Dutch bargain

or

Dutch treat?

Reference projections for Energy and Emissions in the Netherlands

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Why projections ?

Assessing whether the Netherlands will meet the national emission ceilings

If not, what further measures/policies are needed?

Input for modeling future health and ecosystem impacts.

Latter is used for spatial planning procedures.

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How projections ?

projection ≠ prediction; projections are scenario’s

Method:

• Eproj = Aproj * ef proj

• Eproj = possible future Emission

• Aproj = possible future Activity

• ef proj = possible future Emission Factor

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Scenario’s envisaged

Pri

vate

resp

on

sib

ility

International co-operation

National sovereignty

Strong EuropeSE

Pu

blic

resp

on

sib

ility

TransatlanticMarket

TM

Global EconomyGE

RegionalCommunities

RC

Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 5

History of projections

• Lessons from the past

• Late eighties “Concerns for tomorrow”

• 1989-2006: 6 Environmental outlooks

• Quality of projections? What were the

problems?

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Historical trend

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Policy and measures

starting point is ‘concrete’ policy, meaning

• sufficiently operational, • accompanied by instruments,• funded,• laid down in an official document and• for which powers have been granted.

• Following this CLE, an Additional Measures scenario is constructed

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Overview of policy: transport

• Emission standards for (road) transport

• BPM (car and motorcycle); purchase tax differentiation by relative energy efficiency

• sulphur level standards for fuels

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Overview of policy: agriculture

• Compulsory use of manure storage covers• Compulsory low-emission application of manure to

land• Low-emission livestock housing• Use standards (manure policy)• BEES1 to reduce NOx emissions in glasshouse

horticulture

• 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree

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Overview of policy: other

• NOx ETS

• 1BEES • Dutch Emissions Guidelines (NeR) • IPPC-BAT• Oil to gas fuel switch• NMVOC Reduction Plan• Solvents Decree and• Voluntary Agreements on Working Conditions

• 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree

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Measures in the pipeline

• SO2 agreements with refineries and energy producers

• IPPC-BAT• Oil to gas fuel switch• NMVOC Reduction Plan• Solvents Decree and• Voluntary Agreements on Working Conditions

• 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree

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Latest projections

• Reference Projections Energy and Emissions 2005-2020

• Two scenarios picked for reference projections: • Global Economy and Strong Europe.

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Input for projections

• growth factors for different sectors from CPB (economical), LEI (agricultural), FOI (industry), ECN (energy) and NEAA (population, socio-economic, etc.)

• technological advancements from various international and national institutes (e.g. BREF documents)

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2050 Workshop

• request for ‘aspirational’ scenario for 2050. • TFIAM seeking co-operation with other groups. • national experts available who could share

experiences on longer term scenario building ‘backcasting’ the necessary steps.

• ‘2050-workshop’ end 2008 with goal to publish a paper in spring 2009.

• link with climate modeling strategies

please contact rob.maas@mnp.nl

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Thank you !