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The South Caucasus:
Crossroads of Conflict
JamesHowcroftGeorge C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
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Crossroads of Conflict
- Intersection of Continents and Cultures
- Mix of Peoples / Religions / Languages
- Convergence of EmpiresRussian
Ottoman
Persian
- Borders Redrawn/Forced Migrations/Ethnic Cleansings
- Post WW I Revisions
- Post USSR Changes continue pattern
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Why NATO and EU should care
The New Frontier of NATO and EU
Border control and trafficking concerns
Alternate energy sources and routes
Occupied territories = conflict flashpoint
But how much does NATO and EU care ?
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A single region in name only
No regional security, economic or political
integration
Similar problems, but different approaches and
role models
Very different relationships with patrons and
protectors
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The Occupied Territories
Nagorno Karabakh
Abkhazia
South Ossetia
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Nagorno Karabakh
1992-1994
Armenian victory
Azeri Territory seized & IDPs
No Peacekeepers
Stalled OSCE-sponsored Talks
Growing Azeri capability ?
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Abkhazia 1992-1994
Russian military role
250,000 Georgian IDPs
Piecekeepers 1994-2008
2008 Russian attack
Russian Bases and Border
Guards
De Facto annexation
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South Ossetia
1992/ 50,000 IDPs
Russian Piecekeepers
Spark for 2008 war
Bases and BorderGuards
De facto annexation
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The six points
Renounce use of force
End hostilities
Free access to HA
Georgian military back to bases
Russian forces return to 7
August positions
International talks on status ofAbkhazia and South Ossetia
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Military Issues
Western assistance limited by conflict application fears
Conscription and Corruption
Underdeveloped junior leaders
Substandard training - frequency, realism, intensity
Limited international deployments by Az and Armenia
Money spent capability
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Border Security Issues
Contested borders
Rugged and isolated borders
Lack of infrastructure and funding
Ethnic groups straddle borders
Protection or trade ? Balance required
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Political Stability
Demographics, migration and brain-drain
Health and education suffer
Fragile institutions - Law of Rulernot
Rule of Law
Organized crime and corruption
Inequality and disillusionment
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Economic Issues
Historical trade routes blocked
Progress but lack of diversification
Remittances
Unattractive environment for investment
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Energy Security
Regional impact of the BTC and BTE Pipelines
Azerbaijan - Outlets and Options
Georgia - Russian Monopoly broken
Armenia - Russian Dependence
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Georgias External Concerns
Occupied Territory
Western integration - EU and NATO
Relationship with Russia
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Azerbaijans External Concerns
Nagorno Karabakh
Energy and Pipeline Politics
Balancing Turkey, Russia, and the West
Iran
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Armenia s External Concerns
Nagorno Karabakh
Closed Borders and Isolation
Turkey and the Genocide
Dependence on Russia
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The Way Ahead
Peace and stability not imminent or automatic
Long-term economic development dependent on conflict
resolution NATO and EU could be useful role models - help withstate capacity building
Russia and Iran see NATO and EU as a threat
Ultimate long-term orientation unclear
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