Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Climate Information for Society
Roberto J. MeraClimate Modeling Laboratory
Marine, Earth and Atmospheric SciencesNorth Carolina State University
National Climatic Data Center February 19th, 2010
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Global Warming?
Recent events showcase the uncertainties inherent in the study of world climate
It also offers us an opportunity to examine how climate change (natural or anthropogenic) relates to the general public
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Ongoing Research
The questions facing decision makers are all multivariate in nature and shrouded in many vexing uncertainties
Our work at the North Carolina State University (NCSU) Climate Modeling Laboratory (CML) explores the interface between climate information and end user applications
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Uncertainties
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
The Future of Climate Science: Climate
ApplicationsHow will climate change affect healthcare?
How will it affect food supply and energy demand?
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
EducationIn 2008, UNC-Asheville’s Strategic Plan stated
that the business community, government agencies and public policy-makers have identified climate change as an economic development priority for the region
In 2009, plans for a Master’s degree in Climate Information for Society acquired support from the Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department at NC State University
This degree also benefits from collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Plans for the degree are moving forward and classes could begin as early as fall 2011
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Internships & Opportunities
A list of parties interested in a Climate and Society Master’s student:NCDC, Oakridge National Laboratories, Forest
Service, NC State Climate Office, Unison Engine Components, Volvo North America, Mission Hospitals, Henderson Co., Durham Co., Orange Co., Town of Chapel Hill, City of Asheville, Biltmore Estate, Nature Conservancy, Progress Energy, Land of Sky, NC State Energy Office, SRC, AquaTerra, WildSouth
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Prospective students
Undergraduate studentsMid-career studentsBackgrounds vary from economics to environmentalsciences, visual arts, non-profit,
engineering,meteorologists, planners, government,business administration, ecology
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
International Perspective
Interest on graduate and undergraduate climate change programs has gained momentum in West Africa and South America
Collaboration with the SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START) program
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
NOAA ISET @ NCSU
Involves collaboration of PI's from Marine Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Mathematics, Physics at NCSU, NCA&T, and CUNY and divided into two sub groups:
Analysis of Observing Systems: Severe Storms & Hurricanes Research Analysis of Observing Systems: Physical and numerical research approach
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
NOAA ISET @ NCSU
Recent Research:--African Easterly Wave interaction with Isentropic Descent off the coast of West Africa--GIS modeling of coastal flooding due to hurricanes in North Carolina--Variability of springtime westward-propagating disturbances in West Africa
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Relevance to Society
The general population is more concerned with their own applications (health, agriculture, insurance)
Climate data products are often too complex or irrelevant for the public sector
New technology and techniques are required to relay climate information
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Problems with data
The development of relevant products for society is reliant on the data available
Much of the data is limited in scope, accessibility and format
In-situ data, for example, is sometimes scattered and incomplete, making it less useable for agricultural management
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Data Access
The US has an advantage over other countries that struggle with data acquisition and formats
We work with various institutions to streamline conversion of climate data for specific applications
New developments in the US are aimed at streamlining data access and visualization for specific applications
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Dissemination
Collaborators:World Climate Research Programme, World Bank
UCAR/USGS – Rocky Mountains Climate Response Center, cooperation between end-users and climate modelers (DeWayne Cecil, Jeffrey Kershner)
Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) – GIS-based visualization products of extreme events / topography
Google.org / UCAR Africa Initiative (meningitis outbreaks) – using IDV, GIS, GraDs, NCL and other graphics
interface software
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Meningitis Outbreaks in West Africa: A Climate
Application StudyGoogle/UCAR Africa Initiative Project
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Meningitis in Africa
• Meningitis is a serious infectious disease affecting 21 countries
• 300 million people at risk• 700,000 cases in the past
10 years• 10-50 % case fatality rates
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Meningitis-Climate link• Outbreaks coincide with dry, dusty conditions over the Sahel due
to the Harmattan winds• Largest correlation occurs between humidity and disease
outbreaks (Molesworth et al., 2003)• Disease occurrence drops dramatically with the onset of humidity
January July
SHLSHL
Har
mat
tan
Moi
sture
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Largest correlation occurs between humidity and disease outbreaks (Molesworth et al., 2003)Disease occurrence drops dramatically with the onset of humidityPrevious studies have been aimed at specific locations and for the start of meningitis
Pink: # of cases Orange: Relative Humidity (%)
1998 2004
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Current Efforts
• UCAR, in conjunction with IRI, NCSU, Navrongo (Ghana) Health Research Center are working on a prototype Earth-gauging system integrating weather and health data to manage meningitis
• The latest research was presented at the World Health Organization (WHO) Meningitis Environmental Risk Information Technologies (MERIT) project meeting in Niamey, Niger in 2009
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Google/UCAR Project at NCSU
• Recent work for the MERIT project has been aimed at constructing a decision tree on “action threshold” for vaccine implementation
• This decision tree, however, does not include climate information at this point
• Our aim is to address the climate factors pertinent to meningitis mitigation
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Our Study: Predictability of Atmospheric Moisture
• What are the variables important for the prediction of the moisture regime?
• What are the sources of moisture in West Africa during the Boreal Spring?
• Can regional climate models forecast moisture transport dynamics?
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
The VariablesVariables related to the West Africa monsoon have the
highest correlation with meningitisWe use relative humidity (RH) as an indicator in our
study
From Yaka et al (2008)
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Sources of Moisture• We employ a parcel back-trajectory analysis utilizing u and v wind
components from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for 2000-2008• The end points surface is set at 925mb
*NCEP: National Centers for Environmental Prediction*NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Source Regions
66.7%
15.9%
16.7%
0.8%
NW SaharaNE Sahara
Europe
NE Tropical Atlantic
0.7%7.8%1.4%
14.2%
19.9%
7.8%
2.8%
0.7%
44.7%
NW Sahara
NE Sahara
Europe
North Atlantic
Gulf of Guinea
NE Tropical Atlantic
Guinea Coast
Sahel
South Atlantic
20.0%
73.6%
1.6%
4.8%
Gulf of Guinea
Guinea Coast
Sahel
South Atlantic
P1
P3
P2
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
• Analysis of added value of dynamical downscaling• We use the Weather Research and Forecasting WRF Model
as both a predictive and analytical tool for• High resolution reanalysis• Real-time forecasts• Sensitivity experiments• Comparison with large-scale models
Dynamical Downscaling
Scale of relevance
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Advantages of Dynamical Downscaling
WRF at 30km resolution NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis at 2.5°
Ghana Ghana
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Attack rates reanalysis & WRF
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Advantages of Dynamical Downscaling
Kano
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Relaying InformationWe use prototype GIS technology to deliver climate-
related information for meningitis mitigation in West Africa
We can overlay climatic conditions of different types (remote sensing, in-situ, model) over meningitis attack rate reports
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Sample pages
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
IDV Visualization
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Future Work
• Data assimilation of satellite and in-situ information for further analysis of the meningitis-climate interface
• Integration of WRF into meningitis prediction• Simulations using spectral nudging to retain large
scale information from the air mass source regions
• Stratification of predictive model skill for different modes of variability
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Communication
Updates on our work: http://climlab.meas.ncsu.edu/googleucartwitter.com/climlab
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Acknowledgements
Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University
Questions?