Darrell DavisWheat Producer
Ipswich, SD
Secretary Treasurer
2010 U.S. Wheat Situation
Production & Market Highlights .
21st Annual IAOM MEA District Conference Cape Town, South Africa 22-25 November, 2010
My Farming
Operation
• Sixth generation
• Beef cow-calf ranch
• Hunting enterprise
• 2,800+ tillable hectares
Hard red spring wheat
Seeded hard red winter
first time this year
Corn and soybeans
U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison
31.2
24.5 23.9
21.8
30.0
37.9
35.236.0
23.4
26.2
31.4
31.2
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Millio
n H
ecta
res
Wheat Corn Soybeans
U.S. Wheat Area and Production
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10
MT/
hec
tare
s
Pro
duct
ion
(MM
T) a
nd
Har
vest
ed A
rea
(mh
)
Harvested Area Production Yield
60.5
MMT
U.S. Wheat Supply & DemandJune, 2010
U.S. Wheat Supply & Demand July, 2010
U.S. Wheat Supply & Demand August, 2010
U.S. Wheat Supply & Demand October, 2010
Source: USDA FAS export sales report 5 November 2010
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat2009/10 vs. 20010/11
(year-to-date)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
MM
T
2009/10 2010/11
Total US Export Sales
as of October 28th:
20.0 MMT vs 13.2 MMT
34.0 MMT vs 24.0 MMT
Annual (projected) Total
2010-2011 Comments By Class
• 2010 Crop Quality
Report and by class
reports are posted
at www.uswheat.org
• Production:
27.7 MMT (25.0 MMT)
• Crop Development:
Land area down 5%; yields
increased; cool temps thru
head filling; rain delays in MT.
• Quality 2010 v. 5 Yr Ave:
Protein 11.8 (12.4)
Kg/Hl 80.2 (79.2)
Humid. 11.2 (11.2)
Falling # 406 (412)
Hard Red Winter Wheat2010 Crop, Harvest Composite
710
25
28
10
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
MMT
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
• Production:
15.8 MMT (14.9 MMT)
• Crop Development:
Wet weather delayed last
15% of harvest ; generally
hot summer; higher yields.
• Quality 2010 v 5 Yr Ave:
Protein 13.7 (14.3)
Kg/Hl 81.0 (80.0)
Humid. 12.4 (12.1)
Falling # 387 (405)
Hard Red Spring Wheat2010 Crop, Harvest Composite
46
15
16
6
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
• Production:
7.1 MMT (11.0 MMT)
• Crop Development:
Land area down; generally good growing conditions favoring East Coast crop; higher DON levels elsewhere.
• Quality 2010 v 5 Yr Ave:
Protein 10.3 (9.9)
Kg/Hl 76.2 (78.1)
Humid. 12.9 (13.0)
Falling # 333 (334)
Soft Red Winter Wheat2010 Crop, Harvest Composite
5
7
11
6
33
0
5
10
15
20
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
• Production:
7.5 MMT (6.5 MMT)
• Crop Development:
“Ideal” moisture, “excellent” growing conditions. Good harvest period. More typical low proteins.
• Quality 2010 v 5 Yr Ave:
Protein 9.7 (10.4)
Kg/Hl 78.5 (78.7)
Humid. 9.4 ( 9.2)
Falling # 337 (332)
Soft White Wheat2010 Crop, Harvest Composite
2 2
6
7
45
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
• Production:
3.0 MMT (3.0 MMT)
• Crop Development:
Higher planting in N. Plains offset by lower area in desert SW; wet, cool weather with little stress; delayed harvest .
• Quality Attributes:
Protein 13.4 (13.5)
Kg/Hl 78.1 (80.0)
Humid. 11.5 (11.8)
Falling # 335 (411)
Durum Wheat2010 Northern Crop, Harvest Composite
0.71.0
3.0
3.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
Thank you for the opportunity to discuss some
important issues.
.
We appreciate your business!