Download - 2011 Northeast LA Business Outlook Summit
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2011 Northeast LA Business Outlook Summit Dr. Robert Eisenstadt, University of Louisiana at MonroeDr. John Francis, Louisiana Tech University
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PowerPoint presentations from the 2011 BOS will
be made available for review on-line at:
cba.ulm.edu/cber
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The Change in Real Louisiana GSP
State
2005-2007 2007-2009
Rank % change Rank % change
Oregon 1 13.6% 31 -2.7%
Wyoming 2 13.0% 1 19.6%
Utah 3 12.5% 11 0.2%
Texas 4 10.2% 15 -0.3%
Arizona 5 10.0% 46 -5.9%
Louisiana 50 -6.5% 6 4.1%
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State
2005-2007 2007-2009
Rank % change Rank % change
Louisiana 50 -6.5% 6 4.1%
Arkansas 31 3.4% 10 0.6%
Mississippi 21 5.0% 9 0.8%
Texas 4 10.2% 15 -0.3%
The Change in Real Louisiana GSP continued
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Metropolitan Area
2005-2007 2007-2009
State Rank
% change
State Rank
% change
Lafayette 1 16.7% 3 4.6%
Alexandria 2 6.7% 7 -2.3%
Shreveport-Bossier City 3 3.3% 1 9.3%
Monroe 4 1.9% 6 -1.6%
Baton Rouge 5 -7.9% 4 1.8%
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner 6 -11.3% 2 5.8%
Lake Charles 7 -31.3% 5 0.4%
The Change in Real GSP by LA MSA
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Population Change by MSA: 2000-2010
2000-2010 change in US = 9.7%2000-2010 change in LA = 1.4%
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Population Change in NE Louisiana: 2000-2010
Ouachita/Lincoln Parish: +10,696NELA less Ouach/Lincoln: - 8,800
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Index of population change 1980-2010 (1980=1): US, LA, NELA
Hispanic as % of Population 1980 2010
Louisiana 2.35% 4.25%United States 6.45% 16.35%
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Other Economic Indicators
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New Light Trucks/Vans:
State/Year 2007 2008 2009 2010Louisiana 157,665 126,574 92,105 98,783NE Louisiana 10,201 8,418 6,281 7,057
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New Automobiles:
2007 2008 2009 2010Louisiana 98,083 89,258 65,782 61,637NE Louisiana 4,462 4,376 3,254 3,399
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NE LA Dealer Sample: New Vehicles:
Source: Cross-Sell Reports
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Building Permits:
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Housing Permits Ouachita Parish
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Building Permits 580 516 437 271 232 219Total Cost (millions $) $103.6 $89.5 $68.0 $47.3 $38.5 $37.3
Building Permit Value:
Source: U.S. Census
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% Change Median Price
Rank State % change 2008-10
1 North Dakota 10.2%
2 Oklahoma 4.0%
3 Iowa 3.0%
4 Louisiana 2.6%
5 Nebraska 2.2%
2008-10 Change in Existing Home Prices: Top 5 States
Northeast LA = +3.2%United States = -12.7%
Source: National Association of Realtors
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And the lowest ranking states:
Rank State% change in median price
2008-10
46 California -17.8%
47 Idaho -17.9%
48 Florida -26.4%
49 Arizona -28.6%
50 Nevada -31.8%
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2008 2009 2010 %chg 2008-10
Baton Rouge $165,000 $163,000 $169,600 +2.8%New Orleans $160,500 $160,100 $159,700 -0.5%Monroe $129,000 $134,000 $135,000 +4.7%Shreveport $138,500 $147,000 $156,600 +13.1%
% Change in Median Home Prices: Louisiana MSA’s:
Source: National Association of Realtors
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Home Price less than $200,000 2008 2009 2010Close price $115,000 $118,000 $114,500Price per Sq Foot $71.05 $73.49 $72.11
Home Price Greater Than or Equal to $200,000 2008 2009 2010Close price $252,000 $249,900 $252,000Price per Sq Foot $106.41 $106.33 $107.51
All Existing Homes 2008 2009 2010Close price $128,850 $133,000 $133,000Price per Sq Foot $77.12 $80.81 $79.73
Existing Home Sales in Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Union seem to lack support for a significant price rise…
Source: NE LA Board of Realtors MLS
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2008 2009 2010
Under $200,000 1262 1198 1161
$200,000 and up 290 317 340
Until we note the number of homes sold in Northeast LA:
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010listings 2758 2745 2664 2417 2643sales 1730 1679 1552 1513 1501
Existing homes Market: Ouachita, Morehouse, Lincoln, Union
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And bankruptcy filings in LA lag the Nation: 2007 = 1.0
•Western District 2010 =12,536 (+5.1%)
•Louisiana 2010 = 19,236 (+5.3%)
•U.S (+13.8%)
Source: U.S. Federal Court
Ouachita Parish Foreclosures2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010593 486 601 655 601 650 582
Ouachita foreclosures are down (approx ½ US rate):
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The Labor Market
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Total Covered Employment (Jobs):
Figures as of 2nd qtr 2010: LA Dept of Labor; USBLS.
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Construction:
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Manufacturing:
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Retail Trade:
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Finance and Insurance:
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Health Care & Social Assistance:
*US data contains both education and health care
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Total Employment (excluding Healthcare):
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Unemployed Dec-07 Dec-10
Alexandria 2,546 4,720Baton Rouge 13,529 27,103Houma 2,679 5,213Lafayette 3,596 4,656Lake Charles 3,530 6,379Monroe 3,524 6,139New Orleans 17,072 38,136Shreveport 7,799 12,079
Unemployment Rate (%) Dec-07 Dec-10
Alexandria 3.8 6.7Baton Rouge 3.7 7.1Houma 2.6 5.1Lafayette 3.3 5.6Lake Charles 3.8 6.7Monroe 4.4 7.7New Orleans 3.3 7.0
Shreveport 4.3 6.6
Unemployment by MSA:
Source: Laworks.net
US 12/2010=9.1%LA 12/2010=7.2%
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Dec-09 R Dec-10 R
Total Nonfarm Employment in Louisiana 1,890,000 1,899,300Total Private Non-farm Employment in Louisiana 1,518,700 1,534,700
Dec 2007 R Dec 2009 R Dec 2010 R
Mining & Logging 51,600 47,300 52,300 Oil & Gas Extraction 7,900 8,900 8,600 Crude Petrol & Nat Gas Ext 7,800 8,600 8,000 Support Activities for Mining 39,200 36,400 39,600 Drilling Oil & Gas Wells 9,600 7,300 9,000
Louisiana Employment:
LA continued weekly unemployment claims 2009-10 = -24.2%US continued weekly unemployment claims 2009-10 = -20.5%
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Regional Outlook
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Probable s sources of significant Job growth in Northeast Louisiana for the next 2-5 years:
•Manufacturing•Autos•Food processing
•Telecommunications
•Financial Services/Information
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5 year estimates of growth (range):
% change based on aggregate of Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland, Union Parishes
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The Impact of Gardner Denver Thomas
F/T Equivalent Jobs HH Income
Direct Effects 230 $9.2 Million
Indirect Effects 300 $7.5 Million
Total Impact 530 $16.7 Million
Regarding the effect on NELA of State funding cuts to higher education, consider first the annual impact of Gardner Denver Thomas:
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Now consider the combined impact of ULM, Tech, and Grambling on NELA.
100% of Spending
F/T equivalent
Jobs HH IncomeFrom University Spending 5,830 $340 millionFrom Student Spending 2,020 $37 million
Total Impact 7,850 $377 million
5% Cut in SpendingF/T equivalent
Jobs HH Income
-292 -$17.0 million
-101 -$1.85 million
-393 -$18.85 million
And a 5% cut in State funding:
Source of data: Louisiana Board of Regents
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Thank you for Supporting the Tech/ULM Business Outlook Summit.
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