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Workshop to Explore the New SMA/SSP Approach, Changwon , Korea
Won-Tae KwonNational Institute of Meteorological Research
Korea Meteorological Administration
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NIMR/KMA
RCPs & CMIP5
Preliminary Results – Projected Changes
- Global temperature and rainfall
- Sea ice extent & Ocean acidification
- Climate extreme indices
- East Asia: Hydrology, run off, soil moisture
Regional Downscaling Experiment: CORDEX
Outlines
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NIMR/KMA
CO2 Emissions and Radiative Forcing for Historic & RCP scenarios
CO2 Emissions Anthropogenic & natural Radiative Forcing
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NIMR/KMA
Land use Change (Cropland & Pasture)
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NIMR/KMA
Evolution of Climate Models
The complexity of climate models has increased over the last few decades.
(IPCC, 2007)Target: Climate System
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NIMR/KMA
Regional Climate ModelLocal-scale Downscaling
Impact/Vulnerability Assessment
Adaptation Measures
Socio-EconomicScenario
GHG emissionScenario
Global Climate Model
Future Climate ProjectionConcentrationsGHGs, Aerosols
Radiative Forcing Land Cover+
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NIMR/KMA
CMIP5 Experiments: Near-Term and Long-term
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
Near-term Experiment Long-term Experiment
WCRP: World Climate Research Programme
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NIMR/KMA
Primary Group Country Primary Contact Primary Group Country Primary Contact
NERSC Norway M. Bentsen, H. Drange CSIRO & QCCCE AustraliaL. Rotsyayn, J. Syktus, S.
Jeffrey
Hadley Centre U.K. M. Collins, C. Jones NCAR U.S. J. Hurrell, G. Meehl
GFDL U.S.T. Delworth, I. Held, L. Horowits, R. Stouffer
MRI MRI M. Kimoto
IPSL & LMD France J.L. Dufresne, S. BonyNIMR(with Hadley
Centre)Korea W.T. Kwon
NIES & U. Tokyo JapanS. Emori, M. Kawamiya,
M. KimotoLASG IAP China T.Zhou, B. Wang
CCCMa Canada G. Flato NASA GISS U.S. G. Schmidt
MPI Germany M. Giorgetta BCC ChinaQ. Li, Y. You, Z. Wang, T.
Wu, Y, Xu
INGV Italy S. Gualdi INM Russia E. Volodin
EC-Earth Eourope W. Hazeleger CERFACS&CNRM France S. Planton/D Salas Melia
CSIRO & BMRC Australia T. Hirst, K. Puri U. Reading U.K. L. Shaffrey
NASA GSFC U.S. M. Suarez
CMIP5 Modeling Groups
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NIMR/KMA
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
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NIMR/KMA
Global temperature anomaly (HadGEM2-AO)reference period: 1971-2000
Projected Changes in Global Surface Temperature
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NIMR/KMA
ANN (C)
RCP8.5 4.8
RCP4.5 2.8
Projected Changes in Surface Temp (2070-2099)
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NIMR/KMA
Projected Changes in Regional Surface Temperature
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NIMR/KMA
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
200 400 600 800 1000
Tem
pera
ture
anom
alies
[℃]
CO2 [ppm]
Historical run
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
CO2 Concentration & Temperature Change
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NIMR/KMA
Global precipitation anomaly (HadGEM2-AO)reference period: 1971-2000
Projected Changes in Global Precipitation
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NIMR/KMA
ANN (%)
RCP8.5 6.0
RCP4.5 4.5
Projected Changes in Precipitation (2070-2099)
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NIMR/KMA
Projected Changes in Regional Precipitation
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NIMR/KMA
Cold day Hot day
Historic(1861-2005)
future(2006-2099)
Trends in Temperature Indices
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NIMR/KMA
Changes in Precipitation Indices
Historic(1971-2000)
RCP8.5(2070-2099)
Prcp days Prcp Total
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NIMR/KMA
Observed and simulated anomalies in sea ice extent for the Northern Hemisphere
Changes in Sea Ice Extent
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NIMR/KMA
2020s 2050s 2080s
2020s: 2.2% 2050s: 7.2% 2080s: 23.8%
Precipitation Change (%)
River Outflow and Change (%) over Yangtze River Mouth
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NIMR/KMA
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NIMR/KMA
2020s 2050s 2080s
RC
P8.5
Depth : 0~5 m
2020s 2050s 2080s
RC
P8
.5
Depth : 0~5 mOcean Temperature Change (℃)
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NIMR/KMA
Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)
• Why downscaling?
– IAV communities’ demand for high resolution climate information.
– GCMs are not enough to resolve local features and their extremes.
OBS GCM RCM
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NIMR/KMA
Summary
• Preliminary results from the CMIP5 experiments based on new RCP scenarios– Information on global land cover change applied– Using HadGEM2-AO (collaboration with UKMO Hadley Centre)– In general, the results is similar to the CMIP3 experiment– New information from model improvements, such as river discharge,
etc. – CORDEX regional experiment underway– Data size ~ 2 PB for global & regional data (Korea only)
• Need further analysis using multi-model ensemble from CMIP5 to assess the range of global and regional climate projection
• Need further model improvement, such as cloud, carbon cycle, dynamic vegetation, dynamic ice melting, resolution, etc., to understand the response of the global climate system under future scenario higher computing power, data storage
• Better regional climate projection for better impact and vulnerability assessment on regional/national scales
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