61st Interdepartmental HurricaneConference

Kim CurryDeputy Technical Director

Oceanographer of the Navy

Interagency Strategic Research PlanFor Tropical Cyclones – A View from

The Top

Bottom Line Up FrontQuestion: What are Navy strengths in Tropical Cyclone Research? - Development of Navy models NOGAPS / COAMPS - Funding of academia, industry and federal laboratories - Vigorous research program in coupled ocean and atmosphere models - Efficient end-to-end research to operations transition

Question: Which research priorities detailed in the inter-agency strategic research plan is Navy addressing? - Coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling and data assimilation - Quantitative use of remote sensing observations - Impact of Tropical Cyclones on the maritime domain

Question: What resources can Navy bring to bear on TC research? - Basic research (6.1) ~ $3.5M / yr - Applied research (6.2) ~ $2M / yr - Transition to Operations (6.4) ~ $600K / yr

BLUF (Cont)Question: From the policy perspective, how can Navy help gain inter-agency support for TC research through individual agency budgets and on Capitol Hill?

Navy will continue to participate at the appropriate mission levelin Joint development programs and interagency activities

59th IHC -Operational Requirements2005

• Validated 14 Operational Requirements of the TC Forecast and Warning Centers

• Department of Defense emphasized their top three Operational Requirements (OR):

1. Improved track forecasts out to 5 days2. Improved structure forecasts: radius of 50-kt and 35-kt wind radii3. More accurate forecasts of wave heights and radius of 12 foot seas

60th IHC - Research Requirements2006

•Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) ) system developed by Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Monterey to optimize the forecasting process.

Operational Users include: Joint Typhoon Warning Center National Hurricane Center Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Navy sponsored R&D includes: Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilistic Prediction of High Impact Weather Multi-Scale Tropical Dynamics

Developmental efforts in Ocean Coupling and Data Assimilation directly enable TC track and intensity forecasts

A new ONR Department Research Initiative (DRI) beginning in FY08-First major WESTPAC field experiment since TCM93- $10M over 5 years (basic research), leveraging T-PARC-Focus on lack of understanding of storm scale processes (the biggest knowledge gap)

GOALS:- Increase the predictability of the environmental forcing, formation, outer

wind structure and intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific - Reduce errors in TC structure and intensity forecasts by 50% within a

decade

The Impact of Storm-Scale Processes on the Predictability of The Impact of Storm-Scale Processes on the Predictability of Western Pacific TyphoonsWestern Pacific TyphoonsPOCs: Ronald J. Ferek, Ph.D. & POCs: Ronald J. Ferek, Ph.D. & CDR Daniel Eleuterio, Ph.D.CDR Daniel Eleuterio, Ph.D.

ONR 322MMONR 322MM

Office of Naval ResearchBasic and Applied

Explore Our Planet WebsiteTropical Cyclones 1850-2006

Characterizing Impact OfTyphoons On The Western Pacific Ocean

Linwood Vincent, Ph.D & Terri Paluszkiewicz, Ph.D Physical Oceanography, ONR 322PO

An Ocean Parallel to Dr. Ferek’s WESTPAC Typhoon Proposal

A new ONR Department Research Initiative (DRI) beginning in FY08- Building on ONR CBLAST Hurricane Program- $12M over 5 years (basic research)- Focus on improved prediction of waves & mixed layer

GOALS:- Enhance methods to monitor waves and winds from SAR for

Assimilation into coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere models- Improve representation of wave induced mixing in upper ocean- Use SAR assimilating model to study storm passages around islands

and onto shelves

ONR - Science Issues/Gaps:

Forecast models do not represent all the physicsUp-scale transfer of energy is not well understood.Observations are sparse/inadequate in critical regionsInadequate quantitative use of all the available RS data Storm scale processes are poorly understoodProgress is now possible on TC Evolution ProblemModels & DA are getting betterCoupling to the ocean, modulated by wavesCloud-resolving model skill has advanced

Experimental assets will be available in the WestPac for the first time since 1993Once-a-decade opportunityT-PARC has focused the research community

Many new satellite remote sensing tools have become available since ’93Several more by 2008Verification vs. TC observations has never been done

9-km

ONR - Naval Relevance

• Increased medium-range predictability of the tropical large-scale environmental factors that influence tropical cyclone formation

• Increased predictability of the location, timing, and rate of tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific

• Increased predictability of the evolution of the outer-wind structure of intensifying and mature tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific

• Increased understanding and predictability of factors that determine motion of a TC through ET or landfall over the western North Pacific

Naval Research Laboratory Support for TC Research

Tropical cyclone research at NRL is performed in the following areas: TROPICAL DYNAMICS AND PHYSICS

Tropical predictability. Cyclogenesis. Air-sea interaction.

DATA ASSIMILATION Atmosphere and Ocean New data sources Advanced methodologies Targeted observing techniques Improved TC initialization

MODEL DEVELOPMENT Air-Ocean-Wave-Land coupling Improved multiscale ocean and numerical weather prediction Ensemble/consensus/probabilistic guidance techniques.

SATELLITE DATA FUSION

DECISION AIDS (e.g., ATCF)

72 h forecast of the 850 mb vorticity from the control (shaded) and the improved convective scheme (contours)

LC

N

Genesis location of Lisa (verification)

Position from the Control

From new improvedconvective scheme

General Research Topic

Tropical Cyclone Genesis

512

km

Wilma

General Research Topic

Intensity and Structure Changes

Small-Scale Atmospheric Models: COAMPS Upgrade• Two-way Interactive grids• CBLAST Surface/Boundary Layer physics• Dynamic TC Initialization• Land/Surface Model

Program Executive Office –PMW180Research to Operations

Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) System• Forecast development software• Incorporate new data sources, algorithms, technology

Intensity & Structure via Multi-Sensor Combination• Transition Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data to FNMOC/JTWC• Newly developed multi-sensor (passive microwave/IR/Sounder) assimilation

NRL is developing fully coupled systems that include ocean data assimilation and prediction capability for u, v, t, S, SSH, waves, and surf.

.

ATMOSPHERE(COAMPS/NAVDAS)

WAVES(WAVEWATCHIII

SWAN)Sfc currents, water level

Bottom drag, Sfc stressESMF

Improved winds

Sea state-dependent

Z0, C

λ/2

Impr

oved

wind

s,

surfa

ce flu

xes

Sea S

urfac

e Tem

p.

OCEAN(NCOM/NCODA)

ESMFESMF

General Research Topic

Role of the Ocean

ADCIRC Coastal and Estuarine Modeling Team Cheryl Ann Blain, T. Christopher Massey, James D. Dykes, Pamela G. Posey NRL Code 7300

STORM SURGE PREDICTION SYSTEM

000 WTNT25 KNHC 062031 TCMAT5 000 WTNT25 KNHC 062031 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005

2100Z FRI JAN 06 2006 2100Z FRI JAN 06 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSIONTROPICAL DEPRESSION

CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 50.3W …50.3W …

… … FORECASTER STEWART $$ FORECASTER STEWART $$

Run PC-Tides –

Obtain Holland Hurricane Model Winds

Run ADCIRC

Interpolate Winds to Mesh

WWW NHC Marine Advisory Data

12

3

4DELIVERED TO NAVOCEANO, May 2006

Questions?