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Effect of Global Change on U.S. Air Quality
Murazaki and Hess, JGR 2006
Acknowledgements:
- L. Emmons, J.F. Lamarque, J. Orlando, G. Tyndall, S. Walters, X.X. Tie
-N. Mahowald
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• Import of ozone to the U.S.
• Ozone produced over the U.S.– Repartitioning of NOy budget– Increased water vapor– Changes in clouds and photolysis rates– Changes in lightning– Changes in meteorology
• Planetary Boundary Layer• Synoptic Storms Frequency• Great Plains low-level jet
Effect of Global Change
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Methodology
• Ran MOZART For Present (1990-2000) and Future Cases (2090-2100)– Winds generated by the CSM forced w/ IPCC A1
scenarios– Emissions fixed at 1990 levels
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Simulated O3 Measured O3
Model minus Measurements
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0
20
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Western U.S.M
odel (ppbv)
EPA (ppbv)
Eastern U.S.
Figure 3. Correlation of daily maximum 8-hour surface ozone concentrations between model and measurements at EPA AIRS measurement sites in eastern U.S. (squares) and western U.S. (circles) during JJA. The east-west division is assumed to be at 100W.
Model-Measurement Correlation
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Zonal Average Future minus Control Surface O3 (JJA)
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Ozone Change (ppbv)
Figure 1.
Future minus Control Surface O3 (JJA)
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Figure 12. As in Figure 4, but for differences in 8 hour maximum ozone concentration (ppbv): (a) ozone (b) contribution of background ozone; (c) contribution from ozone produced from U.S. NOx emissions; (d), (e), and (f) shows the respective differences between the future and control simulations.
+.7% ; +2.8% +5% ; +4.1%-11.5% ; -9.7%
Ozone Imported Ozone U.S. Ozone
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What Processes Are Responsible for the Ozone Response?
1) Temperature Increases
2) Water Increases
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a) b)
Changes in NOx (ppbv) Changes in PAN (ppbv)
Repartitioning of NOy
6.3 % 4.6 % -23.3 % -22.9 %
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Water Vapor Increases
O3 + hv O(1D) + O2 O(1D) + H2O 2 OH OH + CO (+ O2 +M) HO2 + CO2 (+M) HO2 + O3 OH + 2O2 HO2 + NO NO2 + OH NO2 + hv -> NO + O O + O2 + M -> O3 + M
LOW NOx
HIGH NOx
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Vertically integrated cloud water Changes in J_O(1D) (g) from the surface to 700hPa.
Changes in Clouds
-20.7 % -28.1 % +2.8% +4.8%
(Del Genio and Wolf [2000] show observationally that the low-cloud liquid water path over the Great Plains decreases with increasing temperature due to a decrease in cloud thickness.)
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Temperature Increase V. High Increase
Water Vapor Increase V. High Increase/Decrease Synoptic Freq. Decrease High ?Background O3 Decrease High Decrease
PBLH ? V. Low ?Precip. ? V. Low ?Lightning Increase V. Low Increase
Clouds Decrease
(Low Levels) Low Increase
Circulation
Changes V. Low ?
Change Confidence O3 Response
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Mickley et al., 2004
Changes in Synoptic Frequency
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Changes in Frequency of Synoptic Systems - Confident/Uncertain
2-6 day bandpassed frequencies of O3 / CO decrease by 10% / 7.5 %O3 autocorrelation time increases from .13 to .26 at 2 days in future
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OZONE Asian CO
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b)
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Figure 14. Cumulative probability of a) daily maximum 8-hour ozone (ppbv) and b) CO (ppbv).
a)
b)
Ozone
CO
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b)
Figure 17. Same as figure 15 except at 70o W.
Ozone Export
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Figure 11. As in Figure 4, but for the difference in net ozone production (in 105 molec. cm-3 s-1).
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c)
Figure 10. As in Figure 4, but for the differences in (ppbv) (c) OH (pptv) and d) H2O2 (ppbv).
d)
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From Jacob et al, 1999: Changes in ozone concentrations over the U.S. relative to 1985 values when 25% reduction in anthropogenic NOx and NMHC are implemented with 1985 Asian emissions (left) and 2010 Asian emissions (right).
Imported Ozone versus Local Controls
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Collins et al., 2003
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Figure 7. As in Figure 4, but for the difference in vertically integrated lightning NOx production (Tg N yr-1).
Changes in Lightning
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% Stratospheric Influence
Stratospheric O3 Tracer
XNOX Methodology
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BACKGROUND OZONE U.S. Summer
Our Method Fiore et al, 13-17 LT
O3 produced outside U.S. BL
O3 not produced by U.SNOx emissions
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Jaffe et al., Geophys. Res. Letters, 2003
Mean O3 has increased along the west coast of the U.S. during Spring
Conclusion: Along the U.S. west coast, springtime O3 has increased by ≈ 0.5 ppbv/yr
Marine Boundary Layer Elevated Data Sets
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Figure 13. As in Figure 4, but for the average difference between the future and control simulations of the number of days the 8 hour maximum ozone concentration in a year is greater than 80 ppbv.
Difference in days 8-hour O3 > 80 ppbv