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12TH
FEBRUARY 2013
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Sterling Falls on Report that theBoE will Cut Its Growth Forecast
Despite markets remaining closed on Monday in Japan
and China for respective holidays, the Aussie, Pound,
and Yen all started the week with significant declinesagainst the US Dollar in Forex trading.
The British Pound saw a sharp 60 point decline against
the US Dollar over the European session because of an
article by the UK Telegraph. The Telegraph reported
that the three-month Bank of England inflation report,
which is set to be released on Wednesday, will raise
the inflation forecast to above 2% until 2015 while
lowering the growth forecast. The Telegraph predictedsome dovish comments from the BoE report despite
the higher inflation. The lower growth forecast would
contradict earlier comments by BoE Governor King,
who said a gentle recovery is underway in the UK.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.3405 tgs
1.3425/1.3445 sl
1.3385
BUY USDJPY ABOVE
93.45 tgt 92.65/9.80
SL 93.25
SELL GBPUSD
BELOW 1.5679 tgt
1.5665/1.5651 SL
1.5685
HEADLINES
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HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3366
HIGH: 1.3405
LOW: 1.3357
CLOSE: 1.3384
EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND : BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>. 0005(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 51(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
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HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 92.55
HIGH: 93.45
LOW: 92.45
CLOSE: 93.32
USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => 0011( BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>63(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5799
HIGH: 1.5810
LOW: 1.5679
CLOSE: 1.5684
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD => .0005( BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 20(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8459
HIGH: 0.8537
LOW: 0.8457
CLOSE: 0.8536
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>.-002(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>29(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ECONOMIC CALENDER
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 80.2120
HIGH: 80.3470
LOW: 80.1080
CLOSE: 80.3190
USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>0.045(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>65(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Mon
Feb 1100:30
AUD Home Loans(DEC)
Medium -1.5% 0.0% -0.7%
00:30AUD Value of Loans(MoM) (DEC)
Low -2.7% 0.5%
00:30AUD InvestmentLending (DEC)
Low -2.4% -3.2%
13:30
EUR Euro-Area
Finance Ministers Meetin Brussels
High
21:45NZD NZ CardSpending (MoM) (JAN)
Medium 0.4%
21:45NZD NZ CardSpending - Retail(MoM) (JAN)
Medium 0.3% 0.3%
23:50JPY Japan MoneyStock M3 (YoY) (JAN)
Low 2.3% 2.2%
23:50JPY Japan MoneyStock M2+CD (YoY)(JAN)
Low 2.6% 2.6%
Tue
Feb 12
EUR GermanWholesale Price Index(YoY) (JAN)
Low 3.2%
EUR GermanWholesale Price Index(MoM) (JAN)
Low 0.0%
00:01GBP RICS House PriceBalance (JAN)
Medium 1% 0.0%
00:30AUD NAB BusinessConfidence (JAN)
Medium 3
00:30AUD RBA Credit CardPurchases (DEC) Low $A21.8B
00:30AUD RBA Credit CardBalances (DEC)
Low $A49.5B
00:30AUD NAB BusinessConditions (JAN)
Low -4
06:00JPY Machine ToolOrders (YoY) (JAN P)
Medium -27.5%
08:15CHF Consumer PriceIndex (YoY) (JAN)
Medium -0.3% -0.4%
08:15CHF CPI - EUHarmonised (YoY)(JAN)
Medium -0.3%
08:15CHF Consumer PriceIndex (MoM) (JAN)
Low -0.3% -0.2%
08:15CHF CPI - EUHarmonised (MoM)(JAN)
Low 0.1%
09:30GBP Core ConsumerPrice Index (YoY)(JAN)
High 2.4% 2.4%
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09:30
GBP Consumer PriceIndex (YoY) (JAN)
High 2.7% 2.7%
09:30GBP Retail Price Index(YoY) (JAN)
Medium 3.2% 3.1%
09:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Output n.s.a.(YoY) (JAN)
Medium 2.0% 2.2%
09:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Output Coren.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)
Medium 1.4% 1.5%
09:30GBP Consumer PriceIndex (MoM) (JAN)
Medium -0.5% 0.5%
09:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Output n.s.a.(MoM) (JAN)
Low 0.2% -0.1%
09:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Output Coren.s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low 0.1% 0.0%
09:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Input n.s.a. (YoY)(JAN)
Low 1.0% 0.3%
09:30GBP Producer PriceIndex Input n.s.a.(MoM) (JAN)
Low 0.8% -0.2%
09:30GBP DCLG UK HousePrices (YoY) (DEC)
Low 2.0% 2.1%
09:30GBP Retail Price Index(MoM) (JAN)
Low -0.5% 0.5%
09:30GBP Retail Price IndexEx Mort Int.Payments(YoY) (JAN)
Low 3.1% 3.0%
09:30GBP Retail Price Index(JAN)
Low 245.6 246.8
12:00USD MortgageDelinquencies (4Q)
Low 7.4%
12:00USD MBA MortgageForeclosures (4Q)
Low 4.1%
12:30USD NFIB SmallBusiness Optimism(JAN)
Low 89 88
15:00USD JOLTs JobOpenings (DEC)
Low 3676
16:30USD Fed's GeorgeSpeaks on theEconomy in Nebraska
Low
19:00USD Monthly BudgetStatement (JAN)
Medium -$2.00B -$27.41B
23:30AUD WestpacConsumer Confidence(FEB)
Medium 0.6%
23:30AUD WestpacConsumer ConfidenceIndex (FEB)
Low 100.6
23:50JPY Tertiary IndustryIndex (MoM) (DEC)
Medium 0.7% -0.3%
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23:50
JPY DomesticCorporate Goods PriceIndex (YoY) (JAN)
Low -0.3% -0.6%
23:50JPY DomesticCorporate Goods PriceIndex (MoM) (JAN)
Low 0.2% 0.3%
Wed
Feb 1300:30
USD Fed's PlosserSpeaks on EconomicOutlook in Stanford
Low
00:30USD Fed's LackerSpeaks on Economics
in Lancaster
Low
08:15CHF Producer & ImportPrices (YoY) (JAN)
Low 1.0% 1.0%
08:15CHF Producer & ImportPrices (MoM) (JAN)
Low 0.0% 0.1%
10:00EUR Euro-ZoneIndustrial Productionw.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)
Medium -2.4% -3.7%
10:00EUR Euro-ZoneIndustrial Productions.a. (MoM) (DEC)
Low 0.2% -0.3%
10:30 GBP Bank of EnglandInflation Report
High
12:00USD MBA MortgageApplications (FEB 8)
Low
13:30USD Advance RetailSales (JAN)
High 0.1% 0.5%
13:30USD Retail Sales LessAutos (JAN)
Medium 0.1% 0.3%
13:30USD Retail Sales ExAuto & Gas (JAN)
Low 0.4% 0.6%
13:30USD Retail Sales"Control Group" (JAN)
Low 0.2% 0.6%
13:30USD Import Price Index(YoY) (JAN)
Low -1.5%
13:30USD Import Price Index(MoM) (JAN)
Low 0.8% -0.1%
15:00USD BusinessInventories (DEC)
Medium 0.3% 0.3%
15:30USD DOE U.S.Gasoline Inventories(FEB 8)
Low
15:30USD DOE U.S.Distillate Inventory(FEB 8)
Low
15:30USD DOE U.S. CrudeOil Inventories (FEB 8)
Low
15:30USD DOE Cushing OKCrude Inventory (FEB8)
Low
16:10
USD Fed's Bullard toSpeak on Economy atArkansas StateUniversity
Low
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21:30
NZD Business NZPerformance ofManufacturing Index(JAN)
Medium 50.1
21:45NZD Food Prices(MoM) (JAN)
Low -0.2%
23:50JPY Nominal GrossDomestic Product(QoQ) (4Q P)
High 0.0% -0.9%
23:50JPY Gross Domestic
Product (QoQ) (4Q P)High 0.1% -0.9%
23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct Annualized(4Q P)
High 0.4% -3.5%
23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct Deflator (YoY)(4Q P)
Low -0.5% -0.8%
Thu
Feb 14
JPY Bank of JapanRate Decision (FEB 14)
High -0.2% 0.10%
CNY Actual FDI (YoY)(JAN)
Medium -0.2% -4.5%
00:00AUD ConsumerInflation Expectation(FEB)
Medium 2.0%
00:00NZD ANZ ConsumerConfidence (MoM)(FEB)
Low 3.1%
00:00NZD ANZ ConsumerConfidence Index(FEB)
Low 118.3
04:00JPY TokyoCondominium Sales(YoY) (JAN)
Low -3.0%
06:30
EUR French Gross
Domestic Product(YoY) (4Q P)
Medium 0.5% 0.0%
06:30EUR French GrossDomestic Product(QoQ) (4Q P)
Low -0.5% 0.1%
07:00EUR German GrossDomestic Productw.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P)
High 0.9%
07:00EUR German GrossDomestic Productn.s.a. (YoY) (4Q P)
High 0.4%
07:00EUR German GrossDomestic Product s.a.(QoQ) (4Q P)
Medium 0.2% 0.2%
09:00EUR ECB PublishesMonthly Report
High
09:00
EUR Italian GrossDomestic Product s.a.and w.d.a. (YoY) (4QP)
Medium -2.4%
09:00
EUR Italian GrossDomestic Product s.a.and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4QP)
Low -0.2%
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EUR Euro-Zone GrossDomestic Product s.a.(YoY) (4Q A)
High -0.6%
10:00EUR Euro-Zone GrossDomestic Product s.a.(QoQ) (4Q A)
Medium -0.1%
13:30USD Initial JoblessClaims (FEB 10)
Medium 360K 366K
13:30USD Continuing Claims(FEB 3)
Low 3200K 3224K
15:30USD EIA Natural GasStorage Change (FEB8)
Low -118
21:45NZD Retail Sales ExInflation (QoQ) (4Q)
Medium -0.4%
23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Stocks (Yen)(FEB 8)
Low
23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Bonds (Yen)(FEB 8)
Low
23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Stocks (Yen)(FEB 8)
Low 419.5B
23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Bonds (Yen)(FEB 8)
Low
Fri
Feb 15
USD Revisions ofProducer Price Index
Low
01:35CNY MNI FebruaryFlash BusinessSentiment Indicator
Low
02:00NZD Non ResidentBond Holdings (JAN)
Low 64.0%
04:30JPY IndustrialProduction (YoY) (DECF) (DEC F)
Medium -7.8%
04:30JPY IndustrialProduction (MoM)(DEC F) (DEC F)
Low 2.5%
04:30JPY CapacityUtilization (MoM) (DECF) (DEC F)
Low -0.2%
05:00
USD G20 FinanceMinisters and CentralBank Governors
Meeting in Russia
Medium
09:30GBP Retail Salesw/Auto Fuel (YoY)(JAN)
Medium 0.9% 0.3%
09:30GBP Retail Sales (YoY)(JAN)
Medium 1.6% 1.1%
09:30GBP Retail Salesw/Auto Fuel (MoM)(JAN)
Low 0.5% -0.1%
09:30GBP Retail Sales(MoM) (JAN)
Low 0.5% -0.3%
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10:00
EUR Euro-Zone TradeBalance s.a. (euros)(DEC)
Low 10.6B 11.0B
10:00EUR Euro-Zone TradeBalance (euros) (DEC)
Low 12.0B 13.7B
13:30USD EmpireManufacturing (FEB)
Low -2 -7.78
13:30CAD ManufacturingShipments (MoM)(DEC)
Low -0.5% 1.7%
14:00USD Net Long-termTIC Flows (DEC)
Medium $52.3B
14:00CAD Existing HomeSales (MoM) (JAN)
Medium -0.5%
14:00USD Total Net TICFlows (DEC)
Low $27.8B
14:15USD Manufacturing(SIC) Production (JAN)
Medium 0.2% 0.8%
14:15USD IndustrialProduction (JAN)
Medium 0.2% 0.3%
14:15USD CapacityUtilization (JAN)
Low 78.9% 78.8%
14:55USD U. of MichiganConfidence (FEB P)
High 74.5 73.8
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