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金融、車、消費材、不動産など、2016年には全米で数兆円規模の市場へ出典:Latitude Research and Shareable Magazine
THE ATLAS OF E C O N O M I C C O M P L E X I T Y
Hausmann, Hidalgo et al.
M A P P I N G P A T H S T O P R O S P E R I T Y
MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 21
Diversity (kc,0):Diversity is related to the number of
products that a country is connected to. This is equal to the number of links that this country has in the network. In this
example, using a subset of the 2009 data, the diversity of Netherlands is 5, that of
Argentina is 3, and that of Gana is 1.
Ubiquity (kp,0):Ubiquity is is related to the number of countries that a product is connected to. This is equal to the number of links that this product has in the network. In this example, using a subset of the 2009 data, the ubiquity of Cheese is 2, that of Fish is 3 and that of Medicaments is 1.
ARGENTINA (ARG)
GHANA (GHA)
X-RAY MACHINES
MEDICAMENTS
CREAMS AND POLISHES
CHEESE
FROZEN FISH
NETHERLANDS (NLD)
F I G U R E 2 . 1 :
U B I Q U I T Y :Ubiquity is is related to the number of countries that a product is connected to. This is equal to the number of links that this product has in the network. In this example, using a subset of the 2009 data, the ubiquity of Cheese is 2, that of Fish is 3 and that of Medicaments is 1.
D I V E R S I T Y :Diversity is related to the number of
products that a country is connected to. This is equal to the number of links that this country has in the network. In this example, using a
subset of the 2009 data, the diversity of Netherlands is 5, that of Argentina
is 3, and that of Gana is 1.
Graphical explanation of diversity and ubiquity.「国の多様性」と「生産物の偏在性」の関係
「国の多様性」と「生産物の偏在性」の関係
MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 25
I N F O R M AT I O N B O X 2 . 2 : T H E W O R L D ’ S M O S T A N D L E A S T C O M P L E X P R O D U C T S
Table 2.2.1 and Table 2.2.2 show respectively the products that rank highest and lowest in the complexity scale. The difference between the world’s most and less complex products is stark. The most complex products are sophistica-ted chemicals and machinery that tend to emerge from organizations where a large number of high skilled individuals participate. The world’s least complex
products, on the other hand, are raw minerals or simple agricultural products. The economic complexity of a country is connected intimately to the com-
plexity of the products that it exports. Ultimately, countries can only increase their score in the Economic Complexity Index by becoming competitive in an increasing number of complex industries.
T A B L E 2 . 2 . 1 : T O P 5 P R O D U C T S B Y C O M P L E X I T Y
Product Code (SITC4) Product Name Product Community Product Complexity Index
7284 Machines & appliances for specialized particular industries Machinery 2.27
8744 Instrument & appliances for physical or chemical analysis Chemicals & Health 2.21
7742 Appliances based on the use of X-rays or radiation Chemicals & Health 2.16
3345 Lubricating petrol oils & other heavy petrol oils Chemicals & Health 2.10
7367 Other machine tools for working metal or metal carbide Machinery 2.05
T A B L E 2 . 2 . 2 : B O T T O M 5 P R O D U C T S B Y C O M P L E X I T Y
Product Code (SITC4) Product Name Product Community Product Complexity Index
3330 Crude oil Oil -3.00
2876 Tin ores & concentrates Mining -2.63
2631 Cotton, not carded or combed Cotton, Rice, Soy & Others -2.63
3345 Cocoa beans Tropical Agriculture -2.61
7367 Sesame seeds Cotton, Rice, Soy & Others -2.58
We use this measure to construct a matrix that connects each country to the products that it makes. The entries in the matrix are 1 if country exports product with Revealed Comparative Advantage larger than 1, and o otherwise. Formally we define this as the matrix, where
is the matrix summarizing which country makes what, and is used to construct the product space and our measures of economic complexity for countries and products. In our research we have played around with cutoff values other than 1 to construct the matrix and found that our results are robust to these changes.
Going forward, we smooth changes in export volumes induced by the price fluctuation of commodities by using a modified definition of RCA in which the denominator is averaged over the previous three years.
T E C H N I C A L B O X 2 . 2 : W H O M A K E S W H AT ?
When associating countries to products it is important to take into account the size of the export volume of countries and that of the world trade of prod-ucts. This is because, even for the same product, we expect the volume of ex-ports of a large country like China, to be larger than the volume of exports of a small country like Uruguay. By the same token, we expect the export volume of products that represent a large fraction of world trade, such as cars or footwear, to represent a larger share of a country’s exports than products that account for a small fraction of world trade, like cotton seed oil or potato flour.
To make countries and products comparable we use Balassa’s definition of Revealed Comparative Advantage or RCA. Balassa’s definition says that a coun-try has Revealed Comparative Advantage in a product if it exports more than its “fair” share, that is, a share that is equal to the share of total world trade that the product represents. For example, in 2008, with exports of $42 billion, soy-beans represented 0.35% of world trade. Of this total, Brazil exported nearly $11 billion, and since Brazil’s total exports for that year were $140 billion, soybeans accounted for 7.8% of Brazil’s exports. This represents around 21 times Brazil’s “fair share” of soybean exports (7.8% divided by 0.35%), so we can say that Brazil has revealed comparative advantage in soybeans.
Formally, if represents the exports of country in product , we can express the Revealed Comparative Advantage that country has in product as:
28 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY
Shows the relationship between economic complexity and income per capita obtained after controlling for each country’s natural resource exports. After including this control, through the inclusion of the log of natural resource exports per capita, economic complexity and natural resources explain 73% of the variance in per capita income across countries.
SDNCMR
VEN
GHA
TJK
CIV
IRN
LAOMLI
AUS
MOZ
NCC
MRT
CUB
ETH
HND
ZMB
TZA
MARPER
UZB
YEM
JAMGEO
O
KWT
MDG
ECU
MUS
SYRNGA
UGA
PRY
MNGGTM
MKDTKM
ZWE
ARG
PAK
LBR
KGZ
EGY
BWA
GAB
NZL
ALB
TTO
SEN
CHL
IDN
DZA
PNGPHL
BRA
GIN
URY
LKA
ZAF
KEN
COL
BOL
VNM
SLV
GRC
TUNNAM
BGD
CANKHM
IND
AREMWI
RUS
LVA
BGR
KAZ
BIH
TUR
UKR
LTU
PRT
QAT
OMN
EST
CRILBY
DOM
HKG
MYS
MDA
JOR
BELLBN
SRB
PAN
POL
ESP
DNK
ISR
HRV
NLD
ROU
MEX
AGO
THA
IRL
CHN
NOR
BLR
SVK
ITAUSA
SGP
GBRFIN
HUNKOR
SAU
CZE
FRA
SWE
AUTCOG
CHE
DEU
SVN
JPNAZE
-2 -1 0 1 2
Incom
e per
capit
a con
trollin
g for
initia
l inco
me an
d prop
ortion
of na
tural
resou
rce ex
ports
per c
apita
in lo
gs [2
008]
Economic Complexity Index controlling for initial income and proportionof natural resource exports per capita in logs [2008]
-1-.5
0.5
11.5
R2 = 0.73
F I G U R E 3 . 2 :
Shows the relationship between income per capita and the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for countries where natural resource exports are larger than 10% of GDP (red) and for those where natural resource exports are lower than 10% of GDP (blue). For the latter group of countries, the Economic Complexity Index accounts for 75% of the variance. Countries in which the levels of natural resource exports is relatively high tend to be signi!cantly richer than what would be expected given the complexity of their economies, yet the ECI still correlates strongly with income for that group.
0 1 2Economic Complexity Index [2008]
GDP p
er ca
pita i
n USD
[200
9]
105
104
103
-1-2-3
ALB
ARG
AUS AUTBEL
BGD
BGR
BIH
BLR
BRA
CAN
CHE
CHN
CIV
COLCRICUB
CZE
DEU
DNK
DOM
EGY
ESP
EST
ETH
FINFRA
GBR
GEO
GHA
GRC
GTM
HKG
HND
HRV HUN
IDN
IND
IRL
ISR
ITA
JAM
JOR
JPN
KENKGZ
KHM
KOR
LBN
LKA
LTULVA
MAR
MDA
MDG
MEX
MKD
MUS
MWI
MYS
NIC
NLD
NZL
PAK
PAN
PHL
POL
PRT
PRY
ROU
SEN
SGP
SLV
SRB
SVK
SVN
SWE
SYR
THATUN
TUR
TZA
UGA
UKR
URY
USA
ZAF
ZWE
AGO
ARE
AZE
BOL
BWA
CHL
CMR
COG
DZA
ECU
GAB
GIN
IRN
KAZ
KWT
LAO
LBR
LBY
MLI
MNG
MOZ
MRT
NAM
NGA
NOR
OMN
PER
PNG
QAT
RUS
SAU
SDN
TJK
TKM
TTO
UZB
VEN
VNMYEM ZMB
R2 = 0.75
F I G U R E 3 . 1 :
「多様性」と「1人あたりの国民所得」の関係