economic lessons from the liberalization of the german bus … · 2016-06-02 · st st f g l di t b...

| Health Care| Mobility| Education|

Economic Lessons from the Liberalization of the German Bus MarketChristoph Gipp IGES Institut GmbHChristoph Gipp, IGES Institut GmbH

Brussels, 03.03.2016IRU Forum “Buses & Coaches at a Crossroads: Long-Distance and Innovation”

IGES Institut. A company of the IGES Group.© IGES Institut GmbH. All rights reserved.


1. IGES at a glance

2. Boosting Long Distance Bus Market g g

3. Main Challenges for Long Distance Bus

IGES – Consulting for Infrastructure and Health CareP i t O d & 130 E l & 35 Y f E i

1 | IGES

Private Owned & 130 Employees & 35 Years of Experience

Consulting Services for the Long Disctance Bus Sector

Market Analysis Schedules, Prices, Terminals and Stops S i L l

Consulting Services for the Long Disctance Bus Sector

Market Analysis Service Level Development of Performance Indicators

Customers and Operators Customer needs and expections Operators requirements

Long Distance Bus PlanningFrom Idea to Comissioned Service.

Route and network planning Business Cases Licensing process support

Bus Terminals and Stops

Licensing process support

Search for Locations, Potentials Functional and Service Concepts Functional and Service Concepts Operational and Financing Models

Page 4

S l t d Cli t (C lti L Di t B )

1 | IGES

Selected Clients (Consulting Long Distance Bus)

Operators and Operators AssociationsOperators and Operators AssociationsAachener Straßenbahn und Energieversorgungs-AG

Bundesverband Deutscher

Bayern Express & P. Kühn Berlin GmbH

Bundesverband Deutscher Omnibusunternehmen

Österreichische Bundesbahnen

Deutsche Bahn AG

Verband Baden-Württembergischer Omnibusunternehmer

Public / Administrative BodiesFederal Institute for Research on

Federal Transport Research on

Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR)

Transport Ministry (BMVI)

MOBILITÄT

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( ) MOBILITÄT


2 Boosting Long Distance Bus Market2. Boosting Long Distance Bus Market

Page 6

Long Distance Transport in Germany. P i t C i t l t t t d

2 | Long Distance Transport Market

Private Car is most relevant transport mode.

Forcast: Growing Transport Volumes and Performes .

Not drawn to scale!

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Not drawn to scale!

St St f G L Di t B

2 | German Long Distance Bus Market

Step Stones of German Long Distance Bus

•DeinBus.de starts first line before the liberalization after legal dispute with DB German

2011g p

Railways.

2012•MeinFernbus launch of first line Freiburg i. Breisgau – München (April 2012).

2013

•FlixBus market entry. • National Express Germany GmbH follows with german brand city2city.•ADAC-Postbus starts as joint venture with Deutsche Post Mobility GmbH.

2014

• Market Exit: October 2014 city2city quits services.•Deinbus.de last minute prevention of bancruptcy by strategic investor.

b2014 • ADAC e.V. stops joint venture, Deutsche Post continues growth of Postbus.

• Merger of MeinFernbus Flixbus.DB AG l h d l h

2015•DB AG launches LD Bus and LD Rail strategy change.•Megabus enters German LD Bus Market.

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Number of Round Trips per Week Sextupled!A 320 LD B Li


Approx. 320 LD Bus Lines.

46535000

37893706 3 96

4164

46534585

4000

4500

5000

2565 26332743

3218

357937063593

34653596

3000

3500

154116241844

2299245025512565

25582633

2000

2500

833 789 770

1102

1541

1000

1500

0

500

Sep 12

Okt 12

Jan 13

Mrz 13

Apr 13

Jun 13

Aug 13

Okt 13

Nov 13

Dez 13

Jan 14

Feb 14

Mrz 14

Apr 14

Jul 14

Aug 14

Sep 14

Okt 14

Dez 14

Jan 15

Apr 15

Jul 15

Okt 15

Jan 16

Domestic Services without Airport Shuttles. Source: IGES, January 2016.

12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16

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Source: IGES, January 2016.

High Density of LD Bus Network to Connect Regions.C titi B R il i t d f ti b fit !


LD Bus = 20 Million Pax p.a. LD Rail = 130 Mio Pax p.a.

Competition Bus vers. Rail instead of creating benefits!

Source: ETC 2015.

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St bili d M k t Sh LD B


Stabilized Market Shares LD Bus

2%

3%

2%

2%3% MeinFernbus

Flixbus GmbH

Berlin Linien Bus

10%

Berlin Linien Bus GmbH

IC Bus (DB Fernverkehr AG)

8%

1% 10% Fernverkehr AG)

Deutsche Post Mobility GmbH

D i B d G bH71% DeinBus.de GmbH

Megabus GmbH

Deutsche Touring GmbH

Sonstige


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LD Bus Ticket Prices at critical level (Revenue per Pax & km).R ti f LD R il G i b f di t ti k t


Reaction of LD Rail: Growing number of discount tickets.

10 €

0 12€m

0,11

0,10

0 €

0,10

0 €

0,10

0 €

0,09

3 €

089 €

0,09

2 €

0,09

2 €

,091

€

0,09

2 €

,091

€

0,09

6 €

090 €

090 €

86 €

0,10

2 €

86 €

090 €

089 €

089 €

0,10€

0,12€

uro pe

r km

0

0,0 0 0 0, 0 0, 0, 0,

0,08

0,08 0, 0,0

0,0

0,08€

pmen

t in Eu

0,05

0 €

040 €

040 €

040 €

,043

€

042 €

0,04

5 €

042 €

040 €

39 €

040 €

38 €

041 €

040 €

38 €

6 €

040 €

38 €

37 €

6 €

0,06€

ce Develop

0,0

0,0

0,0 0 0, 0 0, 0,0

0,03 0,0

0,03 0,0

0,0

0,03

0,03

6

0,0

0,03

0,03

0,03

6

0,04€

Ticket Pric

0,02€Okt 12

Apr 13

Jun 13

Aug 13

Okt 13

Nov 13

Dez 13

Jan 14

Feb 14

Mrz 14

Apr 14

Aug 14

Sep 14

Okt 14

Dez 14

Jan 15

Apr 15

Jul 15 Okt 15

Jan 16

h i lAchsentitelNormalpreis Angebotspreis

Standard Tarif Best offer availableSource: IGES, January 2016.

Page 12


German LD Bus completely relaunches travelling by bus. I ti t d d d t d l t


Innovation trends and product development.

Today

(1) Internationalization

Crating densenetwork

( )Networt Development to EU neighborsExport of German LD Bus Brands -(Italy, BeNeLux, France, ...)network

InnovationsEasy Bike Carriage

(2) Night Bus NetworksJanuary2013

LiberalizationEasy Bike CarriageWebbased Electronic Ticketing and Sales SystemS tti St d d i

(3) Touristic LD Bus LinesSki Fun / Noth Sea & Baltic Sea Coast

2013

Setting Standards in WIFI in German Public Transport ...

Page 13


3 Main Challenges for Long Distance Bus 3. Main Challenges for Long Distance Bus

Page 14

K ki LD B T t i G

3 | Main Challenges for Long Distance Bus

Keep working on LD Bus Transport in Germany...

Framework Condition - Creating

appropriate Bus Introduction of Road charge for

?

appropriate Bus Terminal

Infrastructure Busses? Infrastructure

Bus Drivers as a Intermodal and

intramodalBus Drivers as a limited ressource

intramodalconnection of the

LD BusLD Bus

Page 15

| Health Care | Mobility | Education |

Contact

Ch h GChristoph GippManaging Director

IGES Institut GmbHFriedrichstr. 180D-10117 BerlinD 10117 BerlinTel. +49-30-230 809 589Email: [email protected]

www.iges.com

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economic lessons from the liberalization of the german bus … · 2016-06-02 · st st f g l di t b...

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