Alessandro Galli, PhD.

Ankara, Turkey March 26-27, 2014

Ecological Footprint: Technical Training Seminar

OBJECTIVES

Aims of this training are to:

• Re-engage after the launch of the Turkish Ecological Footprint report

• Build capacity on Ecological Footprint

• Present and discuss Footprint results for Turkey.

• Listen and elicit your top asks • Discuss the potential role of the

Footprint in supporting Turkish Strategic Plans and Activities

The Fish Game

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1. The fishery is only so big, and only makes so many fish each year.

The capacity of nature to provide resources and absorb wastes is not infinite.

2. More fish can be harvested each year then are born… for a short time.

We can exceed this capacity temporarily, and might not even notice (overshoot).

3. As more fish are harvested then are born, the fishery shrinks, and less are born.

Overshoot leads to degradation of the Earth’s ecosystems.

4. Eventually, the fishery shrinks so much that no more (or very few) fish are born each year. It is difficult to recover from this situation.

Once the planet’s resources become degraded, they take a very long time to recover.

5. To prevent the fishery from collapsing, and provide maximum fish for the fishermen, we need to know what Nature knows!

Information about Nature’s supply and human demand is critical for management.

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Global Overshoot

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Num

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Source: WWF, 2006

You cannot manage what you

cannot measure

OK! But what should we

measure?

Our energy demand is growing

Past trends

Expected future growth

Our emissions are growing

Evolution of the CO2 emissions coming from fossil fuels, in

million tons carbon equivalent

Source: Marland et al, 2003. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA.

Source: UN FAO

USA

Brazil

Africa

EU-27

India

China

Australia

UAE

279 M

847 M

398 M

483 M

189 M

294 M

452 M

1.06 B

672 M

1.3 B

3.8 M

10 M

19 M

74 M

178 M

1961-2003 Population trends. Source: FAO

But we have only one planet

Our planet Earth is about 51 billion hectares.

But since some is ice, desert and deep ocean, only about one quarter of it is productive (fishing grounds, forests, grazing land, crop land etc.).

This limited productive area has to be shared in order to cater to the needs of a growing world population.

67%

11%

18%

4%

Plus…..

• We cannot manage what we do not measure!

• How can we measure the extent to which human activities exceed the limits of our planet?

So what?

Source: Rockström et al., 2009.

Planetary Boundaries

Source: Meadows et al., 1972.

After almost 40 years of global discussion we are still not able to address Sustainability

Looking at the Earth as a single system: Which direction are we going?

What is the Ecological Footprint?

The Ecological Footprint is an

environmental accounting tool that

identifies the extent to which human

activities exceed two types of

environmental limits:

• resource production

• waste absorption

Why to measure Ecological limits?

• Goods and services at the base of human societies are all supported by functioning and healthy ecosystems

• Without measuring Ecological assets and ecosystems preconditions, it is easy for policy makers to ignore the impossibility of infinite growth on a finite planet

Sustainability means living well, within the means of nature

Societies use resources (food, energy, etc) and produce wastes.

Nature turns wastes back into resources

Ecosystems

Biocapacity

Resources

Waste

Ecological Footprint

ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT: ASSESSING COUNTRIES’ ECOLOGICAL BANK STATEMENTS

Biocapacity: How much area is available to us?

Ecological Footprint: How much area do we

demand?

Input variable: flow of resource used by humans EQFYF

Y

PEF

NFrom FLOW to AREA: • YN is used to convert the consumption of a

resource flow into the correspondent amount of area locally required to produce that flow

• YF is used to scale national to world average productivity for a given land use type

• EQF is used to arrive at gha.

The Ecological Footprint is a flows indicator, though it is measured in

terms of the bioproductive land areas needed to generate such flows

(expressed in the unit of global hectares - gha).

Footprint Biocapacity

Imports

Exports

Production Activities:

-Agriculture

- Silviculture

- Farming

- Fishing

-Manifacturing

-etc

BIOCAPACITY

RESEARCH QUESTION

How much of the biosphere’s regenerative capacity is directly and indirectly (i.e. embodied in trade) used by humans (namely Ecological Footprint) compared with how much is available (namely biocapacity), at both local and global scale.

MAIN MESSAGE

To promote recognition of ecological limits and safeguard the ecosystems’ preconditions (healthy forests, clean waters, clean air, fertile soils, biodiversity, etc) and life-supporting services that enable the biosphere to support mankind in the long term.

• Every year Global Footprint Network releases an updated version of the NFA, which is based on the most up-to-date Footprint methodology

• Each edition of the NFA tracks EF and BC values for almost 200 countries (and the World), over about 5 decades (1961-2009) and with different level of aggregation:

1. Aggregate national EF and BC values (most known) 2. EF and BC values by land type 3. EF values by variable 4. EF values for all individual products 5. Values are provided both per capita and total 6. Results in both ha and gha (not for totals) 7. NEW!!! Nowcasted values till 2012

OUTCOMES: NATIONAL FOOTPRINT ACCOUNTS - NFA

Humanity’s Ecological Footprint and biocapacity, 1961 – 2008

Humanity’s Ecological Footprint by land type, 1961 – 2008

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Glo

bal h

ecta

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Built up

Carbon uptake

Fishing ground

Forest

Grazing land

Cropland

High Income Middle Income Low Income0%

20%

40%

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100%

High Income Middle Income Low Income

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1985

2005

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Carbon uptake

Fishing ground

Forest

Grazing land

Cropland

High Income Middle Income Low Income0%

20%

40%

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80%

100%

High Income Middle Income Low Income

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1985

2005

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Ecological Footprint by Income Groups, 1965 – 2005

Source: Galli et al., 2012

Ecological Footprint and biocapacity by Geographic Regions

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors

1961

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors

2008

Measuring “sustainable development”

development HDI Su

sta

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(fi

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n o

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pla

net)

How close are we today to attaining global sustainability?

Conventional

belief

Collapse

Sustainable

path

Humanity’s Ecological Footprint by land type, 1961 – 2050

Source: WWF, GFN, ZSL, Living Planet Report 2012. Moore et al., 2012. Ecological Indicators 16, pp: 3-10.

Technical Training Course

How do I calculate a

NATIONAL Footprint?

NATIONAL FOOTPRINT ACCOUNTS FRAMEWORK