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Coastal Process ModelingUS Army Corps of Engineers
Jeff HansonResearch Oceanographer
MORPHOS Program Manager
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC)Field Research Facility (FRF) - Duck, NC
NOAA NWS Ocean Modeling Workshop, NCEP, 14-15 January 2008
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Field Research FacilityEstablished in 1977 to Advance Coastal Knowledge
Through Research and Discovery
• Observations
• Modeling
• Model Validations
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MORPHOS Program MORPHOS Program
Advancing Coastal Process Research, Modeling and Risk Advancing Coastal Process Research, Modeling and Risk AssessmentAssessment
Waves Circulation
Atmosphere
Sediment
MISSION:Develop, verify and apply a physics based coastal and estuarine
simulation and prediction capability with emphasis on storm-driven events
2004
2005
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Waves Circulation
Atmosphere
Sediment
MORPHOS Program ElementsMORPHOS Program Elements
Community Steering
Coastal Modeling System
Research and Development
Community Tools
• Risk Assessment• Project Design• Event Reconstruction
Test and Evaluation
• Critical Data Sets• Model Test Bed
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Morphos Program TeamMorphos Program Team
Oceanweather Inc.
Baird and Associates, Inc
Applied Research Associates, Inc.
Non-Linear Waves, Inc.
Risk Engineering, Inc.
Watershed Concepts Inc
Waves and Solitons, LLC
Alkyon Hydraulic Consultancy & Research
Woolpert, Inc.
Private Industry
Government Agencies
US Army Corps of Engineers
NOAA NCEP, National Weather Service
USGS Woods Hole Science Center
Academic Institutions
University of North Carolina
University of Delaware
Brigham-Young University
DelftTU
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Ecosystem Process
Habitat,Water Quality
Nearshore Process
MorphologyChange
Regional Circulation ModelWater Levels,
Surge
Basin Wave Model Regional Wave Model
Coastal Response ModelingCoastal Response Modeling
Basin Winds Regional Winds
Meteorology Model
Need: Dynamic, 2
-Way
Model Coupling
Risk/Climate Model
Storm Parameters:Tracks, Intensity, Size,
Probability
Historical Storms
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North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program
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Model Validation Test Bed:IOOS Partnership
Analysis
AnalysisData Bank
Performance Evaluation Model Diagnostics
Process Models
Waves Circulation
Atmosphere
Morphology
Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (MEDS)
High-QualityMeasurements
Concept Diagram
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Model Validation Test Bed:IOOS Partnership
Analysis
AnalysisData Bank
Performance Evaluation Model Diagnostics
Process Models
Waves Circulation
Atmosphere
Morphology
Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (MEDS)
High-QualityMeasurements
Concept Diagram
Observation IOOS Linkage
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Model Validation Test Bed:IOOS Partnership
Analysis
AnalysisData Bank
Performance Evaluation Model Diagnostics
Process Models
Waves Circulation
Atmosphere
Morphology
Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (MEDS)
High-QualityMeasurements
Concept Diagram Modeling IOOS Linkage
Observation IOOS Linkage
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FRF Modelin
g:
SWANNearsho
reWaves
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FRF ModelValidationPage:
Integration of CoastalObservatio
ns
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Tropical Storm Noel Tropical Storm Noel SWAN Model ValidationSWAN Model Validation
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Wave Model Evaluation and Wave Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (WaveMEDS)Diagnostics System (WaveMEDS)
Temporal Correlation
Quantile-Quantile
Statistics are performed on any measured attribute
-Error Metrics include- RMS Error- Bias- Scatter Index- Circular Correlation and Bias (directions)
Model Performance Scores - Folded with sample size weighting function
WaveMEDS
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Coastal ModelingCoastal ModelingCollaboration OpportunitiesCollaboration Opportunities
• Historical Storm Archive- track parameters
• Risk assessment technology
• Computational grid development – high res topo/bathy
• High-fidelity model technology advances
• Dynamic model coupling – capture the physics
• Collection of critical data sets
• Quantitative model test and evaluation -Test Bed
USACE Mission Critical Needs:
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Thank you…