Prepared for:
July 3, 2019
2018: Retail Channel Blueberry Performance -amended
Contents
Methodology page 3
Reading Key page 4
Executive Summary page 5
Fresh Fruits & Vegetables page 10
Fresh Berries page 19
Frozen Fruits & Vegetables page 36
Frozen Berries page 45
Wild Blueberries (Frozen) page 59
Mixed Berries (Frozen) page 74
Appendix page 80
2 Commissioned by:
Methodology
Data Source: Nielsen U.S. ScanGeographies: Total U.S. x AOCDate(s): Calendar Years
2015: 52-weeks ending 01/02/16 2016: 52-weeks ending 12/31/16 2017: 52-weeks ending 12/30/17 2018: 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Fresh and Frozen “Fruits and Vegetables” differ from Nielsen definition of Total Produce and Total Frozen department. This way we can make like comparisons across fruit and vegetable categories in both departments.Terms:
CAGR = compound annual growth ratePounds=Volume=EQ: These are terms used interchangably throughout this presentation to reference the weight of an item(s) sold at retail.
3 Commissioned by:
How to Read This Presentation*
All retail sales numbers are Total U.S. unless specified otherwise
Purple in charts and graphs signifies All Berries/Total Berries
Green in charts and graphs signifies organic
Blue in charts and graphs signifies blueberries
Red in charts and graphs signifies strawberries
Darker color shades indicate reference to dollars
Lighter color shades indicate a reference to volume
*Some exceptions to this convention exist. Please pay careful attention to titles and labels when reviewing individual slides.
4 Commissioned by:
Executive Summary: fresh
5
Key Findings Perspective
Fresh blueberries gained +$139 million in 2018. By contrast the second biggest growth in actual dollars was raspberries at $48 million and strawberries gained nearly $43 million.
Fresh blueberries gained +9.3% in dollars versus the previous year. Fresh blueberries produced the highest year over year percentage dollar growth of any of the top 15 fresh fruit & vegetable categories.
Fresh blueberries have consistently produced dollar gains dating back to 2016.
The CAGR since 2016 is +8.2%. By contrast strawberry CAGR has been +2.3%.
Fresh blueberries have consistently produced volume gains dating back to 2016.
The CAGR since 2016 is +6.5%. By contrast strawberry CAGR has been +1.8%.
Commissioned by:
Executive Summary: fresh
6
Key Findings Perspective
Per capita consumption of fresh blueberries increased +4.4% vs. year ago.
Americans consume about 1.1 pounds of blueberries annually (purchased in the retail channel).
Organic sales across all berry segments combined were up +12.6%. Organic sales for all fresh fruits and vegetables were up +8.6%.Fresh berries gained a nearly 45% higher growth rate.
Fresh organic blueberries grew +33.7% in dollars. Fresh conventional blueberries grew +5.7% in 2018.
Fresh blueberries gained nearly +18 million pounds. About +8 million in conventional and +10 million in organic.
Fresh organic blueberries were responsible for more than half of all blueberry volume gains over the previous year.
Commissioned by:
Executive Summary: fresh
7
Key Findings Perspective
Fresh organic blueberries gained almost 3 points of blueberry dollar share.
Organic 12.8 share in 2017; rose to 15.7 share in 2018. Fresh organic share gains do not appear to be as a result of cannibalization of conventional sales.
Organic blueberries’ pricing slipped the last two years declining -9.4% in 2018
During that same two-year period organic strawberries’ pricing increased +4.6%.
18 oz., 6oz., and 11oz. ranked #1, #2, #3 in pack sizes selling. The top 3 blueberry pack sizes captured 85.7% of dollars and 83.6% of blueberry volume in 2018.
Commissioned by:
Executive Summary: frozen
8
Key Findings Perspective
Frozen blueberries produced $231 million in 2018. Blueberries were the #5 frozen fruit and vegetable segment…and the #1 frozen fruit segment.
Frozen blueberries were nearly flat (-0.2%) in dollars. Mixed Fruit made relatively large gains at +9.6%.
Frozen blueberries were up (+5.6%) in volume. Frozen blueberries percentage volume growth was higher than any other berry segment.
Frozen blueberries sold nearly 69 million pounds. They were #3 in volume behind strawberries and mixed fruit.
Commissioned by:
Executive Summary: frozen
9
Key Findings Perspective
Frozen blueberry per capita consumption is 0.21 lbs. per year through the retail channel.
Per capita consumption of frozen blueberries is about the same as strawberries, and increased +4.7% vs. year ago.
Organic blueberries grew +18.4% or +1.3 million pounds in volume in 2018.
This compared to conventional growth of +4.0% or +2.3 million pounds. Organic blueberries’ 16.0 share in 2017; rose to 17.7 share in 2018.
Conventional and organic prices have trended down since 2016, -6.0% and -6.8% respectively in 2018.
This downward trend is true for strawberries, raspberries and blackberries as well.
Commissioned by:
FRESH FRUITS & VEGETABLES
10
Fruits & Veg: fresh - trends
Dollars
+ 2.0%
Volume (EQ)
-0.1%
$59.9 billion in 2018
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/1811 Commissioned by:
Fruits & Trends: fresh - organics
+ 8.6%
$5.5 billion in 2018
12 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Fruits & Veg: fresh - top 15 dollars
13
Chg. vs. 2017 +1.6% -3.2% +2.4% +2.4% -1.0% -3.2% +1.6% +5.3% +3.0% +5.6% -4.2% +9.3% +0.4% +5.9% +0.5%
Blueberries had the highest year over year percentage dollar growth of any of the top fruit and vegetable categories.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries exhibit relatively consistent year over year growth versus the top dollar generators.
Since 2016, Blueberries have been a top 3 percentage growth category.
Fruits & Veg: fresh - top 15 dollars
14 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/28/18Commissioned
by:
Fruits & Veg: fresh - top 15 volume
15
Chg. vs. 2017 -2.4% -3.0% +1.6% -3.6% +1.5% -1.4% -2.1% +1.7% +5.9% +0.2% +0.8% +18.3% -4.5% -9.8% -1.1%
Only strawberries made the top 15 fruit and vegetable categories; blueberries were #26 in volume with 362M pounds sold in 2018.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Fruits & Veg: fresh - top 15 volume
16
Strawberries are the only berry segment in the top 15 volume generators, coming in at number 10.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Fruits: fresh - top 15 dollars
17
Chg. vs. 2017 -3.2% -1.0% -3.2% +1.6% +5.3% +5.6% +9.3% +0.4% +5.7% +6.0% -14.2% +6.7% -3.7% -0.2% +3.4%
Blueberries were the #7 top-selling fruit in 2018, with higher percentage growth than raspberries or strawberries.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Fruits: fresh - top 15 volume
18
Chg. vs. 2017 -2.4% +1.6% -3.6% -2.1% +5.9% +0.2% +18.3% -1.1% +2.8% -7.4% +12.1% +5.2% +0.7% +12.3% 0.0%
Up 5.2%, blueberries had the 5th highest percentage volume growth of any fresh fruit.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
FRESH BERRIES
19
Blueberries percentage dollar growth was double that of the berry category and 50% higher than raspberries.
All Berries: fresh - 2018
20
2018
Berries Dollars Dollars % Chg Dollar Share Volume Lbs Volume Lbs % Chg Volume Lbs Share
STRAWBERRIES $2,691,229,006 +1.6% 45.8% 1,042,325,166 +0.2% 63.7%
BLUEBERRIES $1,636,405,902 +9.3% 27.9% 361,967,083 +5.2% 22.1%
RASPBERRIES $842,152,266 +6.0% 14.3% 105,907,501 +2.9% 6.5%
BLACKBERRIES $529,103,074 +4.5% 9.0% 88,615,384 +3.1% 5.4%
A/0 BERRIES $122,725,616 +4.9% 2.1% 21,187,635 +14.3% 1.3%
CRANBERRIES $48,588,673 -1.3% 0.8% 17,533,896 -1.8% 1.1%
ALL BERRIES $5,870,204,537 +4.6% 100.0% 1,637,536,665 +1.7% 100.0%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries generated more than 3 times the growth of strawberries in actual dollars in 2018 versus the previous year.
Blueberries gained +$139 million in 2018.
All Berries: fresh – dollars by year
21 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
65% of berry category volume growth was generated by blueberries in 2018.
Year over year strawberries were flat.
All Berries: fresh – volume by year
22 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
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All Berries: fresh - pricing
23
Blueberries experienced the highest percentage price increase versus the previous year at +3.9%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Per capita consumption of fresh blueberries increased 4.4% vs. year ago.
All Berries: fresh - per capita consumption
*Per capita figures are calculated using volume sales and U.S. census data, thus only provide a directional measure of consumption
24
Consumption 2017 2018 % Chg
ALL BERRIES 4.94 lbs. 4.99 lbs. +1.1%
STRAWBERRIES 3.19 lbs. 3.18 lbs. -0.5%
BLUEBERRIES 1.05 lbs. 1.10 lbs. +4.4%
RASPBERRIES 0.32 lbs. 0.32 lbs. +2.3%
BLACKBERRIES 0.26 lbs. 0.27 lbs. +2.4%
A/O BERRIES 0.06 lbs. 0.06 lbs. +12.0%
CRANBERRIES 0.05 lbs. 0.05 lbs. -2.4%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: fresh - share
25
Dollar Sales 2015 2016 2017 2018
BLUEBERRIES $1.29B $1.39B $1.50B $1.64B
TOTAL BERRIES $5.11B $5.47B $5.61B $5.87B
Blueberry contribution to both total berries and total fruits and vegetables has increased steadily
Dollar Sales 2015 2016 2017 2018
BLUEBERRIES $1.29B $1.39B $1.50B $1.64B
TOTAL FRUITS/VEG $56.58B $58.35B $58.73B $59.88B
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
All Berries: fresh – organic – dollars & volume
26
Organic berry growth outpaced total organic fruits and vegetables in dollars by nearly 45%, up +12.6%
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL +5.0% +0.3% +3.4%
ORGANIC +27.7% +21.9% +12.6%
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL +2.3% +2.4% +1.1%
ORGANIC +30.0% +18.2% +10.4%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/28/18Commissioned
by:
All Berries: fresh - volume - organic
2018
27
Organic blueberries grew nearly +48% in volume in 2018.
Organic blueberries were responsible for more than half of all blueberry volume gains over the previous year.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: fresh – organic – dollars & volume
28
Organic blueberries have had steady growth in recent years with 2018 volume growth at almost 50%.
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL +5.3% +5.1% +5.7%
ORGANIC +37.3% +26.8% +33.7%
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL +8.4% +3.5% +2.5%
ORGANIC +36.9% +30.0% +47.7%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: fresh – organic share
29
Organic blueberries gained almost 3 points of blueberry dollar share.
Organic share gains do not appear to be as a result of cannibalization of conventional sales.
Dollars 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL $1,305,286,261 $1,379,437,720
ORGANIC $192,130,487 $256,968,182
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: fresh – organic share
30
Organic blueberries gained +2.4 points of blueberry dollar share.
Organic share gains do not appear to be as a result of cannibalization of conventional sales.
Volume 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL 323,216,925 331,159,959
ORGANIC 20,863,324 30,870,124
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: fresh – pricing by organic
31
Conventional blueberry prices edged up +3.2% versus last year.
Organic blueberries’ pricing slipped the last two years declining -9.4% in 2018.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: fresh - pack size
32
The top 3 blueberry pack sizes captured 85.7% of dollars and 83.6% of blueberry volume in 2018.
2018 2018
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: fresh - pack size
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18 oz. and 11 oz. pack sizes generated the greatest actual dollar gains versus the previous year.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: fresh - pack size
34
Relatively small pack sizes deliver the highest retail dollars per pound
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
FROZEN FRUITS & VEGETABLES
35
Fruits & Veg: frozen - trends
Dollars
+ 4.1%
Volume (EQ)
+3.3%
$5.9 billion in 2018
36 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
89.9%
10.1%
Dollar Share
Conventional Organic
Fruits & Veg: frozen - organics
+ 12.3%
$320 million in 2018
37 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Fruits & Veg: frozen - top 15 dollars
38
Blueberries were the top-selling frozen berry in 2018.
Chg. vs. 2017 +3.5% +5.4% +3.9% 0.0% -0.2% -1.8% +9.6% +35.6% -0.2% -2.0% -0.9% -2.6% +2.9% +4.0% -2.4%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Fruits & Veg: frozen - top 15 dollars
39
Blueberries rank number 5 in dollars amongst all frozen fruits and vegetables categories.
Strawberries rank number 10 in dollars amongst all frozen fruits and vegetables categories.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Fruits & Veg: frozen - top 15 volume
40
Frozen blueberry volume was up nearly 6% vs. 2017.
Chg. vs. 2017 +3.6% +3.3% +2.7% -0.4% -1.5% 0.0% +0.3% +12.0% +5.6% +25.8% -3.5% +2.8% +5.0% -3.5% +2.3%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Fruits & Veg: frozen - top 15 volume
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Blueberries rank number 9 in volume amongst all frozen fruits and vegetables categories.
Strawberries rank number 7 in volume amongst all frozen fruits and vegetables categories.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Fruits: frozen - top 15 dollars
42
Blueberries were the top-selling frozen fruit in dollar sales for 2018, and berries accounted for four of the top 6 categories.
Chg. vs. 2017 -0.2% +9.6% -2.0% -0.9% +2.7% -5.2% +5.8% -2.0% -1.8% -4.8% +13.1% +138.2% -19.1% +26.7% +9.3%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Fruits: frozen - top 15 dollars
43
While blueberries were #1 in dollars sold in 2018, they were #3 in volume.
Chg. vs. 2017 +0.3% +12.0% +5.6% +2.8% +3.2% +3.8% -1.1% +12.9% +2.5% -3.4% +10.0% -23.4% +4.5% +147.9% -1.1%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
FROZEN BERRIES
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All Berries: frozen
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2018
Berries Dollars Dollars % Chg Dollar Share Volume Lbs Volume Lbs % Chg Volume Lbs Share
BLUEBERRIES $230,582,572 -0.2% 35.1% 68,880,279 +5.6% 33.4%
STRAWBERRIES $195,652,045 -2.0% 29.8% 72,904,902 +0.3% 35.4%
A/O BERRIES $174,039,365 -0.9% 26.5% 50,558,116 +2.8% 247.5%
RASPBERRIES $41,040,992 -5.2% 6.2% 9,240,834 +2.5% 4.5%
BLACKBERRIES $13,400,744 -4.8% 2.0% 3,912,748 -3.4% 1.9%
CRANBERRIES $2,654,342 +9.3% 0.4% 685,459 +4.5% 0.3%
ALL BERRIES $657,370,060 -1.3% 100.0% 206,182,388 +2.7% 100.0%
Frozen blueberries dollar sales were flat versus 2017.
Frozen blueberries percentage volume growth was higher than any other berry.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
All Berries: frozen – dollars
46
Blueberries outperformed the other berry segments (cranberries excluded) in year over year percentage change in 2018.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries outperformed the other berry segments in year over year percentage and actual growth in 2018.
Blueberries generated +3.6 million additional pounds in 2018.
All Berries: frozen – volume
47 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Per capita consumption of frozen blueberries is about the same as strawberries, and increased +4.7% vs. year ago.
All Berries: frozen – per capita consumption
*Per capita figures are calculated using volume sales and U.S. census data, thus only provide a directional measure of consumption
48
Consumption 2017 2018 % Chg
ALL BERRIES 0.62 lbs. 0.63 lbs. 2.0%
STRAWBERRIES 0.22 lbs. 0.22 lbs. -0.3%
BLUEBERRIES 0.20 lbs. 0.21 lbs. 4.7%
A/O BERRIES 0.15 lbs. 0.15 lbs. 2.2%
RASPBERRIES 0.03 lbs. 0.03 lbs. 1.8%
BLACKBERRIES 0.01 lbs. 0.01 lbs. -4.2%
CRANBERRIES 0.00 lbs. 0.00 lbs. 3.7%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
All Berries: frozen - organic
49
Conventional dollars decreased slightly, while organics increased +9.0% in dollars.
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL -0.7% -7.2% -3.2%
ORGANIC +13.5% +0.5% +9.0%
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL +0.3% -5.0% +1.3%
ORGANIC +20.9% +1.0% +14.3%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
All Berries: frozen - volume - organic
50
Organic blueberries grew +18.4% in volume in 2018.
2018
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: frozen - organic
51
Both conventional and organic frozen berries experienced volume growth in 2018.
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL -0.2% -5.8% -2.2%
ORGANIC +11.8% +3.7% +10.4%
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL +1.4% -2.0% +4.0%
ORGANIC +19.3% +6.8% +18.4%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: frozen – organic share
52
Organic blueberries dollar growth failed to offset the dollar declines in conventional blueberries.
Volume for conventional and organic blueberries gained ground.
Dollars 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL $193,948,155 $189,714,422
ORGANIC $37,005,771 $40,868,151
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: frozen – organic share
53
Both conventional and organic blueberries grew versus the previous year. However, organics gained +1.3 pts. of volume share.
Volume 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL 58,232,330 60,577,163
ORGANIC 7,014,723 8,303,115
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: frozen – pack size
54
The top 3 blueberry pack sizes captured 63.6% of dollars and 64.3% of blueberry volume in 2018.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: frozen – pack size
55
40 oz., 64 oz. and 8 oz. sizes generated the greatest dollar and volume gains versus the previous year.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: frozen – pack size
56
Relatively smaller pack sizes like 10oz. And 8 oz. generated the highest price per pound.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
All Berries: frozen - pricing
57
Blueberries pricing has trended down over the last four years. That downward trend is increasing. Volume gains have not offset the pricing declines, leading to fewer dollars to the segment in 2018.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: frozen – pricing by organic
58
Conventional and organic prices have trended down since 2016.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
WILD BLUEBERRIES
(FROZEN)
59
Wild BBs: frozen
60
Wild blueberries gained ground in dollar and volume sales versus 2017.
AO blueberries gained volume over the previous year but dollars declined during the same period.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Frozen Berry Dollars Dollars % Chg Dollar Share Volume Lbs Volume Lbs % Chg Volume Lbs Share
AO BLUEBERRIES 175,414,310$ -2.4% 76% 53,211,106 3% 77%
WILD BLUEBERRIES 55,168,263$ 7.5% 24% 15,669,174 13% 23%
ALL FRZ BLUEBERRIES 230,582,572$ -0.2% 100% 68,880,279 5% 100%
2018
Commissioned by:
Wild BBs: frozen – dollars
61
AO blueberries are flat to down in each of the past three years.
Wild blueberries achieved +5% growth each year with a +7.5% increase in 2018.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Wild BBs: frozen – dollars
62
Wild blueberries are gaining in actual dollars and share of dollars of the frozen blueberry segment.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Wild BBs: frozen – dollar share
63
Overall frozen berries have experienced dollar declines in recent years in large part due to dips in strawberry and AO blueberry sales.
Wild BBs have been a ‘winner’ in terms of dollar share growth.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Wild BBs: frozen – volume
64
Wild blueberries’ annual volume growth increased each year.
AO blueberries posted a +3% gain in 2018 but has not yet rebounded to its 2016 peak volume year.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Wild BBs: frozen – volume
65
Wild blueberries are gaining in actual volume and share of volume of the frozen blueberry segment.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Wild BBs: frozen – volume share
66
Every segment of frozen berries gained volume in 2018 exceptblackberries.
AO blueberries maintained volume share while Wild BBs gained +0.8 pts. in 2018 versus 2017.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Wild BBs: frozen – pricing
67
Prices for Wild and AO blueberries continued their annual downward trend again in 2018, dipping -$0.13 and -$0.18, respectively.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
2015 2016 2017 2018
ALL FRZ BLUEBERRIES 3.71$ 3.66$ 3.54$ 3.35$
AO BLUEBERRY 3.67$ 3.61$ 3.48$ 3.30$
WILD BLUEBERRY 3.90$ 3.89$ 3.75$ 3.52$
Average Retail Price/Lb.
Commissioned by:
Wild BBs: frozen – pack size
68
The 48 ounce pack is the highest volume and dollar pack size capturing nearly half of Wild BB volume and dollars.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Wild BBs: frozen – pack size
69
The 40 ounce pack size (third in segment share) gained the most ground in volume and dollars vs. the previous year.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Wild BBs: frozen – organic dollars
70
Organics were a bright spot for AO blueberries’ dollar sales as they continued their 3-year growth trend.
Wild blueberries primarily relied on conventional product to drive its dollar growth.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Wild BBs: frozen – organic volume
71
Volume trends essentially mirrored dollars when reviewing the conventional/organic segments. However, conventional AO blueberries did exhibit a “slight” upward tick in volume in the most recent year.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Dollar Share Volume Share Avg. $/Lb.
AO BLUEBERRY - Conv. 78.9% 85.5% 3.04$
AO BLUEBERRY - Organic 21.1% 14.5% 4.79$
WILD BLUEBERRY - Conv. 92.9% 96.2% 3.40$
WILD BLUEBERRY - Organic 7.1% 3.8% 6.61$
2018
Wild BBs: frozen – organic share
72
Organics captured nearly 3x the dollar share and more than 4x the volume share in AO blueberries as compared to Wild BBs.
Organic Wild BBs are priced +$1.82/lb. higher than organic AO blueberries.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
3x 4x
Commissioned by:
Wild BBs: frozen – pricing by conv./org.
73
Only organic Wild BBs have maintained a relatively (2018 vs. 2017) steady price/lb.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
2015 2016 2017 2018
ORGANIC BLUEBERRIES 5.80$ 5.44$ 5.28$ 4.92$
AO BLUEBERRY 5.62$ 5.32$ 5.17$ 4.79$
WILD BLUEBERRY 7.00$ 6.86$ 6.62$ 6.61$
Organic Price/Lb.
2015 2016 2017 2018
CONV. BLUEBERRIES 3.52$ 3.46$ 3.33$ 3.13$
AO BLUEBERRY 3.48$ 3.38$ 3.24$ 3.04$
WILD BLUEBERRY 3.70$ 3.77$ 3.64$ 3.40$
Conventional Price/Lb.
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MIXED BERRIES
74
Mixed Berries: frozen – critical notes
75
The bulk of mixed berries’ volume is driven by items that do not explicitly state if blueberries are included.
Category Partners believes these items likely contain blueberries based on product descriptions.
Category Partners built a custom aggregate for Mixed Berries – w/ Blueberries that includes these “likely items.” The mixed berry aggregates are listed and defined in the Appendix.
Dollars and volume in this section should be viewed as directional only. Specific volume and dollar sales cannot be determined as the data do not reveal, for example, what percent of a mixed 40 ounce package are blueberries.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Mixed Berries: frozen
76
From 2015 to 2018 Mixed Berries – w/ Blueberries has grown +3.6% in volume each year.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Dollars Dollar % Chg. Dollar Share Volume Volume % Chg. Volume Lbs Share
MIXED BERRIES - W/ BLUEBERRIES 167,173,420$ 0.7% 98.1% 49,135,192 5.1% 98.2%
AO MIXED BERRIES 3,254,428$ -51.6% 1.9% 907,381 -55.0% 1.8%
MIXED BERRIES 170,427,848$ -1.3% 100% 50,042,573 2.6% 100%
2018
Commissioned by:
Mixed Berries: frozen – share
77
Mixed berry items that, likely, contain blueberries have maintained a steady (near) monopoly on segment volume and dollars since 2015.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Mixed Berries: frozen – pricing
78
During the last three years, prices for Mixed Berries – w/ Blueberries have declined $0.15/lb. each year.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
2015 2016 2017 2018
MIXED BERRIES - W/ BLUEBERRIES 3.80$ 3.70$ 3.55$ 3.40$
AO MIXED BERRIES 3.53$ 3.40$ 3.33$ 3.59$
MIXED BERRIES 3.79$ 3.69$ 3.54$ 3.41$
Average Retail Price/Lb.
Commissioned by:
80
APPENDIX
All Berries: fresh – pricing by organic
81 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: fresh - pack size
82 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Blueberries: frozen – pack size
83 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
All Berries: frozen – pricing by organic
84 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18Commissioned
by:
Mixed Berries: frozen – item classification
85 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
MIXED BERRIES - W/ BLUEBERRIES
x TRIPLE BERRY BLEND
x BERRY MEDLEY
x MIXED BERRY
x TRIPLE BERRY MIX
x TRIPLE BERRY
x TRIPLE BERRY MEDLEY
x BERRY BLEND
x FOUR BERRY MIX
STRAWBERRY AND BLUEBERRY MIX
x MIXED BERRY BLEND
BLUEBERRY CHERRY CRANBERRY STRAWBERRY
x BERRY MIX
x TRIPLE BERRY BLASTER
x BERRY TRIO
x BERRY BASKET BLEND
x BERRY EXTREME
BLACKBERRY BLUEBERRY RASPBERRY STRWB
x SUMMER BERRY BLEND
BLUEBERRY STRAWBERRY
BLACKBERRY BLUEBERRY RASPBERRY
x BERRY JUBILEE
x WILD BERRY BLEND
BLUEBERRY RASPBERRY BLEND
x SUMMER HARVEST BERRY BLEND
BANANA BLUEBERRY CRANBERRY MANGO STRWB
CRANBERRY AND BLUEBERRY
x HEALTH BERRY BLEND
x THREE BERRY MIX
BLUEBERRY CRANBERRY
BLUEBERRY RASPBERRY STRAWBERRY
x TRIPLE BERRY BLISS
ACAI BERRY BLUEBERRY STRAWBERRY
BLUEBERRY MARIONBERRY RASPBERRY
x FOUR BERRY BLEND
AO MIXED BERRIES
MIXED BERRY POMEGRANATE
HARVEST BERRIES
ACAI BERRY STRAWBERRY
FOREST BERRY
CRANBERRY BLEND
An ‘X’ next to an item denotes an item that was moved into the custom blueberry aggregate and assumed to contain blueberries.
Commissioned by:
Item Reclassification
In March, 2019, Category Partners delivered a multi-year overview of blueberry sales performance in the retail data channel using Nielsen U.S. Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/28/18 as the source.
The data revealed that Total U.S. pound sales of fresh blueberries were approximately 362 million pounds and were up +5.2% in 2018 vs. the previous year.
As a result of questions from the original presentation, Category Partners purchased from Nielsen, on behalf of USHBC, some additional data detail (time periods) for the 2018 and 2017 calendar years.
Between the delivery of the first data set (and presentation) and the second data purchase, Nielsen received some revised item descriptions (pack size changes). As a result Nielsen made retroactive adjustments to their data coding which revised (downward) their EQ volume/pound numbers.
The data set, necessary, for this Season Analysis contained the exact same Total U.S. geography and 2018 calendar year time period. By contrast the restatement revealed pound sales of about 320 million pounds with a year-over-year growth of +6.4%.
The next slide shows an actual illustration of the changes that Nielsen made and that Category Partners researched and uncovered.
Category Partners is continuing to review these changes to determine if any conclusions should be altered in the original presentation. To-date, it appears as though trends, observations and conclusions remain intact, despite this data restatement and the resulting changes to some of the volume totals.
Should you, the reader, or USHBC have any questions, please contact Category Partners.
86 Commissioned by:
Item Reclassification
87 Commissioned by: