From GAIM to AIMES

Guy P. Brasseur

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Chair of IGBP

IGBP II Structure

IGBP Projects

• Atmosphere: IGAC

• Ocean: IMBER and GLOBEC

• Land: GLP

• Ocean-Atmosphere: SOLAS

• Land-Atmosphere: iLEAPS

• Land-Ocean: LOICZ

• Integration: PAGES and AIMES

GLP AIMES

Earth System Science Partnership

HealthHealth StartSTART

The IGBP-AIMES Project

Analysis, Integrtation and Modelling of the Earth System

• Directions:

• Synthesis of the findings from the different IGBP Projects into a coherent framework

• Coupling between the biogeochemical system and the physical climate system (link between IGBP and WCRP)

• Coupling the natural system with the human system (link between IGBP and IHDP)

Institutional Networking

• Better involve research institutions that have a broad approach in Earth System Research

• These institutions could provide resources in support of IGBP science.

• AIMES would offer to these institutions a platform to develop joint projects, discuss scientific achievements, develop a vision for future research, organize specific activities such as model intercomparisons, develop educational activities (PhD and post-doc program) etc.

• This network would establish links between developed and emerging countries.

AIMES Institutional NetworkInitial Suggestions

• NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA - AIMES International Project Office

• Hadley Centre, UK• MPIs - Hamburg, Jena, Mainz, Germany• Frontiers Programme, Japan• CSIRO Complex Systems Programme, Australia• IPSL, France• Tyndall Centre/QUEST, UK & PIK, Germany• EOS, U. of New Hampshire, USA• Columbia University, NY, USA• CAS/Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China• Indian Institute for Science, Bangalore• INPE/CPTEC, Brazil• etc..

Analysis, Integrtation and Modelling of the Earth System

• Specific Actions related to GEIA:

• From stactic (natural) emission inventories to emission models to be coupled with chemical-transport atmospheric models.

• From static (anthropogenic) model inventories to emission models that account for the human dimension (economic models)

• From Carbon-Climate to Carbon-Chemistry-Climate modeling (and intercomparision).

• Dynamic vegetation models

• Scenario activities

Earth System Models of different levels of

complexity

Earth System Modelling

Models of Dynamic Vegetation

Cox et al., Hadley CentreKiang et al., GISS

Dynamic Vegetation in Earth System Models

Carbon-Nitrogen-Climate Interactions

Figure 2. C4MIP Phase 1 experimental design. Ellipses show prescribed inputs, rectangles show model simulations.

Atmosphericcirculation and

physical processes

Terrestrial biosphere

Atmospheric CO2

(3-D monthly means)

AtmosphericCO2 (global

annualmeans)

Sea-surfacetemperatures(2-D monthly

means)

Surfaceclimate

Land surfaceproperties

Fossil fuelCO2

emissions

Land use(2-D annual

means)

NetCO2

fluxes

Ocean-atmosphereCO2 fluxes

Carbon Cycle-Climate InteractionsC4MIP

Atmospheric Chemistry-Ecosystems-Climate

Interactions

Processes affecting stratospheric ozone and temperature

Chemical reaction rates

Stratospheric circulation

PSC formation

Anthropogenic emissions of CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O

Greenhouse gases

Stratospheric ozone

Stratospheric temperature

CH4 oxidation

Stratospheric water vapour

UV

Troposphere-stratosphere exchange

Polar stratospheric ozone depends on a complex system Polar stratospheric ozone depends on a complex system of chemical and dynamical parameters and processesof chemical and dynamical parameters and processes

Stratospheric chlorine & nitrogen oxides concentrations

Vertical propagation of planetary and gravity waves

Interactions between the Physical and Human

Systems

Atmosphere

Anthropo-sphere

EcosystemServices

HumanImpacts

Natural Capital Human-madeCapital(includes Built CapitalHuman Capital,and Social Capital

SolarEnergy

Hydrosphere

Lithosphere

Biosphere

11 Biomes

Introducing the Human Dimensionsinto Earth System Models

Ecosystem function & health

Human welfareand health

• Integrated history of natural and human system change: spatially explicit, mapped globally

• Scale: last 8000 years, with higher spatial and temporal resolution for the last 300 and 100 years

1. Test coupled biophysical-human models against the integrated history

2. Project future of the ‘human enterprise’ with more confidence and skill, based on models tested against the integrated history

IHOPE: Integrated History ofPeople on Earth

Conclusions

• AIMES should be different from GAIM. It will have to define themes (analyses, modeling) that involve many of the IGBP Projects, and has interfaces with WCRP, IHDP and Diversitas.

• It should remain focussed on a limited numbers of initiatives, but these should be challenging and at the frontier of what is possible.

• The focus should be on the science.• The involvement of emerging countries is key.