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Alessandro Galli, PhD.
Ankara, Turkey March 26-27, 2014
Ecological Footprint: Technical Training Seminar
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OBJECTIVES
Aims of this training are to:
• Re-engage after the launch of the Turkish Ecological Footprint report
• Build capacity on Ecological Footprint
• Present and discuss Footprint results for Turkey.
• Listen and elicit your top asks • Discuss the potential role of the
Footprint in supporting Turkish Strategic Plans and Activities
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The Fish Game
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Day
Nu
mb
er
of
Fis
h
Stock
Take
Growth
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1. The fishery is only so big, and only makes so many fish each year.
The capacity of nature to provide resources and absorb wastes is not infinite.
2. More fish can be harvested each year then are born… for a short time.
We can exceed this capacity temporarily, and might not even notice (overshoot).
3. As more fish are harvested then are born, the fishery shrinks, and less are born.
Overshoot leads to degradation of the Earth’s ecosystems.
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4. Eventually, the fishery shrinks so much that no more (or very few) fish are born each year. It is difficult to recover from this situation.
Once the planet’s resources become degraded, they take a very long time to recover.
5. To prevent the fishery from collapsing, and provide maximum fish for the fishermen, we need to know what Nature knows!
Information about Nature’s supply and human demand is critical for management.
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Day
Nu
mb
er
of
Fis
h
Stock
Take
Growth
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[overshoot]
Global Overshoot
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Num
ber
of E
art
hs
Source: WWF, 2006
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You cannot manage what you
cannot measure
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OK! But what should we
measure?
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Our energy demand is growing
Past trends
Expected future growth
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Our emissions are growing
Evolution of the CO2 emissions coming from fossil fuels, in
million tons carbon equivalent
Source: Marland et al, 2003. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA.
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Source: UN FAO
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USA
Brazil
Africa
EU-27
India
China
Australia
UAE
279 M
847 M
398 M
483 M
189 M
294 M
452 M
1.06 B
672 M
1.3 B
3.8 M
10 M
19 M
74 M
178 M
1961-2003 Population trends. Source: FAO
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But we have only one planet
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Our planet Earth is about 51 billion hectares.
But since some is ice, desert and deep ocean, only about one quarter of it is productive (fishing grounds, forests, grazing land, crop land etc.).
This limited productive area has to be shared in order to cater to the needs of a growing world population.
67%
11%
18%
4%
Plus…..
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• We cannot manage what we do not measure!
• How can we measure the extent to which human activities exceed the limits of our planet?
So what?
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Source: Rockström et al., 2009.
Planetary Boundaries
Source: Meadows et al., 1972.
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After almost 40 years of global discussion we are still not able to address Sustainability
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Looking at the Earth as a single system: Which direction are we going?
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What is the Ecological Footprint?
The Ecological Footprint is an
environmental accounting tool that
identifies the extent to which human
activities exceed two types of
environmental limits:
• resource production
• waste absorption
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Why to measure Ecological limits?
• Goods and services at the base of human societies are all supported by functioning and healthy ecosystems
• Without measuring Ecological assets and ecosystems preconditions, it is easy for policy makers to ignore the impossibility of infinite growth on a finite planet
Sustainability means living well, within the means of nature
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Societies use resources (food, energy, etc) and produce wastes.
Nature turns wastes back into resources
Ecosystems
Biocapacity
Resources
Waste
Ecological Footprint
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ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT: ASSESSING COUNTRIES’ ECOLOGICAL BANK STATEMENTS
Biocapacity: How much area is available to us?
Ecological Footprint: How much area do we
demand?
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Input variable: flow of resource used by humans EQFYF
Y
PEF
NFrom FLOW to AREA: • YN is used to convert the consumption of a
resource flow into the correspondent amount of area locally required to produce that flow
• YF is used to scale national to world average productivity for a given land use type
• EQF is used to arrive at gha.
The Ecological Footprint is a flows indicator, though it is measured in
terms of the bioproductive land areas needed to generate such flows
(expressed in the unit of global hectares - gha).
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Footprint Biocapacity
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Imports
Exports
Production Activities:
-Agriculture
- Silviculture
- Farming
- Fishing
-Manifacturing
-etc
BIOCAPACITY
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RESEARCH QUESTION
How much of the biosphere’s regenerative capacity is directly and indirectly (i.e. embodied in trade) used by humans (namely Ecological Footprint) compared with how much is available (namely biocapacity), at both local and global scale.
MAIN MESSAGE
To promote recognition of ecological limits and safeguard the ecosystems’ preconditions (healthy forests, clean waters, clean air, fertile soils, biodiversity, etc) and life-supporting services that enable the biosphere to support mankind in the long term.
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• Every year Global Footprint Network releases an updated version of the NFA, which is based on the most up-to-date Footprint methodology
• Each edition of the NFA tracks EF and BC values for almost 200 countries (and the World), over about 5 decades (1961-2009) and with different level of aggregation:
1. Aggregate national EF and BC values (most known) 2. EF and BC values by land type 3. EF values by variable 4. EF values for all individual products 5. Values are provided both per capita and total 6. Results in both ha and gha (not for totals) 7. NEW!!! Nowcasted values till 2012
OUTCOMES: NATIONAL FOOTPRINT ACCOUNTS - NFA
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Humanity’s Ecological Footprint and biocapacity, 1961 – 2008
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Humanity’s Ecological Footprint by land type, 1961 – 2008
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Glo
bal h
ecta
res p
er
cap
ita
Built up
Carbon uptake
Fishing ground
Forest
Grazing land
Cropland
High Income Middle Income Low Income0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
High Income Middle Income Low Income
1965
1985
2005
19651985
2005
19651985 2005
1965 1985 2005 1965 1985 2005 1965 1985 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Glo
bal h
ecta
res p
er
cap
ita
Built up
Carbon uptake
Fishing ground
Forest
Grazing land
Cropland
High Income Middle Income Low Income0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
High Income Middle Income Low Income
1965
1985
2005
19651985
2005
19651985 2005
1965 1985 2005 1965 1985 2005 1965 1985 2005
Ecological Footprint by Income Groups, 1965 – 2005
Source: Galli et al., 2012
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Ecological Footprint and biocapacity by Geographic Regions
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Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
1961
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Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors
2008
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Measuring “sustainable development”
development HDI Su
sta
ina
ble
(fi
ts o
n o
ne
pla
net)
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How close are we today to attaining global sustainability?
Conventional
belief
Collapse
Sustainable
path
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Humanity’s Ecological Footprint by land type, 1961 – 2050
Source: WWF, GFN, ZSL, Living Planet Report 2012. Moore et al., 2012. Ecological Indicators 16, pp: 3-10.
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Technical Training Course
How do I calculate a
NATIONAL Footprint?
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NATIONAL FOOTPRINT ACCOUNTS FRAMEWORK