in ways that secure investments in informa-tion technology and optimize them to the benefitof the collective educational mission. It will notsuffice to view information technology as a bud-getary black hole to be fed periodically to thebenefit of the technological cognoscenti. Navigat-ing the traditionally slow moving waters of educa-tional change in the face of the societal wave ofexpectations surrounding the evolving nationalinformation infrastructure, and in my state theopening of the North Carolina Information High-way, will require deft leadership empowered byknowledgeable and supportive governing bodies.

The future of our schools is at stake as wereflect on the implications of information tech-nology for the schools of the future.

The New InternationalFinancial (Dis)Order

Contemplating the 1995 dollar problemtakes the seasoned traveler back in timeto 1972. European countries saw the

U.S. engagement in the Viet Nam war as a signalfor the dollar's collapse, and regardless of ourallies' efforts to help, eventually President RichardNixon had to close the "gold window," the GoldStandard. The dollar became just another cur-rency.

A period of fluctuation followed. The dollarwas up. The dollar was down. The experts said thedollar should be even lower. Business peoplestarted pressuring President Ronald Reagan to

"lower the dollar." "How can we export with sucha high dollar?" In August 1984 the Group ofSeven met at the Plaza Hotel in New York anddecided to lower the dollar. Since then, the dollarhas continued to slide more and more every day.

Eleven years later, we seem still to be reelingfrom that decision to lower the dollar. But why?Why is it that a country with the best economicfundamentals (growth in its GDP, low inflation,rising exports, favorable interest-rate differentials,first in global competitiveness) must beg its friendsto help support its currency? If a weak dollar wasin our national interest in 1984, why does the U.S.treasury secretary, Mr. Robert Rubin, broadcastto the world that "a strong dollar is in our nationalinterest"?

On the Horizon 8 April/May 1995

5

We are directlyresponsive to theebbs and flows ofthe internationalinvestments of ourtrading partners,and at present,these have notbalanced out inour favor.

While in the past,"wise" treasurymen around theworld made thedecisions of whenand when not tointervene, todaytraders canliterally upset theentire course ofinternationaltransactionsthrough themanipulation ofderivatives.

ENVIRONMENTAL

Why does the dollar have this plight? Somesayit is caused by the shifting of the supply anddemand curves. Americans demand too manyDM and Yen while the Germans and the Japanesedemand too few dollars. Why do these supply anddemand curves shift the way they do?

Carnegie-Mellon University's political econo-mist Allan H. Meltzer, a respected monetarist,says that "the dollar's weakness is concentratedagainst the Japanese yen and the German mark.Weighted against all the U.S.'s trading partners,the dollar has been roughly stable since 1988.Recently it has been strengthening against theU.S.'s two largest trading partners, Canada andMexico" (Banks, 1995, p. 3')).

As with all exchanges, the price one partner iswilling to pay is closely related to his or herstrengths and weakness and to the other partner'sstrengths and weaknesses. Since 1990, the U.S.has experienced a healthy growth in its economicactivity. Growth means more jobs, more pay-checks, more consumption and more imports. Atthe same time, the sliding dollar made U.S. goodscheaper overseas. So more exports meant moreimports and more demand for dollars. This situ-ation did not cause a decline in the balance of thetrade deficit, however, because the increase in thevalue of exports was not enough to offset theincrease in the value of imports. The U.S. wasimporting more and was paying more.

Meanwhile, the Japanese were experiencinglow growth rates, which put tremendous pressureon the government to create jobs. So they toostarted funneling money to the domestic market,siphoning it off from the international market,resulting in an increase in the supply of dollarsthat led to a decline of its price. We are, in otherwords, directly responsive to the ebbs and flows ofthe international investments (dour trading part-ners, and at present, these have not balanced outin our favor.

Another totally unanticipated blow to oureconomy comes fr,'-n the investment phenom-enon known as derivatives. In the world of mod-

ern technology, on any given day, some one tril-lion dollars are exchanged in derivatives trading.While in the past, "wise" treasurymen around theworld made the decisions of when and when notto intervene, today traders can literally upset theentire course of international transactions throughthe manipulation of derivatives. Originally, thevariables underlying derivative securities were usu-ally stock prices, stock indices, interest rates, ex-change rates and commodity prices. Today, theyare based on trivialities too insulting to contem-plate or mention on these pages.

There is no answer as to how these economicproblems are going to be resolvednot only forthe United States, but in fact, for the world. All ofthe foregoing seems to be delivering the samemessage to all the investors: be super-alert, super-cautious, super-wise. And perhaps most impor-tant, be super-tuned in.

[Banks, H. (1995, March 27). Greenspan andGreenbacks. Forbes, 391

ImplicationsOn a personal level, we must guard against

possible mismanagement of pension funds andask for explanations of new or suspect invest-ments. Orange County, California, residents real-ized too late the wisdom of the old saying: Ifsomething sounds too good to be true, it mostlikely is. In fact, that's good advice for all ofus. Inthe keystroke era of investment, many non-Or-ange County residents may also find their moneytied in to that disaster.

Dollars up, dollars down, and internationalbalances of trade may not turn-on our students.Theories and historic overviews tend to becomeboring. But as edu:ators, we should find theexplosive quality of keystrokes a remarkable toolto excite and involve students. The power of thekeystroke may never again be so well illustrated toyoung and eager entrants to the world of globaleconomy. We believe that is one, and perhaps theonly, positive phase of the derivative phenom-enon.

The Nature of Nature and ofDouglas J. the Environment

Crawford-BrownInstitute for

EnvironmentalStudies

The University ofNorth Carolinaat Chapel Hill

distinction between "environment" and"nature" that may seem like hair-splittingcan have important implications for envi-

ronmental education. Nature i much larger th,tnthe environment. Not only does it include all the"things" in the world, it may also include some-thing like their essence or their basic character.

To be part of human beings' environment,however, nature must affect our development

(such as our health). Traditionally, environmentalstudies have not required studying the basic char-acter of things in the world, unless that characterwere in some way responsible for the ability ofnature to affect the development of organisms.

Why is the distinction important?As environmental science and environmental

studies programs spring up at all levels of educa-tion, the natural first question is "what shall weteach"? If this is answered by an environmentalscientist, the focus will be on how the world is put

April/May 1995 9 On the HorizonJ3

Making thedistinctionbetween natureand environment issorely needed ineducation.

POLITICALLaurence Marcus

Program inEducationalLeadership

Rowan College

together (what are the parts of the environment?),the laws that control relationships between theseparts (how do the parts interact to cause material andenergy to flow through the environment?), and therole of the environment in affecting the develop-ment of organisms (in what way is this flow ofmaterial and energy part of an organism's environ-ment?). Since human society is part of this flow ofmaterial and energy in the larger world, the studyof society might also be included as part of envi-ronmental science, at least in the form of some-thing like human ecology or industrial metabo-lism (National Academy of Engineering, 1994).

Environmental studies programs are based ona broader interpretation of environmental issuesand of the role of human society in those issues.The answer to the question "what shall we teach?"is likely to be: "whatever is needed to understandhow environmental problems arise and how we areto respond to them." This understanding includesthe motives behind the actions we take as humans,which in turn affects the way humans interactwith the larger environment. To understand ourrole in environmental problems, we must under-stand our own minds.

So where does the study of naturefit into this?

Neil Evernden (1992) argues that the idea ofnature has gone through historical change. Beforethe Renaissance (1300-1600), "nature" was ev-erything outside of humans. To study nature wasto study the makeup of the world and the lawscontrolling that world (see Peter Bowler, 1992).This sounds quite a bit like what we would callenvironmental science today, although withoutthe additional requirement that nature must af-fect human development.

With the late Middle Ages (c. 14th century)came a shift in the idea of nature. Nature became

involved with human goals and values; humansbegan to value nature as an "essence" to be re-spected and protected. Its essence became a sourceof inspiration in life. Why protect a forest? Be-cause it is wilderness; a life spent conforming tothe essence of wilderness is a virtuous life. Fromthis perspective, studying nature helps us to un-derstand how our p'rsonal values and choices inlife should be formed. This is very different fromthinking of nature as simply a set of "things"controlled by physical laws. Now, environmentalstudies may indeed rethink its focus, and broadenits scope to include nature in all its complexdefinitions.

[Bowler, P. (1992). The Norton history of theenvironmental sciences. News York: W. W. Norton& Co.; Evernden, N. (1992). The social creation ofnature. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins UniversityPress; National Academy of Engineering. (1994).The greening of industrial ecosystems. Washington,D.C.: National Academy Press.]

implicationsMaking the distinction between nature and

environment is sorely needed in education. Na-ture has many subtly different meanings. Living aswe do after the Renaissance, we must acknowl-edge that nature now includes aspects of the worldcloser to the realm of the humanities, even ifenvironment does not. The idea of nature isemotionally charged, and this emotional relation-ship must be factored into environmental studies.In the present area, we have an additional layerwith which to copethe effect of technologicaladvances upon nature and the environment. En-vironmental studies with a view towards both theenvironment and nature is of the utmost impor-tance and may help guide the course of humandevelopment.

Rethinking Governmentpeter Drucker, writing in The AtlanticMonthly, argues that the U.S. governmentis out of date. He posits that no president

and neither political parry is responsible for thedisarray; the government has simply outgrownthe structure, the policies and the rules that weredesigned for it. He believes that current efforts toreform existing programs and policies are misdi-rected. Something different, he argues, is neces-sary.

The strategy currently in vogue for govern-mentbudget slashingis doomed to failure.

Drucker cites the examples of IBM, Sears, andGeneral Motors, which painfully learned thatletting staff go and undertaking reorganizationsproved not be the cure-all that they had hoped.Using a medical metaphor, Drucker notes thatamputation before diagnosis is almost always acasualty. Organizations that have maintained theirsuccess during the turbulence of recent yearsstarted out by identifying their most productivecomponents and setting out a plan to strengthen,promote and expand these components. A similarapproach should be taken by government, Druckerargues. "Every agency, every policy, every activity,

On the Horizon 10 April/May 1995

The movementtoward theremoval ofnational rules tofavor localcontrols mayprove disastrous.

Growing societalfragmentation andthecommunicationstechnology blitzhave made itpossible for thebest organized andbest financedinterest groups tosimulate anational mandatein support of theirnarrow interests.

should be confronted with these questions: "Whatis your mission?" "Is it still the right mission?" "Isit still worth doing?" "If we were not already doingthis, would we now go into it?"

Drucker advocates a policy of governmentalrethinking. Asking appropriate questions acrossour government would help us rethink firstwhether there is any need for such agencies asveterans hospitals, when there is no shortage ofspace in better equipped and better staffed hospi-tals in most locations, or a Department of Agri-culture, which was very important during ouragrarian period. Drucker says if the peace-timemilitary aid we are supplying and bankrolling fornations under no external threat has outlived itsneed, the program should be abandoned. Similartreatment should be accorded to programs thathave not been able to accomplish their goals, likethe Wa, on Drugs, which has failed to curb illegaldrug use and has resulted in increased streetcrime, as enforcement efforts drive up the price ofthe drugs.

Rethinking also needs to diagnose the extentto which programs begun years ago can be alteredto meet current challenges (welfare, for example).Rethinking may involve experimentation. Thus,in health care, we might pilot managed competi-tion in one state and a single-payer approach inanother.

How we rethink government is also an issue.Robert Wright, in a recent Time cover story,discusses the application of electronic technolo-gies to the political process. "Electronic democ-racy" has taken hold to such an extent that what-ever the issue of the day, the public (particularlythe specially interested segments) jams the phonelines with faxes, calls, and e-mail to their electedrepresentatives.

It is debatable whether such input is trulyrepresentative. Wright cites the tremendous in-fluence that special interests have gained via elec-tronics. He notes, for example, that AARP sendsout 50 million pieces of mail per year; Congress,though aware of the pre -planned pressure-sce-nario, does not ignore whit i; hears from AARP'ssenior citizens. A mind-boggling example is alsoprovided by the lobbying group of Bonner andAssociates, which, according to Wright, can or-chestrate the delivery of 10,000 faxes per night forits clients. Organized by congressional district, itsdatabases of supporters of the causes that it is paidto advocate permit the firm to quickly mobilizehundreds of phone calls to Congress on any issue,where they may provide a swing vote. Radio talkshow hosts also have huge sway over their listenersand are not shy when it comes to suggestingpositions for listeners to advocate.

Organized electronic response instantaneouslypressures elected leaders into going the way of the

most noise. Our Republic was designed in abalanced fashion, so that members of the Houseof Representatives would be in tune with thecurrent wishes of the people (by virtue of receiv-ing their authority from biennial elections held ona district basis), and so that senators (elected every6 years) would take a broader and longer-termview.

Syndicated columnist David Broder joinsWright in being wary of the electronic democracytrend. 'Where once political parties served broad-based coalitions ofdiverse groups, "that mobiliza-tion has fallen into the hands of private interests,pursuing very specific and narrow agendas." Agen-das ofthese private, well-financed interests, Broderbelieves, "aim at payments to the poor who are themost vulnerable items in the government budget,while tax cuts for the wealthy command [their]support." Further, Broder laments that too manybombard the public and those in elective officewith half-truths, untruths, and baseless allega-tions.

[Broder, D. (1995, January 25). Electronicdemocracy imperils just government. NewarkStar Ledger, p 18; Drucker, P. (1995, February).Really reinventing government, The AtlanticMonthly, 275 (2), 19-61; Wright, R. (1995, Janu-ary 2.). Hyper-democracy: Washington isn't dan-gerously disconnected from the people; the troublemay be it's too plugged in. Time, 145 (3), 15-21.]

ImplicationsWe appear to be forging ahead to implement

currently popular notions (for example, a Consti-tutional requirement for a balanced federal bud-get, or "federal mandate, federal pay" principle)without considering the cascading effect that maybe felt across our national government and downinto state and local governments. Similarly, themovement toward the removal of national rulesto favor local controls may prove disastrous. AsPeter Drucker admonishes Americans, we need toreconsider in a thoughtful way whatand atwhich level(s) in our federal systemgovern-ment should be revised in order to meet itsConstitutional responsibilities. The questioningand rethinking exercise that Drucker suggestsshould lead us to serious debate about the role ofgovernment and its division of responsibilitiesamong the levels in the federal system.

However, as Wright and Broder caution, grow-ing societal fragmentation and the communica-tions technology blitz have made it possible forthe best organized and best financed interestgroups to simulate a national mandate in supportof their narrow interests. In the last issue of On theHorizon, we spoke of an approach used in Den-mark to increase public understanding of pressing

April /May 1995 11

fitOn the Horizon

COMMENTARYStep en

Senior ProgramOfficer for Interactive

TechnologiesThe Annenberg/CPB

Projects

Today'stechnologies areincreasing thepossibilities foraugmenting the!earning/teachingprocess withexperientiallearning,collaborativeteaching, and rich,frequent feedback.

policy issues. The Internet and other electronicmeans can also improve the national dialogue.Colleges, universities, and public schools couldplay an important role in this process by initiatingyear-long "great issues" colloquia in which schol-ars would present divergent views as the basis fordiscussions both on-campus and off. The schol-

arly panel, reacting to the on-going interchangewith and among its audience, would have as itsgoal the development of a consensus position onparticular topics. Such dialogues would provide abalance against the special interests and bring uscloser to a national consensus on what govern-ment should be doing in the 21st century.

Using Technology toTransform Higher Education

arge class introductory courses in collegesand universities are usually taught as lec-tures, sometimes complemented with small

"recitation" sections, in order to solve the TripleChallenge: (a) how to achieve satisfactory educa-tional outcomes, (b) for an adequate number ofpeople, (c) at an acceptable cost.

Lecture courses depend on books, laboratories,studios, and faculty members themselves. Lec-tures, unfortunately, are not very effective; thematerial that is "covered" is often not learned.Research shows that many students become moreconfused rather than more informed by the lec-ture, although they disguise this with "under-standing" faces and adequate test scores.

Today's technologies are increasing the possi-bilities for augmenting the learning/teaching pro-cess with experiential learning, collaborative teach-ing, and rich, frequent feedback. More and morestudents have relatively easy access to computing,video, and telecommunications, and more andmore faculty have become more technologicallyskilled. Here are three examples of the new ap-proach:

The Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) hasvirtually eliminated lectures from its giant intro-ductory physics and calculus courses. For example"Physics i01" has eliminated the traditional mu-

, tine: two lectures, two recitations and two labs aweek (six hours). Instead RPI teaches two two-hour "studios" a week, each with 40-60 students,who work, often in groups, on simulated and realexperiments, using software called the Compre-hensive Unified Physics Learning Environment(CUPLE). CUPLE also provides a web of multi-media instructional materials. This software,funded by the Annenberg/CPB Project, IBM,and NSF, is available from Physics AcademicSoftware, an offshoot of the American Institute ofPhysics. Similar reforms are under way in otherfreshman year required courses. Students gaincontrol over the time, place and pace of instruc-tion. Faculty ale happy because of dramatic im-provements both in students' true understandingand in student ratings of the faculty's teaching.

For more information about physics, calculus andthe other courses that are being restructured,contact Jack Wilson (wilsoj@rpi.edu; 518 276-4853 ).

Introductory psychology at the Indiana Uni-versity Purdue University at Indianapolis (IUPUI)enrolls 1,300 students. Of the students taking thecourse, a third were failing. IUPUI put collabora-tive learning to work by starting small classes andcentralizing assessment. Faculty section leadersare not permitted to lecture; their role is to fosterlearning, and they each have wide latitude abouthow to do that. Videotaped lectures were madeavailable in campus and city libraries and forrental. Testing was computerized, to be taken anytime during a week in one of two computerclusters. Study options now include differingamounts of class time.

The course, while influenced by the Annenberg/CPB-funded New Pathways project, was createdsolely with departmental funds plus a loan fromthe central administration, to be repaid by sav-ings. Student satisfaction ratings are up sharply(from 23% to 45%). Attendance is up and gradesare up. Contact person for the course is ProfessorJohn Kremer (jkremer@indyvax.iupui.edu; 317-274- 6760).

The Odyssey Project at Arizona State Univer-sity has transformed an introductory humanitiescourse that enrolls 130+ students per section froma traditional "sleep and slides" survey course to acomputer-based, collaborative exploration by stu-dent teams. The information base for the coursewas computerized and placed into a hypertextknowledge base. The underlying hypertext pro-gram includes a telecommunications component,with e-mail and access to the Internet. Studentswork in teams, become "experts" in particularareas, and then teach their fellow group members(in class) their piece of the information (a "jigsawstructure" in cooperative learning jargon). Classtime is spent on processing, analyzing, and syn-thesizing information for individually produced,written essays. The first semester that Odyssey wasused, the average attrition rate dropped from 30-35% to 10%. Contact is Paul Privateer(acpcp@asuvm. in re. asu. cdu).

Three institutions, three introductory courses,

On the Horizon 12 April/May 1998

METHODS &

TECHNIQUESMartin Orlowski

Institutional ResearchOakland Commun;ty

College

The adoption of anenvironmentalscanning processestablished asystem forintegrating thisinformation intothe planningprocess.

OCC's goal is tomake scanning anintegral part of thestrategic planningcycle, ensuringthat the College ismaking decisionsbased on carefulconsideration ofexternal trends.

three slightly different approaches restructuringthe foundation of higher education. The com-mon elements are fostering more student respon-

sibility for learning while giving students materialmore worth learning.

Environmental Scanning atOakland Community College

Five-campus Oakland Community College(OCC) serves an area of almost 900 squaremiles. The largest community college in

Michigan (annual enrollment 53,000), the Col-lege employs 300 full-time faculty.

In 1991, OCC established a formal environ-mental scanning process, initially focused on sixareas: educatimal trends, occupational trends,enrollment, economy, resources and regulations,and external opinion. Seventy faculty and staffmembers participated in the process that resultedin a summary report, which outlined trends andtheir implications for the College.

During the first two years of the program, thescanning process was embraced with great enthu-siasm. In response to information gathered duringthe scanning process, the College developed a setof core competencies that are being integratedinto all areas of the curriculum. Prior to 1991,strategic and academic planning had taken placewithout formalized channels for the inclusion ofexternal information. The adoption of an envi-ronmental scanning process established a systemfor integrating this information into the planningprocess.

Enthusiasm for scanning, originally high, be-gan to decline after the first two years. The reasonsvaried. The complex scanning committee struc-ture was too cumbersome; many committee mem-bers were also involved in other initiatives; asignificant portion of the college community hadno involvement in planning. Furthermore, as theinstitutional emphasis shifted to the implementa-tion of the strategic plan, scanning activities be-came less prominent, attendance at committeemeetings decreased, and abstracting activityslowed. Finally, those involved in identifying trendsand implications felt that they were receiving novalidation from the external community.

In addressing these problems, it became appar-ent that if the environmental scanning process isto function effectively, those involved must re-main responsive to not only the external factorsthatshape trends, but also to the interorganizationalchanges that impact the scanning process. Conse-quently, we restructured the process. The sixscanning committees have been replaced with onecore scanning group consisting of 12 OCC facultyand staff, focusing on macro-thinking and futur-

istic vision. However, the reduced committee sizeinhibits broad-based participation across the col-lege community. The College hopes to addressthis issue through the establishment of a regularscanning publication and the maintenance of afeedback loop. Additionally, the scanning com-mittee will sponsor a series of community sympo-sia, open to all OCC faculty, staff, and students,on emerging trends that could affect the College.

Relying in part on graduate student employeesto abstract previously identified materials relievescommittee members of the time-consuming re-sponsibility not only of reading but also of sum-marizing journal and newspaper articles for re-view. One faculty member, not on the scanningcommittee, teaches upper-level English studentsto write abstracts.

As part of the college-wide effort to enhancethe quality and accessibility of information con-tributing to the processes of planning for OCC'sfuture, the annual scanning report summarizingtrends and implications has been changed to a tri-annual newsletter, Impact, which also includesgeneral information on the importance of scan-ning, and the ways in which the College commu-nity can utilize this information.

In addition, tn. n° scanning committee has beenmade a permanent part of the college's councilstructure; thus the trends and implications identi-fied in the scanning process now go directly to theappropriate councils for action. Furthermore, thecommittee now works with the College's Centerfor Social Research in sponsoring local, regional,and statewide symposia focusing on emergingtrends and issues.

It is still too early to determine the effects ofthese changes. OCC's goal is to make scanninganintegral part of the strategic planning cycle, ensur-ing that the College is making decisions based oncareful consideration of external trends. Scanningactivities will continue during the off -year of thebiennial planning cycle, allowing the College toidentify new issues each year while maintaining itsfocus on long-term trends. These initiatives dem-onstrate the College's responsiveness to the needsof the external community, thus supporting acritical element oFthe institutional vision. Finally,through the regular publication and distributionof Impact, scanning is a vehicle for improvingcommunication among and between all membersof the OCC community.

April/May 1995 13

63On the Horizon

ToolsBernard Glassman

Pragmatix:InformationDesign

It has becomedifficult to imaginegoing through anordinary businessday, or businesstrip, withoutMagic Cap or asubsequentgeneration ofMagic Cap.

Magic Cap is acommunicationenvironment.

Magic Cap (and Gown)several issues back, I wrote about the newventure that spun off of Apple to develop atechnology for the "personal intelligentcom-

municator." The company is called General Magic.The technology has two aspectsthe Magic Capsoftware/hardware platform, including the easiestinterface I've ever encountered; and a program-ming language for intelligent information agentscalled Telescript.

Through the generosity of General Magic, I'vebeen living with a loaner unit of the first MagicCap device, a paperback-sized version called theSony Magic Link.

My evaluation? After a couple of months, it hasbecome difficult to imagine going through anordinary business day, or business trip, without itor a subsequent generation of it. What is the "it"that I have become so habituated to?

Magic Cap is a number of immediately famil-iar settings, or "scenes" on the screen. The mostfrequently visited scene is a clock on the wall, in-and outboxes, a blank postcard, a desk, a phone,a desk calendar, a Rolodex-like file, and a filecabinet. The clock tells the time, it's not just anicon. The inbox and outbox show you if you havemessages that you've not dealt with. Any unfin-ished communications reside on the desk as un-sealed, but named, envelopes, waiting to bedropped in the out-box. The desk has two drawersthat open when you touch them, one with variouskinds of stationery (you can create your ownvariations, such as personal and business) and adrawer with a wallet, a ledger, a notebook, acalculator and a remote control device.

The wallet is Pocket Quicken, by Intuit. Touchit with a finger-tip or the special stylus, and itopens to reveal a check, a dollar bill and a coupleof credit cards. You can set up as many accountsas you need, assign expenses and income as theyoccur, and, if you're careful, you'll have the mostcomplete information you could hope for whentax time rolls around. Of course it can be synchro-nized with Quicken on your desktop computer,with the proper connection kit.

The ledger is PenCell, a great little spreadsheetwith a ton of familiar functions and a set of handytemplates, including an expense report that al-ready knows what day it is, a register for grades, abill splitter that can help you determine who oweswhat at lunch (it'll even figure the tip) and theusual array of loan and mortgage calculators. Ofcourse, you can easily start with a blank spread-sheet if you prefer.

It is important to bear in mind that Quickenand PenCell are programmed and sold by inde-pendent software developers that General Magic

has licensed to write for Magic Cap and that Sonyhas paid for the right to include with the Sonydevice. Magic Cap is the environment, the indi-vidual tools are g' nerally by someone else, and thewhole combination resides on hardware producedand marketed by yet another company, in thiscaseSony. (So, can you guess what the remote controlis for? Does it help if I tell you that there is aninfrared beamer along one edge of the Sony MagicLink? Unfortunately, I don't happen to own anyremote-controllable Sony products, but if I did Icould turn on my CD player while calculating theyield on my CDs.)

Most important, though, Magic Cap is a com-munication environment. General Magic has stipu-lated that any device made to use Magic Cap mustbe capable ofbeing connected to a phone line. TheSony I'm using has a standard phone jack, andships with about three feet of phone cord, whichlinks me to yet another part of the incrediblebusiness arrangement that General Magic haspulled offAT&T PersonaLink Services, createdspecifically by AT&T for Magic Cap communi-cation.

When I went to Seattle recently, I set my UNCe-mail account to forward to my PersonaLinkaccount. In my hotel room, I used two touches ofthe screen to tell the Magic Link that I was in aplace where it needed to dial 9 for an outside localline, and that I was out of my area code. From thenon, by simply plugging into the data port on theroom phone, the Magic Link automatically knewit was connected to a phone line, called the AT&T800 number, and collected my e-mail. The firstday, I got about 108 messages, many of them fromvarious listservs.

So I sent my AT&T mailbox a message to holdall my listsery mail. Then I told Magic Link toorder a summary first. I used check-boxes in thesummary to collect the messages I wanted and todelete those I didn't. I carried the Magic Linkaround with me, using spare time to reply to mail,and put my outgoing mail into the out-box. Assoon as the opportunity presented itself, I plu!,:edinto a phone line and not only sent e-mail to thosewho have e-mail addresses, but used one ofAT&T'sservices to send some messages via PersonaLink topeople's fax machines. I could have faxed directlyfrom the Magic Link to just about any fax ma-chine in the world, and the Magic Link wouldhave automatically charged the call to my phonecredit card. (That's the only way to send griphics,at the moment, except to another Magic Capdevice.)

The illustration on page 15 shows you thescreen of my Magic Link as I write this column.Touching the desk in the lower left corner takesme to the office scene I mentioned earlier. The top

On the Horizon 14

4April/May 1995

hat contains a variety of goodies for modifyingscenes, adding illustrations to letters, even record-ing short voice notes that can be attached to mailgoing to other Magic Cap users. The magiclantern contains tools for faxing or e-mailingwhatever is on the screen, and lets you set the rulesfor a particular scene. The office scene, for ex-ample, contains an icon that I touch to straightenmy cluttered desk. The tote bag next CO the lampmight have been called the clipboard or scrap-book in another environment; it can accumulateitems copied from one scene for use in otherscenes.

The cup of pencils contains drawing tools andother items for customizing documents. The key-board icon calls up a virtual keyboard that is finefor short messages. The trash truck is where youdrag things you want to throw away. The iconsalong the right include an extend button, whichadds white space at the bottom of the page.

I'm using a non-virtual keyboard at the mo-ment, about the area of those on most laptops,connected by a short cable to the magic link. It fitseasily into a pocket of my briefcase, and weighsabout six ounces.

As I write this, an alarm that I set in my deskcalendar just went off to remind me ofan appoint-ment with a new client. If I touch the rolodex, itwill open automatically to his card. I can touch itto dial his phone number. If I touch the calendar,it will open the appointment entry to remind meof the topics we are supposed to cover. If I callhim, I can open a log to record the major pointsof the conversation, and the length of ti me the calltook. I can print the log, e-mail it, or fax it, and Ican attach it to my invoice and fax them both.When I set up the appointment in the first place,the calendar would have sent a letter notifyinghim of the meeting if I had asked it to.

If he'd received it with a Magic Cap device, itwould have buttons he could push to send mereturn mail confirming the date.

Magic Cap for Windows and the Mac is underdevelopment, so that you'll be able to have a deskon your desktop as well as in your briefcase.

If finding a phone line to send and receive mailseems a trifle inconvenient, rest easy. The sameMagic Cap environment has been licensed byMotorola for a wireless devicethe Envoy. On along cab ride, in an interminable presentation,send and receive e-mail just as if you were con-nected to a phone line. I haven't used one but I'veheld one in my hands. (Motorola's act does notseem to be entirely together yet. Two calls to their800 number to find out where I might buy oneyielded no information of any value whatever. Thesecond operator at I- 800 - WIRELESS actuallyrefused to speak with me.) But when and if I do usean Envoy, you'll see the review here.

There is no single aspect of this device thatmakes it so valuable, nor is there one that I couldnot make better. The screen is not illuminated, sothere are times when the light is either too dim ortoo bright. The modem is too slow. The memorymanagement tends to be flawed, so it will tell youit is running out of memory when it is not. But thewhole is so much more than the sum of the parts,and it is so immediately useful, that it more thanovercomes any problems with individual elements.(I have seen people who never operated a com-puter pick up my Magic Link, set up a letter, enterit, and fax it.)

So what Is "It" ?"It" is the sense of connectedness with col-

leagues, the ability to handle important corre-spondence quickly, to keep track of obligationsand appointments. "It" is the support given by allthe collaborators in this highly complex ventureAT&T, Sony, General Magic, and the individualsoftware developers. The most outstanding ofthese for me has been AT&T and their remarkablyefficient and helpful director of customer services,Jim Benninger.

Customer supportCustomer support in high tech is high stress.

People don't usually call because they are happy.And a communication tool that is giving a prob-lem is worse than no tool at all. Jim and his staffhandle these calls in a friendly manner, show theyhave understood what the caller was really tryingto say and find the solution for them. The atmo-sphere in Jim Benninger's AT&T customer ser-vice is the result of mutually supportive profes-sional conversation.

April/May 1995 15 On the Horizon

65

Tossing the caber at the HighlandGames, Saint Andrews, Scotland.

Ultimately this department demonstrates anattitude of concern for the person who calls witha problem or a complaint. This attitude works itsway through the staff to the customer, and throughthe Magic Cap environment, to the user. Jim

Benninger and the technology he supports give awhole new meaning to "user-friendly."

Does your school have such a setup to deal withthe public, the students and their parents? If not,take heed; if so, congratulations.

The Fifth Global Change International Strategic Management Seminarfor Educational Leaders

Meeting the Challenges otGlobal Change:Planning for the Future of

27-31 July 1995New Hall, Saint Andrews, Scotland

Sponsored 'by On the HorizonIn association with The University of Saint Andrews, Scotland

For information and registration contact our office at (919) 962-2517or browse UpcomingConferences on Horizon Home Page (URL: http://sunsite.unc.eduthorizon).

Cali for Briefing Papers

This is a call for briefingpapers on two topics(1) Global Change: Challenges for Education or(2) Planning Systems Designed to Meet theChallenges of Global Changes. Each briefingpaper should be 5-10 pages, single-spaced. The

On the Horizons.

University of North CarolinaSchool of EducationCB# 3500 Peabody HallChapel Hill, NC 27599-3500

deadline for full text of the briefing paper is 50June 1995.

To submit a briefing paper, send a one-page abstract no later than 30 May 1995 toJames L Morrison.

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On the Horizon 16

6April/May 1995

Alt

junethily,19957*-Volume a Number 5

School Is Out Learning Is InTerry O'Banion

League for Innovationin the Community

College '

The reformmovement has justbeen pruning thebranches of a deadtree.

IN THIS ISSUE:

April 26, 1983, became one of the mostimportant dates in the modern history ofeducation when A Nation at Risk: The

Imperative for Educational Reform was published.Ted Bell, then U. S. Commissioner of Educationand Chair of the commission that published thereport, said American education was experiencing"a rising ride of mediocrity," and if we did notaddress the issues facing American education, thesystem would be totally overwhelmed.

A Nation at Risk elicited a massive reformmovement to improve standards (e.g., requiremore courses in high school, develop nationalcertification standards for teachers, develop na-tional standards for every major job category),apply innovations (e.g., expand use of computers,interactive learning, distance education, and work-based learningopportunities), revise structures(e.g.,create year-round schools, allocate decision-mak-ing to the local level, use total quality manage-ment and continuous quality improvement pro-cesses), and develop alternatives to the existingsystem (e.g., create a voucher system, privatizepublic schools, and create middle schools, clusterschools, and schools managed by universities).

These reform efforts have resulted in a. greatdeal of change, but very little improvement. In a1993 national study ofadult literacy, for example,students were asked, "If you had three dollars,bought a sandwich for $1.95 and a bowl of soupfor $0.60, how much would you have left?" More

than 56% of the respondents polled could notcalculate the remaining change (45c). The reformmovement has just been pruning the branches ofa dead tree.

Why is this? Why has a decade of reformproduced so little? Perhaps it is, in part, becauseour current educational practices are bound bytime, place, efficiency, and teachers themselves.For example:

1. The system is time-bound by credit hoursand semester courses. College students are learn-ing in blocks of time that are artificial. Excellentteachers know that learning is not constrained toone-hour meetings held on Monday, Wednesday,and Friday, and they have been frustrated inteaching within these prescribed boundaries.

2. The system is place-bound. Learning is initi-ated, nurtured, monitored, and certified primarilyby teachers in classrooms on a campus. We haveexperimented with distance education that takescourses off campus, but while it has increasedstudent access, it retains the old model of educa-tion: distance education is a nontraditional deliv-ery system for traditional education. Work-basedlearning was supposed to break up that model, butit doesn'tit extends the model, but it is stillcontrolled by it, because work-based learning isbuilt around the structure of the school. It stillbinds the student to a place.

3. The system is efficiency-bound. Our model ofeducation reflects in great part the 'adjustment to

School is OutLearning is InTerry O'BanionFrom the Editor Issues ChallengingEducationJames L. Morrison

Trends and EventsSocial - Merrill PritchettTechnological Christopher DedeEconomic - David L. KendallEnvironmental - Daniel Neal GrahamPolitical - Laurence R. Marcus

1

3

689

1011

CommentaryHigher Education. Community, and CivilityAndre Auger 12

Methods & TechniquesSing a Song of Scenarios: Using ScenarioPlanningDavid R. Hornfischer 13

ToolsKeeping in Touch in the 90sBernard Glassman 15

Licensed lb for internal duplication to:

6 7

In the last decadewe have spentgreat amounts ofenergy andresourcesredesigning,reengineering,revising,reforming,recycling, andreordering asystem that nolonger works.

We have beenbusy trying tomake a coal-burning locomotiveour major mode oftransportationwhen across thetarmac there areoptions such asthe Concorde andthe space shuttle.

All students needa K-90 system, forlearning is lifelongand continuous.

an agricultural economy. Public school studentsneeded to he home early enough in the afternoonto milk the cows and feed the chickens. In thesummer, they needed to be free for three to fourmonthsto work in the fields, to pick the cottonin the South, to pick the peaches in California,and to harvest the corn in the Midwest. When thecountry changed to the industrial economy, edu-cation responded by creating a lock-step, put-them-in-boxes, factory modelthe basis ofAmeri-can education today. Academic credit, based onrime in class, makes learning appear orderly. Thismodel creates an efficient system to award creden-tials. The college structure of Monday-Wednes-day-Friday classes in a 16-week semester, whileplowing through a specified body of material,makes teachers feel as if they have accomplishedtheir goals. But what does 64 credit hours worthof learning mean to Student A compared to Stu-dent B, especially when the credit is based ongrades? According to Paul Dressel, the coursegrade is "an inadequate report of an inaccuratejudgment by biased and variable judges of theextent to which a student has attained an unde-fined level of mastery of an unknown proportionof an indefinite material." Yet the entire system ofschooling is based on grades accumulated as cred-its.

4. Finally, this system is teacher-hound, whichmay be its greatest weakness. In education, wemake the assumption that one human being, theteacher, can ensure that 30 very different humanbeings, one hour a day, three or more days a weekfor 16 weeks, can learn enough to become enlight-ened citizens, productive workers and joyful life-long learners. Then we assume that this onehuman being can repeat this miracle three moretimes in the same 1 6-week period for 90 addi-tional individuals. Furthermore, we have saddledteachers with expectations that they must be ex-perts in rapidly-expanding fields of knowledgeand gifted lecturers to deliver their knowledge.And we provide little comfort and support whenthey fail to live up to the myth.

In the last decade we have spent great amountsofenergy and resources redesigning, reengineering,

revising, reforming, recycling, and reordering asystem that no longer works.

We have been busy trying to make a coal -burning locomotive our major mode of transpor-tation when across the tarmac there are optionssuch as the Concorde and the space shuttle.

Thus we need to replace the current educa-tional system with a system designed for the kindof .ocietv in which we live today, designed for thekinds of student. who attend school today, anddesigned to take advantage of what we knowabout learning and what we know about technol-ogy today.

The Emerging TransformationTo Place Learning First

The emerging transformation in educationplaces learning first, before teaching. A new con-cept is evolving: School is out, learning is in. Thenew transformation is based on the followingguidelines:

I. The purpose of school is to improve andexpand student learning. Students want to learn.Students learn differently. They learn from eachother. They need customized learning, learningthat offers many options, including stand-alonetechnology and opportunities to learn outside aswell as inside "school." Postsecondary studentsneed schools that allow them to exit and reenter.All students need a K-90 system, for learning islifelong and continuous. They need a system thatallows them to enter 365 days a year, 24 hours aday, seven days a week. The system must provideroad maps, itineraries, optional routes, tours, reststops for feedback, opportunities to make newconnections, and access to major databases andexpert systems throughout the world. They mustbe allowed to change directions, to move back andforth, to make U-turns for remediation, and tocall for assistance when they hit roadblocks.

2. Student assessment is critical. Teachers,staff, and administrators must pay more attentionto assessing student abilities, achievements, val-ues, goals, expectations, and environmental limi-tations. Students need learning portfolios aboutwhat they know, what they don't know, what theywant to know, and what they need to know.Standards for initial entry into and exit from allform?' learning activities must be clearly articu-lated. Learning outcomes must focus on "Whatdoes this student know?" and "What can thisstudent do?"

3. Faculty and staff roles must change. Teach-ers must design and manage, not deliver, learningexperiences. They must be evaluated on how wellthey implement new learning opportunities forstudents in a system that is not time-bound, place-bound, efficiency-bound, or teacher-bound. Theentire staff of the college must be involved inplacing learning first.

Forces of ResistanceAs these tentative guidelines are translated into

action, there will be resistance from bureaucracies,from school personnel, and from students them-selves.

Bureaucratic resistance. Federal and state pro-grams are difficult to dismantle, as every newly-elected politician soon learns. The education codefor California, for example, is contained in 7,000

continued on page 5

On the Horizon 2 June/July 1995b

FROM THE

EDITORJames L. Morrison

The University ofNorth Carolina at

Chapel Hill

Issues Challenging Education/n the last issue (Morrison, 1995), 1 statedthat using the combination of Horizon List,Horizon Home Page and On the Horizon

illustrated how education would be conducted inthe 21st century. The basis of my statement wasthat posting draft articles on Horizon List forcomment allowed for rigorous critique from alarge number of people from around the world,thereby strengthening the articles, which werethen published. Horizon Home Page is an easilyaccessible archive (point and click if you have a

browser) of papers and commentary. This processenables people not subscribed to Horizon List tocomment on the articles and responses to thearticles, and these comments are posted, therebyadding to the commentary. Thus, as Carvin (1995,February/March) illustrated earlier, Web pagesand a lisrsery allow students to post drafts, receivecomment/criticism, and redraft their papers.

It occurred to me that if this is valid, why waituntil the 21st century? Why not put one of mycourses on Horizon Home Page now?

Fortuitously, a few weeks ago I was assigned toteach a new (for me) course on the social context

EDITORIAL

BOARD

James L. MorrThe University of North

Bernard Glassman, Associate EditorPragmatix:Information Design

Blanche Fried Arons, Associate EditorLanguage Associates

Wallace Hannum, Associate EditorUNC-Chapel Hill

Peter BishopUniversity of Houston at Clear Lake

David BrockUniversity of Auckland

Arnold BrownWeiner, Edrich & Brown, Inc.

Dale F. CampbellUniversity of Florida

Andy CarvinThe Corporation for Public Broadcasting

Gordon CaweltiAlliance for Curricular Reform

James DatorUniversity of Hawaii

Gregg EdwardsAcademy for Advanced and Strategic Studies

Jonathan FifeERIC Clearinghouse on Higher Education

Lois GraffThe George Washington University

Warren GroffNova University

E. Raymond HackettAuburn University

Richard B. HeydingerAlliance for Higher Education Strategies

Jeffery HolmesCanadian Bureau for International Education

Bruce Anthony JonesUniversity of Pittsburg

ison, EditorCarolina at Chapel HillIan Jukes

The FutureView GroupAsterios G. Kefalas

University of Georgia

Larry MarcusRowan College

Michael MarienFuture Survey

Graham T.T. MolitorPublic Policy Forecasting, Inc.

Terry O'BanionLeague for Innovation in the Community College

James OgilvyGlobal Business Network

Susan OtterbourgDelman Educational Communications

Tracy LaQuey ParkerCisco Systems, Inc.

Marvin W. PetersonUniversity of Michigan

James G. PtaszyskiWake Forest University

Lewis A. RhodesAmerican Association of School Administrators

Arthur B. ShostakDrexel University

David Pearce SnyderSnyder Family Enterprises

Gerald UnitsHigh School Journal

Frans A. Vail VughtUniversity of Twente, the Netherlands

George WilkinsonThe Wilkinson Group

Ian H. WilsonWolf Enterprises

On the Horizon focuses on potential developments and critical trends affecting education. It is published in Octorier/November, December/January,

February/March. April/May, and lune /July by the Institute for Academic and Professional Leadership, School of Education, The University of North

Carolina at Chapel Hill. ISSN 1074-8121. Annual cost: individual, $24.50; organizational, S49.50:site license,S124.50. For more information,contact

Professor lames L. Morrison, Editor, On the Hanson. or Assistants to the Editor, Jonathan Barker. Adam Bianchi, or Robbi Pickeral, CB, 3500 Peabody

Hall. 12niversin of North Carolina. Chapel Hill, NC 2"599. (919) 962-251". Fax: (919) 962-1533. Internet: Morrison@unc.edu.

I he Institute tOr Academic and Professional leadership serves educational leaders by providing professional development workshops andseminars.

For more information about the Institute, us facilities. and its services, contact William S. Pate, Program Director, TF e Friday Center, CB S1020, UNE-Chapel Hill. Chapel Hill. NC 2-'599. (9191962-3.'26. Internet: iapleunc.edu.

June/July 1995 3

9BEST COPY AVAILABLE

On the Horizon

Draft issue briefsdescribing issuefocus, background,driving forces,future prospects,and implicationswill be posted inthe IssuesChallengingEducation sectionof Horizon HomePage, so thatnot only can classmembers read andcritique the drafts,but so can anyonewho browses ourWeb site.

Please send meyour list of issuesor an issue brief.

of educational leadership for Spring 1996 thatfocuses on the past, present, and future contextsof issues that affect education. It is a requiredcourse for masters and doctoral students in educa-tional leadership.

The specific objectives of the course will be todevelop or to improve competencies to achievethe following:

conduct an analysis of critical issues in educa-tion and the social context within which they areformed

use the Internet's information resources to in-form issue analyses

use multimedia presentation tools to commu-nicate issue analyses

use written and oral expression effectively inissue analysis presentations

It occurred to me that we could add a featureto On the Horizon titled Issues Challenging Educa-tion where we would periodically include briefs(800-1,000 word documents) on salient issuesthat must be considered when planning for thefuture. Result: a call for issue briefs (see page 5).

Please consider writing an issue brief This istough work, but you will get the satisfaction ofpresenting your thoughts and insights to col-leagues around the world plus a publication credit.Whether or not your brief is published in On theHorizon, vou may be confident that it will beposted in the newly created Issues ChallengingEducation section of Horizon Home Page, wherethere is no shortage of space (unlike a five-times-a-year, 16 page newsletter).

A somewhat easier task is to nominate salientissues that would be candidates for students toconsider when they are faced with deciding whichissues they will tackle. All such submissions areeligible for posting on Horizon Home Page wherethey will invite comment and discussion fromthose browsing our Web site (which in turn willstimulate further discussion, which will also beposted).

Nominated issues and issue briefs posted onHorizon Home Page will be easily accessible. En-tering the Home Page, you will see an index of thesection titled Issues Challenging Education. Clickon this title, and you will be carried to a new screenlisting each issue. Click on an issue title, and thenext screen will have either a description of theissue or a full issue brief., the name and e-mailaddress of the person nominating that issue (orwriting the brief), and related comments. Tocomment, enter your message. which will come tome for editing and posting.

My class in the spring will focus first on criticalissues facing education, using the issues posted onhorizon Home Page as a starting point, but alsousing information databases on the Internet andeducational literature to flesh out the identifica-

don of critical issues. We will then select those wethink are most critical. To give realism andperspective, we will simulate a special issue analy-sis task force for the C.S. Department of Educa-tion. with the expectation ofpresenting a series ofissue briefs to the Department senior staff at theconclusion ()Idle semester.

Draft issue briefs describing issue focus, back-ground, driving forces, future prospects. andimplications will be posted in the Issues Chalhmg-mg Education section of Horizon Home Page. sothat not only can class members read and critiquethe drafts, but so can anyone who browses ourWeb site. All comments Jill be posted, and canbe used by students as they revise their drafts. Atthe conclusion of the semester. students willpresent their analyses to the class, md will beencouraged to submit their papers to On theHorizon for publication consideration.

I hope to realize a number of advantages byusing the technology provided via the Internetand production software (e.g., PowerPoint.Word) in the course. First, students will benefitby having a multi-authored list of issues viaHorizon Home Page to consider as they begin thecourse. Second, my role will not be "sage on thestage," but "guide on the side." I will not lectureon the salient issues I see. but rather, will assiststudents to get information themselves aboutissues from a variety of sources, including theInternet. and will assist them to present theiranalyses using multimedia tools to a professionalaudience. Third, this shift in instructor rolecreates an active learning environment wherestudents spend most of their time exploringinformation sources, as opposed to passivelyresponding to a lecture. Fourth, by publishingdrafts on Horizon Home Page, students will gainan appreciation of the value of criticism in im-proving their writing, thoughts, and skills. More-over. the idea of sharing one's writing with anuntold number of people throughout the worldma stimulate a greater concern for improvingone's writing skills! Finally, by using the Internetand production software, future leaders of educa-tional organizations will become sufficiently com-petent in these technologies to move their schoolsinto the 21st century more effectively.

To make this project a success. I will needwidespread input. Please send me your list ofissues or an issue brief. Subscribe to Horizon Listand post your nommations/briek to the L.14.which I will insert on Horizon Home Page.

To subscribe to Horizon List. send the follow-ing e-mail message to listservOunc.edu: sub-scribe horizon <your name> (no period). The

RL address of Horizon Home Page is: ntt p://sunsite.unc.edu/horizon (no period).

[Carvin, A. (1995, February/March) The

On the Horizon 4 June/July 1995

';

Most educatorsunderstand the oldsaw "It is easier tomove a cemeterythan change thecurriculum."Fortunately, thereare always smallgroups of maverickfaculty who will tryany new idea, theearly adopters ofinnovations.

The greatestresistance toplacing learningfirst may comefrom students (andtheir parents).

world wide web: The killer application fol educa- horizon home page: A forerunner of education intion? On the Horizon, 3 (3), 13-14; Morrison, J. the 21st century. On the Horizon, 3 (4),

! (1995, April/May). On the horizon, horizon list,

Call for Issue Briefs

Issues Challenging EducationThis is a call for issue briefs on issues stemming from the social, technological, economic,

environmental, or political sectors that educators must consider when planning for the future of theirorganizations. Each issue brief should address the following questions:

What is the issue focus?

What is the background of the issue?What are the forces driving the issue?Where is the issue going? What are its prospects?What are the implications of the issue for (any or all) levels of education?What should educational leaders do?

E-mail your issue brief to morrison@unc.edu, or mail a disk and hard copy of the issue brief toJames L. Morrison at the On the Horizon office.

continued from page 2

pages in 11 volumes. All American colleges andschools have developed cumbersome and oftenpolitically-structured systems. While these aredesigned for effective, efficient, and fair manage-ment, they frequently inhibit rather than encour-age creative ventures that differ from the estab-lished norms.

Although many educational leaders are awareof the regulatory policies' restrictive potential andtry to encourage new ideas, innovators do notoutnumber the safe-haven traditionalists. In Cali-fornia, one of the most regulated environments inthe nation, the chancellor of the communitycolleges system has issued a challenge to commu-nity college leaders to request waivers from stateregulations that keep the colleges from innovat-ing and experimenting. Requests for such waivershave not been overwhelming.

Personnel resistance. Most educators under-stand the old saw "It is easier to move a cemeterythan change the curriculum." Fortunately, thereare always small groups of maverick faculty whowill try any new idea, the early adopters of inno-vations. But the faculty as a whole is highlyresistant to change. Their allegiance to the disci-pline guilds and the protective mantle or aca-demic freedom are twin pillars of conservatism.Educators, themselves "schooled" first as stu-dents, then as gatekeepers in the traditions ofeducation, do riot embrace alternative ideas withenthusiasm, despite their own deep cynicism aboutthe current system.

Administrators, especially first-line adminis-trators (e.g., department and division heads who

interact directly with faculty), are most resistant tochange. Their position is particularly stressfid asthey attempt to negotiate between the faculty andthe administration, a land in which first-line ad-ministrators can find no safe haven or affiliativegroup. Negotiating the selection of textbooks andconstructing the class schedule is challenge enough

for the brave souls who carry one of the m !jotburdens in an educational organization. They arenot likely to lead the charge to place learning first.even though they may be the key staff memberswho understand best the need for such change.

There will also be resistance from custodians,secretaries, bookstore clerks, and other supportstaff who operate key components of the school'sinfrastructure. Placing learning first may changethe roles of support staff, making them morevisible partners with the professional staff. Sup-port staff will be required to help manage andcoordinate learning activities as faculty arc freed toshare their expertise and skills in new ways withstudents and each other. Some support staff willfeel unprepared to take on these new assignmentsand will need encouragement. training, and rec-ognition to overcome the natural resistance thatwill emerge.

Student resistance. The greatest resistance toplacing learning first may come from students(and their parents). Students know classes. Theyknow schedules. They have spent their whole livestrying to get As. Placing learning first would meantaking responsibility for learning and navigatingtheir own pathway. Students will need a great dealoforientation to this new paradigm, and they willneed early success experiences.

June/July 1995 5 On the Horizon

New models of theparadigm arepercolating to thetop.

In a future issue Iwill describe morefully how alearning-firstorganization willfunction, usingthese exlemplaryinstitutions asillustrations.

SOCIALMerrill Pritchett

University ofBaltimore

The FutureCan the transformational model outlined above

reach fruition anytime soon or even in our life-times? Are we capable of creating and adapting tothat much change?

We are beginning to see small islands of inno-vation. New models of the paradigm arc percolat-ing to the top. A handful ofcolleges have launchedthe transformation and provide some directionfor the greater revolution to follow:

The Dallas County Community College Dis-trict has published a statement titled "Masters ofthe Learning Environment." Full-time facultymembers are responsible for designing the in-structional delivery system in their areas that willbest increase the quality and quantity of indi-vidual learning while decreasing the cost per stu-dent in that learning environment. Although thissystem is still within the context of the old indus-trial educational model, there is an emergingphilosophy that places learning first and makesfaculty responsible for learning outcomes.

Lane Community College in Eugene, Oregon,has developed a comprehensive statement for avision of its future as a learning organization:

Lane Community College provides a quality learn-ing experience in a caring environment. Lane iscentered on learning and will assume new responsi-bilities only when they involve learning. Everyone atLane must be dedicated to learning. The organiza-tion must be a learning organization...change mustbe built into our organization.

Lane is providing a new direction for commu-nity colleges in the language of its vision state-ment. which reflects the heart, mission, and valuesof the institution. Note that the goals of tradi-tional schools and colleges have historically beento provide instruction, not to cause learning. Thecommunity college itself is known as the teachingcollege and has deans of instruction, not deans oflearning. Lane is changing its language to placelearning first. As the language changes, the valuesand practices also begin to change.

Staff and faculty at the Maricopa CommunityColleges in Phoenix, Arizona, have been deeply

involved in reviewing changes at their institutionsthrough participation in the Pew Higher Educa-tion Roundtables. They have launched ProjectApollo to create a learner-centered system andhave engaged their board of governors in a "stra-tegic conversation" on the learning organization.The Maricopa Community Colleges have made amajor commitment to live up to their new visionstatement. "We area learning organization guidedby our shared values."

Palomar College and Chaffey College, both inSouthern California, have also initiated projectsto move their colleges toward a new paradigm oflearning.

These five institutions are examples of com-munity colleges struggling to find a new way toplace learning first. They share strong and effec-tive leadership at the top, faculty mavericks whoare not afraid to innovate, a diversity of students,and an understanding of and experimentationwith technology as a key element in transforminglearning. In addition, they are healthy institutionswith resources and experience in leading change.These institutions will serve as crucibles of inno-vation for transforming colleges into learningorganizations. They bear watching, for they areengaged in a process of change that will turneducation upside down if they are successful inplacing learning first.

In a future issue I will describe more fully howa learning-first organization will function, usingthese exlemplary institutions as illustrations. Iwelcome your comments on the concept brieflypresented here.

[Editor's note: This article is modified from anaddress by Dr. O'Banion at Beyond 2000: Vision-ing the Future of Community Colleges, The 1995Inaugural FuturesAssembly, February 26-28, 1995,in Orlando, Fla.. The article is posted in theconference section, Horizon Home Page (URLaddress: http: / /sunsite.unc.edu /horizon), alongwith other presentations and proceedings of thisconference. Please write or e-mail your responsesto this and other articles in this issue; we will postyour messages on Horizon Home Page for continu-ing comment and review.]

ReengineeringThe reengincering revolution these daysfalls into one of three categories. First arethe advocacy works that recite

reengineering success stories to justify the effort.Second are the highly technical accounts of howto use the reengineering tool kit to redesign aprocess. Lastly, and the predominant type inhigher education, arc the "this is what we did andhow we did it- accounts that elucidate thereengineering of a particular process in a specific

organization. Generally missing in all three is anydiscussion of two keys to successfulreengineeringovercoming resistance to changeand changing institutional values.

Michael Hammer and Steven A. Stanton (1995)provide practical advice about how to promotechange in the people and the values of the organi-zation. They stress that resistance to change isnatural, that the reengineer should expect it, in-deed should seek it out and try to understand themotivations that underlie it. They suggest thatthere are five "I" words for overcoming resistance.

On the Horizon June/July 1995

There is nopracticaldifference in manyprocesses used bybusiness and non-profits.

In manyeducationalinstitutions,reengineering (orTQM for thatmatter) goesaground on thematter ofidentifyingcustomers.

Incentives, particularly financial, both positiveand negative are necessary. Information includesthe facts about the reengineering effort that makeit easier to live with. Intervention deals withresistance to change by dealing with people oneon one so that they can overcome their fear anddistrust of change. Indoctrination means makingpeople realize that reengineering is going to hap-pen; it is inevitable. Involvement means "co-opt-ing people into the reengineering effort so thatthey are criticizing from the inside rather thanresisting form the outside" (p. 130). This sageadvice is, of course, not new to any student oforganizational development, but it is refreshingto see it being advocated by hardheaded manage-ment types.

It is equally pleasing to see that Hammer andStanton address the question of organizationalvalues. A shift in organizational values must takeplace if reengineering is to succeed. A failure torealign values is a "recipe for chaos" (p. 158). Thenew values must be internalized by those whowork in the reengineering process.

A hallmark of reengineering is that it createsprocesses with far greater flexibility than thosethey replace. Rule books and manuals becomelargely irrelevant, as the members of the processteams learn to focus on customers and results (p.158).

Hammer and Stanton acknowledge that val-ues are difficult to change; they heap scorn onmany superficial efforts that are popular in thecorporate world today. Vision statements aresubject to particular abuse at the hands of Ham-mer 2.1c1Stanton. Such statemer.i.s are "... touch-ing affirmations of management's belief in thepower of cliche to alter and mod;fy behavior" (p.161). Real change in values comes about firstwhen the values are built into the reengineeredprocess. If one value is to put the customer first,the reengineered process must guarantee thatfeedback from the customer is heard and actedon. Second, executives must walk the talk; theirpersonal behavior must demonstrate commit-ment to the new values. Third, the company mustbe serious about its realigned values, in both goodand bad times. Lastly, the rewards handed out by

On the Horizon Call for ManuscriptsOn the Horizon articles take two forms: abstracts of one or more articles/books/

Internet postings that have implications for education, oressays on emerging trendsor developments that may affect the future of education. A unique feature ofabstracts or essays in On the Horizon is that authors speculate on the specificimplications of "signals of change" in the macroenvironment for educationalleaders. Abstracts and essays are brief (800-1,000 words); our readers are busypeople who want get to the bottom line quickly. Send manuscripts to James L.Morrison, Editor, On the Horizon, CB 3500 Peabody Hall, UNC-Chapel Hill,Chapel Hill, NC 27599. E-mail: morrison@unc.edu.

the organization must reflect its values; if onevalue is teamwork but only individual achieve-ment is rewarded financially, can it be said thatteamwork is really a valued behavior?

[Hammer, M. and Stanton, S. (1995). Thereengineering revolution: A handbook. New York:Harper Business.)

ImplicationsHammer and Stanton make their book ger-

mane to education in a short chapter entitled"Beyond the Bottom Line: Reengineering in Mis-sion-Driven Organizations." Critics often arguethat reengineering is inappropriate because edu-cational organizations are not run by the disci-pline of the bottom line. They are different; theyare not businesses. However, Hammer and Stantonargue that there is no practical difference in manyprocesses used by business and non-profits alike;purchasing is purchasing, personnel hiring is per-sonnel hiring. Administrative processes are theones most often reengineered in education insti-tutions. Reengineering teaching, research, andservice efforts has proven to be more intractable.

Reengineers in mission-driven organizations,according to Hammer and Stanton, face fourspecial challenges. First they must identify andthen try to understand who their customers are. Inmany educational institutions, reengineering (orTQM for that matter) goes aground on the matterof identifying customers. This isn't an easy task,but they assert that it must be done. Providingbetter service to customers is the whole point ofreengineering. Second, non-profits must come upwith measurable performance standards. Measur-ing the success in mission-driven institutions isnot as easy as in profit centered organ;-nionswhere profit, earnings, and stock price are thebottom line. Nonetheless, for reengineering tosucceed, specific performance measures must becreated because they are the mileposts used tojudge the progress of the effort. Third, reengineersin mission-driven organizations must be sensitiveto the concerns of the idealists in the institution.Principle, not just self-interest, may be a realreason for opposition to reengineering in thenonprofit sector. On the other hand, opponentsof change often use organizational mission as ashield to hide behind. Last, the mission-drivenorganization must truly know what its mission is,it must know what business it is in, and it mustknow what its purpose is.

Hammer and Stanton have no magic answer todeal with these challenges. Perhaps there will be anenlarged chapter on mission-driven institutionsin the next handbook of reengineering. Perhaps itwill be written by someone in education.

June/July 1995 7 On the Horizon

'r3

MaINOLOGICALSIM

Christopher DedeGeorge Mason

University

Nil is fusingtogether the radio,television,telephone, copier,fax, scanner,printer, andcomputer, all ofwhich willeventually coexistin a single box.

Ubiquitous accessto sophisticatedinformationundermines thecampus-based,classroom-centered structureof academiclearningenvironments.

Beyond the Information"Superhighway" . . .

he National Informai on Infrastructure(NII) is a vehicle for virtual communities,a conduit for knowledge utilities, and a

synthetic environment with new frontiers to ex-plore and experience. During the next decade,these emerging capabiiities will leverage morechange in education than has occurred over thepast two centuries.

High-performance computing and wide-area,broadbandwidth networking, the newest techno-logical advances, empower the NI1 to become aubiquitous, enormous channel for data. Differentfrom prior evolutions, Nil is fusing together theradio, television, telephone, copier, fax, scanner,printer, and computer, all of which will eventu-ally coexist in a single box. In two decades, theecology of information technologies will haveonly a few super-species remaining ("teleputers?"compuvisions?") that integrate the capabilitiesof all devices.

Beyond ease of use from a consumer's perspec-tive, this fusion has enormous implications forinformation technology vendors. Merging tech-nologies means merging markets. Tens of thou-sands of current organizations (e.g., telephonecompanies, computer corporations, radio stations,television broadcasters, cable narrowcasters, pub-lishers, on-line databases, newspapers, and librar-ies) will ally, acquire, and expire into just three orfour partnerships that will be the core informa-tion providers for our society.

What does all this mean for education? Infor-mation technology is restructuring Americanbusiness: eliminating jobs, recasting traditionalroles, creating both expanded markets and newcompetitors by transcending barriers of distanceand time. Similarly, the educational implicationsof the NII go beyond enabling the transportationof data anywhere, on-demand, to empoweringnew delivery systems for learning.

Ubiquitous access to sophisticated informa-tion undermines the campus-based, classroom-centered structure of academic learning environ-ments. Virtual communities can complementstudent/faculty face-to-face relationships. Pre-sented with the alternative of technology-medi-ated interaction such as telephone registration orvideo-based classes in higher education, an everincreasing number of part-time students appreci-ate the convenience despite the loss olopportuni-ties for spontaneous, face-to-face socializing.

In the NII, broadband networking coupledwith collaborative tools create -telepresence,-shared social environments without physical prox-imity. As education incorporates opportunitiesfor telepresence in remote access to libraries,

computer labs, on-line advising, and video-basedclasses, the convenience of just-in-time, anyplaceservice will shift academic interactions increa::-inglybut not completelyinto virtual com-munities and classrooms without walls.

As the Nil matures, education outside theclassroom may supplement video-based instruc-tion with immersion in synthetic, virtual environ-ments made possible by distributed simulation, atraining technique developed by the U.S. mili-tary. The shift to interpersonal and interactiveinstruction, a shift coward shared collaboration,mirrors the evolution of crucial workplace skills,satisfying many of the social needs students bringto higher education.

Through such teleapprenticeship approaches,a widely distributed group of students can engagein simulated, real-time experiences (e.g., virtualhospitals, factories). Their ability to apply abstractknowledge is enhanced by situating, education inmentored, virtual contexts similar to the environ-ments in which skills will be used. Moreover,knowledge taught just-in-time to resolve a prob-lem is mastered more readily than when taughtjust-in-case as part of covering material. Interdis-ciplinary, learning-by-doing experiences in artifi-cial environments made possible by the NII willlikely supplement discipline-centered, campus-based teaching-by-telling.

Where will educational organizations find theresources to implement these alternative modelsoflearni ng? Those schools and colleges with inno-vative alternatives to "talking heads" distance edu-cation must seek out vendors happy to share thecosts in exchange for help with the regulators,legislators, and judges who are determining whichcoalitions will manage the NIL As with business,the evolution of technology will create new mar-kets and expanded competitors.

With sufficient economies of scale, the NIImay result in lower costs than our present systemof similar standard courses duplicated at everyinstitution. State legislatures may see this model asan attractive way to cut expenditures for highereducationapplicable to every course for whicha substantial textbook market exists. In this sce-nario, higher education would be reshaped asprofoundly as American business has been alteredby technologies enabling the global marketplace.

The Nil is a meta-medium that synthesizes allprior media into a fusion greater than the sum ofits parts. At present, most faculty and administra-tors are coping with its first impact: shifting f-oinforaging for data to filtering a plethora of incom-ing information. Educational leaders in the nextdecade must develop a comprehension of how touse this new medium to empower new messagesand mission. and of how to collaborate with and/or outperform competitors.

On the Horizon 8 June/July 1995

Pi 4

ECONOMICDavid L. Kendall

St. Edward'sUniversity

Actually, it'sentirelyunderstandableand even desirablethat the dollar isagain on a downtrend versus theyen, and to alesser extent theGerman mark.

Ultimately,international trademust be a two-waystreet. If theJapanese refuse tobuy more U.S.exports, theexchange value ofthe dollar versusthe yen will likelycontinue to fall.

The Dollar May Be Falling,But the Sky is Not

1n the last issue of On the Hortzon, A. G.Kefalas argued that the falling dollar in for-eign exchange markets is an ominous threat

to the American economy; that the downwardtrend of the dollar's value against the yen (andmark) bode ill.

I disagree. The American economy is highlycompetitive in world markets. Throughout mostof the 1980s, the U.S. economy enjoyed thelongest peace-time expansion in real output andincome evernearly a nine-vear run. Followingan unusually mild and brief recession, whichbegan midway through 1990 and ended in thesecond quarter of 1991, real GDP resumed growthat a sustainable pace of 2% to 3qo per year.

Actually, it's entirely understandable and evendesirable that the dollar is again on a down trendversus the yen, and to a lesser extent the German

mark. FollowingArnerica's inflation-financed warin Vietnam and nearly a decade of trade deficits,by 1971 the world was awash in more dollars thanit wanted to hold. Rising U.S. inflation meantthat dollars held by foreigners were losing pur-chasing power daily. U.S. citizens and the federalgovernment were borrowing from the rest of theworld to finance consumption of imports thatwas not offset by exports of domestic production.

When foreign citizens or their governmentswant fewer dollars to purchase U.S. exports or tolend to the United States by purchasing dollar-denominated IOUs, demand for dollars in for-eign exchange markets tends to fall relative tosupply. Naturally, the foreign currency price ofdollars gets bid down as a consequence, otherthings unchanged. And that's just what happenedthroughout the 1970s. As economic theory pre-dicts, dollar depreciation helped increase U.S. netexports during the 1970s.

By 1980, the t '.S. economy was running thelargest real-dollar trade surplus it had experiencedin more than 25 Years. Inflation reached doubledigits. and the Federal Reserve clamped down ongrowth of the nation's money supply, whichincreased nominal interest rates dramatically andplunged the nation into deep recession. But inI esponse to a lower and more stable rate of infla-tion, a cut in marginal federal tax rates, andsubstantial federal deficit spending. the U.S.economy began an uninterrupted nine-year ex-pansion following the recession of he early 1980s.Be 1982, the dollar had regained its depreciationlosses of the 19-0s, and in 198S stood more than20% above its 1970 IOreign exchange level.

It really was a matter of supple and demand fordollars in foreign exchange markets that causedthe dollar's depreciation dining the 10-0s and its

June/July 1995 9

appreciation during the 1980sand so it is todayDoll,.rs .ire supplied to foreign exchange mar-

kets by individuals. firms, or national govern-ments who wish to trade dollars for the currency ofsome other nation. Dollars are demanded in for-eign exchange markets by those who wish to tradesome other nation's currency for dollars. Foreignexchange markets comprise multitudes of buyersand sellers, all motivated by disparate needs andwants. As such, foreign exchange rates cannot beinfluenced for long or much by speculators, oreven by governments as large and rich as America's.

The dollar's recent and possible continuingdepreciation against the yen and mark is an inevi-table response to a dogged U.S. trade deficit thatrequires financing to the tune of more than S12billion a month. Financial investors around theworld are once again growing wary ofholding suchlarge dollar-denominated IOUs. Continuing an-nual U.S. budget deficits portend future inflationin the minds of many around the world. Onceagain. history repeats itself.

U.S. exports must rise faster than imports forthe next several years to restore long- term tradebalance with the rest of the world. Ultimately.international trade must be a two-way street. I ftheJapanese refuse to buy more U.S. exports, theexchange value of the dollar versus the yen willlikely continue to fall.

As financial investors around the world d vest

themselves of dollat-denominated IOUs or refuseto acquire more, the dollar will likely remain lossversus the yen and mark, and perhaps depreciateeven further. The falling foreign exchange value ofthe dollar will predictably increase U.S. export,relative to importsjust what the doctor orderedto restore long-period trade balance.

But trend changes in the dollar's exchangevalue should not cause particular alarm. Here'swhy:

exchange rates, like other market prices. carryinformation about changing supply and demandconditions; efforts to eliminate fluctuations utexchange rates, short term or trend, arc efforts toeliminate valuable information about reality.

changes in exchange rates are usually symptoms, not causes.

governments cannot promote fundamental trail:imbalances fotever: changes in exchange ratestend to force corrections, given enough rime.

Since the dollar was freed to float in foreignexchange markets in 19-1, global trade activitycontinues to expand dramatkally. and with it,global real output and income. Though not theonly c case of trade expansion. Iloanng exchangerates have 10111plelllernd freer track world wide.

Kefalas, A. G. 190S, Apt neinternal tonal financial ((I is )ordei . hi the Horizon.(3), 3, Pp.

On the Horizon

ENIMINIVIENTAL

DanielNorth

Neal GrahamCarolina State

University

ImplicationsDemand for higher education increases as real

incomes rise, and incomes rise faster in Americawith more international trade. Higher education11111111h,

will continue to benefit from real economicgrowthin the U.S. economy, which extensive interna-tional trade promotes. In return, broader con-sumption of higher education will stimulate evengreater economic growth.

Environmental Education:Rethinking Nature, Humans,and Human Nature

/n the April/May 1995 issue of On the Hori-zon, Douglas Crawford-Brown raises an im-portant question for environmental educa-

tors and others in related fields: What shall weteach? Implicit are some related questions: Howshould we teach?, What do we think?, and How dowe think? Understanding the answers to thesequestions must take into account "...the motivesbehind the actions we rake as humans, which inturn affects the way humans interact with thelarger environment. To understand our role inenvironmental problems, we must understandour own minds" (Crawford-Brown, 1995, 10).

Lester Milbrath (1989) poses the challenge ofan ecocentric perspective to critique the variouscomponents of industrial society he sees as mate-rially unsustainable and spiritually alienating.Specifically he questions the: (a) environmentalsustainability of unlimited economic and techno-logical growth models, which create resource deple-tion and pollution overload of life-support sys-tems; (b) polarization of wealth /income based on

Health System

Health

highquality of life

self-realization

Life ina viable

ecosystem

Recreation Structure

Source: I 4M9.

Hvprolitrd xith hue permission or St \ 1A16ans

a lack of political and economic equality; (c)spiritual and psychological alienation resultingfrom the depersonalization and commodificationof humans, other species, and the planet itself; (d)value-free claims of modern scientific and techno-logical methodology at both the macro level (im-pact of political-economic-cultural framework),and at the micro level (limits of its reductionistapproach, which isolates parts from wholes); and(e) desirability of the "Dominant Social Para-digm" that promotes progress as inherently good,without always asking where society is headed.

Milbrath's critique is complemented by analternative "New Environmental Paradigm" basedon ecology's lesson of interdependency amongspecies and planetary life-support systems. Hisecocentric model is illustrated in the figure. Thecentral value is "life in a viable ecosystem," sur-rounded by four core social values: high quality oflife, compassion, justice, and security. These aresupported by various instrumental values, whichare served by the outer ring of societal systems. Allhuman systems (political, economic, academic,scientific/technological) are subsets of the plan-etary biosphere. Human thinking and actionsdon't take place in isolation from the rest of theworld. Because we can never do merely one thing,we should develop the habit of asking "And thenwhat ?" The cavalier use of DDT and CFCs aretwo well-known cases of ignoring these questions.

We need to move beyond dualistic either/orepistemology towards and/and wholistic think-ing, and a new understanding of the relationshipbetween parts and their wholethe whole (sys-tem) is always greater and more complicated thanthe mere sum of its parts.

Ecocentrism can be described as the rejuvena-tion of old wisdoms under new conditions, withinan ecumenical framework that values diversitywithin humankind and among the numerousspecies of the biosphere itself. Ecocentrism re-emphasizes our connection to the rest of thenatural world without ignoring the unique re-sponsibility that technological prowess and self-consciousness have given to humanity. "Thosegiven the gift of understanding will become theconscious mind of the biocommunity...that willguide the transformation (to sustainability)....Those who understand what is happening to ourworld arc not free to shrink from this responsibil-ity" (Milbrath, p. 380).

(Crawford-Brown, D. (1995, April/May). Thenature of nature and of the environment, On the

On the Horizon 10 June/July 1995

Ecology should berequired likeEnglish, math, andscience classes.

Horizon, 3(4), 9-10; Milbrath, L. (1989). Envi-sioning a sustainable society. Albany, N.Y.: SUNYPress.)

ImplicationsNot everybody is as activist-oriented as

Milbrath, but all ofus have the responsibility to begood educators. In a recent phone conversation,Milbrath agreed that environmental educationshould proceed along two complementary paths.First, there is a need for more environmentaleducation classes at all levels of schooling, fromMr. Rogers and Big Bird to university programs.Second, environmental concerns must be inte-grated into the curriculum of related fields.

My Ecocentric Philosphy class at North Caro-lina State University challenges students to thinkdifferently about topics learned in other classesthroughout the University. This class is in theMulti-Disciplinary Studies program, where coursessuch as Environmental Ethics and Science/Tech-nology Policy seek to integrate interdisciplinaryinsights. There is almost always a core group ofstudents from the Forestry School and other lifescience majors in these classes, who are interested

POLITICAL Rules Against Hate Speech

Laurence R. MarcusRowan College

Collegiate hate-speech codeshave beenoverturned in thefederal courts ona routine basissince theUniversity ofMichigan's policywas thrown out inthe late 1980s...

in how their particular specialty is affected bypolitical, economic, and cultural factors. Like-wise, social science students learn more about howsocial systems are influenced by nature's cycles andhealth.

The Environmental Educators of North Caro-lina (EENC) started by Melva Okun and othersfrom the Environmental Resource Program (Uni-versity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) has beenactively pushing for more environmental studiesin the state's elementary, middle, and high schools.More than 650 teachers and other environmentalprofessionals participated in the state-sponsoredNCEE Conference, held in the Research TrianglePark in December 1994, to discuss and promoteenvironmental education, its content, applica-tion, fundings, and outreach programs.

Ecology should be required like English, math,and science classes. To be truly educated, weshould know about the world in which we live. Dr.Milbrath has a new book coming out in late fall1995, Learning to Think Environmentallydesignedfor a broader audience than his 1989 offering. Onthe Horizon readers will be among the first to seea review.

Overturned AgainBased on a 1992 state statute that forbidsuniversities from restricting speech other-wise protected off-campus, a California

Superior Court judge has struck down StanfordUniversity's anti-harassment policy (AssociatedPress, 1995). While Robert J. Cony, one of thenine students who brought the suit against theuniversity, lauded the decision, contending that"students should not live in fear that what they saycould get them expelled" (Shea, 1995), it comes asa blow to colleges and universities that havesought to improve the level of civility and inter-group harmony on campus by banning racist,sexist, homophobic, antireligious, and anti-eth-nic group speech.

Collegiate hate-speech codes have been over-turned in the federal courts on a routine basissince the University of Michigan's policy wasthrown out in the late 1980s for violating the FirstAmendment by being vague and overbroad. Insti-tut ions were further constrained by the SupremeCourt's decision in R.A.V. v. St. Paul, whichoverruled a city ordinance against cross-burn i ngsand painting of swastikas, because the ordinanceWas not neutral in its content; government cannotforbid speech, verbal or symbolic, because it doesnot concur with the message.

Although Stanford is an independent univer-sity, it explicitly sought to craft its policy to meet

constitutional standards, attempting to balancethe free speech protection of the First Amendmentwith the equal rights and antidiscrimination pro-tections of the Fourteenth Amendment (Grey,1992). The code began with a clear statement ofthe university's policy on free expression, notingthat students must learn to "tolerate even expres-sion of opinions which they find abhorrent." Thesecond section affirmed the university's policyagainst discrimination. The third section cited theconflict between the principles of free expressionand antidiscrimination that might exist in certaininstances, concluding that "protected free expres-sion ends and prohibited discriminatory harass-ment begins" when the expression of an opinionbecomes "personal vilification" of someone pro-tected by the antidiscrimination policy. The fourthsection narrowly defined "personal vilification" asspeech (verbal or symbolic) that is intended toinsult or stigmatize an individual on the basis ofone of the characteristics noted in the antidis-crimination policy, is addressed directly to thoseinsulted or stigmatized, and utilizes insulting or"fighting words," or words "commonly under-stood to convey direct or visceral hatred or con-tempt for human beings on the basis of character-istics specified in the antidiscrimination policy."The "fighting-words" reference is to the 1942 caseof Chaplinsky v New Hampshire in which theSupreme Court held that there is no constitutionalsafeguard for words that "by their very utteranceinflict injury or tend to incite an immediate breach

June/July 1995 11 On the Horizon

tl

Theconstitutionality ofenhanced penaltyprovisions inresponse to bias-related victimselection providescolleges anduniversities theopportunity tomake anunequivocalstatement ofinstitutionalresolve in codes ofstudent conduct.

COMMENTARY

Andre AugerUniversity of Guelph

(Ontario)

At present, mostuniversitiesespecially thosewith significantresidencepopulationsplace considerablestaffing effort onbehaviordevelopment.

of the peace." (This fighting-words doctrine hasbeen narrowed over the years by the Court, mak-ing it increasingly difficult to meet the standardthat would permit speech to be banned or pun-ished.)

Some critics of the hate speech debate arguedthat Stanford's code did not go far enough topreclude all racist speech, having been drawn socarefully in order to weather attacks basedvagueness and overbreadth. Civil libertarians con-tended that the Stanford policy fell short, arguingthat campus speech codes underpinned bya Four-teenth Amendment orientation would not meetthe content-neutrality test of the First Amend-ment. In the end they were all right, and Stanfordwas unsuccessful in its argument that its own FirstAmendment right to prohibit unacceptable speechon its property would be abridged by the applica-tion of the state law to its code.

[Associated Press (1995 March 1). Court over-turns Stanford code on bigoted speech, New YorkTimes, p A25; Grey. (1992, September/October).

Civil rights vs. civil liberties: The case of discri mi-natory verbal harassment. Journal of Higher Edu-cation, 63 (5),485-516; Shea, C. (1995 March10). Stanford anti-harassment policy violates rightsof free speech, California judge rules. Chronicle ofHigher Education. p A32.)

ImplicationsThe ruling by the California court does not

completely tie the hands of colleges and universi-ties. Many institutions would like to place them-selves on the record in clear opposition to actsand/or speech of hatred. In the 1993 SupremeCourt ruling in Wisconsin v. Mitchell, the Courtupheld a state statute that enhances penaltieswhenever a defendant "intentionally selects theperson against whom the crime iscommitted...because of race, religion, color, dis-ability, sexual orientation, national origin or an-cestry of that person." Chief Justice Rehnquist,speaking for a unanimous Court, noted a differ-ence between the ordinance that was struck downin R.A.V. v. St. Paul for not being content-neutral, and the one at issue in Mitchell. whichwas aimed at the nature of the penalty for conductthat is not protected by the First Amendment.

The constitutionality ofenhanced penalty pro-visions in response to bias-related victim selectionprovides colleges and universities the opportunityto make an unequivocal statement of institutionalresolve in codes of student conduct. Harassmentmay be generally prohibited, although specificreferences to harassment based on race, ethnicity,etc., may be made. However, the code may clearlystate that there will be enhanced penalties ininstances where it can be demonstrated that thevictim was targeted as a result of racial, ethnic, orother specified bias.

Higher Education,Community, and Civility

Universities, searching for a new identity,are focusing on new student markets andnew approaches tc iearning. Among these

is the vision of a university driven by and cateringto a student audience not physically present oncampuswith courses taught by CD-ROM, de-grees via the Internet, student-faculty interactionvia e-mail, and MUDs (Multi-User Domains)and MOOs (Multiuser Object Oriented domains).

What will the electronically-connected stu-dent gain in the "technoversity "? New markets,efficiencies, and opportunities? How will univer-sities continue to meet their "civilizing" role for anation's young people? Might the technoversitythreaten this mission that, for many within highereducation, remains an important mandate?

If our model of a university is that of anintellectual resource that provides active adultlearners with access to the latest knowledge, theo-ries, and research, then the question of electronicaccess creates no difficulty. If, on the other hand,the university is also a social institution thatfosters the development of young ,idults into

whole persons ready to assume a responsible rolein the world of work, politics, family, and com-munity, then the question takes on a whole newdimension. We need to ask ourselves to whatextent the technoversity can continue to providethis function, and whether it might do so in thecontext of an atomized class of students linkedwith each other and the instructor primarilythrough dr: mediation of the computer.

At present, most universitiesespecially thosewith significant residence populationsplaceconsiderable staffing effort on behavior develop-ment. Ask residence life staff at almost any NorthAmerican university about the greatest educa-tional challenges facing universities today, and thetopics will inevitably be: curbing personal vio-lence, developing more positive ways to resolveconflict, fostering tolerance, encouraging a cel-ebration of diversity, eliminating sexism and rac-ism. inculcating more respectful sexual practices,teaching skills to cope with dysfunctional familyhistories, and promoting more balanced lifestylesand patterns of wellness to enhance human per-formance.

While these appear to have little to do with theacademic heart of the universitythe creation

On the Horizon 12 June/Juty 19957 3

I marvel at andapplaudexperiments invirtualcommunities andvirtualuniversities, but Ineed tounderstand howon-screenexperiences canreplace actionsand feelings thatelicit responsibilityor commitment toa groupanessential part ofthe communityexperience.

and the dissemination of knowledgeuniversi-ties, perhaps despite themselves, are providing a"moral education" as a mission to respond to thetimes. Academic performance is in good partdependent upon psycho-social maturity. More-over, society (and our funding agencies) expectsuniversities to produce a new generation of re-sponsible and productive leaders, thinkers, andpoliticians, and to foster the development ofproductive workers, enlightened and involvedcitizens, empathetic social leaders, creative prob-lem-solvers, and useful scholars and researchers.

Those expectations imply some willingness towork for and within a community. Oversimplify-ing a bit, the past few decades have seen a consid-erable increase in dysfunctional behavior that cantentatively be described as originating in a youthpopulation that combines a strong sense of per-sonal rights with a weak understanding of com-munity obligations.

Robert Bellah and his colleagues (1985) arguethat American society has lost its understandingof the primacy of community and of the relation-ship between individuals and their communities.and has developed instead a vision of the good lifein terms of individualism. The typical moralvocabulary of North Americans defines moral lifein terms that identify the individual as the pri-mary unit. Viewing involvement with others onthe basis of individual relationships between pre-existing autonomous "monads" leads individualsto conceive of relationships on a "contractual"model. Individualism (a) does not provide anylanguage for talking about situations that requireperseverance and contribution to a community

, for the "public good," (b) is inadequate for engag-ing in true political discourse, and (c) reduces allsocial dynamics to notions of market exchange. Acommunitarian understanding of moral life foryoung people develops the critical tools to assessaccurately and to contribute positively to thedevelopment of the fabric of society. Moral life inthis context is primarily in interdependent rela-tionships, worked out in public dialogue. The

METHODS & Sing a Song of Scenarios:

TECHNIQUES Using Scenario Planning

4

David R.Hornfischer

Berklee College ofMusic

language of "public good," and with it the notionsof public virtue and character, is the prevailingforce leading to desirable behavior. We need tolearn a concern for "social ecology" just as we havelearned a concern for natural ecology: each indi-vidual action affects others.

Colleges and universities group people linkedby interdependence who need to develop the senseof cohesion to handle conflicts, live with disagree-ments, develop a sense of shared purpose, and actfor a common good. Community is not the sameas a "lifestyle enclave- of like-minded people get-ting together to reinforce their own views andtheir own needs. Community requires the recog-nition that its members are in some real sensesubservient to the larger entity without losingthemselves. True community requires that one seeone's own needs in the context of the needs of thegroup. In activities where students are involved inface-to-face communities from resolving con-flicts of roommates, sports teams, service clubs.collaborative learning groups, and student gov-ernment they learn the lessons of give and take,compromise, having and measuring up to expec-tations, and sharing in and acting on commonvalues and purposes.

I marvel at and applaud experiments in virtualcommunities and virtual universities, but I need tounderstand how on-screen experiences can replaceactions and feelings that elicit responsibility orcommitment to a gro tpan essential part of thecommunity experience. On the Internet, I can, atbest, become a member of "lifestyle enclaves" ofpeople like me. At worst, I can engage in unbridledattacks against people I disiike. I believe collegesand universities must actively and intentionallypursue the teaching of communitarianism in thename of the societies they serve. Let us keep thislearning objective in mind as we move our univer-sities into the brave new world of cyberspace, lestwe allow our losses to outweigh our gains.

[Bellah, R. et al. (1985). Habits of the heart.New York: Harper and Row.)

erklee College of Music in Boston. Massa-chusetts, currently celebrating its 50thanniversary, is the world's largest contem-

porary music college. With an enrollment ofmore than 2500 students, 35% of whom comefrom outside the United States, Berklee calls itselfan international "music city.- offering degreeprograms in every aspect of music including writ-ing, arranging, performing, producing, record-ing, teaching and the business of music.

To begin to plan lot the next SO scars, we

looked both into the mirror and outward to po-tential external scenarios m form the basis for astrategic plan to meet the future needs of ourinternational base of students.

We used the decennial accreditation process toguide our internal review via a comprehensiveinternal self-study. The study and subsequentaccreditation review process identified a numberof strengths and weaknesses of the college thatserve as a guide to planning and assessment.

To evaluate the external environment, weturned to the scenario-based planning approachdescribed by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long

'roe. I Its firm. Global Business Network (GBN 1,

June/July 1995 13 On the Horizon

ran

We selected thescenario processto evaluate ourstrategies againsta backdrop ofdifferent externalenvironments andto define a visionfor the future thataccounted for andaddresseddifferentconditions.

helped us use this approach, which was similiarlydescribed in Ian Wilson's article in the February!March issue of On the Horizon.

As a tuition-dependent institution, we atBerk lee defined maintenance of our 2500 stu-dent enrollment as the critical issue driving ourinstructional, administrative, space and financialplanning. We knew, however, that we needed tolook at various alternative external conditionsthat could affect our enrollment and broaden ourview of the future.

For this purpose, we selected the scenarioprocess to evaluate our strategies against a back-drop of different external environments and todefine a vision for the future that accounted forand addressed different conditions. This ap-proach enabled us to examine different optionsand to avoid making a single point forecast thatmight restrict planning to mere incrementalchanges to present strategies. At the same time, itdiscouraged planning for radical moves that mightbe effective only under a particular condition.

Working with GBN, we used a broad basedreview to identify critical factors that wouldimpact enrollment. While many were internal,the two external factors that emerged were theoverall world economicclimate of the next five toseven years and the overall continued studentdemand for our programs. The analysis then

many of our graduatesChanging nature of musical literacy especially

relating to the notation of music for guitar, drumsand piano--the three most popular Berklee stu-dent instruments

Changing faculty capabilities vis-a-vis remain-ing current with today's music technology andmeeting the needs of a more diverse and lessformally educated music student population

Changing student population demographics,spending habits, and expectations

Our ability to shape the musical landscape, asthe largest independent college of music alumnibase of over 20,000, whose careers are generally inthe music industry

The analysis of trends relating to each of theseissues led to a four-quadrant scenario-structurewith two axes marking the demand for our pro-grams as well as the overall strength of the globaleconomy. Four scenarios were developed andnamed to give life to the alternative environments.

I. Back Bay to Bombay (High demand/strongeconomy) This is the good news scenario in whicha rising economic tide coupled with strong de-mand for a Berklee education allow us to expandand become a truly global music college. A back-drop of solid economic growth of over 3% pavesthe way for a second Clinton term with a renewedsense of community and public purpose. The

music business rides the economic tide andcombined with increased diversity of musicstyles, makes Berklee's contemporary/tech-nology-based curriculum ever more appeal-ing to potential students from around theworld.

2. Competitive Pressures (Low demand/strong economy) Here the economy is alsostrong, but pressures from other schools, aswell as non-institutional, perhaps Internet-based, competition created by new tech-nologies, diminish the attractiveness of aformal and expensive degree to a morebusiness-aware student.

3. Berklee, Inc. (High demand/weakeconomy) While interest for Berklee educa-tion remains strong because of our contem-porary curricul um, economic pressures makethe cost even more burdensome. The im-

pact of a weak U.S. economy growing at less than2% is felt across the globe. Our government,overwhelmed by social and economic issues, re-duces commitment to student aid programs.Berklee is forced to increase scholarship budgets toseek greater corporate support.

4. Dazed and Cmlusea' (Low demand/weakweak economy) This is the disaster story where afaltering economy, combined with the continuingdiminishment of school music programs and adumping music industry, put increased pressures

Berklee Scenario StructureA Return to Economic

Growth

High Demand forBerklee Education

Back Bay toBombay

CompetitivePressures Low Demand for

Berklee Education

Berklee,Inc.

Dazed andConfused

A Faltering U.SJGlobalEconomy

identified and considered seven driving forcesimpacting these factors:

State of the global economy needed to inspireconfidence that future potential career opportu-nities will justify student/parent investment in aBerklee education

National educational spending and prioritiesrelating to a role for music education to fostersupport for early education in contemporarymusic

State of the recording industry that employs

On the Horizon 14 June/July 1995

TOOLSBernard Glassman

Pragmatix:InformationDesign

Action Fax allowsyour e-mail to beforwarded to yourAction Fax e-mailaddress anddownloaded to youanywhere as a fax.

There are nowhand-held cellularphones that canfunction ascordless phonesaround the house.

on our enrollment.As Ian Wilson noted in his recent On the

Horizon article (1995, February/March), scenariosfocus our attention on the branching points of thefuture, thereby opening up to us the possibility ofdiscontinuities and to the need for contingencyplanning.

We subsequently developed four componentsof a shared vision entitled Creative Musicianshipfora Changing World: (a) maintain and assess ourcurriculum to assure implementing new tech-nologies and teaching methodologies; (b) providefor increased student diversity; (c) improve cam-pus life by strengthening our participatory colle-

gial culture and our facilities; and (d) expandaccess to secondary collaboratives, post secondaryconsortia, international music education, andmusic industry relationships.

This visionary approach will lead to developmerit of strategic operating goals within Berklee.These scenarios must, however. be continuouslymonitored against the actual economic and de-mand backdrop as they play out. Awareness of thesignificant driving forces will aid in that process.

[Schwartz, P. (1992). The art of the long view.New York: Century; Wilson, I. (1995, February/March). Envisioning (and inventing) the future.On the Horizon, 3(3),1 -2, 51

Keeping In Touch in the '90snumber of review-worthy tools have ac-

cumulated over the year, among themctionFax, Tele-Go, and Live Markup.

ActionFaxActionFax is a central fax-modem and voice-

prompt system that allows you to receive, store,and retrieve faxes via a toll-free number. You areoffered the option of reviewing the list of waitingfaxes, deleting those you have already seen, andforwarding one or more to another fax machine oreven to another subscriber's mailbox. Think of itas voice-mail for faxes. The prompt system eventells you the page-count of the waiting faxablessing if you happen to be pressed for time oryour hotel charges by the received page.

ActionFax also has announced that it will be onthe Internet by July, 1995. Among other features,it allows your e-mail to be forwarded to yourActionFax e-mail address and downloaded to youanywhere as a fax.

A basic Act ion Fax subscription, with 90 down-loaded pages at no additional cost, is about $25(U.S.). There are occasional specials and free trialsthrough the airlines, so see if you can try beforeyou buy. Call ArtionFax at 1-800-725-1992 formore information.

The Tele-Go PhoneThere arc now hand-held cellular phones that

can function as cordless phones around the house.The 'Tele-Go is smaller than the MicroTac

from Motorola, and it has a better display. As justanother cordless, its much clearer and farther-reaching than any but the new, expensive 900megahe,-tz phones. I can walk the dogs severalhundred yards without losing the ability to receiveor make calls using my home phone line, and I canalso receive calls made to my Tele-Go number.These functions are at no charge, because while itis being used as a cordless, calls to the Tele-( ;o

number are automatically forwarded to my homenumber. When I get out of range of my house, theTele-Go locks onto a cellular antenna in the area,so it can continue to receive calls to the cellularnumber. It has an amazing 25 hours of standbytime, or about two and a half hours of continuoustalk time. GTE offers call-waiting, voice-mail, callforwarding, and conference calling as adjuncts tothe phone. \X'ith an adapter, the phone will acceptthe cable from your fax machine or fax-modem.This means cordless faxing and e-mail availabilityfrom anywhere around the house, and cellularconnections elsewhere. And it can also be a secu-rity phone to take along in the car.

At 25c a minute, the airtime on the Tele-Go isabout right for quick calls to a client or colleague,but as yet, it is not very reliable for roaming intoother cellular markets. On a trip to Washington,D.C., it was useless. On a trip to Philadelphia, Igot through to the roaming network with a niceclear signal, but was required either to give theoperator a Mastercard or American Express num-ber, or to call collect. From there. it's $1.05 perminute anywhere in the U.S. On my U.S. Airflight from Philadelphia to Raleigh-Durham, stuckfor an hour on the runway with no AirPhones onboard, my Tele-Go collect call home went throughflawlessly. At about nine ounces. it's well worthdropping in the briefcase.

Tele-Go costs $18 per month, with no con-tract and no hardware purchase necessar . CallTele-Go at 1-800-TELEGO to learn when it willbe available in your area.

The HTML SourcebookThe 11 1 ;111. Sourcebook is a superb guide to

I ITM L and to all the finer points, such as allowingpeople to send von e-mailed comments whilereading your home page, looking up something i na database, and offering drop-down menus. evento the reader who is browsing V0111 page withLynx. If you've considered setting up a page lotYour department but weren't sure how. this book

June/July 1995 15 On the Horizon

Ei

You'll be creatingnifty pages,including links toother pages,quickly and easily.Live Markup istryoutware thatupgrades uponregistration into amore robustproduct.

should remove any hesitation.[Graham, I. S. (1995). HTML sourcebook.

New York: John Wiley & Sons. Inc. $29.95(U.S.)]

Live MarkupTo avoid the more tedious writing in HTML,

lots of text-editing software now permit you tohighlight portions of a page of plain text and turnit into HTML elements. The best of these areWYSIWYGwhat you see is what you, or the

person who connects to your site, get. The best ofthe WYSIWYGs at the moment is called LiveMarkup. Still a work in progress, it does what it isdesigned to do. You'll be creating nifty pages,including links to other pages, quickly and easily.Live Markup is tryoutware that upgrades uponregistration into a more robust product. Checkthe developer's homtpage at http://www.mediatec.com/mediatec/ to download a copyfor your Windows machine (a Mac version is inthe works).

Accessing Horizon List and Horizon Home Page

If you have access to the Internet, you have access to Horizon List and Horizon Home Page. To become aparticipant on Horizon List, send the following message to listserv@unc.eclu

subscribe horizon <yourfirstname> <yourlastname>To access Horizon Home Page, if you have a graphics-supporting browser (e.g., Netscape, Mosiac), point it tothe following URI.;

http://sunsite.unc.edu/horizonIf you do not have such a browser (e.g., you use a modem to dial into your host site), and you do not have accessto a SLIP or equivalent connection, you can browse the text of Horizon Home Page as follows:

When you log on your e-mail server, at the UNIX prompt (%), type:telnet sunsite.unc.edu

Hit return. You will get another UNIX prompt. Type:lynx

Hit return. You will then be asked for your terminal emulation, which should be set to vt100. Type:vt100

Hit return. You are now in the *SunSITE index. Use your down arrow to get to On the Horizon. Use the rightarrow to enter Horizon Home Page.

The directions for navigation within the home page are at the bottom of your screen. You are now in ourWeb site; browse to your heart's content.

On the HorizonUniversity of North CarolinaSchool of EducationCB# 3500 Peabody HallChapel Hill, NC 27599-3500

Non-Profit OrganizationU.S. Postage

PAIDPermit No. 177

Chapel Hill, N.C. 27599-1110

3 L.)

On the Horizon 16 June/July 1995