![Page 1: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan
CSIRO, Australia
AIMES Open Science Conference, Edinburgh
11 May 2010
![Page 2: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
What, how and why?
• What:• Interactions: population, carbon emissions, economy
• How:• Low dimensional dynamic model
• Rates estimated from probability distributions fitted to UN datasets
• Ensembles of model runs to capture uncertainty and variability
• Why:• Trial probabilistic approach
• Qualitative insights, informed by quantitative dynamics
![Page 3: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Model overview
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Cumulative emissions
Population GDP
birthrate
deathrate
energy use per capita
GDP per capita
intrinsic growth rate
Peak temperature change
carbon intensity of energy use
Damagerate
![Page 4: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
State variables
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Cumulative emissions
Population GDP
birthrate
deathrate
energy use per capita
GDP per capita
intrinsic growth rate
Peak temperature change
carbon intensity of energy use
Damagerate
![Page 5: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Rates inferred from probability distributions
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Cumulative emissions
Population GDP
birthrate
deathrate
energy use per capita
GDP per capita
intrinsic growth rate
Peak temperature change
carbon intensity of energy use
Damagerate
![Page 6: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Derived quantities
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Cumulative emissions
Population GDP
birthrate
deathrate
energy use per capita
GDP per capita
intrinsic growth rate
Peak temperature change
carbon intensity of energy use
Damagerate
![Page 7: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Scenarios
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Cumulative emissions
Population GDP
birthrate
deathrate
energy use per capita
GDP per capita
intrinsic growth rate
Peak temperature change
carbon intensity of energy use
Damagerate
![Page 8: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Model overview
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Cumulative emissions
Population GDP
birthrate
deathrate
energy use per capita
GDP per capita
intrinsic growth rate
Peak temperature change
carbon intensity of energy use
Damagerate
![Page 9: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Birth rate vs GDP per capita
Data from http://unstats.un.org and http://data.un.org
![Page 10: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Birth rate vs GDP per capita
![Page 11: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Death rate vs GDP per capita
Data from http://unstats.un.org and http://data.un.org
![Page 12: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Death rate vs GDP per capita
![Page 13: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Energy use per capita vs GDP per capita
Data from http://unstats.un.org and http://data.un.org
![Page 14: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Energy use per capita vs GDP per capita
![Page 15: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Modelled historical distributions: population
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
* World population
![Page 16: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Modelled historical distributions: cumulative emissions
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
* World cumulative emissions
![Page 17: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Modelled historical distributions: world GDP
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
* World GDP
![Page 18: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Mitigation
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
![Page 19: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Climate damages
076.2
9.6211ln
ETpeak
Committed peak temperature change due to cumulative emissions:
(Raupach et al, 2010)
![Page 20: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Climate damages
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Relationship between damage rate and Tpeak:
![Page 21: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Climate damages
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Relationship between damage rate and Tpeak:
![Page 22: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Proportion of runs with Tpeak < 2˚C
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Mitigation completed sooner
Steeper onsetof damages
![Page 23: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Proportion of runs with Tpeak < 2˚C
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Mitigation completed sooner
Steeper onsetof damages
![Page 24: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Proportion of runs with rising GDP per capita
Gentler onsetof damages
Mitigation completed sooner
![Page 25: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Proportion of runs with rising GDP per capita
Gentler onsetof damages
Mitigation completed sooner
![Page 26: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Proportion of runs withTpeak < 2˚C AND rising GDP per capita
Gentler onsetof damages
Mitigation completed sooner
![Page 27: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Population <10 billion only
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Gentler onsetof damages
Mitigation completed sooner
![Page 28: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Max allowable energy use per capita
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Gentler onsetof damages
Mitigation completed sooner
![Page 29: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Energy use per capita vs GDP per capita
Data from http://unstats.un.org and http://data.un.org
![Page 30: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Conclusions
• Data-driven probabilistic approach:• Uses more of the information inherent in datasets
• Allows propagation of variability and uncertainty
• Forward model to 2100 generates distributions of trajectories consistent with system evolving under realistic rates
• Probability distributions are more informative than single trajectories.
• Qualitative dynamics:• Surfaces in mitigation-damage space: steep boundary between
‘poverty trap’ and ‘good life’.
• Population-energy patterns within mitigation-damage scenario.
• Applicability more broadly• Framework suitable for studying other systems in which
environmental limits interact with population and economy.
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
![Page 31: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au
Thank you
CSIRO Land and WaterDr Nicky Grigg
Phone: +61 2 6246 5569Email: [email protected]
![Page 32: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Model assumptions
• Population (P):• birth and death rates.
• Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions since1751 (E)• population size
• energy use per capita
• carbon intensity of energy supply.
• GDP (A):• Endogenous and population-related growth rates
• Climate feedback on GDP:• Global peak temperature change is a function of cumulative carbon
dioxide emissions.
• Temperature changes damage the economy.
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
![Page 33: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Model equations: population
PkPkdt
dPdeathbirth
Population (P)
births/year deaths/year
kbirth is the birth rate per capita (births/person/year)kdeath is the death rate per capita (births/person/year)
Birth and death rates change over time and are a function of GDP per capita
![Page 34: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Model equations: cumulative emissions
Pckdt
dEenergy
Cumulative emissions since 1751 (E)
c is the carbon intensity of energy (gC/MJ)kenergy is the rate of energy use per capita (MJ/person/year)P is the population
Energy use per capita varies over time and is a function of GDP per capita.Carbon intensity per MJ changes over time as an exogenously prescribed mitigation trajectory
![Page 35: A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics Nicky Grigg, Fabio Boschetti, Markus Brede, John Finnigan CSIRO, Australia AIMES Open Science Conference,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515e351550346d46f8b4de7/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
CSIRO. A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics
Model equations: GDP
AkAkAkt
AAP damage2A2Ad
d
Climate-related damage rate
GDP (A)
Population-related GDP growth rate
Intrinsic GDP growth rate
t
P
Pk AP d
d2
= 0 : no population impact on GDP growth
= 1 : population impact on GDP growth rate