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Economic Lessons from the Liberalization of the German Bus MarketChristoph Gipp IGES Institut GmbHChristoph Gipp, IGES Institut GmbH
Brussels, 03.03.2016IRU Forum “Buses & Coaches at a Crossroads: Long-Distance and Innovation”
Page 1IGES Institut. A company of the IGES Group.© IGES Institut GmbH. All rights reserved.
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1. IGES at a glance
2. Boosting Long Distance Bus Market g g
3. Main Challenges for Long Distance Bus
Page 2
IGES – Consulting for Infrastructure and Health CareP i t O d & 130 E l & 35 Y f E i
1 | IGES
Private Owned & 130 Employees & 35 Years of Experience
Consulting Services for the Long Disctance Bus Sector
Market Analysis Schedules, Prices, Terminals and Stops S i L l
Consulting Services for the Long Disctance Bus Sector
Market Analysis Service Level Development of Performance Indicators
Customers and Operators Customer needs and expections Operators requirements
Long Distance Bus PlanningFrom Idea to Comissioned Service.
Route and network planning Business Cases Licensing process support
Bus Terminals and Stops
Licensing process support
Search for Locations, Potentials Functional and Service Concepts Functional and Service Concepts Operational and Financing Models
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S l t d Cli t (C lti L Di t B )
1 | IGES
Selected Clients (Consulting Long Distance Bus)
Operators and Operators AssociationsOperators and Operators AssociationsAachener Straßenbahn und Energieversorgungs-AG
Bundesverband Deutscher
Bayern Express & P. Kühn Berlin GmbH
Bundesverband Deutscher Omnibusunternehmen
Österreichische Bundesbahnen
Deutsche Bahn AG
Verband Baden-Württembergischer Omnibusunternehmer
Public / Administrative BodiesFederal Institute for Research on
Federal Transport Research on
Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR)
Transport Ministry (BMVI)
MOBILITÄT
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( ) MOBILITÄT
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2 Boosting Long Distance Bus Market2. Boosting Long Distance Bus Market
Page 6
Long Distance Transport in Germany. P i t C i t l t t t d
2 | Long Distance Transport Market
Private Car is most relevant transport mode.
Forcast: Growing Transport Volumes and Performes .
Not drawn to scale!
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Not drawn to scale!
St St f G L Di t B
2 | German Long Distance Bus Market
Step Stones of German Long Distance Bus
•DeinBus.de starts first line before the liberalization after legal dispute with DB German
2011g p
Railways.
2012•MeinFernbus launch of first line Freiburg i. Breisgau – München (April 2012).
2013
•FlixBus market entry. • National Express Germany GmbH follows with german brand city2city.•ADAC-Postbus starts as joint venture with Deutsche Post Mobility GmbH.
2014
• Market Exit: October 2014 city2city quits services.•Deinbus.de last minute prevention of bancruptcy by strategic investor.
b2014 • ADAC e.V. stops joint venture, Deutsche Post continues growth of Postbus.
• Merger of MeinFernbus Flixbus.DB AG l h d l h
2015•DB AG launches LD Bus and LD Rail strategy change.•Megabus enters German LD Bus Market.
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Number of Round Trips per Week Sextupled!A 320 LD B Li
2 | German Long Distance Bus Market
Approx. 320 LD Bus Lines.
46535000
37893706 3 96
4164
46534585
4000
4500
5000
2565 26332743
3218
357937063593
34653596
3000
3500
154116241844
2299245025512565
25582633
2000
2500
833 789 770
1102
1541
1000
1500
0
500
Sep 12
Okt 12
Jan 13
Mrz 13
Apr 13
Jun 13
Aug 13
Okt 13
Nov 13
Dez 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mrz 14
Apr 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Okt 14
Dez 14
Jan 15
Apr 15
Jul 15
Okt 15
Jan 16
Domestic Services without Airport Shuttles. Source: IGES, January 2016.
12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16
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Source: IGES, January 2016.
High Density of LD Bus Network to Connect Regions.C titi B R il i t d f ti b fit !
2 | German Long Distance Bus Market
LD Bus = 20 Million Pax p.a. LD Rail = 130 Mio Pax p.a.
Competition Bus vers. Rail instead of creating benefits!
Source: ETC 2015.
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St bili d M k t Sh LD B
2 | German Long Distance Bus Market
Stabilized Market Shares LD Bus
2%
3%
2%
2%3% MeinFernbus
Flixbus GmbH
Berlin Linien Bus
10%
Berlin Linien Bus GmbH
IC Bus (DB Fernverkehr AG)
8%
1% 10% Fernverkehr AG)
Deutsche Post Mobility GmbH
D i B d G bH71% DeinBus.de GmbH
Megabus GmbH
Deutsche Touring GmbH
Sonstige
Source: IGES, January 2016.
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Source: IGES, January 2016.
LD Bus Ticket Prices at critical level (Revenue per Pax & km).R ti f LD R il G i b f di t ti k t
2 | German Long Distance Bus Market
Reaction of LD Rail: Growing number of discount tickets.
10 €
0 12€m
0,11
0,10
0 €
0,10
0 €
0,10
0 €
0,09
3 €
089 €
0,09
2 €
0,09
2 €
,091
€
0,09
2 €
,091
€
0,09
6 €
090 €
090 €
86 €
0,10
2 €
86 €
090 €
089 €
089 €
0,10€
0,12€
uro pe
r km
0
0,0 0 0 0, 0 0, 0, 0,
0,08
0,08 0, 0,0
0,0
0,08€
pmen
t in Eu
0,05
0 €
040 €
040 €
040 €
,043
€
042 €
0,04
5 €
042 €
040 €
39 €
040 €
38 €
041 €
040 €
38 €
6 €
040 €
38 €
37 €
6 €
0,06€
ce Develop
0,0
0,0
0,0 0 0, 0 0, 0,0
0,03 0,0
0,03 0,0
0,0
0,03
0,03
6
0,0
0,03
0,03
0,03
6
0,04€
Ticket Pric
0,02€Okt 12
Apr 13
Jun 13
Aug 13
Okt 13
Nov 13
Dez 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mrz 14
Apr 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Okt 14
Dez 14
Jan 15
Apr 15
Jul 15 Okt 15
Jan 16
h i lAchsentitelNormalpreis Angebotspreis
Standard Tarif Best offer availableSource: IGES, January 2016.
Page 12
Source: IGES, January 2016.
German LD Bus completely relaunches travelling by bus. I ti t d d d t d l t
2 | German Long Distance Bus Market
Innovation trends and product development.
Today
(1) Internationalization
Crating densenetwork
( )Networt Development to EU neighborsExport of German LD Bus Brands -(Italy, BeNeLux, France, ...)network
InnovationsEasy Bike Carriage
(2) Night Bus NetworksJanuary2013
LiberalizationEasy Bike CarriageWebbased Electronic Ticketing and Sales SystemS tti St d d i
(3) Touristic LD Bus LinesSki Fun / Noth Sea & Baltic Sea Coast
2013
Setting Standards in WIFI in German Public Transport ...
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3 Main Challenges for Long Distance Bus 3. Main Challenges for Long Distance Bus
Page 14
K ki LD B T t i G
3 | Main Challenges for Long Distance Bus
Keep working on LD Bus Transport in Germany...
Framework Condition - Creating
appropriate Bus Introduction of Road charge for
?
appropriate Bus Terminal
Infrastructure Busses? Infrastructure
Bus Drivers as a Intermodal and
intramodalBus Drivers as a limited ressource
intramodalconnection of the
LD BusLD Bus
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Contact
Ch h GChristoph GippManaging Director
IGES Institut GmbHFriedrichstr. 180D-10117 BerlinD 10117 BerlinTel. +49-30-230 809 589Email: [email protected]
www.iges.com
Page 17IGES Institut. A company of the IGES Group.