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Challenges and Opportunities for
Regional Cooperation in the Black Sea
Region: A View from Romania
By Professor Adrian Pop
National School for Political andAdministrative Studies
Bucharest
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SWOT Analysis of the Cooperation Context
Strong Points
Connection link along the emerging geopolitical and geo-economic axisMediterranean SeaBlack SeaCaspian Sea
Geo-strategic position as new south-eastern EU border
Giant market for the EU exports
Low costs of the labour force
Potential of a substantial flow of FDIs High potential of biodiversity in agricultural resources, tourism, and
fisheries
Valuable cultural heritage, diverse human capacities and social values
Buffer zone where the Orthodox, Islamic and Western civilizations andcultures blend together
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SWOT Analysis of the Cooperation Context
Weak Points
Hardly a region at all and a clashing point of the major Euro-Atlantic andEurasian global players interests
Economic development constraints due to physical and climate conditions
Intra and interregional disparities in economic development
Environmental protection constraints due to the closed sea feature of the
Black Sea Different statuses of the BSR countries vis--vis EU and NATO
State fragility and poor administrative capacity
Persistence of mutual distrust relations between some countries within theregion
Corruption, organized crime, illicit traffic and unresolved conflicts
Demographical decline due to negative birth increase and labour migration
Poor quality of the industrial and transport infrastructure
Obsolete education infrastructure and technological level of the innovationcentres
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SWOT Analysis of the Cooperation Context
Opportunities
Meeting point of two geopolitical axes: North-South axis (Russia-Armenia-Iran) and the East-West axis (Caspian corridor to the EU)
Substantial increase of GDP and FDIs after 2000
Access of coastal areas of the EU MS to the Cohesion Policy funds
Big investments planned for the pan-European transport axis, oil and gas
pipelines Activation of Black Sea Sectoral Partnerships
Involving Russia and Turkey in the new EU cooperation initiatives
CEPS proposals: a pan-European free trade area; a tripartite EU-Russia-Ukraine gas pipeline agreement; linking the pan-European transportcorridors to the westward corridors in Central Asia; an international effort
to solve the water-hydro-energy crisis in Central Asia; a quadrilateral EU-Russia-Ukraine-Kazakhstan cooperation to tackling climate change
Implementing new software technologies and vocational and lifelongeducation, for adapting to the requirements of Bologna process
Increased demand for tourist services, expanded potentially to all coastlineregions
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SWOT Analysis of the Cooperation Context
Threats
Poverty and economic underdevelopment
Increased macro-economic instability due to the global economic crisis
Excessive migration of high-skilled labour force towards EU countries
Harsh competition of the newly industrialized countries within the field ofindustrial development and attracting FDIs
Increase of the gap between the EU MS and their eastern neighbours infields such as trade, single market, labour force mobility and thedevelopment of the knowledge-based society
Environment degradation and natural disasters
Augmentation of separatist trends and delays in solving local conflicts
Corruption, organized crime and terrorism
The resurgence of Russias spheres of influence policy
Energy dependence used as a blackmailing tool
Increased militarization of the geopolitics of energy
Possible use of the BSR as a platform for military, reconstruction andstabilization operations in the Greater Middle East
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Inflation of Regional Cooperation
Organizations and Initiatives
Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization
Community of Democratic Choice
Organization for Democracy and Economic DevelopmentGUAM
Black Sea Naval Cooperation Task Group (BLACKSEAFOR)
Black Sea Harmony
Black Sea Coast Forum Black Sea Border Coordination and Information Centre
Black Sea Euro-region
Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform
Southeast European Cooperative Initiative Regional Center for Combating Trans-Border Crime (SECI Center)
Southeast European Cooperation Process Civil-Military Emergency Planning Council in South-Eastern Europe
Black Sea Forum for Partnership and Dialogue
Black Sea Synergy
Eastern Partnership
Union for the Black Sea
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Conditions for the New EU Initiatives to
Become Success Stories
Added value for all stakeholders Unambiguous recognition of the sovereignty of all the states involved
Light-weight institutional framework
Appropriate instruments
Not impeding or overlapping the ENP Part and parcel of the EU community process
Active involvement of Russia and Turkey
Complementarity and correlation
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Regional Cooperation Research Agenda
Building a research methodology
Identifying the main thematicor sectoral dimensions ofregional cooperation in theBSR
Designing evaluation criteriafor organizations, activitiesand initiatives
Designing evaluation criteriafor the impact of regional
organizations, activities andinitiatives on the economic,political and securityenvironment in the BSR
Evaluation of activities
Analysis of the achievementsand shortcomings
Identifying overlappingactivities
Analysis of the degree inwhich regional cooperation inthe BSR relates to the
processes of European andEuro-Atlantic integration in
the region
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Environment
The EC full member status in the Black Sea Convention; EC suggestionsfor legal amendments to ensure that modern environmental policies and
principles are applied to the Black Sea
DABLAS Task Force: platform for cooperation for the protection of theDanube and the Black Sea chaired by EC; seeks to bring cohesion to thefinancing process; waste water infrastructure projects
The EC technical assistance project for strengthening the capacity ofimplementing the Kyoto Protocol and negotiating a new agreement after2012
Proposals:
- Set up a system of proportional tax on water transport and through pipestaking into consideration the amount and the pollution risk
- Set up a Regional Centre for Studying the Adaptations to the ClimateChanges employing multinational personnel
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Maritime Policy
Setting up an integrated network of maritime surveillance systems and itspossible extension to non-EU Black Sea riparian countries
Setting up a European Network for Marine Data and Observations
Forging a Regional Strategy for the Integrated Management of Black SeaCoast Areas
Proposal:
- Introduction of a legislative measure regarding the Black Sea in themeasures package of ERICA I and II projects
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Migration
Setting up a Regional Platform: EU MS, EU agencies, Black Sea ripariancountries, regional organizations
Mobility partnerships focused on circular and seasonal migration
Visa facilitation and readmission agreements
Awareness campaigns
Institutional twinning Proposals:
- Romania and Bulgaria to establish, together with FRONTEX, joint patrolsin the Black Sea
- Expand the consular representation of the EU MS in the Common VisaApplication Centre in Chisinau
- More flexible visa regimes imposed by EU MS at the Eastern border fortheir immediate neighbours
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Cross-border Organized Crime
Proposals:
- Set up a regional cooperation platform: relevant EU MS, EU agencies,countries bordering the Black Sea, and regional organizations such asBSEC, SECI Center in Bucharest, the Black Sea Border Coordination andInformation Centre in Burgas and the Virtual Centre GUAM
- ENP partner countries in the Black Sea Region to conclude andimplement cooperation agreements with EUROPOL and FRONTEX
- Interaction between Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine on combatingorganized crime to be coordinated within the BSEC framework
- EU MS at the Eastern border to improve the integrated managementsystem of their borders, set up common border checkpoints with theirimmediate neighbours and take part in the EUBAM mission
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Civil Society Cross-border Cooperation
RO-RM-UKR cross-border cooperation programme, which covers the NWBlack Sea coast: 126 million Euro
Black Sea Basin Joint Operational Programme 2007-2013, whose one outof three objectives is to promote local, people-to-people contacts: 17million Euro
Various programmes developed under ENPI Black Sea Forum for Dialogue and Partnership
GMFs Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation programmes
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Energy
Accession of Black Sea countries to the Energy Community Treaty: startnegotiations with Moldova, Ukraine and Turkey; Georgia as observer
INOGATE:supports the development of new energy infrastructureprojects through the provision of targeted technical assistance; promotesthe regional integration of the oil and gas pipelines and facilitatestransport both within the region of INOGATE participating countries
and towards the exportmarkets of Europe Baku Process:An Energy Road Map has been devised
Supporting the gradual development of regional energy markets in
littoral states of the Black and Caspian Seas and their neighbouring
countries in order to facilitate a gradual integration between the
respective energy markets and the EU market Getting appropriate funding for new infrastructure projects
Embarking on energy efficiency policies and programmes
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EU Energy Soup
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Unresolved Conflicts
An Insecurity Area at the EU Eastern Border
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EU Role in Unresolved Conflicts
Gaining time is counterproductive Georgia vs. Kosovo; geography
and interests shouldnt lead to a
selective application of intl law
The only power which has the
necessary negotiating clout; itshould demonstrate confidence in
its own strategic potential
Attractiveness of the European
integration model
EU President, HR for the Unionin FASP, European External
Action Service, legal personality,
reinforced cooperation in ESDP
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Lessons learnt from the Russian-Georgian War
Two types of secessionist conflicts and Russian behaviour
Abkhazia and South Ossetia along with the Turkish R. of Northern Cyprus,
Taiwan, D.A.R. of Sahrawi and Kosovo
EU as the principal diplomatic broker and peacekeeping actor: negotiations
on a ceasefire; the agreement on troop withdrawals; the deployment of theEUMM Georgia in record time; and the co-hosting of the Geneva talks
EU MS have acted in unity and with determination
Maintaining equidistance while strengthening the Europeanisation
project
Working with Russia using the soft power diplomacy Direct contact with the breakaway regions
Need to define a common strategy with the U.S.
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Transnistria
Contrary to other unresolved conflicts, it doesnt involve an ethniccomponent
Avoid transforming Transnistria into a Black Sea Kaliningrad
A sustainable solution for Transnistria is a precondition for RMs becominga democratic and prosperous EU neigbouring country and to keepmomentum for RMs European option
Proposals:
- A step-by-step economic and infrastructure-oriented approach
- Upgrade the status of the EU and US (currently observers) in themechanism of mediation
- Use the opportunities presented by the ENP-ESDP nexus: a possible
future civilian EU-led police monitoring mission with the participation ofneutral EU MS and non-EU states, including Russia and Ukraine
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EC Proposed Future Actions in the Area
Setting up long-term measurable objectives in key sectors
Forging partnerships for co-financing schemes
Involving Belarus in selected Black Sea Synergy activities
Strengthening the students and academics cooperation networks
Setting up the Black Sea Civil Society Forum Setting up an Institute for European Studies
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Academic research
Pop, Adrian (coordinator), Manoleli, Dan, Towards aEuropean Strategy in the Black Sea Area: The TerritorialCooperation, Project SPOS 2007 Strategy and policiesstudies, European Institute of Romania, Bucharest, 2007.http://www.ier.ro/documente/spos2007_en/Spos2007_stud
iu_4_en.pdf
http://www.ier.ro/documente/spos2007_en/Spos2007_studiu_4_en.pdfhttp://www.ier.ro/documente/spos2007_en/Spos2007_studiu_4_en.pdfhttp://www.ier.ro/documente/spos2007_en/Spos2007_studiu_4_en.pdfhttp://www.ier.ro/documente/spos2007_en/Spos2007_studiu_4_en.pdf -
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EUs Eastern Neighbourhood: Future EU
Eastern Border?