Workshop to Explore the New SMA/SSP Approach, Changwon , Korea

Won-Tae KwonNational Institute of Meteorological Research

Korea Meteorological Administration

NIMR/KMA

RCPs & CMIP5

Preliminary Results – Projected Changes

- Global temperature and rainfall

- Sea ice extent & Ocean acidification

- Climate extreme indices

- East Asia: Hydrology, run off, soil moisture

Regional Downscaling Experiment: CORDEX

Outlines

NIMR/KMA

CO2 Emissions and Radiative Forcing for Historic & RCP scenarios

CO2 Emissions Anthropogenic & natural Radiative Forcing

NIMR/KMA

Land use Change (Cropland & Pasture)

NIMR/KMA

Evolution of Climate Models

The complexity of climate models has increased over the last few decades.

(IPCC, 2007)Target: Climate System

NIMR/KMA

Regional Climate ModelLocal-scale Downscaling

Impact/Vulnerability Assessment

Adaptation Measures

Socio-EconomicScenario

GHG emissionScenario

Global Climate Model

Future Climate ProjectionConcentrationsGHGs, Aerosols

Radiative Forcing Land Cover+

NIMR/KMA

CMIP5 Experiments: Near-Term and Long-term

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5

Near-term Experiment Long-term Experiment

WCRP: World Climate Research Programme

NIMR/KMA

Primary Group Country Primary Contact Primary Group Country Primary Contact

NERSC Norway M. Bentsen, H. Drange CSIRO & QCCCE AustraliaL. Rotsyayn, J. Syktus, S.

Jeffrey

Hadley Centre U.K. M. Collins, C. Jones NCAR U.S. J. Hurrell, G. Meehl

GFDL U.S.T. Delworth, I. Held, L. Horowits, R. Stouffer

MRI MRI M. Kimoto

IPSL & LMD France J.L. Dufresne, S. BonyNIMR(with Hadley

Centre)Korea W.T. Kwon

NIES & U. Tokyo JapanS. Emori, M. Kawamiya,

M. KimotoLASG IAP China T.Zhou, B. Wang

CCCMa Canada G. Flato NASA GISS U.S. G. Schmidt

MPI Germany M. Giorgetta BCC ChinaQ. Li, Y. You, Z. Wang, T.

Wu, Y, Xu

INGV Italy S. Gualdi INM Russia E. Volodin

EC-Earth Eourope W. Hazeleger CERFACS&CNRM France S. Planton/D Salas Melia

CSIRO & BMRC Australia T. Hirst, K. Puri U. Reading U.K. L. Shaffrey

NASA GSFC U.S. M. Suarez

CMIP5 Modeling Groups

NIMR/KMA

PRELIMINARY RESULTS

NIMR/KMA

Global temperature anomaly (HadGEM2-AO)reference period: 1971-2000

Projected Changes in Global Surface Temperature

NIMR/KMA

ANN (C)

RCP8.5 4.8

RCP4.5 2.8

Projected Changes in Surface Temp (2070-2099)

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Projected Changes in Regional Surface Temperature

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-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

200 400 600 800 1000

Tem

pera

ture

anom

alies

[℃]

CO2 [ppm]

Historical run

RCP4.5

RCP8.5

CO2 Concentration & Temperature Change

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Global precipitation anomaly (HadGEM2-AO)reference period: 1971-2000

Projected Changes in Global Precipitation

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ANN (%)

RCP8.5 6.0

RCP4.5 4.5

Projected Changes in Precipitation (2070-2099)

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Projected Changes in Regional Precipitation

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Cold day Hot day

Historic(1861-2005)

future(2006-2099)

Trends in Temperature Indices

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Changes in Precipitation Indices

Historic(1971-2000)

RCP8.5(2070-2099)

Prcp days Prcp Total

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Observed and simulated anomalies in sea ice extent for the Northern Hemisphere

Changes in Sea Ice Extent

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2020s 2050s 2080s

2020s: 2.2% 2050s: 7.2% 2080s: 23.8%

Precipitation Change (%)

River Outflow and Change (%) over Yangtze River Mouth

NIMR/KMA

NIMR/KMA

2020s 2050s 2080s

RC

P8.5

Depth : 0~5 m

2020s 2050s 2080s

RC

P8

.5

Depth : 0~5 mOcean Temperature Change (℃)

NIMR/KMA

Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)

• Why downscaling?

– IAV communities’ demand for high resolution climate information.

– GCMs are not enough to resolve local features and their extremes.

OBS GCM RCM

NIMR/KMA

Summary

• Preliminary results from the CMIP5 experiments based on new RCP scenarios– Information on global land cover change applied– Using HadGEM2-AO (collaboration with UKMO Hadley Centre)– In general, the results is similar to the CMIP3 experiment– New information from model improvements, such as river discharge,

etc. – CORDEX regional experiment underway– Data size ~ 2 PB for global & regional data (Korea only)

• Need further analysis using multi-model ensemble from CMIP5 to assess the range of global and regional climate projection

• Need further model improvement, such as cloud, carbon cycle, dynamic vegetation, dynamic ice melting, resolution, etc., to understand the response of the global climate system under future scenario higher computing power, data storage

• Better regional climate projection for better impact and vulnerability assessment on regional/national scales