C h a o s & C o m p l e x S y s t e m s S e m i n a r Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin-Madison
June 21, 2016, 12 Noon–1 PM U W Memorial Union–Mendota Lounge
Art: Eggleston-Google
© B Z Friedlander [email protected] Website In Preparation
Dancing on the Rim of a White-Hot Volcano Can Science, Education, Governments, and the People Preserve Civil Societies In Our Burning World?
Part 1 – October 20, 2015 Part 2 – March 15, 2016 Seeing Real Truths Taking Real Action
“WAKE UP, WAKE UP! The Bri1sh Are Coming!”– Paul Revere’s Ride
CCSS Summer 2016 WUA-‐1cor.pdf
Bernard Z. Friedlander, PhD Noah M. Friedlander Research Professor of Human Development, Emeritus Sophomore Student Department of Psychology, University of Hartford International High School of San Francisco
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Section 3: Big Thoughts & Pretty Pictures
“The Complex Eight-Slice Pizza of Modern Life” Including an illustrated mini-essay on Fractals
Selected from: WAKE UP, AMERICA, Wake Up, World ! CCSS2015.40 © 2015 Bernard Z. Friedlander [email protected]
This special revision of WAKE UP, AMERICA! Wake Up, World–Part 1 restates only an edited Section 3 of the presentation on October 20, 2015. It is prepared for review and expanded discussion at a special session of the Chaos & Complex Systems Seminar at the University of Wisconsin-Madison on Tuesday, June 21, 2016.
In the complete work, Section 1 deals with American and World Impacts of the Climate Crisis
Section 2 deals with Definitions: Simplicity>Intricacy>Complexity>Hyper-complexity>Chaos
These two Sections are NOT included here.
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Looking Far Ahead…
I will start by re-stating a few sentences from the original presentation.
The half-century between about 1970 and about 2020 will be recorded by Intellectual Historians as the time span within which serious thinkers in Big Science recognized the high probability of truth in a profound insight about Human Life on Planet Earth:
Humanity now has some of the same power to shape the course of Nature as, in the past, Nature has had power to shape the course of Humanity.
We now recognize a prevailing way how people have gained and used this power: in the uninhibited burning of fossil fuels that cause massive increases in intolerable living conditions on large parts of earth Earth’s in which decent societies can no longer expect to survive.
This Is The Big Question now:
Can Humans act upon this great insight in a sufficiently short period of time to prevent fulfillment of the worst case predictions of high-end Science?
Present trends will soon go beyond the ability of humanity to prevent changes in climate from making large parts of Planet Earth uninhabitable, though these locations are now occupied by many hundreds of millions of people.
Let us hope that the cheerful, optimistic side of my divided Self is better at forecasting the future of our species than the pessimistic side !
B Z F, Madison, Wisconsin, 2015/16
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Science, Universities, and A Great American Challenge
Eight Major Determinants of American National Interest and World Status: 2016-2050
1. Rapid, steady, measurable progress in transitions toward non-carbon energy systems, and reduction of extreme Climate Change and environmental degradation hazards.
2. Effective balance among containment of, defense against, and involvement in, explosive conflicts involving foreign nations and other adversaries.
3. Continued, deserved recognition of the reliability, relative stability, growth, and transparency of a dollar-based world economy.
4. Deserved recognition for continued progress toward enhanced economic progress for significant percentages of American workers and families.
5. Demonstrably effective private and public sector policies for dealing with the effects of Climate Change and new technologies on employment and employability.
6. Demonstrable progress in healing deep, historic domestic wounds of ethnicity and poverty.
7. Conflict-reducing policy decisions for balancing issues of border protection, immigration and citizenship.
8. Preserving and expanding other elements in American Life, without which the prior seven essentials are almost meaningless: healthy participation in and protection of Education, Law, Religion, Health, Citizen Rights, Opportunities for Economic Mobility, Popular and Fine Arts, Problem-solving Local-State-National Politics, Entertainment, Athletics, Recreation, Experiences with Nature, assurances of Personal Safety, Freedom and Privacy.
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10
10
10
10
10
10
10 _____
100%
Percents Hypothet-‐
ical 4
With These Prompts
LET’S THINK
BIG THOUGHTS !
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Auguste Rodin – The Thinker
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What Could
Il Penseur
Possibly
Be Thinking About?
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An Idealized Pizza of Modern Life
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Slide 9
But…
8
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Modern Art >>>
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They Discover
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The Actual E ight-‐S l ice Complex Pizza of Modern L i fe Habitats
Resources
Human Capital
Deployed Powers
EducaQon, Arts, Sciences, Law
Ideologies
Transport & CommunicaQon
Peace & War
Pizza Topping Details Listed Below
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Eight Slices of The Complex Pizza of Modern Life
Habitats
Deployed Powers
Resources EducaQon, Arts,
Sciences
Ideologies Transport &
CommunicaQon Peace & War
> > > > P i z z a To p p i n g C o n fi g u r a : o n s L i s t e d B e l ow < < < <
T h e R e a l T h i n g
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Human Capital
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Separate Pizza Toppings As with mathema:cal fractals,
Each set of Major Pizza toppings can include an
Indefinitely large number of sets of Minor Pizza toppings.
Each set of flavors can have
Major or minor effects upon
The Final Flavor experience.
Like the mingled flavors in A Good Pizza–
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The World Is
A Very Complicated Network
of
Interconnected and InteracQng Systems
Of Powerful Forces – (–almost like “fractals” ) !
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…and the critical point is–
The continued reasonably smooth functioning of most of the components of our complex modern society
are very largely dependent upon reliable relatively low-cost access to exactly
the same fossil fuels whose continued use will almost certainly make life unlivable
or unaffordable for many people around the world–
including many here in America.
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Examples of Fractals
These fractals were created
MathemaQcally
With a Computer
This Flower and
This Cactus
Are Fractals
Grown Naturally
In a Garden
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FRACTALS: Nested replicates that combine ordered regularity with poten:al variability.
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This spectacular Romanesco Broccoli Combines Nature and The Plant Breeder’s Science.
Each reiteration of form, at any level, exemplifies a potential genetic mutation that did not occur.
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This Peacock’s Fractal Plumage is all about Sex and Mate-‐Selec1on in Reproduc1on.
Each reiteration of form, at any level, exemplifies a potential genetic mutation that did not occur. 18
The relevance of these examples of fractals–in computer creations and In nature–to the crisis fossil fuels and climate change may seem remote,
but it is actually highly explicit.
In all their incredibly variable manifestations, our societies’ profound dependence on carbon-based fuels
that provide the indispensable energy for operation of complex systems in the real world
have a single common structure that is as uniform as the ordered petals on a daisy,
or the colored dots on a peacock’s tail:
None of these “systems” could work in their functional niche without the core element of the energy they require.
Explana1on
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An Idealized Pizza of Modern Life
Selected from: WAKE UP, AMERICA, Wake Up, World ! CCSS 2015.40 © 2015 Bernard Z. Friedlander [email protected]
But… Not Exactly
Edible
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D e t a i l s o f P i z z a T o p p i n g s
Resources
Habitat
Human Capital
9 Toppings
Peace & War
Transport & CommunicaQons
Ideologies
EducaQon, Arts & Sciences
Each “Topping” Represents A Set of “Fractals”
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Habitat
Deployed Power
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D e t a i l s o f P i z z a T o p p i n g s
Water Foods
Materials Fire
Applied InformaQon Applied Technologies
Energies Resource Access & Adequacy
Stability/Variability of Toppings Over Time
Nine Separate Pizza Toppings
Resources
Resources (1&2) 1=immediate local consumpQon
2= commodificaQon
Human Capital
9 Toppings
Peace & War
Transport & CommunicaQons
Ideologies
EducaQon, Arts & Sciences
Habitat
Each “Topping” Represents A Set of “Fractals”
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D e t a i l s o f P i z z a T o p p i n g s
Resources
Human Capital
Human Capital
11 Toppings
Peace & War
Transport & CommunicaQons
Ideologies
EducaQon, Arts & Sciences
Each “Topping” Represents A Set of “Fractals”
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Habitats
Deployed Power
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D e t a i l s o f P i z z a T o p p i n g s
Resources
Deployed Power
Human Capital
Peace & War
Transport & CommunicaQons
Ideologies
EducaQon, Arts & Sciences
Each “Topping” Represents A Set of “Fractals”
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Habitats 13
Toppings
Economic Social Police Judicial Religious Military
Authoritarian Personal (Ego) Corrupted Community EmoQonal
13 Separate Pizza Toppings
Deployed Power
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D e t a i l s o f P i z z a T o p p i n g s
Study Knowledge
InterpretaQon Judgment Decision Authority InspiraQon ImaginaQon
Beauty Talent Skill
Precision Diligence
Thirteen Separate Pizza Toppings
Resources
Human Capital
Peace & War
Transport & CommunicaQons
Ideologies
EducaQon Arts, Sciences, Law
Each “Topping” Represents A Set of “Fractals”
Habitats 13
Toppings
EducaQon, Arts, Sciences, Law
Deployed Power
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D e t a i l s o f P i z z a T o p p i n g s
Religious Tribal Ethnic
Regional NaQonal Social PoliQcal Historical
Professional AestheQc Sartorial AthleQc Gustatory RomanQc
Fourteen Separate Pizza Toppings
Resources
Human Capital
Peace & War
Transport & CommunicaQons
Ideologies
EducaQon Arts, Sciences, Law
Each “Topping” Represents A Set of “Fractals”
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Habitats 14
Toppings
Ideologies
Deployed Power
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D e t a i l s o f P i z z a T o p p i n g s
Walking & Carrying Wheels Roads Rails
Marine AviaQon Electrical
Electronic-‐Digital InformaQon
Entertainment MarkeQng
Eleven Separate Pizza Toppings
Resources
Human Capital
Peace & War
Transport, Media CommunicaQons
Ideologies
Each “Topping” Represents A Set of “Fractals”
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Habitats 13 Toppings
Transport, Media, CommunicaQons
11 Toppings
Deployed Power
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P r o m i s e d D e t a i l s o f P i z z a T o p p i n g s
Calm Tension
Animosity Occasional Incidents Frequent Incidents
Overt Conflict & Combat Dismemberment
DestrucQon
ObliteraQon Victory – Defeat -‐ Truce
Resources
Peace & War
Human Capital
10 Toppings
Peace & War
Transport & CommunicaQons
Ideologies
EducaQon, Arts, Sciences, Law
Each “Topping” Represents A Set of “Fractals”
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Habitats
Ten Separate Pizza Toppings
Deployed Power
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P r o m i s e d D e t a i l s o f P i z z a T o p p i n g s
Resources
Human Capital
Peace & War
Transport & CommunicaQons
Ideologies
EducaQon, Arts, Sciences, Law
Each “Topping” Represents A Set of “Fractals”
Selected from: WAKE UP, AMERICA, Wake Up, World ! CCSS 2015.40 © 2015 Bernard Z. Friedlander [email protected]
Habitats
92 Separate Sets of Pizza Topping “Fractals”
Deployed Power
Sets Of
Fractals 9
Sets Of
Fractals 9
Sets Of
Fractals 11
Sets Of
Fractals 13
Sets Of
Fractals 13
Sets Of
Fractals 14
Sets Of
Fractals 11
Sets Of
Fractals 10
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SPECIAL NOTE ! As you examine the next slide, pay particular attention to
the enumerated Ruler Lines for the
CONFLICT & AGREEMENT SCALES–in the Purple Octagon.
They represent the fantasy thinking of an
Old Principal Investigator on many research grants, namely ME.
I have the fantasy that sometime after I’ve gone to
The Great, Bountiful Laboratory In The Sky,
groups of gifted investigators will have devised methods
with which to make accurate measurements of the
chaotic attributes of human behavior associated with
the “fractal” categories of Systems labeled here.
With those happy discoveries, it will become possible to
hope that some of the more destructive conflicts in
human behavior will become more amenable to
increasingly reliable understanding and reconciliation.
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Selected from: WAKE UP, AMERICA, Wake Up, World ! CCSS2015.40 © 2015 Bernard Z. Friedlander [email protected]
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VERY BIG QUESTION:
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?
THIS : Almost every one of the 92 “Fractal” Pizza Toppings of
Modern Life requires the application of cheap energy derived from the unwise extraction and burning of fossil fuels that are headed toward
making our Planet Earth Increasingly Uninhabitable !
Preserving the highest necessities of civilization will be the greatest challenge that faces those
seeking to preserve the habitability of our Earthly Home.
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So, in conclusion
Let’s go back to the original consideraQons of
Simplicity > Intricacy > Complexity > Hyper-‐Complexity > Chaos.
If you were a poliQcal candidate
Whose biggest task is to get
The voters to like and trust you,
If you were a candidate for very high office,
How would you approach
The agonizing problems of advocaQng
A VERY DIFFERENT, SIMPLER WAY OF LIFE
ON A VERY WIDE SCALE
FOR ALL AMERICANS? 33
If the preceding analysis is reasonably correct, don’t Modern Thinking Humans
Have A Right to Their Expression of Confused Bewilderment?
Like Kermit The Frog, Thinking Humans know it isn’t easy being green. Thinking Humans see how closely this world’s complexity veers toward the edge of widespread chaos. But they don’t know which is the better course: to face the truth they fear, or try to stay happy by pretending truth isn’t there What leader can they trust to guide them? What politician would ask them to make that choice? Climate scientists and other nervous realists face a tough puzzle box on this issue. They’ll have to think long and hard to find strategies that will put climate issues squarely on a political map to get consensus on wise government policies no market can solve entirely on its own.
Thinking Humans’ Meditation
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SECTION 4 – Synthesis
Where Do We Go From Here? A Very Brief Interweave of Nature,
Climate, and Human Behavior
Sec7on 4 is not included in this revision. Some of the ideas it embraces are elaborated in WAKE UP, AMERICA, Wake Up World–Part 2
Presented at the University of Wisconsin-‐Madison March 15, 2016
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SECTION 4 – Synthesis
Where Do We Go From Here?
(Not included in this Version)
This Is The Big Question Now:
Can Humans act upon this great insight in a sufficiently short period of time to prevent fulfillment of the worst case prediction of high-end Science?
Present trends will soon go beyond the ability of humanity to prevent changes in climate that will make large parts of Planet Earth uninhabitable, though these locations are now occupied by many hundreds of millions of people.
I hope the cheerful, optimistic side of my divided Self is better at forecasting the future of our species than the pessimistic side.
B Z F Madison, Wisconsin 2015/16
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Noah M. Friedlander Bernard Z. Friedlander
Bernard and his grandson, Noah, have worked together since Noah was 9-years old, when Noah taught Grandpa how to use a newly acquired computer which Grandpa did not adequately understand. By that time, Noah had taught himself how to use the Sketch-Up computer design program. With Sketch-Up he helped Bernard lay out key components of an aviation system which could continuously indicate to pilots the aerial “buoyancy” of an aircraft in flight. When Noah was 11, he and Bernard learned that the engineers of the Municipal Transportation Agency in San Francisco, where Noah is a native, had been struggling to design a pedestrian safety system of Between-Car-Barriers for the two-car Light Rail Vehicles that circulate widely on San Francisco streets. Working together, Bernard and Noah quickly produced working diagrams for the flexible, self-adjusting system that was subsequently adopted. This system is now in service on LRVs throughout the City. Copies of those original prototype diagrams can be seen, upon request.
As Noah’s studies of environmental and other sciences have advanced at the International High School of San Francisco, his contributions have become increasingly valuable to Bernard in his own work at the University of Wisconsin-Madison: on issues of the larger dimensions of the effects of climate change and environmental impacts on societal and governmental stability in the coming years.
Bernard is now Research Professor of Human Development, Emeritus, in the Department of Psychology at the University of Hartford in West Hartford, CT, and a regularly contributing current member of the Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar in the Department of Physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
His undergraduate major studies at Middlebury College were in English and American Literature and History. At Middlebury, he was Co-Editor of FRONTIERS, Middlebury’s literary periodical.
For several years, before entering graduate school to study scientific methods in research on human development, Bernard served as Personal Assistant to F. Ronald Mansbridge, Director of the American Branch of Cambridge University Press.
A record of some of his scholarly research can be found in Google Scholar, and his professional profile appears on LinkedIn. Bernard resides in Madison and in Bellevue, WA.
About The Authors
This project, as with all my recent and current efforts, is dedicated to the memory of my two late wives– Mary Hannah Mar7n Combs Friedlander
& Mary Alexandra Gibson Masich Friedlander–
From both of whom I gained more than I could ever adequately repay. ~B Z F~
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