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Challenges
and ChoicesSan Francisco Bay Area Long
Range Plan
Therese W. McMillanDeputy Executive Director, Policy
Metropolitan Transportation Commission
Siemens Mobility Press Tour
February 2, 2008
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Now to the Year 2035Now to the Year 2035
Challenges• Growth• Cost of Housing• Cost of Transportation• Health• Community Stability• Sustainability• Climate Change
Choices • Planning for a
Better Future• Targets• Infrastructure • Focused Growth• Transport Pricing• Assessing the Difference• Moving Forward
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GrowthGrowth• Nearly 2 million
more people
• 1.8 million new jobs
• Need for over 700,000 new homes
• A tripling in freight volumes
C h a l l e n g e s
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Cost of HousingCost of Housing
C h a l l e n g e s
Median Home Prices, 2007
First-time Homebuyer
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Growth in Interregional Commuting2000-2030
+83%+83%
+64%+64%
++9090%%
+120%+120%
Cost of TransportationCost of Transportation
• Longer distances
• Increasing delay
103% Increase in Delay, 2000 - 2030
200
400
600
800
2000 2030
Dai
ly D
elay
(00
0s o
f h
ou
rs)
C h a l l e n g e s
103% Increase in Delay2000-2030
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Community StabilityCommunity Stability• Distressed communities in
the region’s core
• Concentrations of poverty
• Urban and suburban violence
• Schools in crisis
• Growing income gap
• Fear of gentrification and
displacement
United Way
Neighborhoods with Concentrated PovertyC h a l l e n g e s
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CO2 Per Capita
Bay Area
World
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Metric Tons/Year
CO2 Per Capita
Bay Area
World
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Metric Tons/Year
Climate ChangeClimate Change• Impact on Bay Area
• Rising sea levels
• More hot, smoggy days
• Vanishing Sierra snow pack; Water shortages
• More wild fires with pollution
• Bay Area’s impact on the globe
• Per capita carbon footprint 3 times the world average
• 50% from transportation
C h a l l e n g e s
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Planning for a Better FuturePlanning for a Better Future
C h o i c e s
REDUCE CONGESTION
IMPROVEAFFORDABILITY
REDUCE EMISSIONS
& VMT
Infrastructure
EconomyEconomy EnvironmentEnvironment EquityEquity
GOALSGOALS
TARGETSTARGETS
Pricing & Focused Growth
STRATEGIESSTRATEGIES
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Infrastructure Infrastructure Freeway Operations
Capital cost: $600 million
• Complete ramp metering and
traffic operations system
• Limited carpool lane gap closures
• Complete traffic signal coordination
C h o i c e s
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Infrastructure Infrastructure High-Occupancy/Toll (HOT) Lanes and Bus Enhancements
Capital cost: $10 billion
• Complete HOV/HOT network
• Expand express and local bus
• Park & ride lots
• Transit hubs
• Direct ramps
• Priority treatments to
increase speed and reliability
C h o i c e s
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Infrastructure Infrastructure Regional Rail and Ferry
Capital cost: $60 billion
• Regional Rail
• Improvements and extensions
• Build on California High-Speed Rail
• Ferry
• New and enhanced routes
C h o i c e s
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Focused GrowthFocused Growth
• Alternative Land-Use Scenario
• For “what-if” analysis
• More concentrated and transit-oriented
than Projections 2007
• Better jobs-housing balance
C h o i c e s
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Transport PricingTransport Pricing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Parkingsurcharge
Congestionsurcharge
Auto operatingCarbon/VMT tax
Current autooperating charge
• Pricing package increases auto operating costs five-fold, with focus on peak congested times
Cen
ts p
er m
ile (
2007
$)
Note: Represents cost for typical commute trip. Does not reflect discounts for low-income travelers.
C h o i c e s
Cost Increase for Typical Commute
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Assessing the DifferenceAssessing the Difference
Environment: Reduce CO2 to 52,000 tons per day
C h o i c e s
Note: Trend assumes current state laws and regulations, including fuel efficiency standards called for under state law passed in 2002, though currently in litigation (AB 1493, Pavley, 2002)
Trend
Best Infrastructure
2035 Target
Add Pricing and Land Use
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
To
ns
pe
r d
ay
of
CO
2 (
x1
00
0)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20352000
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Assessing the DifferenceAssessing the DifferenceEnvironment:
Reduce fine particulate emissions (PM2.5) to 18 tons per day
Note: Trend assumes current state laws and regulations that would reduce emissions from heavy-duty diesel engines (trucks)
C h o i c e s
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
To
ns
PM
2.5
pe
r d
ay
Trend
Best Infrastructure
2035 Target
Add Pricing and Land Use
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Assessing the DifferenceAssessing the DifferenceEnvironment:
Reduce coarse particulate emissions (PM10) to 38 tons per day
C h o i c e s
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
To
ns
PM
10 p
er
da
y
Trend
Best Infrastructure
2035 Target
Add Pricing and Land Use
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Assessing the DifferenceAssessing the DifferenceEnvironment: Reduce daily VMT to 17.1 miles per person
C h o i c e s
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Da
ily
Ve
hic
le M
ile
s T
rav
ele
d p
er
Ca
pit
a
Trend
Best Infrastructure
2035 Target
Add Pricing and Land Use
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Assessing the DifferenceAssessing the DifferenceEconomy:
Reduce congestion delay per person to 21.3 hours a year
C h o i c e s
Trend
Freeway Operations
2035 Target
Add Pricing and Land Use
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
An
nu
al
Ve
hic
le H
ou
rs o
f D
ela
y p
er
Ca
pit
a
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Assessing the DifferenceAssessing the DifferenceEquity:
Reduce share of earnings low- and lower middle-income households spend on housing and transportation to 61%*
* Includes households with annual income less than $70,000
** Alternative land use assumes direct housing subsidies to low- and lower middle-income households totaling $2.1 billion annually
C h o i c e s
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Pricing (with Land Use**)
Trend
2035 Target
Land Use**
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Moving ForwardMoving Forward
Summary Conclusions
• Requires an integrated strategy• No single silver bullet
• Policies and investments must reinforce
one another
• Infrastructure alone is not
nearly enough
C h o i c e s
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Moving ForwardMoving Forward
• Pricing and Focused Growth can
make a big difference
• Pricing near-term; land use longer-term
• Must design pricing to address equity
• Auto trips diverted with pricing and
focused growth
• + 2.1 million bike/pedestrian trips
• +700,000 new transit trips
• Need to be aggressive ─
Are we ready?
C h o i c e s
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Moving ForwardMoving ForwardBut we still need more if we want to meet ambitious targets
• Fuel efficiency and alternative fuels
• Telecommuting and employer
strategies
• Other changes in attitude
and behavior
C h o i c e s
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Moving ForwardMoving Forward
Next Steps
• Develop comprehensive, realistic strategy
for pricing and land use changes
• Create a supporting investment package
• Develop policy-based criteria to
evaluate projects
• Move forward with vision
and purpose
C h o i c e s
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