“wake&up,&wake&up!&the&bri1sh&are&coming!”–paul&revere’s...

C h a o s & C o m p l e x S y s t e m s S e m i n a r Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin-Madison

June 21, 2016, 12 Noon–1 PM U W Memorial Union–Mendota Lounge

Art: Eggleston-Google

© B Z Friedlander [email protected] Website In Preparation

Dancing on the Rim of a White-Hot Volcano Can Science, Education, Governments, and the People Preserve Civil Societies In Our Burning World?

Part 1 – October 20, 2015 Part 2 – March 15, 2016 Seeing Real Truths Taking Real Action

“WAKE UP, WAKE UP! The Bri1sh Are Coming!”– Paul Revere’s Ride

CCSS Summer 2016 WUA-‐1cor.pdf

Bernard Z. Friedlander, PhD Noah M. Friedlander Research Professor of Human Development, Emeritus Sophomore Student Department of Psychology, University of Hartford International High School of San Francisco

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Section 3: Big Thoughts & Pretty Pictures

“The Complex Eight-Slice Pizza of Modern Life” Including an illustrated mini-essay on Fractals

Selected from: WAKE UP, AMERICA, Wake Up, World ! CCSS2015.40 © 2015 Bernard Z. Friedlander [email protected]

This special revision of WAKE UP, AMERICA! Wake Up, World–Part 1 restates only an edited Section 3 of the presentation on October 20, 2015. It is prepared for review and expanded discussion at a special session of the Chaos & Complex Systems Seminar at the University of Wisconsin-Madison on Tuesday, June 21, 2016.

In the complete work, Section 1 deals with American and World Impacts of the Climate Crisis

Section 2 deals with Definitions: Simplicity>Intricacy>Complexity>Hyper-complexity>Chaos

These two Sections are NOT included here.

2

Looking Far Ahead…

I will start by re-stating a few sentences from the original presentation.

The half-century between about 1970 and about 2020 will be recorded by Intellectual Historians as the time span within which serious thinkers in Big Science recognized the high probability of truth in a profound insight about Human Life on Planet Earth:

Humanity now has some of the same power to shape the course of Nature as, in the past, Nature has had power to shape the course of Humanity.

We now recognize a prevailing way how people have gained and used this power: in the uninhibited burning of fossil fuels that cause massive increases in intolerable living conditions on large parts of earth Earth’s in which decent societies can no longer expect to survive.

This Is The Big Question now:

Can Humans act upon this great insight in a sufficiently short period of time to prevent fulfillment of the worst case predictions of high-end Science?

Present trends will soon go beyond the ability of humanity to prevent changes in climate from making large parts of Planet Earth uninhabitable, though these locations are now occupied by many hundreds of millions of people.

Let us hope that the cheerful, optimistic side of my divided Self is better at forecasting the future of our species than the pessimistic side !

B Z F, Madison, Wisconsin, 2015/16

Selected from WAKE UP, AMERICA, Wake Up, World ! CCSS2015.40 © 2015 Bernard Z. Friedlander [email protected] 3

Selected from: WAKE UP AMERICA, Wake Up, World ! CCSS2016 © 2016 B. Z. & N. M. Friedlander [email protected]

Science, Universities, and A Great American Challenge

Eight Major Determinants of American National Interest and World Status: 2016-2050

1.  Rapid, steady, measurable progress in transitions toward non-carbon energy systems, and reduction of extreme Climate Change and environmental degradation hazards.

2.  Effective balance among containment of, defense against, and involvement in, explosive conflicts involving foreign nations and other adversaries.

3.  Continued, deserved recognition of the reliability, relative stability, growth, and transparency of a dollar-based world economy.

4.  Deserved recognition for continued progress toward enhanced economic progress for significant percentages of American workers and families.

5.  Demonstrably effective private and public sector policies for dealing with the effects of Climate Change and new technologies on employment and employability.

6.  Demonstrable progress in healing deep, historic domestic wounds of ethnicity and poverty.

7.  Conflict-reducing policy decisions for balancing issues of border protection, immigration and citizenship.

8.  Preserving and expanding other elements in American Life, without which the prior seven essentials are almost meaningless: healthy participation in and protection of Education, Law, Religion, Health, Citizen Rights, Opportunities for Economic Mobility, Popular and Fine Arts, Problem-solving Local-State-National Politics, Entertainment, Athletics, Recreation, Experiences with Nature, assurances of Personal Safety, Freedom and Privacy.

% 30

10

10

10

10

10

10

10 _____

100%

Percents Hypothet-‐

ical 4

With These Prompts

LET’S THINK

BIG THOUGHTS !

Selected from: WAKE UP, AMERICA, Wake Up, World ! CCSS2015.40 © 2015 Bernard Z. Friedlander [email protected] 5

Auguste Rodin – The Thinker

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What Could

Il Penseur

Possibly

Be Thinking About?


An Idealized Pizza of Modern Life

Selected from: WAKE UP, AMERICA, Wake Up, World ! CCSS 2015.40 © 2015 Bernard Z. Friedlander [email protected]

Slide 9

But…

8


Modern Art >>>

9


They Discover

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The Actual E ight-‐S l ice Complex Pizza of Modern L i fe Habitats

Resources

Human Capital

Deployed Powers

EducaQon, Arts, Sciences, Law

Ideologies

Transport & CommunicaQon

Peace & War

Pizza Topping Details Listed Below


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12

Eight Slices of The Complex Pizza of Modern Life

Habitats

Deployed Powers

Resources EducaQon, Arts,

Sciences

Ideologies Transport &

CommunicaQon Peace & War

> > > > P i z z a To p p i n g C o n fi g u r a : o n s L i s t e d B e l ow < < < <

T h e R e a l T h i n g


Human Capital

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Separate Pizza Toppings As with mathema:cal fractals,

Each set of Major Pizza toppings can include an

Indefinitely large number of sets of Minor Pizza toppings.

Each set of flavors can have

Major or minor effects upon

The Final Flavor experience.

Like the mingled flavors in A Good Pizza–


The World Is

A Very Complicated Network

of

Interconnected and InteracQng Systems

Of Powerful Forces – (–almost like “fractals” ) !

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…and the critical point is–

The continued reasonably smooth functioning of most of the components of our complex modern society

are very largely dependent upon reliable relatively low-cost access to exactly

the same fossil fuels whose continued use will almost certainly make life unlivable

or unaffordable for many people around the world–

including many here in America.

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Examples of Fractals

These fractals were created

MathemaQcally

With a Computer

This Flower and

This Cactus

Are Fractals

Grown Naturally

In a Garden


FRACTALS: Nested replicates that combine ordered regularity with poten:al variability.

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This spectacular Romanesco Broccoli Combines Nature and The Plant Breeder’s Science.

Each reiteration of form, at any level, exemplifies a potential genetic mutation that did not occur.


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This Peacock’s Fractal Plumage is all about Sex and Mate-‐Selec1on in Reproduc1on.

Each reiteration of form, at any level, exemplifies a potential genetic mutation that did not occur. 18

The relevance of these examples of fractals–in computer creations and In nature–to the crisis fossil fuels and climate change may seem remote,

but it is actually highly explicit.

In all their incredibly variable manifestations, our societies’ profound dependence on carbon-based fuels

that provide the indispensable energy for operation of complex systems in the real world

have a single common structure that is as uniform as the ordered petals on a daisy,

or the colored dots on a peacock’s tail:

None of these “systems” could work in their functional niche without the core element of the energy they require.

Explana1on

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An Idealized Pizza of Modern Life


But… Not Exactly

Edible

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D e t a i l s o f P i z z a T o p p i n g s

Resources

Habitat

Human Capital

9 Toppings

Peace & War

Transport & CommunicaQons

Ideologies

EducaQon, Arts & Sciences

Each “Topping” Represents A Set of “Fractals”


Habitat

Deployed Power

21


Water Foods

Materials Fire

Applied InformaQon Applied Technologies

Energies Resource Access & Adequacy

Stability/Variability of Toppings Over Time

Nine Separate Pizza Toppings

Resources

Resources (1&2) 1=immediate local consumpQon

2= commodificaQon

Human Capital

9 Toppings

Peace & War


Ideologies


Habitat


Selected from: WAKE UP, AMERICA, Wake Up, World ! CCSS 2015.40 © 2015 Bernard Z. Friedlander [email protected] 22


Resources

Human Capital

Human Capital

11 Toppings

Peace & War


Ideologies




Habitats

Deployed Power

23


Resources

Deployed Power

Human Capital

Peace & War


Ideologies




Habitats 13

Toppings

Economic Social Police Judicial Religious Military

Authoritarian Personal (Ego) Corrupted Community EmoQonal

13 Separate Pizza Toppings

Deployed Power

24


Study Knowledge

InterpretaQon Judgment Decision Authority InspiraQon ImaginaQon

Beauty Talent Skill

Precision Diligence

Thirteen Separate Pizza Toppings

Resources

Human Capital

Peace & War


Ideologies

EducaQon Arts, Sciences, Law


Habitats 13

Toppings


Deployed Power


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Religious Tribal Ethnic

Regional NaQonal Social PoliQcal Historical

Professional AestheQc Sartorial AthleQc Gustatory RomanQc

Fourteen Separate Pizza Toppings

Resources

Human Capital

Peace & War


Ideologies

EducaQon Arts, Sciences, Law



Habitats 14

Toppings

Ideologies

Deployed Power

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Walking & Carrying Wheels Roads Rails

Marine AviaQon Electrical

Electronic-‐Digital InformaQon

Entertainment MarkeQng

Eleven Separate Pizza Toppings

Resources

Human Capital

Peace & War

Transport, Media CommunicaQons

Ideologies



Habitats 13 Toppings

Transport, Media, CommunicaQons

11 Toppings

Deployed Power

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P r o m i s e d D e t a i l s o f P i z z a T o p p i n g s

Calm Tension

Animosity Occasional Incidents Frequent Incidents

Overt Conflict & Combat Dismemberment

DestrucQon

ObliteraQon Victory – Defeat -‐ Truce

Resources

Peace & War

Human Capital

10 Toppings

Peace & War


Ideologies




Habitats

Ten Separate Pizza Toppings

Deployed Power

28

P r o m i s e d D e t a i l s o f P i z z a T o p p i n g s

Resources

Human Capital

Peace & War


Ideologies




Habitats

92 Separate Sets of Pizza Topping “Fractals”

Deployed Power

Sets Of

Fractals 9

Sets Of

Fractals 9

Sets Of

Fractals 11

Sets Of

Fractals 13

Sets Of

Fractals 13

Sets Of

Fractals 14

Sets Of

Fractals 11

Sets Of

Fractals 10

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SPECIAL NOTE ! As you examine the next slide, pay particular attention to

the enumerated Ruler Lines for the

CONFLICT & AGREEMENT SCALES–in the Purple Octagon.

They represent the fantasy thinking of an

Old Principal Investigator on many research grants, namely ME.

I have the fantasy that sometime after I’ve gone to

The Great, Bountiful Laboratory In The Sky,

groups of gifted investigators will have devised methods

with which to make accurate measurements of the

chaotic attributes of human behavior associated with

the “fractal” categories of Systems labeled here.

With those happy discoveries, it will become possible to

hope that some of the more destructive conflicts in

human behavior will become more amenable to

increasingly reliable understanding and reconciliation.



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VERY BIG QUESTION:

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?

THIS : Almost every one of the 92 “Fractal” Pizza Toppings of

Modern Life requires the application of cheap energy derived from the unwise extraction and burning of fossil fuels that are headed toward

making our Planet Earth Increasingly Uninhabitable !

Preserving the highest necessities of civilization will be the greatest challenge that faces those

seeking to preserve the habitability of our Earthly Home.


So, in conclusion

Let’s go back to the original consideraQons of

Simplicity > Intricacy > Complexity > Hyper-‐Complexity > Chaos.

If you were a poliQcal candidate

Whose biggest task is to get

The voters to like and trust you,

If you were a candidate for very high office,

How would you approach

The agonizing problems of advocaQng

A VERY DIFFERENT, SIMPLER WAY OF LIFE

ON A VERY WIDE SCALE

FOR ALL AMERICANS? 33

If the preceding analysis is reasonably correct, don’t Modern Thinking Humans

Have A Right to Their Expression of Confused Bewilderment?

Like Kermit The Frog, Thinking Humans know it isn’t easy being green. Thinking Humans see how closely this world’s complexity veers toward the edge of widespread chaos. But they don’t know which is the better course: to face the truth they fear, or try to stay happy by pretending truth isn’t there What leader can they trust to guide them? What politician would ask them to make that choice? Climate scientists and other nervous realists face a tough puzzle box on this issue. They’ll have to think long and hard to find strategies that will put climate issues squarely on a political map to get consensus on wise government policies no market can solve entirely on its own.

Thinking Humans’ Meditation


SECTION 4 – Synthesis

Where Do We Go From Here? A Very Brief Interweave of Nature,

Climate, and Human Behavior

Sec7on 4 is not included in this revision. Some of the ideas it embraces are elaborated in WAKE UP, AMERICA, Wake Up World–Part 2

Presented at the University of Wisconsin-‐Madison March 15, 2016

35

SECTION 4 – Synthesis

Where Do We Go From Here?

(Not included in this Version)

This Is The Big Question Now:

Can Humans act upon this great insight in a sufficiently short period of time to prevent fulfillment of the worst case prediction of high-end Science?

Present trends will soon go beyond the ability of humanity to prevent changes in climate that will make large parts of Planet Earth uninhabitable, though these locations are now occupied by many hundreds of millions of people.

I hope the cheerful, optimistic side of my divided Self is better at forecasting the future of our species than the pessimistic side.

B Z F Madison, Wisconsin 2015/16

36

Noah M. Friedlander Bernard Z. Friedlander

Bernard and his grandson, Noah, have worked together since Noah was 9-years old, when Noah taught Grandpa how to use a newly acquired computer which Grandpa did not adequately understand. By that time, Noah had taught himself how to use the Sketch-Up computer design program. With Sketch-Up he helped Bernard lay out key components of an aviation system which could continuously indicate to pilots the aerial “buoyancy” of an aircraft in flight. When Noah was 11, he and Bernard learned that the engineers of the Municipal Transportation Agency in San Francisco, where Noah is a native, had been struggling to design a pedestrian safety system of Between-Car-Barriers for the two-car Light Rail Vehicles that circulate widely on San Francisco streets. Working together, Bernard and Noah quickly produced working diagrams for the flexible, self-adjusting system that was subsequently adopted. This system is now in service on LRVs throughout the City. Copies of those original prototype diagrams can be seen, upon request.

As Noah’s studies of environmental and other sciences have advanced at the International High School of San Francisco, his contributions have become increasingly valuable to Bernard in his own work at the University of Wisconsin-Madison: on issues of the larger dimensions of the effects of climate change and environmental impacts on societal and governmental stability in the coming years.

Bernard is now Research Professor of Human Development, Emeritus, in the Department of Psychology at the University of Hartford in West Hartford, CT, and a regularly contributing current member of the Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar in the Department of Physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

His undergraduate major studies at Middlebury College were in English and American Literature and History. At Middlebury, he was Co-Editor of FRONTIERS, Middlebury’s literary periodical.

For several years, before entering graduate school to study scientific methods in research on human development, Bernard served as Personal Assistant to F. Ronald Mansbridge, Director of the American Branch of Cambridge University Press.

A record of some of his scholarly research can be found in Google Scholar, and his professional profile appears on LinkedIn. Bernard resides in Madison and in Bellevue, WA.

About The Authors

This project, as with all my recent and current efforts, is dedicated to the memory of my two late wives– Mary Hannah Mar7n Combs Friedlander

& Mary Alexandra Gibson Masich Friedlander–

From both of whom I gained more than I could ever adequately repay. ~B Z F~

Selected from: WAKE Up, AMERICA, Wake Up, World ! CCSS2015.40 © 2015 Bernard Z. Friedlander [email protected]

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