Download - Climate Prediction Modeling at NCEP
Climate Prediction Modeling at NCEP
“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”1
Dr. Louis W. UccelliniNational Centers for Environmental Prediction
Director
Committee on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate ModelingWashington, D.C.
October 3, 2011
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Outline
• Define NCEP – Strategic Basis• Model Production Suite
– Link between weather and climate models• NCEP’s Climate Forecast System
– Recent upgrade to CFS Version 2.0– Reanalysis/reforecast
• Outreach– User/service workshop– COLA agreement– India MOU; model delivery
• Future CFS– Version 3.0 – engaging the community through the Climate Test
Bed– Multi-model ensemble
• Summary
NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate, Weather, and Ocean Products
Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.
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Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service
Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert, and preferred partner for environmental prediction services
Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations
Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction CenterOcean Prediction Center
National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center
Aviation Weather Center
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NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Week 2 Hazards Assessment
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
TPCOPCHPC
SWPCAWCSPC
Service Center Perspective
Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8
Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :
NDFD, Days 4 -7
6-10 Day ForecastM
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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
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NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Weather and Climate
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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
NCEP Model Perspective
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•North American Ensemble Forecast System
•Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP*)
•Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
•Global Forecast System
•North American Mesoscale
•Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation•Dispersion Models for DHS
•Global Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane WRF & GFDL
WavesReal Time Ocean Forecast System
Space Weather Tsunami
*To become available for NCEP operational seasonal prediction in Dec 2011
• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
• CPC Climate Test Bed
• NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed
• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed
• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL
• SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA
• AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed
• OPC IOOS Supported Test Bed (in discussion with NOS/IOOS)
Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community:
Accelerating the R2O Transition Process
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Launch List – Model Implementation Process
EMCNCO
R&D Operations Delivery
Criteria
Transition from Research to Operations (R2O)
Requirements
EMC
Schematics in the Model Transition Process
OPS Life cycleSupport
Service Centers
NOAAResearch
Concept of Operations
ServiceCenters
User
Ob
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Sys
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FieldOffices
Effort
EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations
Other Agencies&
International
Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability
ASI, COLA,ARCS
Operations to Research (O2R)
Test BedsCTB
JCSDAWRF DTC
JHT . .
“To Accelerate R2O,Need to Support O2R”
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Model Production SuiteLink between weather and climate models
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Air Quality
WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF
WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model
Regional NAMWRF NMM
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
Rapid Updatefor Aviation
Climate ForecastSystem
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA’s Model Production Suite
GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice
NOAH Land Surface Model
Coupled
Global DataAssimilation
OceansHYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM/CMAQ
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Regi
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DA
Satellites + Radar99.9%
~2B Obs/Day
NOS – OFSGreat Lakes
Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware
SpaceWeather
(Future)
ENLIL
Regi
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DA
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NCEP’s Climate Forecast System(CFS)
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NCEP Requirement for CFS
• CFS is the first dynamic model used for NCEP operational intra-seasonal and inter-annual forecasts– Operated in an ensemble mode (4/day)– To be combined with EUROSIP models as part of an International Multi-
model Ensemble (by December 2011)• Provides real-time ENSO forecast for El Nino, La Nina alerts,
watches and warnings• The CFS-based coupled Reanalysis
provides the best estimate of the state of the coupled climate system, which is the basis for operational climate monitoring and analyses.
• The CFS-based Reforecast provides basis for model calibration of CFS real time forecast used in CPC operations.
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CFSv1 implemented
CTB spun up
CFSv2 implemented
48 month running mean of Heidke Skill scores computed for seasonal outlooks of U.S. Surface Temperature for each 3-month seasonal mean
US Seasonal Temperature GPRA* Measure
*GPRA – Government Performance and Results Act
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Attribute CFS v1.0
Operational Since 2004
CFS v2.0
Operational Since March 2011Analysis Resolution 200 km 27 km (T574)
Atmosphere model 2003: 200 km/64 levels
Humidity based clouds
2010: 100 km (T126)/64 levels
Variable CO2
AER SW & LW radiation
Prognostic clouds & liquid water
Retuned mountain blocking
Convective gravity wave drag
Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S
1/3 x 1 deg.
Assim depth 750 m
MOM-4 fully global
¼ x ½ deg.
Assim depth 4737 m
Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation
2-level OSU LSM
No separate land data assim
4 level Noah model
GLDAS driven by obs precip
Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and 3-layer interactive sea ice model
Coupling Daily 30 minutes
Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background
Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background
Reforecasts
(Real-time extension)
15/month seasonal output 24/month (seasonal)
124/month (week 3-6)
NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS) – Recent upgrade (March 30, 2011)
T126
Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)
• A T384/L64 (~ 38 km) reanalysis from 1979 – present (GFS/GSI – Atmosphere; MOM4 -Ocean; NOAH/GLDAS – Land; Sea Ice model)
• A semi-coupled data assimilation– 6 hour guess forecast from a coupled model– Followed by independent ocean and atmosphere reanalysis
• Implemented operationally in March 2011• Data availability from National Climatic Data Center
CFSR data dumps (GB/Month)
Number of OceanTemperature Profiles/month 1980-2009
Time
<--
Dep
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Climate Reforecast for CFS Version 2
• A coupled prediction system for extended-range and seasonal predictions ; Implemented March 2011, – Atmospheric model -resolution T126, 64 vertical levels– Ocean model (MOM4) horizontal resolution: 1/2 Deg. in zonal direction; 1/4
Deg between 10S-10N gradually increasing to 1/2 Deg poleward of 30S and 30N, Vertical Resolution: 40 layers; with 27-layers in upper 400m, and a bottom at approximately at 4.5 km in the ocean
• Atmosphere/Ocean/Land/Sea Ice Initial conditions from the CFS Reanalysis
• Reforecasts for calibration– Seasonal (9-month): 1981 – 2010 (4 runs every five days)– Extended-range (45-day) – 1999-2010 (4 runs every day)– Over 10,000 years of reforecasts
• Data availability from the NCDC
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Outreach
• CFS Needs Assessment Workshop (Mar 2011)
• COLA agreement (Jul 2009)• India MOU (Nov 2010; model delivery
(Apr 2011)
• Goals– Identify CFS users’ needs for model codes and datasets– Develop formal prioritized needs assessment– Develop priority for real-time availability– Identify gaps– Scope user needs for NMME
• Workshop attended by 50 (private industry, academia, federal, state and local agencies)
• Results/Requirements– Internal services agreement between NCEP and NCDC in
development to identify issues, requirements and options for high priority CFS development, execution, archive and dissemination activities
• Real-time and reliable access to CFS ensembles, reanalysis, reforecast• Refinements to the reanalysis including downscaling, and at model
resolution• More open process for defining CFS version 3• Reanalysis Lite (unify resolution)
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CFS Needs Assessment WorkshopMarch 8, 2011
COLA-NCEP CFS Collaboration
• Letter of agreement: “Access to the NCEP Climate Forecast System” signed 15 July 2009
– Over 40 peer-reviewed papers 2008 - 2011
• Examples of CFS.v2 research efforts at COLA– Decadal experiments (1960-2010 initial conditions) per CMIP5 protocol– Extension of CFS.v2 to the CFS Interactive Ensemble (CFSIE)– Long free simulations with CFS.v2 and their analysis– Hypothesis-based experiments to address the weak AMOC variability in CFS.v2– Diagnostics of CFS.v2 hindcasts
• COLA ported CFS.v2 on different computing platforms (with some help from NCEP); COLA’s experience will help NCEP port CFS.v2 on NOAA’s research HPC
Weaker AMOC Drift in Sea Ice thickness – Too much
melt?
Implementation Agreement on Modeling Between NCEP and Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), India
• Implementation agreement signed November, 2010– To develop and transfer extended range and seasonal forecast
systems that will permit more accurate and timely predictions of Indian Monsoons for enhancing food security and other agricultural uses
• April 2011 - NCEP scientists delivered the operational version of the GFS/GSI and CFS.v2 to the MoES
• April 11-15, 2011, NCEP scientists held a workshop at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) on specialized training on the GFS/GSI and CFS.v2
• A jointly funded "Monsoon Desk" has been set up at NCEP to coordinate numerical model simulations and diagnostics with IITM and IMD during the next five years
• Already documenting improved Monsoon, precipitation and MJO forecasts
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Future CFS– Version 3.0 – engaging the community through the Climate
Test Bed– Multi-model ensemble opportunities
• Organized by Climate Test Bed (CTB) • 48 participants: scientists from NCEP (EMC and CPC), NOAA management,
US modeling centers (GFDL, NCAR, NASA/GSFC), international modeling centers (ECMWF, Italy/CMCC, India/IITM, Taiwan/CMB), other centers/labs of NOAA (PMEL, NWS/OST, ESRL, NWS/OHD) and scientists from universities and non-profit research institutes (COLA).
• Define NOAA’s requirements and strategy for CFSv3• Role of CTB to enhance NCEP collaborations with external community for CFS
development• Identify range/role of CFS within MMEs (international and national): MME’s
representing a major “force for change” in the model and service provider communities
• Next Steps• Hold a CFS Science Workshop focused on CFSv2 evaluations in Spring, 2012• Develop a White Paper on CFSv3 Development Strategy based on recommendations
from the CFSv3 planning meeting
Expectations
Results of CFS Version 3 Planning Meeting August 25-26, 2011
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Commitments for CFSv3
• NCEP Human Resources• EMC:
o Model implementation o Data assimilationo Reanalysis/reforecast
• NCOo Model implementation o Sustaining the operational model suite
• CPC: o Model diagnosis/evaluationo Applications for operational ISI forecasts
• CTB: o Outreach to the research communityo Providing a model testing environment for CFS evaluation, diagnosis and improvement o Supporting Climate Process Teamso Facilitates the transfer of specific advances back into NCEP operational version
• NOAA Computer Resourceso GAEA – Site Ao ZEUS – Site Bo Operational WCOSS
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Future
• IMME – EUROSIP• NMME
– working toward “experimental real-time”– Coordinated and assessed through the Climate Test Bed– Working toward a CONOPS for operational real-time
prediction
• Real-time archive CFS– Reanalysis– Reforecast– Daily forecasts
Table 1. NMME Phased Strategy – coordinated through the Climate Test Bed
Activities Description Forecast Type
Participating Models
Where, What and Who
Financial Support
Data Archive and Distribution
Phase-I: NMME Opportunity
Ad hoc NMME system based on existing hindcasts from each modeling center
Experimental NMME forecastStarted in August 2011
NCEP (CFSv1, CFSv2)GFDL (CM2.2)IRI (Echam4-a & 4-f)NCAR (CCSM3.0)NASA (GEOS5)
i) Each modeling center runs the reforecasts and real-time forecast in their own computers. ii) NCEP obtains the hindcasts and real time forecasts and makes routine real-time monthly and S/I forecasts
CPO i) Each modeling center provides data to the NMME team members; ii) IRI disseminates the monthly mean hindcast and real-time data (3 variables)
Phase-II:Purposeful NMME
A designed NMME system as a research prototype in preparation for operations
Experimental NMME forecast during the FY12-13 research project
Potential models:NCEP (CFSv2)GFDL (CM2.5)IRI (Echam4)NCAR (CCSM4.0, and CESM1.0) NASA (GEOS5)
Same as Phase-I, except NCAR/CCSM4 and ICHAM models will generate their hindcasts and real time forecasts at NOAA computer (GAEA)
CPO i) Each modeling center provides data to the NMME team members; ii) IRI archive the monthly data; iii) and NCDC archives hindcasts and realtime data including daily data from selected models (resources required)
Phase-III:Operational NMME
An operational NMME ISI prediction system at NCEP
Operational NMME Forecast after FY13 and after the value of NMME is demonstrated
TBD Three options are listed in Table 2. The issue needs to be resolved through an open review process. For all options, NCEP will obtain the data and make operational real time ISI forecasts.
CPO NCDC archives and disseminates the NMME hindcast and real time data (resources required)
Table2. Three Options for Hindcasts and Real time Forecasts in the Operational NMME Prediction System
Operational NMME
Reforecasts Real-time forecasts
Pros Cons and Requirements
Option 1 Each modeling center Each modeling center
1) Easy to be transitioned to operations since it’s same as Phase-I and II; 2) minimum workload for NCEP (i.e., NCEP needs only to obtain hindcasts and real-time data and make real time forecasts); 3) easy to upgrade models; 4) minimum NCO involvement; 5) can leverage other modeling centers efforts since they general hindcasts for their own uses (e.g., model evaluations);
Need to sign agreements between NCEP and each modeling center to ensure real time delivery of hindcasts and real time forecasts. The agreements should include required resources (financial, HPC, personnel).
Option 2 NCEP NCEP Delivery of real-time operational forecasts is guaranteed
1) NCEP needs to port other models to NCEP computer; 2) NCEP needs to train personnel to run other models to generate hindcasts and real-time forecasts; 3) requires tremendous storage; 4) hard to upgrade models
Option 3 Each modeling center NCEP 1) Leverage other modeling centers efforts since they generate hindcasts for their own uses (e.g., model evaluations and calibration) and thus less work for NCEP; and 2) less storage requirement at NCEP compared to Option 2.
1) NCEP needs to port other models to NCEP computer; 2) NCEP needs to train personnel to run other models to make real-time forecasts; and 3) hard to upgrade models, 4) Need to sign agreements between NCEP and each modeling center to ensure on-time delivery of hindcasts.
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Summary
• NCEP has successfully provided an operational Climate Forecast System– First dynamical model used by CPC– Improved seasonal/ENSO forecasts
• Research community has become increasingly involved with the use of CFS version 1 and 2 for monsoon, MJO, decadal, and other research topics
• NCEP is committed to support version 2 to version 3 improvements and related “O2R” “R2O” paradigm
• NCEP is positioned to help address ongoing opportunities/challenges related to creating a real-time NMME
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Appendix
Computing Capability
• Transition to IBM Power 6 complete– Declared operational
August 12, 2009– 73.1 trillion calculations/sec– Factor of 4 increase over the
IBM Power5 – 156 POWER6 32-way nodes– 4,992 processors– 20 terabytes of memory – 330 terabytes of disk space– 3.5 billion observations/day– 27.8 million model fields/day
• Primary: Gaithersburg, MD• Backup: Fairmont, WV
– Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes
– Web access to models as they run on the CCS
“reliable, timely and accurate”
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