24 oct 0830h howcroft caucasus 2014.pdf

8/9/2019 24 Oct 0830h HOWCROFT Caucasus 2014.pdf

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The South Caucasus:

Crossroads of Conflict

JamesHowcroftGeorge C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies


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Crossroads of Conflict

- Intersection of Continents and Cultures

- Mix of Peoples / Religions / Languages

- Convergence of EmpiresRussian

Ottoman

Persian

- Borders Redrawn/Forced Migrations/Ethnic Cleansings

- Post WW I Revisions

- Post USSR Changes continue pattern


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Why NATO and EU should care

The New Frontier of NATO and EU

Border control and trafficking concerns

Alternate energy sources and routes

Occupied territories = conflict flashpoint

But how much does NATO and EU care ?


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A single region in name only

No regional security, economic or political

integration

Similar problems, but different approaches and

role models

Very different relationships with patrons and

protectors


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The Occupied Territories

Nagorno Karabakh

Abkhazia

South Ossetia


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Nagorno Karabakh

1992-1994

Armenian victory

Azeri Territory seized & IDPs

No Peacekeepers

Stalled OSCE-sponsored Talks

Growing Azeri capability ?


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Abkhazia 1992-1994

Russian military role

250,000 Georgian IDPs

Piecekeepers 1994-2008

2008 Russian attack

Russian Bases and Border

Guards

De Facto annexation


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South Ossetia

1992/ 50,000 IDPs

Russian Piecekeepers

Spark for 2008 war

Bases and BorderGuards

De facto annexation


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The six points

Renounce use of force

End hostilities

Free access to HA

Georgian military back to bases

Russian forces return to 7

August positions

International talks on status ofAbkhazia and South Ossetia


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Military Issues

Western assistance limited by conflict application fears

Conscription and Corruption

Underdeveloped junior leaders

Substandard training - frequency, realism, intensity

Limited international deployments by Az and Armenia

Money spent capability


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Border Security Issues

Contested borders

Rugged and isolated borders

Lack of infrastructure and funding

Ethnic groups straddle borders

Protection or trade ? Balance required


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Political Stability

Demographics, migration and brain-drain

Health and education suffer

Fragile institutions - Law of Rulernot

Rule of Law

Organized crime and corruption

Inequality and disillusionment


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Economic Issues

Historical trade routes blocked

Progress but lack of diversification

Remittances

Unattractive environment for investment


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Energy Security

Regional impact of the BTC and BTE Pipelines

Azerbaijan - Outlets and Options

Georgia - Russian Monopoly broken

Armenia - Russian Dependence


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Georgias External Concerns

Occupied Territory

Western integration - EU and NATO

Relationship with Russia


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Azerbaijans External Concerns

Nagorno Karabakh

Energy and Pipeline Politics

Balancing Turkey, Russia, and the West

Iran


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Armenia s External Concerns

Nagorno Karabakh

Closed Borders and Isolation

Turkey and the Genocide

Dependence on Russia


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The Way Ahead

Peace and stability not imminent or automatic

Long-term economic development dependent on conflict

resolution NATO and EU could be useful role models - help withstate capacity building

Russia and Iran see NATO and EU as a threat

Ultimate long-term orientation unclear

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24 oct 0830h howcroft caucasus 2014.pdf

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