climate modeling laboratorymeasnc state university climate information for society roberto j. mera...

Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University

Climate Information for Society

Roberto J. MeraClimate Modeling Laboratory

Marine, Earth and Atmospheric SciencesNorth Carolina State University

National Climatic Data Center February 19th, 2010


Global Warming?

Recent events showcase the uncertainties inherent in the study of world climate

It also offers us an opportunity to examine how climate change (natural or anthropogenic) relates to the general public


Ongoing Research

The questions facing decision makers are all multivariate in nature and shrouded in many vexing uncertainties

Our work at the North Carolina State University (NCSU) Climate Modeling Laboratory (CML) explores the interface between climate information and end user applications


Uncertainties


The Future of Climate Science: Climate

ApplicationsHow will climate change affect healthcare?

How will it affect food supply and energy demand?


EducationIn 2008, UNC-Asheville’s Strategic Plan stated

that the business community, government agencies and public policy-makers have identified climate change as an economic development priority for the region

In 2009, plans for a Master’s degree in Climate Information for Society acquired support from the Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department at NC State University

This degree also benefits from collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Plans for the degree are moving forward and classes could begin as early as fall 2011


Internships & Opportunities

A list of parties interested in a Climate and Society Master’s student:NCDC, Oakridge National Laboratories, Forest

Service, NC State Climate Office, Unison Engine Components, Volvo North America, Mission Hospitals, Henderson Co., Durham Co., Orange Co., Town of Chapel Hill, City of Asheville, Biltmore Estate, Nature Conservancy, Progress Energy, Land of Sky, NC State Energy Office, SRC, AquaTerra, WildSouth


Prospective students

Undergraduate studentsMid-career studentsBackgrounds vary from economics to environmentalsciences, visual arts, non-profit,

engineering,meteorologists, planners, government,business administration, ecology


International Perspective

Interest on graduate and undergraduate climate change programs has gained momentum in West Africa and South America

Collaboration with the SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START) program


NOAA ISET @ NCSU

Involves collaboration of PI's from Marine Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Mathematics, Physics at NCSU, NCA&T, and CUNY and divided into two sub groups:

Analysis of Observing Systems: Severe Storms & Hurricanes Research Analysis of Observing Systems: Physical and numerical research approach


NOAA ISET @ NCSU

Recent Research:--African Easterly Wave interaction with Isentropic Descent off the coast of West Africa--GIS modeling of coastal flooding due to hurricanes in North Carolina--Variability of springtime westward-propagating disturbances in West Africa


Relevance to Society

The general population is more concerned with their own applications (health, agriculture, insurance)

Climate data products are often too complex or irrelevant for the public sector

New technology and techniques are required to relay climate information


Problems with data

The development of relevant products for society is reliant on the data available

Much of the data is limited in scope, accessibility and format

In-situ data, for example, is sometimes scattered and incomplete, making it less useable for agricultural management


Data Access

The US has an advantage over other countries that struggle with data acquisition and formats

We work with various institutions to streamline conversion of climate data for specific applications

New developments in the US are aimed at streamlining data access and visualization for specific applications


Dissemination

Collaborators:World Climate Research Programme, World Bank

UCAR/USGS – Rocky Mountains Climate Response Center, cooperation between end-users and climate modelers (DeWayne Cecil, Jeffrey Kershner)

Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) – GIS-based visualization products of extreme events / topography

Google.org / UCAR Africa Initiative (meningitis outbreaks) – using IDV, GIS, GraDs, NCL and other graphics

interface software


Meningitis Outbreaks in West Africa: A Climate

Application StudyGoogle/UCAR Africa Initiative Project


Meningitis in Africa

• Meningitis is a serious infectious disease affecting 21 countries

• 300 million people at risk• 700,000 cases in the past

10 years• 10-50 % case fatality rates


Meningitis-Climate link• Outbreaks coincide with dry, dusty conditions over the Sahel due

to the Harmattan winds• Largest correlation occurs between humidity and disease

outbreaks (Molesworth et al., 2003)• Disease occurrence drops dramatically with the onset of humidity

January July

SHLSHL

Har

mat

tan

Moi

sture


Largest correlation occurs between humidity and disease outbreaks (Molesworth et al., 2003)Disease occurrence drops dramatically with the onset of humidityPrevious studies have been aimed at specific locations and for the start of meningitis

Pink: # of cases Orange: Relative Humidity (%)

1998 2004


Current Efforts

• UCAR, in conjunction with IRI, NCSU, Navrongo (Ghana) Health Research Center are working on a prototype Earth-gauging system integrating weather and health data to manage meningitis

• The latest research was presented at the World Health Organization (WHO) Meningitis Environmental Risk Information Technologies (MERIT) project meeting in Niamey, Niger in 2009


Google/UCAR Project at NCSU

• Recent work for the MERIT project has been aimed at constructing a decision tree on “action threshold” for vaccine implementation

• This decision tree, however, does not include climate information at this point

• Our aim is to address the climate factors pertinent to meningitis mitigation


Our Study: Predictability of Atmospheric Moisture

• What are the variables important for the prediction of the moisture regime?

• What are the sources of moisture in West Africa during the Boreal Spring?

• Can regional climate models forecast moisture transport dynamics?


The VariablesVariables related to the West Africa monsoon have the

highest correlation with meningitisWe use relative humidity (RH) as an indicator in our

study

From Yaka et al (2008)


Sources of Moisture• We employ a parcel back-trajectory analysis utilizing u and v wind

components from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for 2000-2008• The end points surface is set at 925mb

*NCEP: National Centers for Environmental Prediction*NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research


Source Regions

66.7%

15.9%

16.7%

0.8%

NW SaharaNE Sahara

Europe

NE Tropical Atlantic

0.7%7.8%1.4%

14.2%

19.9%

7.8%

2.8%

0.7%

44.7%

NW Sahara

NE Sahara

Europe

North Atlantic

Gulf of Guinea

NE Tropical Atlantic

Guinea Coast

Sahel

South Atlantic

20.0%

73.6%

1.6%

4.8%

Gulf of Guinea

Guinea Coast

Sahel

South Atlantic

P1

P3

P2


• Analysis of added value of dynamical downscaling• We use the Weather Research and Forecasting WRF Model

as both a predictive and analytical tool for• High resolution reanalysis• Real-time forecasts• Sensitivity experiments• Comparison with large-scale models

Dynamical Downscaling

Scale of relevance


Advantages of Dynamical Downscaling

WRF at 30km resolution NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis at 2.5°

Ghana Ghana


Attack rates reanalysis & WRF


Advantages of Dynamical Downscaling

Kano


Relaying InformationWe use prototype GIS technology to deliver climate-

related information for meningitis mitigation in West Africa

We can overlay climatic conditions of different types (remote sensing, in-situ, model) over meningitis attack rate reports


Sample pages


IDV Visualization


Future Work

• Data assimilation of satellite and in-situ information for further analysis of the meningitis-climate interface

• Integration of WRF into meningitis prediction• Simulations using spectral nudging to retain large

scale information from the air mass source regions

• Stratification of predictive model skill for different modes of variability


Communication

Updates on our work: http://climlab.meas.ncsu.edu/googleucartwitter.com/climlab


Acknowledgements


Questions?

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