Extra-terrestrial Habitat Systems: Safety, Reliability,
and ResilienceJory Lyons1,
Dr. Amin Maghareh2, Audai Theinat2, Dr. Shirley Dyke2,3, Dr. Antonio Bobet2
Lyons; August 2, 2018
1 School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Purdue University2 Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University
3School of Mechanical Engineering, Purdue University
Resilient ExtraTerrestrial Habitats (RETH)
Purdue RETH Team
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purdue.edu/reth
• IntroductionBackground and Motivation Environmental HazardsDesign Approaches
•MethodologySafety, Reliability, and Resilience
•Case StudyModel RocketStrengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) Analysis
•Conclusion
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Overview
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“Can you imagine living on the moon?”
Purdue RETH
•Grand challenge to design resilient extraterrestrial habitats• Envision first Earth-independent human settlement
•Current risk-based techniques lack resilience
•Critiquing conventional reliability-based design
•Avoid catastrophic disasters • Apollo 1 fire
• Space Shuttle failures
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Background & Motivation
European Space Agency
• Temperature extremes•Hypervelocity
Meteoroids•Radiation•Moon-quakes•Atmospheric Vacuum
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Environmental Hazards
Purdue RETH
• ability for system to absorb, recover, and adapt quickly from disruption without fundamental changes in function or sacrifices in safety
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Proposed Approach: Resilience-based Design
Purdue RETH
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Current Approach: Reliability-based Design
http://blog.mindgenius.com/2011/04/risk-management-with-gordon-wyllie.html
*Simplified but lacks resilience
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Reliability-based vs Resilience-based
Purdue RETH
•Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)
Occurrence (O), Severity (S), Detection (D)Risk Priority Number (RPN = O*S*D)Criticality Number
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Reliability-Based Approaches
Stamatelatos, M. et al. (2011). Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners. 10.13140/RG.2.2.18206.13122.
•Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)Includes FMECA or FMEAFault Tree Analysis (FTA)Event-sequence Diagram (ESD)
•Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)
Helps tell which failures to fix and data to acquire
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Reliability-Based Approaches – Differences
Stamatelatos, M. et al. (2011). Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners. 10.13140/RG.2.2.18206.13122.
•Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)Uses FMECA and determines more failures and combinationsMay include partial or full FMECAQuantitative and qualitative
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Criticality – FMECA
Identify and rank importance of component to system
U.S. Department of Defense. (1980). MIL-STD-1629A, Procedures
For Performing A Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis.
Basic failure rate, 𝜆𝑝
Failure mode ratio, 𝛼
Conditional probability of failure, 𝛽
Conditional probability of detection, 𝜐
Mission phase duration, 𝑡
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Model Rocket Case Study
Jory Lyons
Jory Lyons
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Model Rocket Case Study – FMECA
Jory Lyons
4 5 5 100None
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Model Rocket Case Study – FMECA
Jory Lyons
Estimate
4 5 5 100None
0.01
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Model Rocket Case Study – FMECA
Jory Lyons
0.01
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Model Rocket Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
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Model Rocket Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
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Model Rocket Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
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Event-sequence Diagram (ESD)
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Resilient Extra-terrestrial Habitat
Purdue RETH
Strengths Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
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Reliability-based Design (FMECA/PRA) Analysis
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•Proven to be effective to determine quantitative and qualitative risks
•Accounts for catastrophic failure and hazards
• Lacks adaptability and recoverability• Inapplicable to cope with unknown hazards•May require experts and require identification of rare
hazards mixtures
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•Can determine system interdependencies
•Can be improved/incorporated in resilience framework
•May ignore some system failure modes
•May not be feasible for complex systems
• Investigated reliability and resilience-based design
• FMECA and PRA • Create partial system resilience• Can be incorporated in RETH resilience-based framework
•Make living safer and more sustainable• Resilience is the key to have safe permanent habitats
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Conclusions
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INTERNATIONALRETH WORKSHOP
Thank YouPurdue.edu/reth
Stamatelatos, Michael & Dezfuli, Homayoon & Apostolakis, G & Everline,
Chester & Guarro, Sergio & Mathias, Donovan & Mosleh, Ali & Paulos,
Todd & Riha, David & Smith, Curtis & Vessely, William & Youngblood,
Robert. (2011). Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for
NASA Managers and Practitioners. 10.13140/RG.2.2.18206.13122.
Stamatis, D. H. (2003). Failure Mode and Effect Analysis, 2nd edition. ASQ
Quality Press, Milwaukee, WI, ISBN 0-87389-598-3. Retrieved May 25,
2018, from http://www.qualitypress.asq.org
U.S. Department of Defense. (1980). MIL-STD-1629A, Procedures For
Performing A Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis.
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References
Back-Up Slides
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Purdue.edu/[email protected]
FMECA – MIL-STD-1629A
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U.S. Department of Defense. (1980). MIL-STD-
1629A, Procedures For Performing A Failure
Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis.
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Model Rocket Case Study – FMECA
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Model Rocket Case Study – FMECA
𝐶𝑚 = (𝜐)𝜆𝑝𝛼𝛽𝑡 𝐶𝑟 =
𝑛=1
𝑛
𝐶𝑚 𝑛
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
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Stamatis, D. H. (2003). Failure Mode and Effect Analysis, 2nd edition. ASQ Quality Press, Milwaukee,
WI, ISBN 0-87389-598-3. Retrieved May 25, 2018, from http://www.qualitypress.asq.org
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Model Rocket Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
(𝟎. 𝟎𝟏 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓 −(𝟎. 𝟎𝟏 ∗ 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓))
𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 = 𝑨 + 𝑩 − 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩(1−(1−0.01495)∗(1−0.0020998)∗(1−0.011979)∗(1−0.01099)
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RETH Risk Analysis (FMECA and PRA) ResultsStrengthsProven to be effective to determine quantitative and qualitative risks
Probabilistic
Determines required data
Significantly developed
Capable of utilizing all data
Past use allows less effort and brainstorming
Accounts for catastrophic failure and hazardsDetermines single-points failures
Determines small failures and cascading effects
Helps improve systems (of systems)
WeaknessesLacks adaptability and recoverability
Inapplicable to cope with unknown hazardsNot deterministic
May require experts and requires identification of rare hazards mixtures
Simplifications ignore combined failures
Takes great effort and time
FMECA necessitates team to brainstorm
OpportunitiesCan determine system interdependencies
Can use criticality more within FTA
Can use nonbinary logic and fragility curves
Conditional probability of detection
Determine more cascading effects
Can be improved/incorporated in resilience framework Can consider modularity to be resilient
Efficiency in decision matrix/FMECA
Can be easily changeable with advanced analysis
ThreatsMay ignore some system failure modesScrutiny if unexpected catastrophic failure
May not determine particular cascading effects
May not be feasible for complex systemsMay prove expensive
Requires instrumentation and time