Assessing the Economic Impact ofSwine Disease -
The Case of PRRS
James KliebensteinAgricultural EconomistIowa State University
Production Impacts
Death Permanent Damage Uncompensated Growth
Interruption Reduced Feed Efficiency
Production Impacts
Abortion Reproductive Inefficiency Decreased Animal Product Output Increased Culling
Cost of Disease
Mortality Value, expenses, and disposal
Morbidity Production, efficiency, cash flow
Revenue loss Lower weight & value, condemn
Cost of Disease
Prevention and/or treatment Seedstock suppliers
Lost market Reputation/goodwill
Industry impact Export market, consumer
confidence
Budgeting EconomicImpact of Disease
Reduced Revenue Reduced Costs Increased Costs
Impact of Disease on Market PigGrowth
As=Animal Sick Ds=Days Sick A=Normal growth B=Compensating growth C=Growth resumes but no compensating gain D=Growth is impacted through days on feed.
Age/days
Weight
A
B
C
D
AS DS
Economics
Evaluating trade-offs Prevention v. treatment
Marginal analysis What is the value of additional
intervention versus its cost Optimal is when they are equal
Relationship of Treatment Leveland Losses
A=Allow disease to go to higher level and then treat B=Keep incidence at medium level C=Keep incidence at low level-treat often
$
Treatment LevelBA C
Control costs
Losses
Issues in DiseaseManagement Biosecurity
Economic Impact on theHerd/Operation
Impact on Management of AnimalFlow or System
Need to have a focus on what theit causes as well as what causesit.
Issues in DiseaseManagement Biosecurity
Cost of Prevention Cost of Treatment Prevention Effectiveness Treatment Effectiveness Probability of Getting Disease Disease Contagiousness
Can’t afford total prevention. It will bankrupt you.
Evaluating Trade-offs
Treatment Effectiveness
High
Low
High Low
Treat
Treat/Ignore Prevent/Ignore
Prevent
Cost toFarm
Evaluating Trade-offs
Probability of DiseaseCost toFarm
High
Low
High Low
Prevent
Treat/Prevent Ignore
Prevent/Treat
Evaluating Trade-offs
Cost of Treatment
High
Low
High Low
Prevent Treat/Prevent
Prevent/Treat Treat/Ignore
Cost toFarm
Variables Treatment Prevention
Incidence More important for
low incidence Important for high
incidence
Infections Less important Important Clinical Important Less important
Sub-Clinical Less important Important Lead to other
disease
Less important Important
Contact
Transfer
Important Less important
Air Transfer Less important Important
Evaluating Trade-offs
Disease ManagementMay be Key to Survival
Breeding-age Females Culled over a 12-monthPeriod as a Percentage of Sow and Gilt Inventory
Time Period Percent
1990 43.5
1995 41.2
2000 37.7
2006 48.8
Source: USDA, 2008, Part IV, “Swine 2006: Changes inthe U.S. Pork Industry, 1990-2006. USDA-APHIS-US,CEAH, Ft. Collins, CO.
Percentage of Pigs That Died DuringNursery Phase
Time Period Percent
1990 2.4
1995 2.3
2000 2.6
2006 2.9
Source: USDA, 2008, Part IV, “Swine 2006: Changes inthe U.S. Pork Industry, 1990-2006. USDA-APHIS-US,CEAH, Ft. Collins, CO.
Percentage of Grow/Finish Pigs that Died DuringGrow Finish Phase
Time Period Percent
1990 1.8
1995 2.1
2000 2.9
2006 3.9
Source: USDA, 2008, Part IV, “Swine 2006: Changes inthe U.S. Pork Industry, 1990-2006. USDA-APHIS-US,CEAH, Ft. Collins, CO.
Per Litter Productivity(Pigs per litter)
Item Year
1990 1995 2000 2006
Stillbirth/mummies .87 .05 .81 1.04
Born Alive 9.47 9.37 9.94 10.80
Total Born 10.34 10.02 10.75 11.84
Preweaning Deaths 1.10 .88 1.17 1.42
Weaned 8.37 8.49 8.77 9.38
Source: USDA, 2008, Part IV, “Swine 2006: Changes inthe U.S. Pork Industry, 1990-2006. USDA-APHIS-US,CEAH, Ft. Collins, CO.
Percent of Sites in Which PRRS was Diagnosedby a Veterinarian or Laboratory during Previous
12 Months
Year
Item 2000 2006
Breeding Herd 16.2 18.8
Nursery Pigs 11.6 21.5
Grow/Finish Pigs 10.3 23.4
Source: USDA, 2008, Park IV, “Swine 2006:changes in the U.S. Pork Industry, 1990-2006.”USDA-APHIS-US, CEAH, Ft. Collins, CO.
Percentage of Sites Which Usually Vaccinated forPRRS During 12 Months Prior to Survey
Item Year
2000 2006
Breeding Females 37.1 27.3
Weaned Pigs 5.2 5.4
Source: USDA, 2008, Part IV, “Swine 2006: Changes inthe U.S. Pork Industry, 1990-2006. USDA-APHIS-US,CEAH, Ft. Collins, CO.
Brief Summary of PRRS Study
Source of Information: 10 Case Study Farms Range of Producer Types National Animal Health
Monitoring System PRRSIncidence
Study Cooperators
Eric J. Neumann, New Zealand Colin D. Johnson, Iowa State Univ. John W. Mabry, Iowa State Univ. Jeffrey J. Zimmerman, Iowa State Univ. Eric J. Bush, USDA Center for Natl Animal Health
Surveillance Ann H. Seitzinger, USDA Center for Natl Animal
Health Surveillance Alice L. Green, USDA Center for Natl Animal Health
Surveillance
Case Study PopulationFARROWING
Farm Number of Sows Number of Litters Affected
A1 10,200 23,885
B1 1,400 1,185
C 4,000 2,240
D 475 1,434
E 2,800 1,837
F 1,000 432
Case Study PopulationNURSERY
Farm Number of GroupsAffected
Number of GroupsUnaffected
A1 40 105
J 66 220
Case Study PopulationGROW-FINISH
Farm Number of GroupsAffected
Number of GroupsUnaffected
A 38 109
G 2 12
H 12 8
I 27 21
J 546 356
Farrowing Productivity Differences –PRRS Outbreak
Farm
Percent Change
Farrowing RatePigs Weaned per sow
FarrowedPigs Weaned per Sow per
Year
A-1 -11.11 -7.69 -14.44
A-2 -10.26 -6.21 -9.09
B-1 -2.35 -28.21 -26.24
B-2 -21.98 -32.55 -46.45
C -19.21 -25.58 -23.56
D-1 -8.41 -14.29 -21.43
D-2 -4.33 -6.82 -10.95
E -11.90 -10.11 -11.44
F -39.05 -13.58 -38.32
High -39.05 -32.55 -38.32
Low -2.35 -6.21 -9.09
Average -13.76 -16.43 -22.94
Farrowing Productivity Differences –PRRS Outbreak
Farm
Absolute Difference
Farrowing RatePigs Weaned per sow
FarrowedPigs Weaned per Sow per
Year
A-1 -9.00 -0.70 -3.24
A-2 -8.00 -0.55 -1.95
B-1 -2.00 -2.95 -5.80
B-2 -20.00 -3.41 -11.20
C -13.40 -2.20 -4.50
D-1 -7.00 -1.30 -4.80
D-2 -3.60 -0.60 -2.30
E -9.00 -0.90 -2.30
F -26.20 -1.10 -6.40
High -26.20 -3.41 -11.20
Low -2.00 -0.55 -1.95
Average -10.92 -1.50 -4.72
Nursery and Grow-Finish ProductivityDifference – PRRS Outbreak
Farm
Percentage Difference
Average DailyGain
Feed Efficiency Mortality (%)
NURSERY
A-2 -28.00 11.73 1,041
J -22.58 11.64 246
Average -25.29 11.69 644
GROW-FINISH
A-2 -10.06 7.45 189
G -39.02 37.11 408
H -12.26 1.72 187
I -1.96 5.71 44
J-1 -2.78 -1.45 59
J-2 -6.11 -5.09 109
Average -12.03 7.57 166
Nursery and Grow-Finish ProductivityDifference – PRRS Outbreak
Farm
Absolute Difference
Average DailyGain
Feed Efficiency Mortality (%)
NURSERY
A-2 -.21 0.19 17.91
J -.21 0.17 3.39
Average -.21 0.18 10.65
GROW-FINISH
A-2 -.17 .21 11.10
G -.64 1.18 15.59
H -.19 .06 4.10
I -.03 .18 1.53
J-1 -.05 -.04 1.56
J-2 -.11 -.14 2.90
Average -.20 .24 6.05
Summary of Pig Production EfficiencyImpacts of PRRS-Case Study Farms
NegativeGroup
PositiveGroup Difference
Farrowing Rate (%) 79.36% 68.44% -10.92
Pigs weaned /litter (#) 9.13 7.63 -1.50
Litters/sow/yr (#) 2.29 2.09 -.20
Nursery mortality (%) 1.55 12.2 +10.65
Grow/finish mortality (%) 3.64 9.69 +6.05
Range in Economic Impact forCase Study Farms
Item Lowest Impact Highest Impact
Impact per litter – farrowing $27.61 $156.60
Impact per pig – nursery $3.35 $9.12
Impact per pig – grow/finish $0.21 $28.30
Economic Impact of PRRS Outbreakfor Selected Feed Costs
Item Corn ($/bu)SBM ($/ton)
2.50199
3.75238
5.00277
Farrowing Phase
Reduced revenue per litter $45.00 $45.00 $45.00
Reduced farrowing rate 29.57 31.73 34.00
Economic impact per litter $74.57 $76.73 $79.00
Nursery Phase
Increased mortality $3.58 $3.58 $3.58
Reduced feed efficiency 1.21 1.39 1.57
Reduced average daily gain 1.26 1.26 1.26
Economic impact per pig $6.05 $6.23 $6.41
Grow-Finish Phase
Increased mortality $3.23 $3.23 $3.23
Reduced feed efficiency 3.24 4.24 5.25
Reduced average daily gain 1.44 1.44 1.44
Economic impact per pig $7.91 $8.91 $9.91
Annual Cost of PRRS to the United StatesSwine Industry for Selected Feed Costs
ItemCorn ($/bu)SBM ($/ton)
2.50199
3.75238
5.00277
Million Dollars
Farrowing Losses
Reduced pigs weaned $40.50 40.50 40.50
Reduced farrowing rate 26.61 28.56 30.1
Nursery Losses 231.17 238.05 244.93
Finisher Losses 295.91 333.32 370.73
TOTAL $594.19 640.43 686.77