does electric grid 2.0 mean energy democracy?

D O E S E L E C T R I C G R I D 2 . 0 M E A N E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y ?

A S H O C K I N G T R A N S F O R M A T I O N

John Farrell March 9, 2016

Presentation at NESEA 2016

A Q U E S T I O N

S M A R T P H O N E I M A G E Did you get one of these…

From a landline company like

that?

A S I M I L A R M O N O P O LY

P R O B L E M

PercapitaelectricityuseAverageannualretailelectricitypricesInterstatetransmissionspendingWindandsolarpowercapacity

c1900 199019801970 2000 2010

Sources:WorldBank,EIA,USCensus,SEIA,LBNL

“GOLDEN AGE” SHOCK & COMPETITION STABILITY DEREGULATION

• PURPAallowsnon-utilitygeneration

• Pricesrise• Salesslow• Competitionstarts

• Pricesfall• Demandrises

• Independentproducersrise,asdointerstatetransactions

• Fedsopenwholesalemarket

• Statesadoptrenewablestandardsandnetmetering

• Somestatesintroducecompetitionforgenerationandretailsales

• Wind+Solargoexponential

• Demandflattens

TRANSITION

• Statesoffer“decoupling”

• Statesadoptenergyefficiencystandards

S T E A D Y F O R D E C A D E S

• Regulatedmonopolies• Profitsfromsales• Profitsfromnew

powerplants• “biggerisbetter”


1990 2000 2010


C O S T & C O M P E T I T I O N STABILITY DEREGULATION

• Pricesfall• Demandrises


• Fedsopenwholesalemarket




• Demandflattens

TRANSITION



“GOLDEN AGE”

S H O C K # 1

c1900 1970 1980

• Pricesrise• Salesslow• Competitionstarts


S H O C K # 2

2010


“GOLDEN AGE” STABILITY D E R E G U L AT I O N & R E N E WA B L E S


• Demandflattens



C O S T & C O M P E T I T I O N

c1900 1970 1980 1990 2000





A T R A N S F O R M AT I V E T I M E


“GOLDEN AGE” TRANSFORMATIOND E R E G U L AT I O N & R E N E WA B L E S

C O S T & C O M P E T I T I O N

c1900 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

STABILITY


• Demandflattens

N O P I E C E O F C A K E

Utilities are like bakers that only try a recipe once a

decade. No iteration means no innovation.

1 I N S TA L L E V E R Y 6 0 S E C O N D S

I N C O N T R A S T

U N P R E C E D E N T E D P O W E R

Software allows many iterations

B AT T E R I E S E V E R Y W H E R E

D I S T R I B U T I O N G R I D I N V E S T M E N T L A G G I N G

American Society of Civil Engineers

“America will see an investment gap in distribution infrastructure of $57 billion by 2020”

I T ’ S A W H O L E N E W W O R L D

Minster POPULATION 2,806

Small town adds storage to solar

P E R C E N T O F H O U S E H O L D S W I T H

S O L A R

15%

53% used on-site

S O L A R A L O N E S O L A R + E V + B AT T E R Y + S M A R T C O N T R O L S

89% used on-site

Inexpensive solar+storage will be cheaper than grid electricity in most places within 20 years, half the life of new power plants

U N E X P E C T E D

H O W D I F F E R E N T W I L L I T B E ?

1 0 0 % R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y *

• Jacobson state by state studies

Source: Mark Jacobson via David Roberts

* W I T H A F E W C H A N G E S I N D I R E C T I O N

Credit: mark notari via Flickr

• Electrify everything

• transportation, heating/cooling, and industry

1 . E L E C T R I F Y E V E R Y T H I N G

Credit: Ken Bosma via Flickr

2 . R E D U C E U S E

39.3%Compared to business-as-usual

X X XX

X X

3 . W I N D - W AT E R - S O L A R O N LY

20202025

2030

2016

2050

after

for new power plants

Allnewlight-dutyvehicles

2015 203020252020

IN JUST 25 YEARS…

Allnewshipsandports

Allnewtrainsandbuses

Allnewsmall,short-rangeplanes

2035 2040

Heating,drying,andcookingintheresidentialandcommercialsectors

Allnewheavydutytrucks

Allnewlong-haulaircraft

Credit: Mark Jacobson, via David Roberts

Allnewsmallmarinevessels

ELECTRIFICATION TIMELINE TO REACH 100% RENEWABLE BY 2050

A D A P T O R D I E ?

T R A N S F O R M AT I O N

It seems an equal choice between energy democracy and utility monopoly…

T R A N S F O R M AT I O N

But one is a dead end

N E W R U L E S

1. Enable alternatives

N E W R U L E S

2. Set up markets

N E W R U L E S

3. Allow power sharing

www.ilsr.org

D O W N L O A D O U R F U L L R E P O R T

R E A D M O R E

@johnffarrell

http://www.ilsr.org

does electric grid 2.0 mean energy democracy?

Environment