Chinese Graduate Students in the US: The Increasing Lure of the Economic Boom Back Home?
51st International Studies Association Annual Conference
February 18, 2010
Ryan P. Kellogg
UCLA Anderson School of Management
Study Background
•In 1966, 78% of S&E PhD recipients were American citizens, in 2003 it was 62%
•Foreign students in represent ~60% of engineering doctorates awarded in the US annually
Growing representation
•Above average contributors in patents awarded, papers published, and setting up new enterprises
•Foreign-born researchers account for 1/3 of Nobel prizes awarded
Highly accomplished
•98,000 PRC students were attending American universities in 2008/9
•Single largest source of foreign-born doctorate level S&E
Large Chinese representation
Foreign scholars play a critical role in US Science and Engineering (S&E) research
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Agricultural sciences
Biological sciences
Computer sciences
Earth, atmospheric, ocean sciences
Mathematics
Physical sciences
Engineering
Non-science and engineering
Percent of Total Doctorates Awarded
Non-U.S. citizens' share of doctorates awarded, by field of study: 2006
Qi Lu, Doctorate at Carnegie Mellon and current executive in charge of Microsoft’s Bing search engine.
Photo Source: The Economist, 2/4/10
Source: NSF
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
Study BackgroundRecent reports seem to indicate an increase in Chinese returnees
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
• Increases of returnees in the 1990s and following the dot com crash of the early 2000s were the result of improved incentives
• Recent reports seem to indicate that the financial crisis in Western nations may drive this return rate higher
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Rates of Return of Chinese Graduate Students, 1985-2007
Total returnees Returnees as share of total grads
This study looks for evidence of this rising trend in returnees for Chinese S&E graduate students in the US
US Recessions
Source: Chinese Statistical Yearbook, 2008
Previous StudiesIntention to return seems to be rising…
Study AuthorsYear of Survey Sample size (N)
% indicating they would return
Zhang 1992 500 58%
Zweig and Chen 1993 273 33%
Kellogg 2005 185 45%
Wadwha 2007 229* 58%
* Indicates number of PRC and Hong Kong citizens reached in survey
• Some notes:• Figures from Zhang taken before Tiananmen and changes in US visa policy
(June 4th Green Card)• Differences in phrasing of questioning between surveys could have an
impact• Wadhwa et al. survey had higher portion of non-PhD students
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
Previous Studies….but actual return rates are low and have held steady
1987 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20020%
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88%92% 91%
96%90% 92% 92%
41%47%
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51%
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% S&E Doctorate Recipients in US after 5 years
Chinese Citizens All non-US citizens
Year of Doctorial Completion
• Finn’s study shows Chinese S&E doctorates to have the highest stay rates of any foreign student based on IRS tax return filings
• 10-year stay rates also remain high and ‘brain circulation’ seems minimal
Stated intentions to return prior to the completion of their dissertation are largely unrealized by graduation, but why?
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
Source: Finn, 2010
Previous Studies
What factors have been influential in shaping these decisions?
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
• Gender• Presence of family (spouse/children) outside
the US* • Parent’s attitudes towards migration decision*• Returnee networks
Social Networks
• Political freedom and stability• Nationalist sentiments* • Visa worries*• Anti-Americanism
Political Dynamic
• Housing quality*• Income*• Career opportunities*• Entrepreneurial talents and access to
technology
Career and Economic Factors
There are numerous variables in the migration decision, but their relative importance in the decision making process unclear
* Studies from the past 10 years have indicated significant relationship with intention to return (p<0.1)
Ongoing Work: Using Conjoint Analysis
The job search process seems to be the critical driving force behind migration decisions
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
Conjoint analysis eliminates the problem that ‘everything’ is important by revealing the true preferences of the individual
• Current study seeks to simulate the actual job decision process for S&E PhDs and postdocs
• Conjoint analysis, a marketing research tool, is used to force respondents to make choices between various competing factors
• This method has been used widely beyond marketing, and been found effective for predicting preferences of job candidates
Ongoing Work
The following proposed hypotheses will be tested using this approach
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
• Hypothesis #1:• Chinese S&E graduate students and postdoctoral scholars do not return
home in percentages equal to their stated intention because the marginal utility of returning to the PRC versus staying in the US cannot be provided by the current salaries offered by the Chinese labor market
• Hypothesis #2:• Chinese students that have a higher willingness to return home will
score higher on the national pride index
• Hypothesis #3:• Chinese students that have a higher willingness to return home are
more likely to have a business already or a strong interest in starting a business
Ongoing Work: Methodology
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
• Consists of 15 questions based on factors from previous studies (e.g. Family, entrepreneurial leanings, nationalism)
• Nationalism questions based on University of Chicago longitudinal study on national pride (Smith and Kim, 2006)
Demographics and Attitudinal
• Consists of two main parts: Pairwise comparison and Individual ranking of 25 different job options
• Job profiles vary based on location, proximity to family, job title, employer, and annual salary
Conjoint Analysis Exercises
• 388 S&E PhD candidates and post-docs at UCLA were contacted to participate in online survey after extensive focus group testing
• Current response rate: ~40%
Population
Ongoing Work: Methodology
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
• Job offer attributes and levels were generated with the help of Robert Zeithammer, a marketing professor at UCLA Anderson
• Profiles generated to ensure balance (each level of each attribute should appear the same # of times) and orthogonality (attributes should be combined independently)
Conjoint questions consist of different attributes and levels
ProfileJob location
(Nation)Job location
(Region) Hometown Employer Job Title Annual SalaryCollected Preference
(0-100)1 China Coastal No Public Lab Director $45,000 652 China Coastal No Private R&D Manager $20,000 253 China Coastal No Private Research Engineer $70,000 754 US Coastal No Public R&D Manager $20,000 155 China Central Yes Private Lab Director $120,000 1006 China Central Yes Public R&D Manager $70,000 857 China Central Yes Public Lab Director $20,000 558 US Central No Public Research Engineer $45,000 40
Job profiles
Attributes
Scholars’ measured preference
24 China Central Yes Public R&D Manager $30,000 5525 US Coastal No Private Research Engineer $85,000 70
···
···
···
Job Location: Nation Job Location: Region Hometown Employer Annual Salary
ProfileCollected Preference
(0-100) US Central Yes Public R&D Manager Lab Director Salary1 65 0 0 0 1 0 1 45,000$ 2 25 0 0 0 0 1 0 20,000$ 3 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 70,000$ 4 15 1 0 0 1 1 0 20,000$ 5 100 0 1 1 0 0 1 120,000$ 6 85 0 1 1 1 1 0 70,000$ 7 55 0 1 1 1 0 1 20,000$ 8 40 1 1 0 1 0 0 45,000$
Job Title
Y X
Step 1: Collection of data
Step 2: Dummy coding and regression
Respondents’ ratings of each job profile are coded to allow regression to be run for the dependent variable (Y) and independent variables (X)
PartworthsChina 14.26
US 0.00Coastal 12.04Central 0.00
Hometown, Yes 14.42Hometown, No 0.00
Public 6.84Private 0.00
R&D Engineer 0.00R&D Manager 0.00Lab Director 4.61
Salary 73.36
Marginal utilities generated with coefficients from multiple regression
Regression Statistics
Multiple R R Square Adj.RSqr Std.Err. # Cases0.950089025 0.902669155 0.845892828 10.965127 20
Summary Table
Variable Coeff. Std.Err. t Stat. P-valueIntercept 16.05 12.35 1.30 0.22Central -12.04 6.38 -1.89 0.08
Lab_Director 4.61 7.46 0.62 0.55Public 6.84 7.00 0.98 0.35
R_D_Manager -0.01 7.74 0.00 1.00Salary 0.00073 0.00 6.01 0.00
US -14.26 6.05 -2.36 0.04Yes 14.42 6.45 2.24 0.04
Attribute Best Partworth Importance WeightJob location(Nation) 14.26 11%Job location(Region) 12.04 10%
Hometown 14.42 11%Employer 6.84 5%Job Title 4.61 4%
Annual Salary 73.36 58%Total 125.53 100%
363,1$036.73
000,20$000,120$$
utileper
So in this example, the respondent would be willing to give up $19,500 in annual salary in order to work in China rather than the US ($1363 x 14.26)
Step 3: Translate regression coefficients into marginal utilities (partworths)
Step 4: Partworths can be used to calculate importance weights and monetize preferences
Using the results from the regression to determine the partworths (marginal utility) for each attribute allows for the relative importance to be determined, as well as estimate the value respondents place on one attribute over another
The Way Forward
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
• Finalize survey data collection in March for UCLA, possible expansion to two more universities for comparative purposes
• Analyze individual responses and utility functions Determine unique ‘exchange rate’ for each respondent
• Determine how results differ using demographic and attitudinal questions• Are entrepreneurs, high scorers on nationalism questions, family
back home more willing to ‘give up’ higher salaries in the US to return home?
Agenda
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
Background Past surveys of Chinese students in the US
Factors shaping migratory decisions
Hypotheses
Methodology
Way Forward
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
Previous StudiesSeveral surveys of Chinese students in the US have been carried out in the past 20 years
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
• Focus is on those studies that looked at the stated intention to return, a useful indicator for future migration decisions (Alzen and Fishbein, 1980; Li et al., 1996)• Zhang, 1992: Explored effects of post-Tiananmen politics on
return rates• Zweig and Chen, 1995: In depth study on the causes and
consequences of Chinese brain drain to the US• Kellogg, 2006: Looked at the impact of 9/11 on students stated
intention to return and influences of nationalism• Wadhwa et al., 2009: Attempts to substantiate reports during the
financial crisis that foreign students in the US believe better opportunities lie elsewhere
Previous Studies
What factors have been influential in shaping these decisions?
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
• Concerns about political freedom and stability featured strongly in many older studies (Huang, 1988; Zhang, 1992; Zweig and Chen, 1995)
• Higher expressions of nationalist belief, as expressed by greater agreement with the Chinese government on select policies and a desire to give back to their country, was shown to be correlated with higher intentions to return (Kellogg, 2006)
• While the visa worries have lessened since Congressional reforms, obtaining a work visa remains a significant concern
• Anti-Americanism does not appear to have a significant impact (Kellogg, 2006; Wadhwa et al., 2009)
• Gender had a significant impact on returning in Zweig and Chen’s study, but by 2005 this was no longer a clear differentiator
• Presence of family (spouse/children) outside the US and parent’s attitudes towards returning also found to be significant (Zweig and Chen, 1995; Kellogg, 2006)
• Returnee networks and difficulty in transitioning back to a guanxi-based professional environment also cited(Chen, 2006; )
Social Networks
Political Dynamic
Previous Studies
What factors have been influential in shaping these decisions?
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
• Zweig and Chen’s survey showed differences in economic indicators based on the presence of children. Housing quality for those with children and income and overall economic wellbeing for those without children were significant.
• Appealing career opportunities were found to be important in numerous studies, which included aspects like job title, salary, and autonomy in research
• Belief that the US offered better career opportunities went from 50% (Kellogg, 2006) to 27% (Wadhwa et al., 2009) showing the impact of the economic downturn
• Individuals with entrepreneurial talents and access to technology unavailable in Chinese markets have numerous incentives to return (Zweig et al., 2006)
Career and Economic Factors
There are numerous variables in the migration decision, but their relative importance in the decision making process unclear
Ongoing Work: Methodology
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
Nationalism questions look at both general and domain specific national pride
Source: Smith, Tom and Seokho Kim. (2006). World Opinion: National Pride in Comparative Perspective: 1995/96 and 2003/4. International Journal of Public Opinion Research. 18(1) :127-135.
Ongoing Work: Preliminary Results
Introduction Previous Studies Ongoing Work
Definitely will go back and have made arrangements to do so
Definitely will go back, but don't know when
Probably will go back and have kept up strong ties with China
Probably will go back but have not kept up ties
Not very likely to go back, but might go if things changed in China greatly
Definitely will not go back
Can't really say now
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