Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Results from the Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot
CCACMarch 17, 2011
Danielle KreegerPartnership for the Delaware Estuary
http://www.delawareestuary.org/science_projects_climate_ready_products.asp
How do we even begin to plan for climate change in a system as large and complex as the Delaware Estuary?
PDE Climate Ready Pilot
How will climate change in the Delaware Estuary?
How will changes impact key resources?
What actions are recommended to make these resources more resilient?
What if we don’t take action?
3 case studies
How Will Climate Change?Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years
Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events
Sea Level 0.6 - 1.5 m by 2100 (or more) local rates >> global
Chester Creek, PA October 1, 2010
Salinity
Storms ?
Growing Season
as per Dr. Ray Najjar
Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish
Drinking Water
Case Studies
Future Status
Vulnerabilityand Options
Rankings
Recommendations
Delaware Estuary Pilot
A Signature Trait of SystemNear Contiguous BandDiverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes
Brackish Marshes Salt Marshes
Nature’s BenefitsFlood ProtectionWater QualityFish and WildlifeNatural AreasCarbon Sequestration
Tidal Wetlands – Why?
Tidal Wetland VulnerabilityFreshwater Tidal Marshes
• Salinity Rise• Barriers to Landward Migration• Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting
Salt Marshes
• Sea Level Rise• Storms and Wind Wave Erosion• Barriers to Landward Migration• Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives
Tidal WetlandsVulnerability Survey & Results
Table 3-3. Comparison of the effectiveness and feasibility of various potential adaptation options for addressing the main vulnerability of tidal freshwater we Table 3-3. Comparison of the effectiveness and feasibility of various potential adaptation options for addressing the main vulnerability of tidal freshwater wetlands and brackish/saltwater wetlands exposed to changing sea level, salinity, precipitation/storms, and carbon dioxide levels by 2100 in the Delaware Estuary. tlands and brackish/saltwater wetlands exposed to changing sea level, salinity, precipitation/storms, and carbon dioxide levels by 2100 in the Delaware Estuary.
Tidal Fresh Tidal Salt/Brackish
Med-High Med-HighMed-Low LowMed-Low Med-LowMed-Low Med-HighMed-Low Med-Low
High HighestMed-High Highest
High HighestHigh Highest
Med-High High Med-High High Med-High Med-High
High HighestHigh Highest
Highest Med-HighHighest Med-High
High Med-LowHighest Med-Low
Med-High Med-LowMed-Low Med-Low
Med-High Med-LowMed-High Med-LowMed-Low Med-LowMed-Low Med-LowMed-High Med-LowMed-High Med-LowMed-High Med-High
Low LowLow Low
Sea Level Rise
Salinity Range Increase
Precipitation & Storms
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Productivity Desiccation, flooding or erosionSediment supply Physical impacts by wind, waves and surge
Shifts in Community Species Composition Productivity
Change in Habitat Support Productivity Invasive Species
Shifts in Community Species Composition Salt exposure/stress events Change in Habitat Support
Rate of Channel Scour Storm surge susceptibilitySeaward edge erosion
Shifts in Community Species Composition Salt Water Intrusion to Fresh Water Habitats Salt exposure/stress event
Shifts in Community Species Composition Ability of Accretion Rate to Equal RSLR Rate Ability for Landward Migration Change of Marsh Area Increased Tidal Range (Upper River)Ratio of shoreline edge to marsh area
Shifts in Community Species Composition Desiccation of Marsh Sediments Change in Habitat Support Productivity Invasive Species
Temperature Change
Ranking Vulnerability
1Sea Level Rise Effects on Brackish/Saltwater Wetlands
2Salinity Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands
3Sea Level Rise Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands
4Precipitation and Storm Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands
5Precipitation and Storm Effects on Brackish/Saltwater Wetlands
The Top Five….
Tidal Wetlands – Adaptation Options
• Protection of Natural Buffers• Structure Setbacks• Living Shorelines• Strategic Retreat • Managing Water Flows (salinity)• Managing Sediments
Needs
• Geospatial Approach • Regional Sediment Budget Linked to Tidal Wetland Ecosystem Model• LIDAR, Land Use, Modeling and Climate Monitoring Data• Assessment Methods to Prioritize Adaptation Tactics
Wetland Tough Choices• Where will they be converted
to open water?• Where can we save them ?• Where is strategic retreat the best option?
Next Generation Living ShorelinesSoft Armoring With Natural Communities
May June September
2000
2000 2100
>25% Loss of tidal wetlands! What If We Don’t Take Action?What If We Don’t Take Action?
• Conversion of >40,000 ha Uplands to Wetlands• Conversion of >100,000 ha Wetlands to Water• Loss of Services >> Acreage Losses
Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish
Drinking Water
Case Studies
Future Status
Vulnerabilityand Options
Rankings
Recommendations
Delaware Estuary Pilot
Bivalves of the Delaware
DRBC
Crassostrea virginica
Elliptio complanata
Geukensia demissa
11 Other Species of Freshwater Unionid Mussels
Mya arenaria
Rangia cuneata
Corbicula fluminea
Mytilus edulis
Ensis directus
Mercenaria mercenaria
CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project
Nature’s BenefitsNature’s BenefitsBivalve Shellfish are Bivalve Shellfish are
“Ecosystem Engineers“Ecosystem Engineers”
Kreeger
Oyster ReefsOyster Reefs
Mussel BedsMussel Beds
StartStart
8 adult mussels8 adult musselsNo musselsNo mussels
Biofiltration PotentialBiofiltration Potential
Slide from Dick Neves, VA Tech
LaterLater8 adult mussels8 adult musselsNo musselsNo mussels
Slide from Dick Neves, VA Tech
Biofiltration PotentialBiofiltration Potential
Bivalves – IssuesFreshwater Mussels are Imperiled
See posters, Thomas et al., Kreeger et al.
Scientific Name Scientific Name DE NJ PAALASMIDONTA HETERODON DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL Endangered Endangered Critically Imperiled
ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA TRIANGLE FLOATER Extirpated ? Threatened Vulnerable
ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA BROOK FLOATER Endangered Endangered Imperiled
ANODONTA IMPLICATA ALEWIFE FLOATER Extremely Rare no data Extirpated ?
ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA EASTERN ELLIPTIO common common Secure
LAMPSILIS CARIOSA YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Vulnerable
LAMPSILIS RADIATA EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Imperiled
LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS GREEN FLOATER no data Endangered Imperiled
LEPTODEA OCHRACEA TIDEWATER MUCKET Endangered Threatened Extirpated ?
LIGUMIA NASUTA EASTERN PONDMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Critically Imperiled
MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA EASTERN PEARLSHELL no data no data Imperiled
PYGANODON CATARACTA EASTERN FLOATER no data no data Vulnerable
STROPHITUS UNDULATUS SQUAWFOOT Extremely Rare Species of Concern Apparently Secure
State Conservation Status
Patchy, Impaired
Elliptio complanata
Rare
Strophitus undulatus
Extirpated
Alasmidonta heterodon
Bivalve Projections – FW MusselsBivalve Projections – FW MusselsShifting Species Ranges, But No DispersalShifting Species Ranges, But No Dispersal
Bivalves – Issues
Oyster Disease and Salinity
www.livingclassrooms.org/lbo/dermo/oyster2.jpg
Susan Ford, Rutgers HSRL
Rutgers HSRL
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7
Year
Num
ber
per
Bus
hel
Oyster Spat Mean Oyster Mean Spat
1758 Longer Growing Season
Intertidal Niche Expansion?
To
day
2030
2060
Point of No Return
No HelpWith Help
2 Recruitment Events
Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory
Bivalve Projections – OystersBivalve Projections – OystersCan they be maintained until they might see better conditions?
Bivalve Projections – Ribbed MusselsBivalve Projections – Ribbed MusselsLosing Marsh HabitatLosing Marsh Habitat
Freshwater Mussels: imperiled, complicated live history, cannot tolerate salinity
Oysters: disease and salinity
Ribbed Mussels: losing marsh habitat
Impacts Depend on Species and Location
Options for Making Shellfish More ResilientOptions for Making Shellfish More Resilient
Shellplanting for OystersShellplanting for OystersPropagate MusselsPropagate Mussels
Riparian Riparian RestorationRestoration
Fish Passage Fish Passage RestorationRestoration
Water Quality & Water Quality & Flow ManagementFlow Management
•
Monitoring & Monitoring & ResearchResearch
Living ShorelinesLiving Shorelines
Table 5-12. Top five adaptation options to assist bivalve mollusks in adapting to climate change in the Delaware watershed, ranked by the Bivalve Work Group.
Ranking Adaptation Tactic 1 Plant Shell for Oysters
2 Propagate all Bivalves and Seed New Reefs/Beds
3 Restore Riparian Buffers for Freshwater Mussels
4 Manage Water Flow to Minimize Effects of Flooding on Freshwater Mussels and Salinity on Oysters and Freshwater Tidal Bivalves
5 Maintain Water Quality for all Bivalves
What Actions Are What Actions Are Recommended for Recommended for Shellfish?Shellfish?
What if We Don’t Act?What if We Don’t Act? Natural Capital at Risk
Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish
Case Studies
Drinking Water
Future Status
Vulnerabilityand Options
Rankings
Recommendations
Delaware Estuary Pilot
Drinking Water - Why?
• Drinking water for >16 million • Philadelphia – 1.4 million • New York City
Drinking Water Vulnerabilities
Effects on Drinking Water
• Degraded source water quality
• Salinity Intrusion
• Power Outages
• Customer Supply Issues
• Erosion of infrastructure
• Obsolete Supply Systems
• In direct path of flooding, storm surges, and sea level rise
Drinking Water Tough Questions
• How can we maintain low salinity in the upper estuary?
• Will more reservoirs be needed and where?
• Where should infrastructure be protected?
Drinking Water – Adaptation Options
• Infrastructure protection• Resilient Materials , Modern Upgrades
• Minimize water demand• Water Efficiency, BMP’s
• New treatment & distribution system• Able to with-stand inundation
• Prevent increased stormwater runoff
• Protect source water with forests & buffers
• Disinfection of wastewater
Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network
Many Other Issues
•DredgingDredging
•Ecological Ecological FlowsFlows
•WithdrawalsWithdrawals•Wind FarmsWind Farms
•DevelopmentDevelopment
•Marcellus Marcellus ShaleShale
•Emerging PollutantsEmerging Pollutants
•Spills, NRDASpills, NRDA
•Land Use Land Use ChangeChange
Climate Change + Other Changes
Added Complexity
The Big Wild Card Storms
Overall ImpactsAs expected, sea level rise,
flooding and precipitation effects are major concerns across all case studies
However, vulnerability to salinity rise in the Delaware Estuary is somewhat unique, and especially notable because this system has the world’s largest freshwater tidal prism.
Take Home Messages• Not all changes to natural resources will be damaging, but there will be many more losers than winners
• Need a Paradigm Shift: Plan and “restore” for the future rather than the past, dynamic rather than static conditions
• Adaptation will require investment to protect lives and livelihoods
• Proactive investment today will save money in the long term due to compounding of ecosystem services
- End -
Delaware Estuary Pilot