AboutThe company BISENSA.COMis developing Business Simulations for Entrepreneurshipto help them:• (A) design 5-years pro-forma financial statements for rapid business plan creation• (B) simulate strategic decisions to improve survival rate and support growth,• (C) produce fundamental analysis and company/idea valuation,• (D) foster entrepreneurial education, training & research,in risk-free, enjoyable, realistic and interactive simulation environment.
Secret sauce is System Dynamics modelling approach, superior methodologyfor modeling complex systems.
new companies / yr
10,000 Croatia3.2 M EU3.0 M US
Problem-Solution Fits
#1 Learning Environment for EntrepreneurialTraining/Education/Research
#2 Rapid Business Plan Creation System#3 Budgeting & Testing Future
Business Idea Viability
Solution (SD engine)
Solution (Desktop)INPUTS: OUTPUTS:
Solution (Web)
Inputs:
SimulatorMontly Quarterly Annually
Simulation mode: one-runGamming mode: interactive forward/backward runs
Outputs:
Outputs:
Fin.Reports:
Valuation:
Example – Sensitivity Analysis
●Multivariate Monte-Carlo Simulation● Marketing effectiveness = Normal distribution (mean 5%, deviation 2.5%)● Average salary per staff = Uniform distribution (min 2000$, max 3000$)● Product Sales Price = Normal distribution (mean 30$, deviation 5$)● Cost Price per Product = Normal distribution (mean 15$, deviation 5$)
Current50% 75% 95% 100%"Cash / Deposits Balance"2.207 M1.907 M1.606 M1.305 M1.004 M703,614402,892102,169
-198,554-499,277-800,000
0 9.6 19.2 28.8 38.4 48Time (Month)
(1)Entrepreneurs(2)Business Consultants(3)Regional Development Agencies(4)Public Policy Makers(5)Venture Capital & Angel Investors(6)Credit Banks(7)Universities & Business Schools
7 Market Segments
LivePlan.com
Competition
How much of this product will you sell?!?
Forecast!
SimVenture.co.uk
Competition
MIT-Sloan Management
Competition
compass.co (startup genome report)Benchmark
Revenue
● Freemium model
● 20-30$ / monthlysubscription for Premium
● 1000 users year 1● 3300 users year 2● 10000 users year 3
Expenses
● CAC = 3$ / user● Salaries = 30.000 $/yr
Revenue Model
EBIT
● 0$ year 1● 20.000$ year 2● 167.000$ year 3
Siniša Sovilj, CEOSystem Dynamics Consultant &Expert for Economy and Business Simulation Modeling
The Team
Martin Kunc,Associate Professor of StrategicManagement Science,WARWICK BUSINESS SCHOOL.
Zoran Aralica,Senior Research Associate, InnovationManagementTHE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS.
Krunoslav Hrnjak,Project Management Professional,YottaByte.
Partners & Supporters:
Goran Burazer,Senior Software Developer,OMEGA SOFTWARE.
Tomislav Bačurin,Sales & Marketing Expert,SP SISTEMI.
Business Simulation Lab -helps to simulate future businesses
The Vision
Thank You!Business Simulation Lab
Siniša Sovilj, Founder & [email protected]
hr.linkedin.com/in/ssovilj
Bisensa.com
Case Study:Green Devil Control Systems
Company green technology for smart homes
IDEA: Founders will design, build, and offer a product(hardware) and service (software) that will allowhomeowners to control and monitor electricity usage intheir homes and deliver significant energy savings.
Three founders:(1) mechanical engineer(2) electrical engineer(3) economist
Time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Investment Dates $ $ $ $
Value EventsStartupInitial Operating CapabilityFull Operating Capability
Proof of ConceptProof of ProductProof of MarketProof of Scale
Inital 1st Round Exit2st Round
Value Events
Fin.Reports:
Example – Company Valuation●Discounted Cash Flow
●Built Up Method:
0 (1 )
n
tt
CashFlowPreDiscount Rate
sent Value
Initial 1st Round 2nd Round Exit Valuation
Risk Free - 6% 6% 6%
Systemic - 10% 8% 2%
Unsystemic - 59% 36% 17%
Total Discount Rate - 75% 50% 25%
Valuation:
1. Koliki se mjesečna poslovna dobit (EBIT) očekuje na kraju 5. godine? Akoliki mjesečni slobodni novčani tok (FCF)? Zašto se poslovna dobit islobodni novčani tok razlikuju?
2. Kolika je maksimalna razina negativnog novčanog toka (Cash BurnRate)?
3. Koliku investiciju trebamo da bi uspješno financirali poslovni pothvat?
4. Kolika je sadašnja vrijednost poslovnog pothvata/ideje (Net PresentValue) prije investicije?
5. Koliko bi morali prepustiti vlasništva ako bi od potencijalnog investitoraodmah zatražili cjelokupnu investiciju (Total Cash Needed) , a sami nebi ništa uložili?
MIJENJAJTE RAZLIČITE PARAMETRE MODELA (jedan po jedan) IPOKUŠAJTE USTANOVITI NA KOJE JE SADAŠNJA VRIJEDNOST FIRMENAJVIŠE OSJETLJIVA? Uputa: mjerite VrijednostFirme (%) Parametar (%)
ZADACI: